Election maps (UK wide)

[The Bishop]

So the LibDems carried every ward in St Ives/North Cornwall, but nowhere else in the county?

That's pretty remarkable.

[Pete Whitehead]

Sept 19, 2024 11:09:04 GMT The Bishop said:

So the LibDems carried every ward in St Ives/North Cornwall, but nowhere else in the county?

That's pretty remarkable.

Actually I have the Conservatives carrying St Columb Major, St Mawgan & St Wenn, albeit by a whisker so they didn't unless you're referring to the old North Cornwall district (that ward was previously part of Restormel) although your reference to St Ives suggest you mean the constituency.

It isn't that surprising really when you consider the extent of tactical voting. You can see from the breakdown that the Conservative vote is pretty steady througout the country and overwhelmingly the non-Conservative vote has coalesced behind whichever of Labour or the Lib Dems were best placed to defeat them. The only seat where that was less than wholly clear cut was SE Cornwall and here there are indeed one or two wards (eg in Saltash) where the Lib Dems were relatively competitive. Otherwise you see a severe underperformance by the Lib Dems in areas where they 'should' be strong (eg Truro city, St Austell) just as you see Labour squeezed out in somewhere like Penzance (which absent tactical voting would be one of their better areas)

[maxque]

That's a result that is pretty hard to believe (especially all those rural divisions voting for Labour), but then again, the GE result itself in Cornwall was a bit out of left field too.

[Deleted]

Sept 19, 2024 7:43:00 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

	Lab	Con	LD	Ref	Grn	Ind	Oth
Penwith	12.0%	22.0%	46.2%	14.0%	4.3%	0.6%	1.0%
Kerrier	29.1%	24.9%	21.4%	17.8%	4.9%	0.3%	1.6%
Carrick	41.0%	24.9%	13.2%	12.5%	6.9%	0.9%	0.6%
Restormel	32.4%	29.6%	12.5%	19.0%	4.8%	0.8%	1.0%
Caradon	31.8%	27.7%	16.6%	19.3%	4.1%		0.5%
North Cornwall	5.6%	26.5%	48.5%	16.3%	2.6%		0.5%
Cornwall	26.4%	26.1%	24.9%	16.5%	4.7%	0.4%	0.9%
Isles of Scilly	3.9%	27.8%	52.6%	10.2%	3.9%	0.7%	0.8%

That result looks like something out of the 1945 election. Did Brexit and losing Common Agricultural Policy funding issues push a lot of rural communities to vote Labour in 2024? It's quite a come down for the Tories to drop that far (albeit they did marginally better than their nationwide vote share) from 2019. Still, in 2015, David Cameron made a point about holidaying in Cornwall, and also the battle bus '40-40' strategies targeted the Lib Dem Cornish seats. 

[gwynthegriff]

Sept 22, 2024 16:46:22 GMT @sanders said:

Sept 19, 2024 7:43:00 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

	Lab	Con	LD	Ref	Grn	Ind	Oth
Penwith	12.0%	22.0%	46.2%	14.0%	4.3%	0.6%	1.0%
Kerrier	29.1%	24.9%	21.4%	17.8%	4.9%	0.3%	1.6%
Carrick	41.0%	24.9%	13.2%	12.5%	6.9%	0.9%	0.6%
Restormel	32.4%	29.6%	12.5%	19.0%	4.8%	0.8%	1.0%
Caradon	31.8%	27.7%	16.6%	19.3%	4.1%		0.5%
North Cornwall	5.6%	26.5%	48.5%	16.3%	2.6%		0.5%
Cornwall	26.4%	26.1%	24.9%	16.5%	4.7%	0.4%	0.9%
Isles of Scilly	3.9%	27.8%	52.6%	10.2%	3.9%	0.7%	0.8%

That result looks like something out of the 1945 election. Did Brexit and losing Common Agricultural Policy funding issues push a lot of rural communities to vote Labour in 2024? It's quite a come down for the Tories to drop that far (albeit they did marginally better than their nationwide vote share) from 2019. Still, in 2015, David Cameron made a point about holidaying in Cornwall, and also the battle bus '40-40' strategies targeted the Lib Dem Cornish seats. 

Almost certainly not.

[Sibboleth]

No, in 1945 Labour still didn't really exist at the eastern end of Cornwall. Anyway, there's never been any demographic reason for Labour performing poorly in Cornwall: there are working class towns of one sort or another all over the place and average incomes are low.

[Deleted]

It seems like 2017 was the big change in a lot of those places. Labour took second in Truro & Falmouth, and Camborne & Redruth that year and have now pretty convincingly won in those areas and beyond. I think there also seems to be a big issue in Cornwall about second homes and who owns them, and the impact that has on local communities being effectively displaced by townies. Wales seems to have got the balance right regarding second homes.

