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Post by manchesterman on Sept 27, 2024 8:55:45 GMT
Rhyl is quite a Labour town. In 2017 ( a good Tory year), Labour won 9 councillors to 2 Conservatives in Rhyl. In 2022, it was 11-1. Maybe I am thinking of Prestatyn? But either way this is decent for the blues in Wales. I think you get Scousers retiring to North Wales, which might explain why some of these seats are not as good for the Tories as they were in the 80s or 1992. Merseymike might know better, however. As someone who lives "just down the road" (comparatively speaking), you are right that Prestatyn is more small-c conservative than Rhyl which, as others have pointed out, is a somewhat run-down old seaside town. I think the main point though is that it does have quite a high proportion of less wealthy pensioners too [people retiring to the coast for the 'sea air' etc but attracted by comparatively lower-cost housing]. So I think this result can largely - even exclusively - be put down to Labour's WFA debacle. I expected an anti-Labour surge but felt that the protest vote would be more dissipated across the other parties, so I predicted Labour to narrowly hang on via a divided opposition. It seems that the Tories campaigned stronger and better than the others and took the vast majority of protest votes though. |
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Post by carolus on Sept 27, 2024 8:55:50 GMT
Another interesting comparison with 1997 is the volume of by elections. October 2024 with 56 local by elections feels busy. In the month of July 1997 there were 89 But we're comparing apples and oranges. Two months post-election vs three months. Were they held sooner back then? Re: Wales, 50% is Rhyl-y good for the Tories. They don't have any MPs in Wales for the first time since 2001. I agree about electing Tories in non-Tory councils, which actually bodes well for their chances of preventing the Lib Dems win overall control of Elmbridge when that has several by-elections soon. Bear in mind that the number of councils (and hence councillors) has dropped significantly in that time - at a quick count (I am almost certainly making some errors) we've lost at least 67 councils. |
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Post by batman on Sept 27, 2024 9:03:12 GMT
Herefordshire, Credenhill Ind Taylor 201 Ind Jones 150 Con 108 RefUK 89 LD 27 Lab 19 Anyone working out the percentages on this one please. The turnout was 22.2% Ind Taylor 33.8% Ind Jones 25.3% C 18.2% RefUK 15.0% LD 4.5% Lab 3.2% |
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Sept 27, 2024 9:06:47 GMT
Perth Strathallan first preference percentages
Con 32.1% (-14.5)
LD 30% (+18.6)
SNP 17.4% (-17.6)
Lab 11.2% (new)
REfUK 6% (new)
Green 3.3% (-3.7)
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Post by phil156 on Sept 27, 2024 9:18:50 GMT
Anyone working out the percentages on this one please. The turnout was 22.2% Ind Taylor 33.8% Ind Jones 25.3% C 18.2% RefUK 15.0% LD 4.5% Lab 3.2% Thankyou Andrew when home I work out hopefully what the gains/loss is on the Con & LD share as its the only ones we can do from the 2023 election |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 27, 2024 9:19:25 GMT
Three swallows don't make a summer, but was post 1997 like this? I remember for the first year or so that the local government gains (although they were there) seemed to be quite meager, although we did notice the flow of Labour gains stop (as with the Uxbridge by-election that year) and of course there were a large number of council seat gains from the general election turnout. Even 1998's round of locals seemed to be a bit of a damp squib and it was only in 1999 that the tempo of good Tory gains seemed to be increasing. I think it was bish that said that it felt very much like 2010 for Labour, but that was a very quick recovery compared to ours in 1997. Yes, the Tories were making fairly regular council byelection gains by the autumn of 1997 - despite Labour (unlike now) being streets ahead in the polls. It is perhaps because of the latter that the former is now mostly forgotten. They then made decent progress in the 1998 elections, and substantially so in 1999. |
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Post by timrollpickering on Sept 27, 2024 9:20:30 GMT
Another interesting comparison with 1997 is the volume of by elections. October 2024 with 56 local by elections feels busy. In the month of July 1997 there were 89 How many more council seats were there then? It's my gut instinct that unitarisation and general reductions have reduced the number of seats overall. Also how many were caused by the councillor's election to Parliament? (Okay that data may not be easily to hand 27 years on.) |
