Local Council by-elections 16th 19th September 2024

[iang]

Bromsgrove is the first Lib Dem gain since at least polling day in the general election. Knew we were targetting it, but good to get over the line for once in terms of recent months

[phil156]

Sept 20, 2024 5:09:09 GMT minionofmidas said:

Sept 20, 2024 0:34:54 GMT phil156 said:

Here we all are awaiting Stockton. There is always one that comes last

full numbers from St Neots too

     Ind  531
     LD   426
    Con  420
    Ind    125
    Lab     77
     Grn    45
Turnout   18.9%

[evergreenadam]

Sept 20, 2024 4:42:18 GMT robert1 said:

The objection to pedestrianising for me (and a very large number of others) is how you find transport if you are disabled. Come out of any of the stores on a walking stick or crutches and then discover you need to get to ..... for a bus or taxi. No consideration of the disabled, the elderly etc. From my own experience on crutches the tube stations are a long way away. I tried it

The majority of Oxford Street is already restricted to buses and taxis only, between Orchard Street and Tottenham Court Road. So pedestrianisation would mostly impact the elderly, the disabled, bus users, cyclists etc.

Many bus routes have already been removed from Oxford Street in an anti-bus crusade started by the Tories and continued by the present Mayor, seriously impacting east-west travel and trade in the shops. There is no alternative east-west route that avoids Oxford Street, apart from perhaps Wigmore Street, so bus travel becomes very unattractive across a swathe of Central London.

Once buses are removed, if you have difficulty walking it’s an especially long slep to the nearest point where a north-south bus route crosses Oxford Street. Marble Arch where buses would be relegated to is a hideous traffic gyratory with subways, the worst place to try to find a bus stop. Marble Arch and Oxford Circus tube stations have no inclusive access. Only Bond Street and Tottenham Court Road stations have inclusive access as a result of the Elizabeth Line works.

Then there is the problem of what to do with the multiple small streets that cross Oxford Street north-south. If you close them it restricts access to the residential and commercial properties in the huge hinterland either side of Oxford Street. Not insurmountable but a sensitive issue with those who vote in the Wesr End.

Pedestrianisation is only the start, the means to do so through a Mayoral Development Corporation means Westminster CC would be stripped of its planning powers within a defined area. The Mayor would decide all planning applications - so expect more demolition, taller and bigger buildings. Local residents will be ignored and the Mayor will decide how the considerable revenue from planning obligations will be spent. The property developers will be rubbing their hands with glee. Have you seen Stratford or North Acton recently?

[Tony Otim]

Fairfield:
Con 1291, 1181
Lab 528, 496
Ref 344, 304
Ind 110
Grn 62
LD 45, 43
No Desc 11

[iainbhx]

Sept 20, 2024 3:55:30 GMT batman said:

The Bromsgrove loss is not very surprising, but the extent of it is a shocker. Labour does often struggle there and has a habit of rarely holding support for long except in some traditionally stronger parts in the south of the town. It’s not been a good couple of weeks for the party or government and a grip needs to be restored.

Well, it should be a bit of a shocker, because Sidemoor has, along with Charford, been about as reliable for Labour as you get in Bromsgrove in fact back when it was Bromsgrove West it was unopposed. Losing is bad there, losing to Third is very bad for this ward.

[batman]

The result in Stockton is poor for Labour too, though I never thought for one moment the ward could be gained either partially or wholly. There's a rather odd pattern going on in the north-east south of Tyneside; Labour actually seems to be doing worst in the more urban areas and best in the less urban ex-mining ones at present. Although S Middlesbrough & E Cleveland and Darlington, one a predominantly urban & the other an almost entirely urban seat, were both gained, the swings were well below the national average, and Labour also missed out on a possible (though difficult) gain in Stockton W although the boundaries were very unhelpful to us there. And yet we gained Bishop Auckland, mostly not a very urban seat at all, on a pretty large swing and generally did pretty well in the Durham UA area. Even in Hartlepool (again an almost entirely urban seat) the swing was below the national average, though that would have been somewhat influenced by the intervening by-election in all likelihood.

[andrewp]

An update on the statistics for the by elections held in this local electoral year, following the May 2024 local elections.

