Local Council by-elections 24th/26th September 2024

[greenman]

That's an 18.8% upswing for the Conservatives in Thurston and a 7.8% downswing for the second tier Green from 2023. The Greens previously held one Thurston seat, but gained the second in 2023.

[carlton43]

No Labour candidate in either and Conservatives might well have failed in both.

Reform paper candidate in both and Conservatives would have failed in both.

Anti Labour pacts and Conservative-Reform pacts start to look likely because of a radically different current dynamic.

[minionofmidas]

Vote Labour, get Conservative

Just like the GE then (ducks, hides)

[John Chanin]

Now that the Conservative government, which everyone was tired of, is gone, we can see an immediate and really quite large upsurge in Conservative fortunes at a local level. Conservatives should take heart from this. There is a large well of basic underlying support to be tapped.

I don't think this is anything to do with media fluff about gifts and pension supplements - rather it is something more fundamental. I think our contributors to the prediction competition haven't caught up yet.

[pl]

Sept 25, 2024 6:09:58 GMT John Chanin said:

Now that the Conservative government, which everyone was tired of, is gone, we can see an immediate and really quite large upsurge in Conservative fortunes at a local level. Conservatives should take heart from this. There is a large well of basic underlying support to be tapped.

I don't think this is anything to do with media fluff about gifts and pension supplements - rather it is something more fundamental. I think our contributors to the prediction competition haven't caught up yet.

The Conservative gains against the Greens are also interesting. Mid Suffolk yesterday and last week the two Hertford TC gains, where the Greens topped the polls in 2023 (albeit one seat was from Labour). It looks like the Conservative -> Green switchers in 2019-July 2024 are far from a permanent realignment.

There's also considerable evidence that Conservative campaigns have far more helpers and are far more active than before the GE.

[robert1]

For whatever reasons, two of the more surprising gains of the year.

[batman]

I don’t find the Godalming result that surprising, although I predicted a narrow LD win without great confidence, instead of the narrow Conservative win that eventuated. And it was very narrow. For a long while the Tories were very dominant in Godalming and the opposition resurgence is quite recent. The Suffolk result is more surprising, but it’s a village ward in a Green-controlled authority and it may be down to entirely local factors, though I don’t know the area and could be wrong.

[andrewp]

Percentages and changes

Mid Suffolk

Con 49.2% (+18.8)
Green 44% (-10.6)
Lab 6.7% (-0.3)

No LD from before

Waverley - with the big caveat of the ‘progressive alliance’ last time- had the LDs stood 3 candidates last year, these percentages would look very different.

Con 40.6% (+20.7)
LD 40% (+10.7)
Green 10.9% (-16.3)
Lab 8.5% (-14.1)

[right]

Sept 25, 2024 6:09:58 GMT John Chanin said:

Now that the Conservative government, which everyone was tired of, is gone, we can see an immediate and really quite large upsurge in Conservative fortunes at a local level. Conservatives should take heart from this. There is a large well of basic underlying support to be tapped.

I don't think this is anything to do with media fluff about gifts and pension supplements - rather it is something more fundamental. I think our contributors to the prediction competition haven't caught up yet.

And more so than post 1997

The rebound isn't Keir's fault, but the speed of it probably is. If for nothing more than not being Blair.

[right]

Sept 25, 2024 7:24:08 GMT pl said:

Sept 25, 2024 6:09:58 GMT John Chanin said:

Now that the Conservative government, which everyone was tired of, is gone, we can see an immediate and really quite large upsurge in Conservative fortunes at a local level. Conservatives should take heart from this. There is a large well of basic underlying support to be tapped.

I don't think this is anything to do with media fluff about gifts and pension supplements - rather it is something more fundamental. I think our contributors to the prediction competition haven't caught up yet.

The Conservative gains against the Greens are also interesting. Mid Suffolk yesterday and last week the two Hertford TC gains, where the Greens topped the polls in 2023 (albeit one seat was from Labour). It looks like the Conservative -> Green switchers in 2019-July 2024 are far from a permanent realignment.

There's also considerable evidence that Conservative campaigns have far more helpers and are far more active than before the GE.

Might just be Tories turning out and anti-Tories not so much

[carlton43]

Sept 25, 2024 7:48:22 GMT robert1 said:

For whatever reasons, two of the more surprising gains of the year.

Not at all.  It was the Green advance and gains that had been the 'surprise'.  We are now reverting to normality after a short term blip.

[certain]

Sept 25, 2024 6:09:58 GMT John Chanin said:

Now that the Conservative government, which everyone was tired of, is gone, we can see an immediate and really quite large upsurge in Conservative fortunes at a local level. Conservatives should take heart from this. There is a large well of basic underlying support to be tapped.

I don't think this is anything to do with media fluff about gifts and pension supplements - rather it is something more fundamental. I think our contributors to the prediction competition haven't caught up yet.

I think it has a great deal to do with both. You should get out more!

[Tony Otim]

Sept 25, 2024 7:58:53 GMT andrewp said:

Waverley - with the big caveat of the ‘progressive alliance’ last time- had the LDs stood 3 candidates last year, these percentages would look very different.

Con 40.6% (+20.7)
LD 40% (+10.7)
Green 10.9% (-16.3)
Lab 8.5% (-14.1)

There's no accurate way to measure this, but if you treat the anti-Tory vote as a block in 2023, there's actually a 1.1% swing against the Tories since then... huge caveats obviously, but puts the result into some context.