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Post by batman on Sept 27, 2024 9:20:48 GMT
Ind Taylor 33.8% Ind Jones 25.3% C 18.2% RefUK 15.0% LD 4.5% Lab 3.2% Thankyou Andrew when home I work out hopefully what the gains/loss is on the Con & LD share as its the only ones we can do from the 2023 election I'm not Andrew lol. Not when I last looked anyway |
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Sept 27, 2024 9:22:22 GMT
Ind Taylor 33.8% Ind Jones 25.3% C 18.2% RefUK 15.0% LD 4.5% Lab 3.2% Thankyou Andrew when home I work out hopefully what the gains/loss is on the Con & LD share as its the only ones we can do from the 2023 election It’s Con -15.4% LD -10.5% and for Ind Taylor +20.7% |
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Sept 27, 2024 9:23:04 GMT
Thankyou Andrew when home I work out hopefully what the gains/loss is on the Con & LD share as its the only ones we can do from the 2023 election I'm not Andrew lol. Not when I last looked anyway That’s unfortunate for you 😜😂 |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 27, 2024 9:25:43 GMT
Three swallows don't make a summer, but was post 1997 like this? I remember for the first year or so that the local government gains (although they were there) seemed to be quite meager, although we did notice the flow of Labour gains stop (as with the Uxbridge by-election that year) and of course there were a large number of council seat gains from the general election turnout. Even 1998's round of locals seemed to be a bit of a damp squib and it was only in 1999 that the tempo of good Tory gains seemed to be increasing. I think it was bish that said that it felt very much like 2010 for Labour, but that was a very quick recovery compared to ours in 1997. Well, slightly to my surprise, in the first 3 months from 1 May 1997- 31 July 1997, there were 8 Con gains from Lab, plus also 8 Con gains from LD. ( although there were 5 LD gains from Con too) In the rest of 1997 there were then a further 14 Con gains from Lab So this is perhaps similar so far, although it’s probably worth pointing out that the Tory local gov position in 1997 was quite a bit worse than 2024 so perhaps there was more scope for gains then. Up to a point, though by any normal standards both 2023 and 2024 were pretty dreadful years for them. |
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Sept 27, 2024 9:27:45 GMT
Turnout in Highland
Inverness Central 20.3%
Cromarty Firth 24.6%
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mkc
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Post by mkc on Sept 27, 2024 9:30:02 GMT
Luton Wigmore
LD 749
Ind 209
Con 151
Lab 137
Grn 125
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 27, 2024 9:31:58 GMT
I think it was bish that said that it felt very much like 2010 for Labour, but that was a very quick recovery compared to ours in 1997. Just for the record, that was EAL not me  |
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Post by iainbhx on Sept 27, 2024 9:33:19 GMT
Good insight from ian48. I would venture to suggest that the ward probably has a good number of the kind of pensioners who will be worst affected by the WFA cut. When I looked at the census profile the ward was younger thank thought it would be. However, there has been a lot of new builds in the ward over the last few years. |
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on Sept 27, 2024 9:43:26 GMT
We'll wait for the Highland results, but it does look like Scotland is notably worse for the Conservatives and better for Labour than England and Wales at the moment. There may be reasons for this such as the SNP collapse more favouring Labour and more Reform candidates in Scotland.
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Sept 27, 2024 10:06:51 GMT
Cromarty Firth first preferences.
LD 481
SNP 403
Coghill 326
Rattray 323
Cross 285
Godley-Mackenzie 162
McCaffery 97
Green 89
Lab 77
Con 57
RefUK 52
RefUK 23
Coghill ( Ind) and Edmondson (LD) elected
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Post by jamesdoyle on Sept 27, 2024 10:17:25 GMT
Cromarty Firth first preferences. LD 482 SNP 403 Coghill 326 Rattray 323 Cross 285 Godley-Mackenzie 162 McCaffery 97 Green 89 Lab 77 Con 57 RefUK 52 RefUK 23 Coghill ( Ind) and Edmondson (LD) elected So RefUK didn't quite get their balancing right. |
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Post by johnloony on Sept 27, 2024 10:33:14 GMT
It will be fun to see how many of the RefUK votes were transferred to the other RefUK candidate
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Sept 27, 2024 10:51:03 GMT
Inverness Central
SNP 551
Lab 479
LD 286
Green 158
Con 150
RefUK 93
Labour elected after transfers. Lab hold
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