Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,892
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Post by Tony Otim on Sept 22, 2024 10:46:09 GMT
Tuesday 24th September...
WAVERLEY DC; Godalming Binscombe & Charterhouse (Lab resigned) Candidates: BARRATT, James Crosthwaite (Liberal Democrat) FARADAY, David Brian Foster (Green) HUSSEINI, Daniel (Conservative) KNIGHT, Ben (Labour) 2023: LD 1377; Grn 1280; Lab 1061; Con 984, 954, 860 Daniel Husseini was the 3rd Tory here last year. The Green elected here last year is now Independent after supporting tactical voting for the Lib Dems in the General Election. Current Council: LD 22; Farnham Res 13; Con 10; Lab & Aligned Ind 2 (1 Lab, 1 Ind); Unaligned Ind 2; 1 vacancy A Labour defence in Surrey is a rare thing. When was the last by-election Labour were defending in that county? I believe that, since Hunt won the seat, he may have carried that ward or got close to it. I wonder how much of that ward is people working at Charterhouse School, and how they vote? Obviously it's an independent school, but still, some of the staff may well vote Labour. The close-ish result for first place last time may suggest one of the centre or centre left parties, or the Greens may coalesce around the other to beat the Tories. That said, if Hunt carried the ward, and if the WFP issue is especially salient in that corner of the Home Counties, then the Tories may win. The abnsece of Reform may help them a bit, albeit despite the fact that Waverley isn't Reform-friendly, whereas I could see them doing OK in a by-election in Spelthorne. I think you've got to look at the last result as largely a LD-Grn-Lab pact vs 3 Cons. Obviously that vote splits 3 ways now, so one of the three needs to capture a very large proportion of it to stand a chance. Again, both from last year and the recent GE, the Lib Dems are clearly best placed to do so and the question is whether they can. A Labour hold is probably by some distance the least likely outcome. |
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Post by sanders on Sept 22, 2024 13:28:37 GMT
A Labour defence in Surrey is a rare thing. When was the last by-election Labour were defending in that county? I believe that, since Hunt won the seat, he may have carried that ward or got close to it. I wonder how much of that ward is people working at Charterhouse School, and how they vote? Obviously it's an independent school, but still, some of the staff may well vote Labour. The close-ish result for first place last time may suggest one of the centre or centre left parties, or the Greens may coalesce around the other to beat the Tories. That said, if Hunt carried the ward, and if the WFP issue is especially salient in that corner of the Home Counties, then the Tories may win. The abnsece of Reform may help them a bit, albeit despite the fact that Waverley isn't Reform-friendly, whereas I could see them doing OK in a by-election in Spelthorne. I think you've got to look at the last result as largely a LD-Grn-Lab pact vs 3 Cons. Obviously that vote splits 3 ways now, so one of the three needs to capture a very large proportion of it to stand a chance. Again, both from last year and the recent GE, the Lib Dems are clearly best placed to do so and the question is whether they can. A Labour hold is probably by some distance the least likely outcome. I agree. I hope the Greens can win there, but the GE does set it up as a bit of yellow vs blue shootout. We shall see if they can pull it off. I think the Tories may keep it just because of the pact not being a thing for this by-election (though it worked very well when it worked). |
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Post by lackeroftalent on Sept 22, 2024 17:24:05 GMT
I think you've got to look at the last result as largely a LD-Grn-Lab pact vs 3 Cons. Obviously that vote splits 3 ways now, so one of the three needs to capture a very large proportion of it to stand a chance. Again, both from last year and the recent GE, the Lib Dems are clearly best placed to do so and the question is whether they can. A Labour hold is probably by some distance the least likely outcome. I agree. I hope the Greens can win there, but the GE does set it up as a bit of yellow vs blue shootout. We shall see if they can pull it off. I think the Tories may keep it just because of the pact not being a thing for this by-election (though it worked very well when it worked). I would imagine the fallout with the expulsion of Steve Williams over attempting to withdraw as a general election candidate in favour of the Lib Dems has made the chances of a Green gain here pretty unlikely. |
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Post by sanders on Sept 22, 2024 17:35:59 GMT
I agree. I hope the Greens can win there, but the GE does set it up as a bit of yellow vs blue shootout. We shall see if they can pull it off. I think the Tories may keep it just because of the pact not being a thing for this by-election (though it worked very well when it worked). I would imagine the fallout with the expulsion of Steve Williams over attempting to withdraw as a general election candidate in favour of the Lib Dems has made the chances of a Green gain here pretty unlikely. I expect you are right, but the Labour vote may collapse in the Greens' favour if not the Lib Dems. I would favour the Tories currently, however. |
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Post by Robert Waller on Sept 22, 2024 21:14:51 GMT
Not sure if it's been mentioned anywhere, but I believe the Labour councillor elected in 2023 was Nick Palmer. MP for Broxtowe 1997-2010.