[gwynthegriff]

Sept 22, 2024 17:11:53 GMT @sanders said:

It seems like 2017 was the big change in a lot of those places. Labour took second in Truro & Falmouth, and Camborne & Redruth that year and have now pretty convincingly won in those areas and beyond. I think there also seems to be a big issue in Cornwall about second homes and who owns them, and the impact that has on local communities being effectively displaced by townies. Wales seems to have got the balance right regarding second homes.

Would you care to elaborate on that?

[Deleted]

Sept 22, 2024 17:24:17 GMT gwynthegriff said:

Sept 22, 2024 17:11:53 GMT @sanders said:

It seems like 2017 was the big change in a lot of those places. Labour took second in Truro & Falmouth, and Camborne & Redruth that year and have now pretty convincingly won in those areas and beyond. I think there also seems to be a big issue in Cornwall about second homes and who owns them, and the impact that has on local communities being effectively displaced by townies. Wales seems to have got the balance right regarding second homes.

Would you care to elaborate on that?

The long and the short of it is that you will pay higher council tax on a second home in the principality, which should, in time, dissuade people from having them. 

[batman]

Labour actually didn't win Camborne in 1945, though they won Penryn & Falmouth. So these are clearly Labour's best ever results in Cornwall in terms of winning seats, comfortably. North Cornwall, however, remains the most consistently poor seat for Labour in the UK; the party has never topped 16% of the vote there, however drawn. The Tories being wiped out in the county, however, has happened before, 3 times in fact.

[Deleted]

Sept 22, 2024 17:56:58 GMT batman said:

Labour actually didn't win Camborne in 1945, though they won Penryn & Falmouth. So these are clearly Labour's best ever results in Cornwall in terms of winning seats, comfortably. North Cornwall, however, remains the most consistently poor seat for Labour in the UK; the party has never topped 16% of the vote there, however drawn. The Tories being wiped out in the county, however, has happened before, 3 times in fact.

It has, in line with the rest of the Celtic fringe. The Tory result there in 2015 with Cameron as leader was pretty phenomenal and none of the seats were really that close in 2015. He holidayed there extensively (that may have actually encouraged others to buy second homes in the county, god forbid), and the Tories really went after the South West Lib Dem seats in 2015 (leading to the first and only election since 1955 where the Liberals or Lib Dems won nothing in the South West. 

[J.G.Harston]

Sept 22, 2024 17:34:24 GMT @sanders said:

Sept 22, 2024 17:24:17 GMT gwynthegriff said:

Would you care to elaborate on that?

The long and the short of it is that you will pay higher council tax on a second home in the principality, which should, in time, dissuade people from having them. 

Do you know what the position is with holiday lets?

[Deleted]

Sept 22, 2024 18:22:01 GMT J.G.Harston said:

Sept 22, 2024 17:34:24 GMT @sanders said:

The long and the short of it is that you will pay higher council tax on a second home in the principality, which should, in time, dissuade people from having them. 

Do you know what the position is with holiday lets?

I'm sure your holiday let is safe - www.sykescottages.co.uk/letyourcottage/advice/article/holiday-let-regulations-in-wales.Credit where credit's due, where Labour does something decent, I'm happy to give them credit. In London and Wales, Labour have generally done OK from a lefty perspective. 

[iain]

Sept 22, 2024 16:56:00 GMT Sibboleth said:

No, in 1945 Labour still didn't really exist at the eastern end of Cornwall. Anyway, there's never been any demographic reason for Labour performing poorly in Cornwall: there are working class towns of one sort or another all over the place and average incomes are low.

Well, rural and a lack of heavy industry has never been a forte for Labour I think it’s fair to say? Cornwall is pretty similar to other areas the Liberal tradition survived ahead of Labour, not just in the West Country but also the Marches, rural Wales & Scotland, large areas of East Anglia. In many of those the Liberal tradition still survives, but where it hasn’t Labour has largely struggled to take its place (e.g. Lincolnshire). It is therefore I guess vaguely interesting that they have managed to take advantage of the Lib Dem collapse in Cornwall but haven’t really elsewhere.

[J.G.Harston]

Sept 22, 2024 18:35:51 GMT @sanders said:

Sept 22, 2024 18:22:01 GMT J.G.Harston said:

Do you know what the position is with holiday lets?

I'm sure your holiday let is safe

Ha! I don't have a holiday let. I'm a town councillor in a town being killed off by being swamped with holiday lets. If tax changes prompt people to sell second homes, they'll be snapped up as holiday lets with no benefit to locals or the local economy. We have streets of houses where out of 50+ houses only half a dozen are occupied. Along with this, Planning- and Government-driven house building has added over 1000 houses in the last ten years, yet the local population has *dropped*.

