Local Council by-elections 24th/26th September 2024

[Tony Otim]

Sept 27, 2024 10:06:51 GMT andrewp said:

Cromarty Firth first preferences. 

LD 481   20.3% (-7.6)
SNP 403  17 (-12.1)
Coghill 326  13.7 new
Rattray 323  13.6 new
Cross 285  12.0 new
Godley-Mackenzie 162  6.8 new
McCaffery 97  4.1 new
Green 89  3.7 (+0.8)
Lab 77  3.2 (-1.0)
Con 57  2.4 (-4.3)
RefUK 52  3.2 new
RefUK 23


Coghill ( Ind) and Edmondson (LD) elected

[Tony Otim]

Sept 27, 2024 10:51:03 GMT andrewp said:

Inverness Central

SNP 551
Lab 479
LD 286
Green 158
Con 150
RefUK 93

Labour elected after transfers. Lab hold

SNP 32.1 (-9.2)
Lab 27.9 (+3.8)
LD 16.7 (+10.3)
Grn 9.2 (+1.7)
Con 8.7 (-4.1)
Ref 5.4 (New)

[andrewp]

Still waiting for the actual numbers from Rhyl, but the net summary of the 12 results this week is

Con 4 (+2)
LD 4 (+1)
Ind 2 (=)
Lab 1 (-3)
SNP 1 (+1)

[Sandy]

Sept 27, 2024 11:00:29 GMT Tony Otim said:

Sept 27, 2024 10:51:03 GMT andrewp said:

Inverness Central

SNP 551
Lab 479
LD 286
Green 158
Con 150
RefUK 93

Labour elected after transfers. Lab hold

SNP 32.1 (-9.2)
Lab 27.9 (+3.8)
LD 16.7 (+10.3)
Grn 9.2 (+1.7)
Con 8.7 (-4.1)
Ref 5.4 (New)

Poor result for the SNP imo. Inverness Central should be a very strong ward for them.

[swanarcadian]

Sept 27, 2024 7:49:48 GMT andrewp said:

Sept 27, 2024 7:36:55 GMT right said:

Three swallows don't make a summer, but was post 1997 like this? I remember for the first year or so that the local government gains (although they were there) seemed to be quite meager, although we did notice the flow of Labour gains stop (as with the Uxbridge by-election that year) and of course there were a large number of council seat gains from the general election turnout. Even 1998's round of locals seemed to be a bit of a damp squib and it was only in 1999 that the tempo of good Tory gains seemed to be increasing.

I think it was bish that said that it felt very much like 2010 for Labour, but that was a very quick recovery compared to ours in 1997.

Well, slightly to my surprise, in the first 3 months from 1 May 1997- 31 July 1997, there were 8 Con gains from Lab, plus also 8 Con gains from LD. ( although there were 5 LD gains from Con too) In the rest of 1997 there were then a further 14 Con gains from Lab

So this is perhaps similar so far, although it’s probably worth pointing out that the Tory local gov position in 1997 was quite a bit worse than 2024 so perhaps there was more scope for gains then.

There was more scope for gains then. The other thing to bear in mind this time is that the opposition is more fragmented than it was then. Four parties polled above 10 percent in this year’s general election; so the more gains the Conservatives can secure in by-elections, the more we should be able to assert our position as the clear challengers to the Labour government over the other opposition parties.

[andrewp]

An update on the statistics for the by elections held in this local electoral year, following the May 2024 local elections.

Following the 11 contests for 12 seats held on the 24th and 26th September, there have now been 129 ordinary by elections for 131 seats since 2nd May 2024.

The Conservatives have defended 30- Held 20 and lost 10- 6 to Labour, 1 to the Lib Dems, 1 to RefUK and 2 to Independents (retention rate 67%) and have gained 12

Labour have defended 71- held 58 and lost 13- 7 to the Conservatives, 3 to the Greens, 2 to the Lib Dems and 1 to the SNP ( retention rate 82% ) and have gained 10

The Lib Dems have defended 18- held 12 and lost 6 - 2 each to Labour and the Conservatives and 1 each to the SNP and an Independent ( retention rate 67%) and have gained 3

The Greens have defended 3, held 2 and lost 1 to the Conservatives, ( retention rate 67%) and have gained 3

RefUK have gained. 1 seat

SNP have gained 2 seats

There have been 9 by elections for a seat previously won by an Independent, 5 were won by another Independent, 2 were gained by the Conservatives and 2 by Labour, and an Independent has gained 3 seats

Overall totals and net changes since May

Con 32 (+2)
Lab 68 (-3)
LD 15 (-3)
Green 5 (+2)
Ind 8 (-1)
RefUK 1 (+1)
SNP 2 (+2)

[robert1]

Rhyl

Con     188
Lab      127
PC          36
LD          19

I had become so frustrated waiting for the figures I had tried the council. Went on their site first 'Recent Election Results' started at the General and went backwards from there to 2016!

Called and was on hold for over 5 minutes (lovely soft music) during which I was told that 'bulky waste removals are not available atm'. Assumed it was others from Vote UK trying to get through that had caused the delay in response 

Then CCHQ came to my rescue.

[jamesdoyle]

GWBWI

Ooh, so tight at the top (and not too wide a spread at the bottom)

Con +159
LDm +152
PCy -3
Lab -32
SNP -48
Grn -56

[batman]

many would think that a bit generous to Labour.

