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Post by No Offence Alan on Sept 25, 2024 9:01:13 GMT
John may well be right, but we don't really know yet. There is a great deal of difference between voting for a Tory councillor in a by-election which usually won't change the composition of the council and wanting to restore Tory government. The Blair government had some quite sharp reverses in local elections (although not as soon as this, of course) and had no trouble surviving for a long while. As Tony (Otim, not Blair) says, how the public see the new Conservative leader may have a strong impact, but even if that leader proves to be a miss rather than a hit it may not necessarily stop them gaining in local elections. And the next major set of local elections in May 2025 were mostly last fought during the "Boris Covid boom" of May 2021, so the Conservatives will be on the defensive in those. |
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Post by andrewp on Sept 25, 2024 9:13:59 GMT
John may well be right, but we don't really know yet. There is a great deal of difference between voting for a Tory councillor in a by-election which usually won't change the composition of the council and wanting to restore Tory government. The Blair government had some quite sharp reverses in local elections (although not as soon as this, of course) and had no trouble surviving for a long while. As Tony (Otim, not Blair) says, how the public see the new Conservative leader may have a strong impact, but even if that leader proves to be a miss rather than a hit it may not necessarily stop them gaining in local elections. And the next major set of local elections in May 2025 were mostly last fought during the "Boris Covid boom" of May 2021, so the Conservatives will be on the defensive in those. The next Con leader will have a tough fight on their hands to convince dimwit journalists that they will probably be losing seats in May 2025, particularly against the LDs I fancy, whilst probably still making progress from Jul 24. |
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
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Post by Sibboleth on Sept 25, 2024 9:20:31 GMT
I don't mean to be offensive (or do I?) but only on a forum largely full of current and former local activists, councillors and candidates could the broad patterns of local by-elections be considered to be of Earth-shattering importance, especially when those patterns are entirely predictable ones.
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Post by sanders on Sept 25, 2024 9:29:26 GMT
I don't mean to be offensive (or do I?) but only on a forum largely full of current and former local activists, councillors and candidates could the broad patterns of local by-elections be considered to be of Earth-shattering importance, especially when those patterns are entirely predictable ones. If they are "entirely predictable" to you, then feel free to enter the prediction competition. |
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Post by Peter Wilkinson on Sept 25, 2024 10:02:06 GMT
The Godalming result, as I predicted, is broadly in line with the GE result in Godalming & Ash, so perhaps less good for the Tories than the big swing would suggest. If we had a swing using July notionally, that would, perhaps, be more illustrative. Re: Mid Suffolk, I have heard that the best antidote to the Greens is a Green council. "Prominent Green disses Green councils."  |
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cathyc
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Post by cathyc on Sept 25, 2024 10:03:59 GMT
I don't mean to be offensive (or do I?) but only on a forum largely full of current and former local activists, councillors and candidates could the broad patterns of local by-elections be considered to be of Earth-shattering importance, especially when those patterns are entirely predictable ones. It's a forum primarily about elections. I'm not sure anyone has said the results are earth-shattering. They are not entirely predictable, at least not this early into a new government. If they are then Messrs Hill, Ladbroke and Power say hi. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 25, 2024 11:18:20 GMT
And the Godalming outcome has to be seen in the rather odd context of how 2023 was contested there (I agree Suffolk is a much more straightforward Tory advance, and maybe raises questions about how the Greens can safeguard their popularity in such areas going forward) Had there been a full slate of candidates there last year, it is possible (even if a bit of a stretch) that the Tories might have held all three seats - they would very likely have taken at least one.
In that context a gain by a dozen votes - whilst hardly a *bad* result - maybe isn't as impressive as it looks on paper.