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batman
Labour
Posts: 12,358 
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Post by batman on Sept 22, 2024 21:28:45 GMT
It has been mentioned, but not recently & not in this thread.
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Post by timrollpickering on Sept 23, 2024 10:32:43 GMT
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,892
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Post by Tony Otim on Sept 23, 2024 11:19:59 GMT
OP now updated to include this. |
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Post by andrewteale on Sept 23, 2024 11:48:07 GMT
At least I can crib from the multiple Stretton ward previews I've done in the past. |
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clive
Non-Aligned
Posts: 35
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Post by clive on Sept 23, 2024 12:54:21 GMT
HIGHLAND UA; Cromarty Firth x2 (Highland Ind and LD resigned) Candidates: BARROWMAN, Ryan (Green) COGHILL, Sinclair (Independent) CROSS, Richard James (Independent) EDMONDSON, John (Liberal Democrat) GODLEY-MACKENZIE, Brideen (Independent) HANNING JACKSON, Kim (Reform UK) HANNING JACKSON, Roland (Reform UK) MacDONALD, Odette (SNP) McCAFFERY, Tina (Independent) MUNRO, Innes (Conservative) PERERA, Michael (Labour) RATTRAY, Martin (Independent) 2022: SNP 1127; LD 1079; Ind 679, 283, 122, 45; Con 261; Lab 162; Grn 112 2017: INd 1108, 405, 322 (Rattray), 108; SNP 801, 579; Con 346; LD 278; Lab 155 The 2 independents elected in 2022 were the 2 SNP councillors elected in 2017. Martin Rattray has stood here previously, as independent in 2017, having been Lib Dem cllr for the ward on previous boundaries 2007-17. He stood for the Lib Dems in Inverness Central in 2022. Tina McCaffery also stood here as independent back in 2012. Michael Perera (Lab) stood in the Sept 23 by-election in Tain and Easter Ross and was the Labour candidate for Inverness, Skye & West Ross-shire (which doesn’t include this ward) at the General Election. Just been having a look at the preference profile for this ward from 2022. If we rerun the count for two seats, they go to the Lib Dems and the SNP: eliminating all candidates other than the top three gives LD 1346 SNP 1248 Ind (Munro) 1047. The SNP and the Lib Dems both clearly undernominated. If the Lib Dems had gone for two seats, then their second candidate would have picked up the Conservative transfers and won. If the SNP had gone for two seats and the Lib Dems hadn't, then the SNP probably get two but there might still have been a seat for the second independent (Morley-Smith) if the SNP fail to balance their candidates. Rerunning the Inverness Central 2022 count for one seat gives SNP 1456 Lab 1270. This should be an interesting test of what happens if you run 2 candidates in this sort of situation. In theory reform have definitely over nominated. |
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Post by kevinf on Sept 23, 2024 16:29:31 GMT
Not sure if it's been mentioned anywhere, but I believe the Labour councilor elected in 2023 was Nick Palmer. MP for Broxtowe 1997-2010. One of the nicest guys in politics. |
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swanarcadian
Conservative & Unionist
Posts: 2,651
Member is Online
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Post by swanarcadian on Sept 23, 2024 16:36:45 GMT
Not sure if it's been mentioned anywhere, but I believe the Labour councilor elected in 2023 was Nick Palmer. MP for Broxtowe 1997-2010. One of the nicest guys in politics. A regular contributor to politicalbetting as well. |
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iang
Lib Dem
Posts: 1,813
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Post by iang on Sept 23, 2024 20:10:12 GMT
And has occasionally contributed here
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Post by phil156 on Sept 24, 2024 7:44:26 GMT
OP now updated to include this. On the Council website it has 1 Con & 1 Lab so on the 2023 should the Lab figure be in bold |
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Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
What I need is a strong drink and a peer group.
Posts: 9,729
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Post by Chris from Brum on Sept 24, 2024 8:30:20 GMT
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Post by phil156 on Sept 24, 2024 10:41:24 GMT
They are both counting tonight
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Post by phil156 on Sept 24, 2024 14:20:20 GMT
Thursday elections
They all count on the day except Highland - Friday morning
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Post by Adam Gray on Sept 24, 2024 22:41:18 GMT
Conservative councillor on twitter claiming the Tories have gained Thurston
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Sept 24, 2024 22:44:16 GMT
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Sept 24, 2024 22:46:53 GMT
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