Following the 9 elections for 10 seats held on the 16th and 19th September, there have now been 118 ordinary by elections for 119 seats since 2nd May 2024.

The Conservatives have defended 28- Held 19 and lost 9- 6 to Labour, 1 to RefUK and 2 to Independents (retention rate 68%) and have gained 9

Labour have defended 67- held 57 and lost 10, 5 to the Conservatives, 3 to the Greens and 2 to the Liberal Democrats ( retention rate 85%) and have gained 10

The Lib Dems have defended 15, held 9 and lost 6 - 2 each to Labour and the Conservatives and 1 each to the SNP and an Independent ( retention rate 60%) and have gained 2

The Greens have defended 2, held 2 ( retention rate 100%) and have gained 3

RefUK have gained. 1 seat

SNP have gained 1 seat

There have been 7 by elections for a seat previously won by an Independent, 3 were won by another Independent, 2 were gained by the Conservatives and 2 by Labour, and an Independent has gained 3 seats

Overall totals and net changes since May

Con 28 (=)
Lab 67 (=)
LD 11 (-4)
Green 5 (+3)
Ind 6 (-1)
RefUK 1 (+1)
SNP 1 (+1)

Of which, Overall totals and changes since the GE on Jul 4

Con 9 (+2)
Lab 22 (-3)
LD 4 (-2)
Green 2 (+1)
Ind 3 (+1)
SNP 1 (+1)

[andrewp]

Stockton Fairfield percentages

Con 54% (+11.7)
Lab 22,1% (-4.5)
RefUK 14.4% (+6.4)
Ind 4.6% ( new)
Green 2.6% ( new)
LD 1.9% ( new)
ND 0.5% ( new)

No other Ind from before

[michaelarden]

Sept 20, 2024 8:19:06 GMT andrewp said:

An update on the statistics for the by elections held in this local electoral year, following the May 2024 local elections.

Following the 9 elections for 10 seats held on the 16th and 19th September, there have now been 118 ordinary by elections for 119 seats since 2nd May 2024.

The Conservatives have defended 28- Held 19 and lost 9- 6 to Labour, 1 to RefUK and 2 to Independents (retention rate 68%) and have gained 9

Labour have defended 67- held 57 and lost 10, 5 to the Conservatives, 3 to the Greens and 2 to the Liberal Democrats ( retention rate 85%) and have gained 10

The Lib Dems have defended 15, held 9 and lost 6 - 2 each to Labour and the Conservatives and 1 each to the SNP and an Independent ( retention rate 60%) and have gained 2

The Greens have defended 2, held 2 ( retention rate 100%) and have gained 3

RefUK have gained. 1 seat

SNP have gained 1 seat

There have been 7 by elections for a seat previously won by an Independent, 3 were won by another Independent, 2 were gained by the Conservatives and 2 by Labour, and an Independent has gained 3 seats

Overall totals and net changes since May

Con 28 (=)
Lab 67 (=)
LD 11 (-4)
Green 5 (+3)
Ind 6 (-1)
RefUK 1 (+1)
SNP 1 (+1)

Of which, Overall totals and changes since the GE on Jul 4

Con 9 (+2)
Lab 22 (-3)
LD 4 (-2)
Green 2 (+1)
Ind 3 (+1)
SNP 1 (+1)

I think the post July figures are the most significant and we should probably reset the municipal cycle from then.

[hullenedge]

Sept 20, 2024 8:10:18 GMT batman said:

The result in Stockton is poor for Labour too, though I never thought for one moment the ward could be gained either partially or wholly. There's a rather odd pattern going on in the north-east south of Tyneside; Labour actually seems to be doing worst in the more urban areas and best in the less urban ex-mining ones at present. Although S Middlesbrough & E Cleveland and Darlington, one a predominantly urban & the other an almost entirely urban seat, were both gained, the swings were well below the national average, and Labour also missed out on a possible (though difficult) gain in Stockton W although the boundaries were very unhelpful to us there. And yet we gained Bishop Auckland, mostly not a very urban seat at all, on a pretty large swing and generally did pretty well in the Durham UA area. Even in Hartlepool (again an almost entirely urban seat) the swing was below the national average, though that would have been somewhat influenced by the intervening by-election in all likelihood.