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right
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Post by right on Sept 25, 2024 11:25:21 GMT
And the next major set of local elections in May 2025 were mostly last fought during the "Boris Covid boom" of May 2021, so the Conservatives will be on the defensive in those. The next Con leader will have a tough fight on their hands to convince dimwit journalists that they will probably be losing seats in May 2025, particularly against the LDs I fancy, whilst probably still making progress from Jul 24. It's an extra level of complexity, but journalists and political obsessives do tend to know that the atmosphere last election is very important when looking at swings. They just get confused about what they atmosphere was. And swing voters really don't care. |
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batman
Labour
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Post by batman on Sept 25, 2024 13:02:44 GMT
The Godalming result, as I predicted, is broadly in line with the GE result in Godalming & Ash, so perhaps less good for the Tories than the big swing would suggest. If we had a swing using July notionally, that would, perhaps, be more illustrative. Re: Mid Suffolk, I have heard that the best antidote to the Greens is a Green council. "Prominent Green disses Green councils." perhaps he momentarily forgot he’d joined |
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Post by sanders on Sept 25, 2024 13:12:13 GMT
"Prominent Green disses Green councils." perhaps he momentarily forgot he’d joined "I've heard it said" doesn't mean I agree with it, though in the case of Brighton & Hove, I've heard from a friend there that the Green council was bad, so maybe it's something that can be learned from. Who is this "Prominent Green". We are painting our flat currently, and Prominent Green sounds a good colour. I'm imagining a sort of phosphorescent hue. |
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Post by kevinf on Sept 25, 2024 13:18:04 GMT
I don't mean to be offensive (or do I?) but only on a forum largely full of current and former local activists, councillors and candidates could the broad patterns of local by-elections be considered to be of Earth-shattering importance, especially when those patterns are entirely predictable ones. It's a forum primarily about elections. I'm not sure anyone has said the results are earth-shattering. They are not entirely predictable, at least not this early into a new government. If they are then Messrs Hill, Ladbroke and Power say hi. Exactly. On all three points. There is usually a honeymoon period for a new Government, and even with the landslide in July, it is not happening in these by-elections. Council elections are often a portent of things to come, as seen in the run-up to the 1997 landslide. What is important is not the results in themselves but the reasons people voted Labour in the General Election just two months ago are now not inspired to do so in places like Gedling and Worthing. We need a parliamentary by-election to judge things better, and to see the longer-term trends in the polls. |
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pl
Non-Aligned
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Post by pl on Sept 25, 2024 13:47:50 GMT
It's a forum primarily about elections. I'm not sure anyone has said the results are earth-shattering. They are not entirely predictable, at least not this early into a new government. If they are then Messrs Hill, Ladbroke and Power say hi. Exactly. On all three points. There is usually a honeymoon period for a new Government, and even with the landslide in July, it is not happening in these by-elections. Council elections are often a portent of things to come, as seen in the run-up to the 1997 landslide. What is important is not the results in themselves but the reasons people voted Labour in the General Election just two months ago are now not inspired to do so in places like Gedling and Worthing. We need a parliamentary by-election to judge things better, and to see the longer-term trends in the polls. Very interesting point about parliamentary by- elections. Given the relative parliamentary strengths, there are maybe 200 Labour seats the conservatives should be able to have a very good crack at in opposition without getting into silly territory. |
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Post by minionofmidas on Sept 25, 2024 15:14:05 GMT
There's no accurate way to measure this, but if you treat the anti-Tory vote as a block in 2023, there's actually a 1.1% swing against the Tories since then... huge caveats obviously, but puts the result into some context. I worked out that in 2023, the LD candidate attracted a vote from 55% of voters, the Green from 51%, the Labour candidate from 42% and the 3x Con candidates from 39,38 and 34% of voters, so looking at it like that there was a small increase in the % of voters who voted Con. this is the only reasonable way of looking at multimember ward results btw |
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Post by swanarcadian on Sept 25, 2024 17:12:32 GMT
As I said last week, it’s nice to see Conservatives making gains after two years of unmitigated disaster. Being in opposition does have a compensatory side to it, and as someone said above, it’s brought out more campaigners, although turnout is low, as always. I’ve ended up posting here more often than before the GE, having expected to be completely put off by it. It feels less burdensome at this point.
It’s not unheard of for a new government to be denied a honeymoon period. After Mrs Thatcher came to power, Labour got back into the lead almost straight away and by May 1980 the Tories had already lost about a thousand council seats since coming out of opposition. Then Callaghan quit as Labour leader, and we all know the rest… It’s too early to judge how things will pan out before 2029, especially as opposition to Labour is coming from a variety of fronts.
