right
Conservative
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Post by right on Sept 25, 2024 21:11:03 GMT
True, they were very close - Lab 34, C 27 against the general election in GB share Lab 34.5, C 24.3. But in 2017 the local elections NEV of C 39, Lab 28 was a pretty poor guide to the election which was to follow. The lack of carry over in 2017 may have had a little to do with the truly 'amazing' campaign the Tories fought, not least being the manifesto and its contents! It was, but the fall off was severe. The disbelief on both sides as the results started coming out was probably as much to do with the recent local elections as it was with opinion polls. Which may have shown how much credence we usually give to local elections. |
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Foggy
Non-Aligned
Yn Ennill Yma
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Post by Foggy on Sept 26, 2024 4:16:30 GMT
perhaps he momentarily forgot he’d joined Who is this "Prominent Green". We are painting our flat currently, and Prominent Green sounds a good colour. I'm imagining a sort of phosphorescent hue. Redecorating, eh? Have you considered an avocado (toast) bathroom?? |
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Post by sanders on Sept 26, 2024 5:05:31 GMT
Who is this "Prominent Green". We are painting our flat currently, and Prominent Green sounds a good colour. I'm imagining a sort of phosphorescent hue. Redecorating, eh? Have you considered an avocado (toast) bathroom?? We gave up on avocado toast in order to save up for the flat... |
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Post by heslingtonian on Sept 26, 2024 5:47:47 GMT
 Sept 25, 2024 9:31:26 GMT 1 sanders said: The Godalming result, as I predicted, is broadly in line with the GE result in Godalming & Ash, so perhaps less good for the Tories than the big swing would suggest. If we had a swing using July notionally, that would, perhaps, be more illustrative. Re: Mid Suffolk, I have heard that the best antidote to the Greens is a Green council.
Although in fairness Godalming & Ash was probably in the top five best Conservative results at the recent General Election along with Keighley, Chingford, Leicester East and Richmond Yorkshire.
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Post by robert1 on Sept 26, 2024 6:45:02 GMT
The lack of carry over in 2017 may have had a little to do with the truly 'amazing' campaign the Tories fought, not least being the manifesto and its contents! It was, but the fall off was severe. The disbelief on both sides as the results started coming out was probably as much to do with the recent local elections as it was with opinion polls. Which may have shown how much credence we usually give to local elections. Nothing is a perfect guide to other future events whether political, military, economic etc. I was asking whether opinion polls should be presumed to be the sole 'go to' guide for any upcoming general election when records clearly show they are a highly unreliable tool. |
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Post by sanders on Sept 26, 2024 6:53:10 GMT
 Sept 25, 2024 9:31:26 GMT 1 sanders said: The Godalming result, as I predicted, is broadly in line with the GE result in Godalming & Ash, so perhaps less good for the Tories than the big swing would suggest. If we had a swing using July notionally, that would, perhaps, be more illustrative. Re: Mid Suffolk, I have heard that the best antidote to the Greens is a Green council.
Although in fairness Godalming & Ash was probably in the top five best Conservative results at the recent General Election along with Keighley, Chingford, Leicester East and Richmond Yorkshire.
Add to that list Harrow East. Also, you can just quote me. If you've blocked me, unblock me. Blocking people is childish behaviour, honestly. |
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Foggy
Non-Aligned
Yn Ennill Yma
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Post by Foggy on Sept 26, 2024 6:59:05 GMT
Also add Arundel & the South Downs for the "unexpectedly large scale of victory" side, and Fylde on the "big surprise it was held at all" column.
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Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
What I need is a strong drink and a peer group.
