andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Sept 26, 2024 23:32:01 GMT
Perth and Kinross Strathallan
Conservative: 1045
Lib Dem: 978
SNP: 568
Labour: 366
Reform UK: 194
Green: 107
LD elected on stage 6
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Sept 26, 2024 23:51:04 GMT
Herefordshire, Credenhill
Ind Taylor 201
Ind Jones 150
Con 108
RefUK 89
LD 27
Lab 19
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 27, 2024 6:27:41 GMT
Thought LDs would take Strathallan. No Offence Alan said so. Predicted Tories would gain Rhyl. A lot of retirees in North Wales. Rhyl has a decent Tory vote, IIRC. |
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YL
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Post by YL on Sept 27, 2024 6:33:23 GMT
Transfer plots from Ballot Box Scotland:   The pattern of Reform UK transfers is rather different in the two wards. In Perth City North, they split rather evenly between the three other candidates left, with the SNP actually narrowly coming out on top; in Strathallan they heavily favoured the Tories as you might expect. |
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Sept 27, 2024 6:36:46 GMT
Thought LDs would take Strathallan. No Offence Alan said so. Predicted Tories would gain Rhyl. A lot of retirees in North Wales. Rhyl has a decent Tory vote, IIRC. Rhyl is quite a Labour town. In 2017 ( a good Tory year), Labour won 9 councillors to 2 Conservatives in Rhyl. In 2022, it was 11-1. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 27, 2024 6:39:40 GMT
Thought LDs would take Strathallan. No Offence Alan said so. Predicted Tories would gain Rhyl. A lot of retirees in North Wales. Rhyl has a decent Tory vote, IIRC. Rhyl is quite a Labour town. In 2017 ( a good Tory year), Labour won 9 councillors to 2 Conservatives in Rhyl. In 2022, it was 11-1. Maybe I am thinking of Prestatyn? But either way this is decent for the blues in Wales. I think you get Scousers retiring to North Wales, which might explain why some of these seats are not as good for the Tories as they were in the 80s or 1992. Merseymike might know better, however. |
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YL
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Post by YL on Sept 27, 2024 6:52:09 GMT
Rhyl has a reputation for being a bit of a dump, and it has the two most deprived LSOAs in Wales. However those are in Rhyl West ward, and Trellewelyn ward is less extreme: its southern part is quite deprived though not on the scale of Rhyl West, but its northern part is in an LSOA which is below the Welsh median for deprivation.
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ian48
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Post by ian48 on Sept 27, 2024 7:20:59 GMT
Re Rhyl: I haven't seen any figures yet, but the local MS has tweeted that they won with over 50% of the vote, which would be an impressive result (subject to turnout figures etc).
A couple of things to bear in mind are that the local Labour-led council is pretty unpopular due to a new refuse and recycling project that hasn't gone well. Plus as many have pointed out, while Rhyl is very deprived, this ward isn't the town centre and contains quite a lot of bungalow retirees, who likely aren't that well off, despite not being all that poor either. The WFA cut would likely affect a fair few people in places like this.
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Sept 27, 2024 7:22:37 GMT
The percentages in Rhyl were apparently
Con 50.8%
Lab 34.3%
Plaid 9.7%
LD 5.1%
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ian48
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Post by ian48 on Sept 27, 2024 7:32:56 GMT
AT's top vote figures in 2022 were 40.2% for Labour and 17.7% for the Tories. Obviously complicated by no Ind standing this time, but I guess that's a 33.1% increase for the Tories and 5.6% decrease for Labour.
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Post by batman on Sept 27, 2024 7:33:38 GMT
Good insight from ian48. I would venture to suggest that the ward probably has a good number of the kind of pensioners who will be worst affected by the WFA cut.
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right
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Post by right on Sept 27, 2024 7:36:55 GMT
Three swallows don't make a summer, but was post 1997 like this? I remember for the first year or so that the local government gains (although they were there) seemed to be quite meager, although we did notice the flow of Labour gains stop (as with the Uxbridge by-election that year) and of course there were a large number of council seat gains from the general election turnout. Even 1998's round of locals seemed to be a bit of a damp squib and it was only in 1999 that the tempo of good Tory gains seemed to be increasing.
I think it was bish that said that it felt very much like 2010 for Labour, but that was a very quick recovery compared to ours in 1997.
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Post by batman on Sept 27, 2024 7:43:34 GMT
The 1998 elections were generally good for Labour, especially in London and even in 1999 Castle Point council was held, which proved beyond Labour in the next general election - although the 1999 results were less abject for the Tories than those of 1995. John Chanin is right; with the Tories out of office voters are much more prepared to elect Tory councillors at the moment, especially it seems in non-Tory authorities.
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Sept 27, 2024 7:49:48 GMT
Three swallows don't make a summer, but was post 1997 like this? I remember for the first year or so that the local government gains (although they were there) seemed to be quite meager, although we did notice the flow of Labour gains stop (as with the Uxbridge by-election that year) and of course there were a large number of council seat gains from the general election turnout. Even 1998's round of locals seemed to be a bit of a damp squib and it was only in 1999 that the tempo of good Tory gains seemed to be increasing. I think it was bish that said that it felt very much like 2010 for Labour, but that was a very quick recovery compared to ours in 1997. Well, slightly to my surprise, in the first 3 months from 1 May 1997- 31 July 1997, there were 8 Con gains from Lab, plus also 8 Con gains from LD. ( although there were 5 LD gains from Con too) In the rest of 1997 there were then a further 14 Con gains from Lab So this is perhaps similar so far, although it’s probably worth pointing out that the Tory local gov position in 1997 was quite a bit worse than 2024 so perhaps there was more scope for gains then. |
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iain
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Post by iain on Sept 27, 2024 8:00:37 GMT
I also seem to remember a string of good local by-elections for the Lib Dems just after the 2015 GE - interpreted by some of us as a degree of remorse from the electorate, but likely just our remaining supporters becoming more motivated to turn out after the shellacking the party had just received. I’d interpret this Tory ‘bounce’ similarly unless and until we see evidence otherwise (coming in May at the earliest).
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Post by certain on Sept 27, 2024 8:09:57 GMT
Perth city is SNP gain from Labour Actually elected with an overall majority of 84 at Stage 4. SNP 1015, Lab 374, Con 323, Ref. 234. |
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Sept 27, 2024 8:15:46 GMT
Another interesting comparison with 1997 is the volume of by elections. October 2024 with 56 local by elections feels busy. In the month of July 1997 there were 89
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 27, 2024 8:20:44 GMT
Another interesting comparison with 1997 is the volume of by elections. October 2024 with 56 local by elections feels busy. In the month of July 1997 there were 89 But we're comparing apples and oranges. Two months post-election vs three months. Were they held sooner back then? Re: Wales, 50% is Rhyl-y good for the Tories. They don't have any MPs in Wales for the first time since 2001. I agree about electing Tories in non-Tory councils, which actually bodes well for their chances of preventing the Lib Dems win overall control of Elmbridge when that has several by-elections soon. |
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Post by certain on Sept 27, 2024 8:33:58 GMT
Perth and Kinross Strathallan Conservative: 1045 Lib Dem: 978 SNP: 568 Labour: 366 Reform UK: 194 Green: 107 LD elected on stage 6 Lib Dem actually elected at Stage 5 by 1509 votes to 1206. Majority 303. |
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Post by phil156 on Sept 27, 2024 8:54:00 GMT
Herefordshire, Credenhill Ind Taylor 201 Ind Jones 150 Con 108 RefUK 89 LD 27 Lab 19 Anyone working out the percentages on this one please. The turnout was 22.2% |
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