Unfortunately I can’t see Conservative/Reform pacts as a realistic proposition at present, even if they cost each other seats to Labour, Lib Dems and the Greens. The English and Welsh need to catch up with the Scots and bring in PR for councils.
It’s a pity local by-elections are largely ignored by the national press, yet parliamentary ones make front page news. At the very least, broadsheet papers ought to routinely publish the results.
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Post by sanders on Sept 25, 2024 17:22:29 GMT
At the very least, broadsheet papers ought to routinely publish the results. That might help boost turnout, actually. |
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David
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Post by David on Sept 25, 2024 17:58:28 GMT
As I said last week, it’s nice to see Conservatives making gains after two years of unmitigated disaster. Being in opposition does have a compensatory side to it, and as someone said above, it’s brought out more campaigners, although turnout is low, as always. I’ve ended up posting here more often than before the GE, having expected to be completely put off by it. It feels less burdensome at this point. It’s not unheard of for a new government to be denied a honeymoon period. After Mrs Thatcher came to power, Labour got back into the lead almost straight away and by May 1980 the Tories had already lost about a thousand council seats since coming out of opposition. Then Callaghan quit as Labour leader, and we all know the rest… It’s too early to judge how things will pan out before 2029, especially as opposition to Labour is coming from a variety of fronts. Unfortunately I can’t see Conservative/Reform pacts as a realistic proposition at present, even if they cost each other seats to Labour, Lib Dems and the Greens. The English and Welsh need to catch up with the Scots and bring in PR for councils. It’s a pity local by-elections are largely ignored by the national press, yet parliamentary ones make front page news. At the very least, broadsheet papers ought to routinely publish the results. Agree. Very little attention is paid to local council by elections, except in places like this forum. But in some ways they can be a better barometer of public opinion than the occasional, very well publicised parliamentary by election (which are often seen as a glorified, temporary opinion poll). In addition they are relatively rare. We may not have a parliamentary by election for many months, whereas most weeks have local council by elections. I find them a fascinating way of judging real opinion, as opposed to opinions polls, especially when we can detect trends. And I think the recent Conservative gains in a mix of seats are becoming a trend |
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Post by robert1 on Sept 25, 2024 19:50:56 GMT
Have a look at Rallings' & Thrasher's calculation of vote share in the local elections of May 2024 and compare actual vote share at the General Election a few weeks later. Remarkably similar!!
Far better guide than opinion polls.
Yes there are local factors in many council contests but they appear possibly to be buried in the sheer quantity of by-elections.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Sept 25, 2024 20:03:00 GMT
Have a look at Rallings' & Thrasher's calculation of vote share in the local elections of May 2024 and compare actual vote share at the General Election a few weeks later. Remarkably similar!! Far better guide than opinion polls. True, they were very close - Lab 34, C 27 against the general election in GB share Lab 34.5, C 24.3. But in 2017 the local elections NEV of C 39, Lab 28 was a pretty poor guide to the election which was to follow. |
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right
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Post by right on Sept 25, 2024 20:06:50 GMT
Have a look at Rallings' & Thrasher's calculation of vote share in the local elections of May 2024 and compare actual vote share at the General Election a few weeks later. Remarkably similar!! Far better guide than opinion polls. True, they were very close - Lab 34, C 27 against the general election in GB share Lab 34.5, C 24.3. But in 2017 the local elections NEV of C 39, Lab 28 was a pretty poor guide to the election which was to follow. The discrepancy was marked. I remember us winning Tory-Labour wards we rarely come close in and then all but losing an "unlosable" General. |
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Post by robert1 on Sept 25, 2024 20:21:16 GMT
Have a look at Rallings' & Thrasher's calculation of vote share in the local elections of May 2024 and compare actual vote share at the General Election a few weeks later. Remarkably similar!! Far better guide than opinion polls. True, they were very close - Lab 34, C 27 against the general election in GB share Lab 34.5, C 24.3. But in 2017 the local elections NEV of C 39, Lab 28 was a pretty poor guide to the election which was to follow. The lack of carry over in 2017 may have had a little to do with the truly 'amazing' campaign the Tories fought, not least being the manifesto and its contents! |
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