Very interesting. Last night's Hartlepool result was good for Labour.

I've posted this before but no harm to repeat:-

beyondthetopline.substack.com/p/forget-the-party-spin-what-does-history

It is a pity that this chap has ceased posting at the mo. Pretty sure that he's posted on this forum.

Bottom line - Labour underperform at local elections especially by-elections and definitely when in office. This phenomenon was spotted 60 years ago and given that the profile of the average local government voter hasn't changed that much it is still relevant.

[sanders]

Hartlepool was indeed a good result. "People underestimated Hartelpool" and they underestimated Labour. Reform 2024 are not the Conservatives in 2021.

[jamesdoyle]

GWBWI

I guess that's why they call it for the blues.

Con +204
LDm +92
Grn +12
Lab -94

Pretty good all round for the Cons, bar St Neots, and pretty bad for Lab, albeit the poor results partly balanced off by Hartlepool, Cornwall and Harrow Road. LibDem score built around Bromsgrove. Meh week for the Greens.

[andrewp]

Lab vote share drops this week

Bromsgrove -29.2
Westminster, Harrow Road -27.6
Cornwall -19.8
Worthing -19.2
Gedling -12.3
Westminster West End -10.5
Hartlepool -7
Stockton -4.5

[iain]

Sept 20, 2024 8:10:18 GMT batman said:

The result in Stockton is poor for Labour too, though I never thought for one moment the ward could be gained either partially or wholly. There's a rather odd pattern going on in the north-east south of Tyneside; Labour actually seems to be doing worst in the more urban areas and best in the less urban ex-mining ones at present. Although S Middlesbrough & E Cleveland and Darlington, one a predominantly urban & the other an almost entirely urban seat, were both gained, the swings were well below the national average, and Labour also missed out on a possible (though difficult) gain in Stockton W although the boundaries were very unhelpful to us there. And yet we gained Bishop Auckland, mostly not a very urban seat at all, on a pretty large swing and generally did pretty well in the Durham UA area. Even in Hartlepool (again an almost entirely urban seat) the swing was below the national average, though that would have been somewhat influenced by the intervening by-election in all likelihood.

I think it's less about urban v rural and more to do with the fact that there was a clear Teesside effect at the GE (the results in Redcar and Middlesbrough were also very underwhelming, and as you say the Hartlepool result wasn't that fantastic either if you discount the by-election). I think this can clearly be put down to Ben Houchen and the fact that the Tories poured money into his projects. Whatever the efficacy of what he did, people in this area felt like the 'levelling up' promise had actually delivered to an extent, something not replicated anywhere else in the country.

[sanders]

Sept 20, 2024 9:50:51 GMT iain said:

Sept 20, 2024 8:10:18 GMT batman said:

The result in Stockton is poor for Labour too, though I never thought for one moment the ward could be gained either partially or wholly. There's a rather odd pattern going on in the north-east south of Tyneside; Labour actually seems to be doing worst in the more urban areas and best in the less urban ex-mining ones at present. Although S Middlesbrough & E Cleveland and Darlington, one a predominantly urban & the other an almost entirely urban seat, were both gained, the swings were well below the national average, and Labour also missed out on a possible (though difficult) gain in Stockton W although the boundaries were very unhelpful to us there. And yet we gained Bishop Auckland, mostly not a very urban seat at all, on a pretty large swing and generally did pretty well in the Durham UA area. Even in Hartlepool (again an almost entirely urban seat) the swing was below the national average, though that would have been somewhat influenced by the intervening by-election in all likelihood.

I think it's less about urban v rural and more to do with the fact that there was a clear Teesside effect at the GE (the results in Redcar and Middlesbrough were also very underwhelming, and as you say the Hartlepool result wasn't that fantastic either if you discount the by-election). I think this can clearly be put down to Ben Houchen and the fact that the Tories poured money into his projects. Whatever the efficacy of what he did, people in this area felt like the 'levelling up' promise had actually delivered to an extent, something not replicated anywhere else in the country.

Possibly the fact that metro Mayor Ben Houchen is far more popular than PM Keir Starmer in the Tees Valley. Stockton West didn't even vote Labour. 

