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Post by sanders on Sept 28, 2024 3:36:02 GMT
I think Reform have a very committed voter base and very little attraction to anyone else Doubtless so - it's a personality cult. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,889
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 28, 2024 9:43:45 GMT
No much luck for Reform, really. Where will they make inroads? Doncaster mayoral election; maybe Co. Durham? In next years county council elections, they could end up winning a few divisions on fairly low shares of the vote. |
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Post by Peter Wilkinson on Sept 28, 2024 11:13:12 GMT
johnloony posted all the transfer figures for the Inverness by-election about a page up from here. He did so with minimal formatting, so they are a bit difficult to read, but roughly speaking (if I have read them correctly), a bit under 20% of the Green votes didn't transfer. Of the rest, the SNP got just under 50% of transfers, Labour about 30%, the Lib Dems about 20%, and the Tories a big fat zero. No I didn’t. I did it with very careful and detailed formatting, which took ages to edit and re-edit, specifically for the purpose of making it easier to read by aligning the columns. If you are not capable of appreciating my hard work and selfless efforts in providing the information (which was difficult to find in the first place) then perhaps I ought to undo the editing or just delete the whole damn thing. Sorry - I should not have described what you did as "minimal formatting", when you clearly devoted a lot of effort to getting what would otherwise have been an incomprehensible mass of figures aligned far enough that it was possible to make sense of them with only very moderate difficulty. Given the way in which you did it, the results were probably the best achievable. Because, as experience has taught me, it is effectively impossible to include tabulated data in a plain-text file without formatting workarounds, and hope that it will remain readable on another device (or indeed the one you produced it on, after you have saved and retrieved it). But Proboards' text editor does provide some possible workarounds, the least bothersome of which is probably to specify a fixed-width font (and Proboards offers Font Face " Courier New") for the tabulated data. It looks a bit ugly, but seems to do the job: Inverness Central
SNP 551 .+4 555 .+64 619 ..+5 624 ..+48 672 (-672 xxx)
Lab 479 .+2 481 .+41 522 .+26 548 .+140 688 (+241 929)
.LD 286 +15 301 .+27 328 .+81 409 .-409 xxx
Grn 158 .+4 162 -162 xxx
Con 150 +32 182 ..+0 182 -182 xxx
Ref .93 -93 xxx
non-trn +36 36 +30 66 +70 136 +221 357 (+431 788)Or, using invisible non-breaking spaces (if you know how to produce them) rather than visible dots to keep columns in proper alignment: Inverness Central
SNP 551 +4 555 +64 619 +5 624 +48 672 (-672 xxx)
Lab 479 +2 481 +41 522 +26 548 +140 688 (+241 929)
LD 286 +15 301 +27 328 +81 409 -409 xxx
Grn 158 +4 162 -162 xxx
Con 150 +32 182 +0 182 -182 xxx
Ref 93 -93 xxx
non-trn +36 36 +30 66 +70 136 +221 357 (+431 788)Alternatively, Proboards' text editor does allow the creation of proper formatted tables (the button containing a grid icon), though (despite possibly producing the best results on full-sized computer screens) this both probably requires even more effort to produce and (even more importantly) won't work well on small screens (such as phones) or quite possibly at all on screen readers. |
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Post by andrewteale on Sept 28, 2024 11:16:11 GMT
I had a go at simulating all of the Scottish results to see what would happen in an ordinary election. Cromarty Firth: 2Ind/LD/SNP, no change from 2022  Inverness Central: SNP/Lab/LD, LD gain from SNP compared with 2022  Perth City North: 2SNP/Lab, no change from 2022  Strathallan: C/LD/SNP, LD gain from C compared with 2022 
I looked into whether better candidate vote balancing could change any of these results, but the answer was no.