[J.G.Harston]

Sept 22, 2024 18:35:51 GMT @sanders said:

Sept 22, 2024 18:22:01 GMT J.G.Harston said:

Do you know what the position is with holiday lets?

I'm sure your holiday let is safe - www.sykescottages.co.uk/letyourcottage/advice/article/holiday-let-regulations-in-wales. Credit where credit's due, where Labour does something decent, I'm happy to give them credit. In London and Wales, Labour have generally done OK from a lefty perspective. 

While they seem to get a lot of the terminology wrong, it seems fairly clear that a property not occupied by somebody as a primary residence is:
* if let out continously via residential let, is a residential let, and normal residential council tax is levied on the residents
* if let out for 182 or more days in an assessed year, is a commercial property, and is levied business rates
* otherwise, is a second home and is levied second home council tax.

Seems surprisingly straightforward. From county council briefings we've had indications that similar rules will be implemented in England.

I can see people trying to get around it by letting their second homes, but there's a limited market for renting somewhere for 183 days and then buggering off. And with Section 21 being abolished you can't kick out your tenants 'cos you want the place for a fortnight.

[Deleted]

Following on from what Sibboleth said, I guess a lot of these areas were tin mining country in the past - anyone know when that ended and what the economic impact of its decline was? I'm pretty sure that Cornwall benefitted from the European Union social fund, but then like a lot of similar areas, voted for Brexit. I wonder what impact that had here. I haven't been to Cornwall since 2001, but I get the sense that (like in many places) the tourism trade leads to a lot of low-paying, precarious sort of work. I know Exeter University has a Cornwall campus in Penryn (is it an especially large employer in the area?). It's easy to forget about Cornwall as someone living in London, although many in London will have or have had second homes in the duchy, since it's so far away on the map, but it's a fascinating area and I've often wondered whether the brothers of Cornwall (Mebyon Kernow) will ever break through in a meaningful way in the area, which seems ripe for a devolution deal.

[No Offence Alan]

Sept 23, 2024 4:18:17 GMT @sanders said:

Following on from what Sibboleth said, I guess a lot of these areas were tin mining country in the past - anyone know when that ended and what the economic impact of its decline was? I'm pretty sure that Cornwall benefitted from the European Union social fund, but then like a lot of similar areas, voted for Brexit. I wonder what impact that had here. I haven't been to Cornwall since 2001, but I get the sense that (like in many places) the tourism trade leads to a lot of low-paying, precarious sort of work. I know Exeter University has a Cornwall campus in Penryn (is it an especially large employer in the area?). It's easy to forget about Cornwall as someone living in London, although many in London will have or have had second homes in the duchy, since it's so far away on the map, but it's a fascinating area and I've often wondered whether the brothers of Cornwall (Mebyon Kernow) will ever break through in a meaningful way in the area, which seems ripe for a devolution deal.

Economically, the best thing for Cornwall would be to extend the M5 across 40 miles of beautiful Devonshire countryside.
No amount of devolution or autonomy for Cornwall could deliver that.

[Deleted]

Sept 23, 2024 5:44:18 GMT No Offence Alan said:

Sept 23, 2024 4:18:17 GMT @sanders said:

Following on from what Sibboleth said, I guess a lot of these areas were tin mining country in the past - anyone know when that ended and what the economic impact of its decline was? I'm pretty sure that Cornwall benefitted from the European Union social fund, but then like a lot of similar areas, voted for Brexit. I wonder what impact that had here. I haven't been to Cornwall since 2001, but I get the sense that (like in many places) the tourism trade leads to a lot of low-paying, precarious sort of work. I know Exeter University has a Cornwall campus in Penryn (is it an especially large employer in the area?). It's easy to forget about Cornwall as someone living in London, although many in London will have or have had second homes in the duchy, since it's so far away on the map, but it's a fascinating area and I've often wondered whether the brothers of Cornwall (Mebyon Kernow) will ever break through in a meaningful way in the area, which seems ripe for a devolution deal.

Economically, the best thing for Cornwall would be to extend the M5 across 40 miles of beautiful Devonshire countryside.
No amount of devolution or autonomy for Cornwall could deliver that.

Make a commuter area for Bristol an Exeter. Doesn't Cornwall have lithium? We should consider reviving mining there. Tourism causes as many problems as it solves. 

[aargauer]

Sept 22, 2024 17:34:24 GMT @sanders said:

Sept 22, 2024 17:24:17 GMT gwynthegriff said:

Would you care to elaborate on that?

The long and the short of it is that you will pay higher council tax on a second home in the principality, which should, in time, dissuade people from having them. 

Isn't the answers just to build more houses. I don't see why second homes should even be discouraged