[michaelarden]

Sept 25, 2024 7:58:53 GMT andrewp said:

Percentages and changes

Mid Suffolk

Con 49.2% (+18.8)
Green 44% (-10.6)
Lab 6.7% (-0.3)

No LD from before

Waverley - with the big caveat of the ‘progressive alliance’ last time- had the LDs stood 3 candidates last year, these percentages would look very different.

Con 40.6% (+20.7)
LD 40% (+10.7)
Green 10.9% (-16.3)
Lab 8.5% (-14.1)

That Conservative share increase has nothing to do with any progressive alliance though.

[Tony Otim]

A few further thoughts:
- Conservatives are clearly benefitting from differential turnout and more enthusiasm and motivation again. This may or may not last. I do wonder if in some ways they are currently benefitting from being effectively leaderless and directionless - a blank slate for voters - and whether it may become more difficult for them when they actually have a new leader who has to hold differing parts of the right wing coalition together.
- As far as Mid Suffolk goes, I wonder if the Conservatives having a much stronger candidate (to quote Andrew's preview: "The defending Green Party candidate this time is Oscar Barrick-Cook, who has recently completed his A-levels and works for an independent menswear brand. The Conservatives have reselected Harry Richardson, who was their ward councillor here in 2019–23 and was deputy leader of Mid Suffolk council from 2022 until he lost his seat last year.") may also have been a factor.

[Tony Otim]

Sept 25, 2024 8:25:04 GMT michaelarden said:

Sept 25, 2024 7:58:53 GMT andrewp said:

Percentages and changes

Mid Suffolk

Con 49.2% (+18.8)
Green 44% (-10.6)
Lab 6.7% (-0.3)

No LD from before

Waverley - with the big caveat of the ‘progressive alliance’ last time- had the LDs stood 3 candidates last year, these percentages would look very different.

Con 40.6% (+20.7)
LD 40% (+10.7)
Green 10.9% (-16.3)
Lab 8.5% (-14.1)

That Conservative share increase has nothing to do with any progressive alliance though.

It does - because if you treat the progressive alliance as a block last time rather than 3 separate parties, then the Conservative vote share was actually much higher.

[sanders]

The Godalming result, as I predicted, is broadly in line with the GE result in Godalming & Ash, so perhaps less good for the Tories than the big swing would suggest. If we had a swing using July notionally, that would, perhaps, be more illustrative. Re: Mid Suffolk, I have heard that the best antidote to the Greens is a Green council.

[andrewp]

Sept 25, 2024 8:14:43 GMT Tony Otim said:

Sept 25, 2024 7:58:53 GMT andrewp said:

Waverley - with the big caveat of the ‘progressive alliance’ last time- had the LDs stood 3 candidates last year, these percentages would look very different.

Con 40.6% (+20.7)
LD 40% (+10.7)
Green 10.9% (-16.3)
Lab 8.5% (-14.1)

There's no accurate way to measure this, but if you treat the anti-Tory vote as a block in 2023, there's actually a 1.1% swing against the Tories since then... huge caveats obviously, but puts the result into some context.

I worked out that in 2023, the LD candidate attracted a vote from 55% of voters, the Green from 51%, the Labour candidate from 42% and the 3x Con candidates from 39,38 and 34% of voters, so looking at it like that there was a small increase in the % of voters who voted Con.

[stodge]

Sept 25, 2024 6:09:58 GMT John Chanin said:

Now that the Conservative government, which everyone was tired of, is gone, we can see an immediate and really quite large upsurge in Conservative fortunes at a local level. Conservatives should take heart from this. There is a large well of basic underlying support to be tapped.

I don't think this is anything to do with media fluff about gifts and pension supplements - rather it is something more fundamental. I think our contributors to the prediction competition haven't caught up yet.

I think it's a big jump to say "large well of basic underlying support" after less than three months out of office.

The Waverley result was unusual as in 2023, Labour, the Liberal Democrats and the Greens each stood single candidates as part of an anti-Conservative deal in the Borough. The numbers then suggested a lot of vote splitting which you can't do in a single seat contest. 

Those who voted Conservative in 2023 were the core who would come out for the party in any circumstances and of course the motivation of the anti-Conservative group is much less so it's less there are a lot of people waiting to vote Tory again rather than those who voted against the Conservatives in the early 2020s not being so willing to do so again - the turnout in Binscombe & Charterhouse went from 42% to 31% so a lot of abstention as well.

In 1998 the Conservatives gained 1300 seats but it didn't have any significance and in 2001 they were routed at the General Election.

In our much more fragmented politics, each local contest is going to be unique - will we see active Reform candidates, which we didn't have yesterday and as Farage seems to want and what will that do to Conservative votes? 

I do think we will see much better Conservative performances in the forthcoming local council by-elections (I'd be surprised if we didn't) but it will be interesting to see if it is a genuine increase in Conservative support or, as I suspect, the core Conservative vote counting more against a fragmented and unmotivated anti-Conservative opposition. I'd be looking at turnout numbers in particular - post 1997 we saw very low turnouts which allowed the Conservative core to win seats but in the end showed there weren't many conversions to the Conservative cause which was demonstrated in 2001.

[batman]

John may well be right, but we don't really know yet. There is a great deal of difference between voting for a Tory councillor in a by-election which usually won't change the composition of the council and wanting to restore Tory government. The Blair government had some quite sharp reverses in local elections (although not as soon as this, of course) and had no trouble surviving for a long while. As Tony (Otim, not Blair) says, how the public see the new Conservative leader may have a strong impact, but even if that leader proves to be a miss rather than a hit it may not necessarily stop them gaining in local elections.