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Post by johnloony on Sept 28, 2024 12:17:47 GMT
No I didn’t. I did it with very careful and detailed formatting, which took ages to edit and re-edit, specifically for the purpose of making it easier to read by aligning the columns. If you are not capable of appreciating my hard work and selfless efforts in providing the information (which was difficult to find in the first place) then perhaps I ought to undo the editing or just delete the whole damn thing. Sorry - I should not have described what you did as "minimal formatting", when you clearly devoted a lot of effort to getting what would otherwise have been an incomprehensible mass of figures aligned far enough that it was possible to make sense of them with only very moderate difficulty. Given the way in which you did it, the results were probably the best achievable. Because, as experience has taught me, it is effectively impossible to include tabulated data in a plain-text file without formatting workarounds, and hope that it will remain readable on another device (or indeed the one you produced it on, after you have saved and retrieved it). But Proboards' text editor does provide some possible workarounds, the least bothersome of which is probably to specify a fixed-width font (and Proboards offers Font Face " Courier New") for the tabulated data. It looks a bit ugly, but seems to do the job: Inverness Central
SNP 551 .+4 555 .+64 619 ..+5 624 ..+48 672 (-672 xxx)
Lab 479 .+2 481 .+41 522 .+26 548 .+140 688 (+241 929)
.LD 286 +15 301 .+27 328 .+81 409 .-409 xxx
Grn 158 .+4 162 -162 xxx
Con 150 +32 182 ..+0 182 -182 xxx
Ref .93 -93 xxx
non-trn +36 36 +30 66 +70 136 +221 357 (+431 788)Or, using invisible non-breaking spaces (if you know how to produce them) rather than visible dots to keep columns in proper alignment: Inverness Central
SNP 551 +4 555 +64 619 +5 624 +48 672 (-672 xxx)
Lab 479 +2 481 +41 522 +26 548 +140 688 (+241 929)
LD 286 +15 301 +27 328 +81 409 -409 xxx
Grn 158 +4 162 -162 xxx
Con 150 +32 182 +0 182 -182 xxx
Ref 93 -93 xxx
non-trn +36 36 +30 66 +70 136 +221 357 (+431 788)Alternatively, Proboards' text editor does allow the creation of proper formatted tables (the button containing a grid icon), though (despite possibly producing the best results on full-sized computer screens) this both probably requires even more effort to produce and (even more importantly) won't work well on small screens (such as phones) or quite possibly at all on screen readers. My biggest problem was that the reply box has a differefont (and therfore different character widths) from the actual page. So I had to keep cross-checking between the two. |
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Post by Peter Wilkinson on Sept 28, 2024 13:13:57 GMT
Sorry - I should not have described what you did as "minimal formatting", when you clearly devoted a lot of effort to getting what would otherwise have been an incomprehensible mass of figures aligned far enough that it was possible to make sense of them with only very moderate difficulty. Given the way in which you did it, the results were probably the best achievable. Because, as experience has taught me, it is effectively impossible to include tabulated data in a plain-text file without formatting workarounds, and hope that it will remain readable on another device (or indeed the one you produced it on, after you have saved and retrieved it). But Proboards' text editor does provide some possible workarounds, the least bothersome of which is probably to specify a fixed-width font (and Proboards offers Font Face " Courier New") for the tabulated data. It looks a bit ugly, but seems to do the job: Or, using invisible non-breaking spaces (if you know how to produce them) rather than visible dots to keep columns in proper alignment: Alternatively, Proboards' text editor does allow the creation of proper formatted tables (the button containing a grid icon), though (despite possibly producing the best results on full-sized computer screens) this both probably requires even more effort to produce and (even more importantly) won't work well on small screens (such as phones) or quite possibly at all on screen readers. My biggest problem was that the reply box has a differefont (and therfore different character widths) from the actual page. So I had to keep cross-checking between the two. That's actually one good reason for forcing the use of a fixed-width font (at a constant font size) for anything resembling a data table - at the very worst, you can keep things vertically in line with one another simply by keeping count of where they are on each (horizontal) line. Otherwise, just make sure that font changes happen between lines, not in the middle of any individual line. |
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Post by minionofmidas on Sept 28, 2024 13:33:38 GMT
Sorry - I should not have described what you did as "minimal formatting", when you clearly devoted a lot of effort to getting what would otherwise have been an incomprehensible mass of figures aligned far enough that it was possible to make sense of them with only very moderate difficulty. Given the way in which you did it, the results were probably the best achievable. Because, as experience has taught me, it is effectively impossible to include tabulated data in a plain-text file without formatting workarounds, and hope that it will remain readable on another device (or indeed the one you produced it on, after you have saved and retrieved it). But Proboards' text editor does provide some possible workarounds, the least bothersome of which is probably to specify a fixed-width font (and Proboards offers Font Face " Courier New") for the tabulated data. It looks a bit ugly, but seems to do the job: Or, using invisible non-breaking spaces (if you know how to produce them) rather than visible dots to keep columns in proper alignment: Alternatively, Proboards' text editor does allow the creation of proper formatted tables (the button containing a grid icon), though (despite possibly producing the best results on full-sized computer screens) this both probably requires even more effort to produce and (even more importantly) won't work well on small screens (such as phones) or quite possibly at all on screen readers. My biggest problem was that the reply box has a differefont (and therfore different character widths) from the actual page. So I had to keep cross-checking between the two. And then there's the difference between pc and phone. The Cromarty Forth table is barely usable on the phone because the lines break. The Inverness table works as intended. |
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Post by swanarcadian on Sept 28, 2024 20:33:37 GMT
I had a go at simulating all of the Scottish results to see what would happen in an ordinary election. Cromarty Firth: 2Ind/LD/SNP, no change from 2022 Inverness Central: SNP/Lab/LD, LD gain from SNP compared with 2022 Perth City North: 2SNP/Lab, no change from 2022 Strathallan: C/LD/SNP, LD gain from C compared with 2022
I looked into whether better candidate vote balancing could change any of these results, but the answer was no.
Superb Andrew. I often wonder why STV almost always has to be seen as the holy grail of electoral systems amongst electoral reform advocates - I guess a lot of it is because of the academic interest that the transfers data offers, rather than the actual results or effects they produce! Certainly amongst psephologists, anyway. Amongst the manifestos of parties supporting electoral reform this year, most of them seem to advocate STV in particular - Lib Dems, SNP, Plaid Cymru, Liberal. Reform and the Greens were less clear cut about which system they prefer. The only party I noticed specifically supporting a different system - with seats allocated by the D'Hondt method - appears to be the SDP. For me personally, open party lists seem more straightforward. |
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Post by No Offence Alan on Oct 3, 2024 19:47:15 GMT
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