[johnloony]

It was difficult to find the result for Cromary Firth, but I found it eventually so now I will type it here one at a time (I will edit as I go)
TL;DR = Coghill overtook the SNP candidate in round 5 with help from other Independent votes
The numbers in brackets are the transfers which the stupid computer did after the two councillors had already been elected

. . . . . . . . . . .Edmondson (LD) 481 +0 481 +12 493 …+5 498 +33 531 +13 544 +13 557 +16 573 +68 641 +73 714 (+92 806)
. . . . . . . . . . MacDonald (SNP) 403 +1 404 +0 404 .. . ..+2 406 +11 417 +34 451 +6 457 +41 498 +12 510 +40 550 (-550 xxx)
. . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . Coghill (Ind) 326 +1 327 .+7 334 …+9 343 .+2 345 . .+8 353 +26 379 +37 416 +96 512 +173 685 (+115 800)
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Rattray (Ind) 323 +0 323 +9 332 . . +6 338 . . +8 346 .+4 350 +31 381 +41 422 [phone] xxx
. . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . .Cross (Ind) 285 +0 285 . .+6 291 +12 303 . .+2 305 . .+5 310 ..+6 316 [phone] xxx
. . . . Godley-Mackenzie (Ind) 162 +0 162 ..+4 166 …+4 170 . +2 172 . +9 181 [phone] xxx
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . McCaffery (Ind) 97 +1 98 ..+3 101 . . .+4 105 . . +2 107 +2 109 -109 xxx
. . . . . . . . . Barrowman (Green) 89 .+0 89 ….+0 89 …+1 90 . . +5 95 . . .-95 xx
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Perera (Lab) 77 .+0 77 ..+5 82 . . . . +1 83 . . -83 xx
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Munro (Con) 57 +2 59 -59 xx
. . Kim Hanning-Jackson (Ref) 52 +18 70 ....+2 72 . . .-72 xx
Roland Hanning-Jackson (Ref) 23 -23 xx

. . . . . . . . . .. . . . .non-transferable — +0 . .0 +11 11 . . . +28 39 . .+18 57 +20 77 ..+15 92 +33 125 +96 221 +205 426 (+343 769)

Total 2,375
Quota 792

[The Bishop]

Sept 27, 2024 11:56:16 GMT batman said:

many would think that a bit generous to Labour.

Maybe but two of their three losses this week were effectively unholdable, which makes Rhyl the main disappointment - and the Inverness result was creditable.

[batman]

Yes there was no way either Perth City N or the Godalming ward could realistically have been held.

[batman]

Mind you the E Staffs result was dire.

[The Bishop]

Sept 27, 2024 9:43:26 GMT Tony Otim said:

We'll wait for the Highland results, but it does look like Scotland is notably worse for the Conservatives and better for Labour than England and Wales at the moment. There may be reasons for this such as the SNP collapse more favouring Labour and more Reform candidates in Scotland.

Until this week, Labour hadn't been doing too badly in Welsh byelections since the GE either.

And also, the Tories might not have made at least some of their recent gains in England if Reform candidates had been standing. They apparently intend to field quite a few in next years county council elections - and will be helped in that by the divisions, as in Scotland, being quite large. If so, it will be interesting to watch.

[iainbhx]

That 11.5% turnout in Rhyl is awful.

[batman]

Bearing in mind the national opinion polls, which at present continue to show Labour ahead of the Conservatives (albeit not that many polls, but they all show the same leader and one is very recent), the narrative that the Tories are simply getting their vote out better than Labour at the moment is one that people can reasonably pass on.

[robert1]

Sept 27, 2024 14:29:32 GMT batman said:

Bearing in mind the national opinion polls, which at present continue to show Labour ahead of the Conservatives (albeit not that many polls, but they all show the same leader and one is very recent), the narrative that the Tories are simply getting their vote out better than Labour at the moment is one that people can reasonably pass on.

Given that the polls were so far out at the GE and there is no evidence that they have changed any of their practices, why do you cite them as if they are accurate? 

[johnloony]

Inverness Central

SNP 551 .+4 555 .+64 619 .+5 624 . +48 672 (-672 xxx)
.Lab 479 ..+2 481 +41 522 +26 548 +140 688 (+241 929)
..LD 286 +15 301 +27 328 [phone] xxx
Grn 158 ..+4 162 -162 xxx
Con 150 +32 182 +0 182 -182 xxx
Ref . . . 93 -93 xx

non-trans +36 36 +30 66 +70 136 +221 357 (+431 788)

[batman]

Sept 27, 2024 14:58:07 GMT robert1 said:

Sept 27, 2024 14:29:32 GMT batman said:

Bearing in mind the national opinion polls, which at present continue to show Labour ahead of the Conservatives (albeit not that many polls, but they all show the same leader and one is very recent), the narrative that the Tories are simply getting their vote out better than Labour at the moment is one that people can reasonably pass on.

Given that the polls were so far out at the GE and there is no evidence that they have changed any of their practices, why do you cite them as if they are accurate? 

you think the Tories are ahead? Well you're entitled to think that if you like. They were out but the average Labour lead of the last 4 polls is still nearly 7%. Two of them are from More In Common & they were closer to the actual gap between Lab & Con than most

[Adam Gray]

I've started doing a monthly by-elections report. Here's September's: www.agrayarea.info/results/202409.pdf

This is taking a lot of time so I'm not sure how long I'm going to stick with them!