[The Bishop]

The point about pedestrianising Oxford Street is that some locals may not like the idea now (the evidence suggests it is quite popular more generally) but once it happens most people will quickly get used to it and soon any idea of reversing the measure will be for the birds.

If that had been Labour's only loss this week, I would not have been worried at all.

[carlton43]

The July GE result was a deserved triumph for Labour and an effective reset for many political dials. But I did suggest in that very week that this triumph was based on reaction against the Conservatives far more than overt enthusiasm for Labour as had been the case for first term Blair. So, I expected either 'No Honeymoon' or a very short one. The solid and stolid administration forming was practical and looked pre-planned and far more competent than had been the shambolic Conservative administration. Good start.

Then the filing cabinet slammed shut on the Boris and Liz fiasco and a more normal service was resumed. The reptile media started to look for trouble and found it on old posts of hurty words, a slum landlord, and a rather surprising appetite for 'free stuff' by the Starmers. This will go on ceaselessly and be unfair and dominate much of the casual conversations on buses, in pubs and on the terraces. It won't get better and may well get much worse.

This current crop of results in the locals will continue and the Conservatives will steadily build back an ascendancy in local government. The spoilers may be Green and Reform intrusions that deplete the poll for the majors. The LD star will flicker and fade as it returns to its normal default irrelevance.

The trick for Labour is not to respond or to change course and just rely on the massive cushion of majority. But it will tend to respond and to worry and to lose direction unless the few adults at the top keep a firm grip (as at the GE) and slap down all forms of dissent very hard. Looks interesting again.

[Tony Otim]

This has clearly been the best week for the Conservatives for a long time. What is somewhat less clear is how much this is down to a real recovery in support and how much to Labour taking a real hit. St Neots and the Norfolk results last week are perhaps more suggestive of the latter, but there will be more evidence from Con-LD and Con-Grn battles in the coming weeks. They will however be encouraged by how little further cut through Reform managed in Stockton.

For Reform it's still not really happening despite the polling and the absence of a Tory in a Hartlepool.

A poor set of results for Labour, but they won't be panicking yet. They've clearly front-loaded some unpopular measures with their big majority. They're also somewhat fortunate that May's council election is mainly the counties and seats that were up in 2021, which was a good year for the Conservatives, so potential losses and corresponding negative headlines are more limited.

The Lib Dems will happy with Bromsgrove, not much else for them this week, but nothing else was likely apart from St Neots which was maybe a little disappointing.

Greens - there wasn't really much interesting on paper this week and that turned out to be the case.

[ricmk]

I think the Lib Dems will be disappointed with St Neots. I know a lot of effort went into it, and the Ind/Con split meant a low-ish percentage would win it.

[andrewp]

Sept 20, 2024 10:59:00 GMT Tony Otim said:

This has clearly been the best week for the Conservatives for a long time. What is somewhat less clear is how much this is down to a real recovery in support and how much to Labour taking a real hit. St Neots and the Norfolk results last week are perhaps more suggestive of the latter, but there will be more evidence from Con-LD and Con-Grn battles in the coming weeks. They will however be encouraged by how little further cut through Reform managed in Stockton.

For Reform it's still not really happening despite the polling and the absence of a Tory in a Hartlepool.

A poor set of results for Labour, but they won't be panicking yet. They've clearly front-loaded some unpopular measures with their big majority. They're also somewhat fortunate that May's council election is mainly the counties and seats that were up in 2021, which was a good year for the Conservatives, so potential losses and corresponding negative headlines are more limited.

The Lib Dems will happy with Bromsgrove, not much else for them this week, but nothing else was likely apart from St Neots which was maybe a little disappointing.

Greens - there wasn't really much interesting on paper this week and that turned out to be the case.

I don’t think the Conservatives have, or can expect to have, a recovery involving gaining new support only 2 months after a bad defeat. What will probably be happening is that some Conservative voters who would have stayed at home in local elections before the GE are now coming out to vote again, combined with some of the opposite effect in Lab. I would say quite a few local elections are basically decided by whose vote comes out rather than a large degree of switching. The Tories probably don’t need switchers to gain council seats in some cases, they just need to get their vote out and also Lab may well lose votes to the LDs/ Greens- in some ways a reverse of the GE, where Tories staying at home/ voting RefUK meant Lab didn’t need vast numbers of new votes.