Local Council by-elections 24th/26th September 2024

[carlton43]

Sept 26, 2024 12:24:40 GMT Khunanup said:

Sept 26, 2024 6:59:05 GMT Foggy said:

Also add Arundel & the South Downs for the "unexpectedly large scale of victory" side, and Fylde on the "big surprise it was held at all" column.

Erm, I, and many others who are reasonably local to A&SD, were not at all surprised by the scale of the Conservative victory there, both because of its extreme ruralness and the fact there were much better prospects (for the Lib Dems in particular) on all sides, most of which fell.

In that context and that textual usage the better word is rurality.

[stb12]

I remember quite a few on here felt Harrow East would be against the trend due to demographic voting shifts, but the scale of the win was maybe still a surprise?

[batman]

that's about right. I was unsurprised by Bob Blackman's survival, but surprised by its scale.

[Sibboleth]

Sept 26, 2024 14:39:17 GMT batman said:

that's about right. I was unsurprised by Bob Blackman's survival, but surprised by its scale.

When the polls were at their silliest I did joke that if they ever became real (which, ftr, I did not believe) then Blackman would be one of the survivors in a Canada '93 situation. I think as a result of the influence of America people here can be a bit too obsessed with the idea of trends in anything other than a really broad sense, but sometimes there are places where, well, that's just the way things are going.

[Foggy]

Sept 26, 2024 12:53:44 GMT nyx said:

Sept 26, 2024 12:24:40 GMT Khunanup said:

Erm, I, and many others who are reasonably local to A&SD, were not at all surprised by the scale of the Conservative victory there, both because of its extreme ruralness and the fact there were much better prospects (for the Lib Dems in particular) on all sides, most of which fell.

It was the fourth safest Conservative seat in the country by percentage margin (after Richmond and Northallerton, Harrow East, Tonbridge). I don't think that was expected.

Indeed. It felt like the kind of place that would certainly stay Tory (and I predicted as such), just not with a raw five-figure majority. 

I did also have Fylde down as a hold but that was on the expectation there was no way they could fall below 150 seats. If you'd told me beforehand the Conservatives would finish on only 121 I'd definitely have marked it in red. 

[No Offence Alan]

Is this a good time to tell the prediction competition entrants that the Scottish LDs threw the kitchen sink at the Strathallan by-election?

[sanders]

Sept 26, 2024 16:41:39 GMT Foggy said:

Sept 26, 2024 12:53:44 GMT nyx said:

It was the fourth safest Conservative seat in the country by percentage margin (after Richmond and Northallerton, Harrow East, Tonbridge). I don't think that was expected.

Indeed. It felt like the kind of place that would certainly stay Tory (and I predicted as such), just not with a raw five-figure majority. 

I did also have Fylde down as a hold but that was on the expectation there was no way they could fall below 150 seats. If you'd told me beforehand the Conservatives would finish on only 121 I'd definitely have marked it in red. 

I have met someone from Lytham. He was at Oxford (mid 1960s). Fylde seems quite an elderly constituency. That doubtless helps the Tories there. 

[batman]

It is a pretty elderly constituency, particularly Lytham St Annes where not only my grandparents but other great-uncles & -aunts retired in the 60s. Other parts are not quite so elderly but there aren't that many young people there, even though perhaps it's a bit less elderly than for example Sidmouth & Budleigh Salterton down south. I do have a friend from Lytham who is much younger though, a generation below me. He lacks a northern accent & is seen as quite posh. He votes Labour (he's the son of a university acedemic) but that demographic is unusual in Lytham. My knowledge of the area, and of much of Blackpool, derives from very frequent visits to my grandparents in my childhood & early adulthood - several times a year usually. Occasionally grandma came to London too, especially if dad had an important case where she could watch him in court. She ended her days back in Manchester whence she had come, though, to be closer to close family. I remember when I was a young adult going to a coffee shop in St Annes & finding that 2 elderly ladies were Labour supporters, and being amazed - they were very rare there although Grandma usually voted Labour too.

[Davıd Boothroyd]

East Staffs Stretton has a turnout of 19.25%.

[Davıd Boothroyd]

EAST STAFFORDSHIRE Stretton

Holmes, Gerry (The Conservative Party) 1,012
McKiernan, John (Labour Party) 304
Rickard, Kelly (Green Party) 113

[andrewp]

East Staffs percentages

CON: 70.8% (+25.3)
LAB: 21.3% (-9.8)
GRN: 7.9% (New)

No IND (-23.4) as previous.

[olympian95]

Perth city is SNP gain from Labour

[timrollpickering]

Sept 26, 2024 22:29:22 GMT olympian95 said:

Perth city is SNP gain from Labour

Although should we use a better way for Scottish by-elections? This is notionally a hold.

[Davıd Boothroyd]

LUTON Barnfield

Anwar Malik (Lib Dem) 1,169
Karen Roy (Lab) 321
Ash Ali (Con) 209
Edward Carpenter (Green) 110
Marc Scheimann (Ind) 32

Turnout – 19.8%

[carolus]

Sept 26, 2024 22:29:22 GMT olympian95 said:

Perth city is SNP gain from Labour

[sanders]

Sept 26, 2024 22:24:58 GMT andrewp said:

East Staffs percentages

CON: 70.8% (+25.3)
LAB: 21.3% (-9.8)
GRN: 7.9% (New)

No IND (-23.4) as previous.

Bloody hell. I know it's Staffordshire and the Tories can get 70% there (as they did in South Staffs in 2019) but still, bloody hell. 

[olympian95]

LD gain Strahallan from Con

[carolus]

Luton, Wigmore. LD Hold

[andrewteale]

I understand that the Conservatives have gained Rhyl Trellewelyn.

[Robert Waller]

Barnfield %s
Barnfield (Luton) council by-election result:

LDEM: 63.5% (+11.4)
LAB: 17.4% (-18.8)
CON: 11.4% (-0.3)
GRN: 6.0% (+6.0)
IND: 1.7% (+1.7)

+/- 2023