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Post by Chris from Brum on Sept 26, 2024 6:59:29 GMT
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batman
Labour
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Post by batman on Sept 26, 2024 7:35:19 GMT
Also add Arundel & the South Downs for the "unexpectedly large scale of victory" side, and Fylde on the "big surprise it was held at all" column. it wasn’t THAT much of a surprise Fylde was held. It is extremely difficult to imagine Lytham, St Annes, Kirkham and the villages having a Labour MP - even Labour councillors are a rarity. With Menzies out of the field the Conservative hold was logical enough. |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Sept 26, 2024 8:15:23 GMT
One point not picked up is that Invergordon was a Royal Navy base for centuries. The Royal Navy has done much to save Britain but arguably the greatest contribution Invergordon made was an inadvertent one. The refusal of the longer-serving naval ratings to go to sea in September 1931 (because their pay was being cut much more than the newer recruits) led to a panic and run on the pound, which then forced the UK off the Gold Standard - which was the apocalypse the National Government had been formed to stop. In practice most economists consider the UK abandoning the Gold Standard early was the main reason the 1930s depression was not so severe in this country as in others. |
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dundas
Non-Aligned
Hope Not Hate is Lumpen MI5
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Post by dundas on Sept 26, 2024 10:23:42 GMT
perhaps he momentarily forgot he’d joined "I've heard it said" doesn't mean I agree with it, though in the case of Brighton & Hove, I've heard from a friend there that the Green council was bad, so maybe it's something that can be learned from. Who is this "Prominent Green". We are painting our flat currently, and Prominent Green sounds a good colour. I'm imagining a sort of phosphorescent hue. Mistakes were made certainly. Going to Brighton Pier to defend a council tax increase above the national average is a brave move, but not one that would earn a council of any stripe votes. The activist who engaged me on the topic was defenestrated by her lack of knowledge on the multiplier effect, incorrectly identifying me as an Accountant. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 26, 2024 12:18:51 GMT
Also add Arundel & the South Downs for the "unexpectedly large scale of victory" side, and Fylde on the "big surprise it was held at all" column. As others have said, not sure about that one. Arguably the real surprise is that it was so close, even after Menzies did his worst. For the latter category, The Wrekin and Staffordshire Moorlands were two I thought far more likely to go Labour than several that actually did. |
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Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
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Post by Khunanup on Sept 26, 2024 12:24:40 GMT
Also add Arundel & the South Downs for the "unexpectedly large scale of victory" side, and Fylde on the "big surprise it was held at all" column. Erm, I, and many others who are reasonably local to A&SD, were not at all surprised by the scale of the Conservative victory there, both because of its extreme ruralness and the fact there were much better prospects (for the Lib Dems in particular) on all sides, most of which fell. |
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nyx
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Post by nyx on Sept 26, 2024 12:53:44 GMT
Also add Arundel & the South Downs for the "unexpectedly large scale of victory" side, and Fylde on the "big surprise it was held at all" column. Erm, I, and many others who are reasonably local to A&SD, were not at all surprised by the scale of the Conservative victory there, both because of its extreme ruralness and the fact there were much better prospects (for the Lib Dems in particular) on all sides, most of which fell. It was the fourth safest Conservative seat in the country by percentage margin (after Richmond and Northallerton, Harrow East, Tonbridge). I don't think that was expected. |
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batman
Labour
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Post by batman on Sept 26, 2024 12:54:13 GMT
Arundel and South Downs usually features in a list of the ten safest Conservative seats. I remember it was in the top four when it was first contested in 1997.
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Post by Merseymike on Sept 26, 2024 13:01:43 GMT
Arundel and South Downs usually features in a list of the ten safest Conservative seats. I remember it was in the top four when it was first contested in 1997. I agree. This is a Tory banker. Harrow East is the more remarkable result. |
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Post by sanders on Sept 26, 2024 13:07:14 GMT
Arundel and South Downs usually features in a list of the ten safest Conservative seats. I remember it was in the top four when it was first contested in 1997. I agree. This is a Tory banker. Harrow East is the more remarkable result. Yes although 2022 locals suggested it. Harrow West swung to the Tories. So did the new Brent West. |
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Post by rogerg on Sept 26, 2024 13:20:24 GMT
True, they were very close - Lab 34, C 27 against the general election in GB share Lab 34.5, C 24.3. But in 2017 the local elections NEV of C 39, Lab 28 was a pretty poor guide to the election which was to follow. The lack of carry over in 2017 may have had a little to do with the truly 'amazing' campaign the Tories fought, not least being the manifesto and its contents! I'm not sure the 2024 general election campaign went any better overall for the Tories than 2017. |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Sept 26, 2024 14:08:27 GMT
In general, it seems like the pattern of results we've seen in the past month aren't radically difference from the pattern we saw in the summer of 2010. Time will tell whether it's of similar significance.
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ColinJ
Labour
Living in the Past
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Post by ColinJ on Sept 26, 2024 14:17:27 GMT
I agree. This is a Tory banker. Harrow East is the more remarkable result. Yes although 2022 locals suggested it. Harrow West swung to the Tories. So did the new Brent West. Labour's majority in 2019 was 18.1% in Harrow West, but reduced to 14.6% in 2024, so, yes, the seat did "swing to the Tories". But like so many other places, the presence of a "pro-Gaza" independent was the cause of the swing, in this case a 9.1% share of the poll. |
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