batman
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Post by batman on Sept 10, 2024 16:47:26 GMT
For many years Labour won 19 of the wards in the city and the Tories just Trentham. Eventually they started winning a few others, sometimes many.
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Post by bjornhattan on Sept 10, 2024 17:25:05 GMT
To help get this thread back on topic (im sure there are other threads about local government finance) and with a nod to the evident nostalgia for the early 1990s, here's Somerset 1992  Dear old Bridgwater never changes lol Some would say it hasn’t changed since about 1958. I wonder when that basic pattern in the town of the Conservatives winning the Western ward ( Quantock/ Wyndham) and Labour winning the rest was last not the case at a GE. Possibly 2015? UKIP were significantly stronger in the general election than the concurrent locals and in some of the wards (such as Dunwear) they already did fairly well locally. Indeed the result there in full shows quite a chaotic pattern that increases the uncertainty in how it may have voted in the general. A very popular incumbent Labour candidate won the ward on 748 (the other Labour incumbent stepped down), and then the second seat was a three way marginal: UKIP 554, Con 541, Lab 438. And funnily enough, the Labour candidate in question? None other than Leigh Redman... |
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Post by timmullen on Sept 10, 2024 17:27:38 GMT
For many years Labour won 19 of the wards in the city and the Tories just Trentham. Eventually they started winning a few others, sometimes many. Our first win in Trentham (IIRC it was called Trentham Park back then) was with a Geordie ex-miner, Paul Findley, who was unlucky not to rise up the ranks; we soon went on to sweep all three seats in the Ward with Pauline Stevenson (wife of MP George) and Desiree Elliott who finally retired earlier this year triggering the Meir North by-election. It’s been vastly changed in the last lot of boundary changes taking in the Newstead social housing from Blurton but remains pretty Tory because it also includes a commuter housing development on the former Wedgwood factory at Barlaston (way out of the City); it’ll be one to watch as Newstead was quite Reform-y in our July canvassing and Wedgwood Park was targeted by Jack Brereton who apparently successfully campaigned to reopen the nearby Barlaston Railway Station although the July date for an announcement (along with a corresponding closure of the unused Wedgwood Station) has been and gone with silence. |
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Sept 10, 2024 17:42:19 GMT
Some would say it hasn’t changed since about 1958. I wonder when that basic pattern in the town of the Conservatives winning the Western ward ( Quantock/ Wyndham) and Labour winning the rest was last not the case at a GE. Possibly 2015? UKIP were significantly stronger in the general election than the concurrent locals and in some of the wards (such as Dunwear) they already did fairly well locally. Indeed the result there in full shows quite a chaotic pattern that increases the uncertainty in how it may have voted in the general. A very popular incumbent Labour candidate won the ward on 748 (the other Labour incumbent stepped down), and then the second seat was a three way marginal: UKIP 554, Con 541, Lab 438. And funnily enough, the Labour candidate in question? None other than Leigh Redman... Yes that’s possible, although it’s more difficult to apportion the UKIP vote. I wonder if the old Bower ward, which existed in the east of the town from 1999-2011 and was quite well drawn for the Conservatives was carried by them in 2010. Before that the Quantock ward might have been quite a close 3 way split in 1997, as it had been in the District council elections in 1995. |
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Post by aargauer on Sept 10, 2024 19:49:26 GMT
Sure - but if we consider council tax + business rates, isn't the main difference agricultural land? I think that's a reasonable exception from a wealth tax - its not something you can really leverage. The biggest issue with council tax being property only is that it does nothing about land banking and not moving forward with development. LVT penalises just that behaviour and the therefore puts additional pressure to actually build on suitable land rather than just sit on it and stop others from doing so. Fair point. |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 11, 2024 10:45:41 GMT
To help get this thread back on topic (im sure there are other threads about local government finance) and with a nod to the evident nostalgia for the early 1990s, here's Somerset 1992 Dear old Bridgwater never changes lol What is the other red bit on that map? |
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YL
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Post by YL on Sept 11, 2024 11:23:37 GMT
To help get this thread back on topic (im sure there are other threads about local government finance) and with a nod to the evident nostalgia for the early 1990s, here's Somerset 1992 Dear old Bridgwater never changes lol What is the other red bit on that map? Coleford. I assume Labour strength there was connected with the big Mendip quarries. |
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john07
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Post by john07 on Sept 11, 2024 14:30:57 GMT
To help get this thread back on topic (im sure there are other threads about local government finance) and with a nod to the evident nostalgia for the early 1990s, here's Somerset 1992 Dear old Bridgwater never changes lol Much of that stems from the work of Fred Phillips, a Czech emigree, who appeared to have taken over the Bridgwater Labour Party and built it up a formidable election winning machine. Labour took control of Bridgwater Council in the 1950s and held on until the authority was reorganised out of existence in the mid-1970s. Labour kept control throughout dark days of the late 1960s when Labour was almost wiped out in the major cities. I had a couple of friends at Manchester University, one a Labour activist and the other a Conservative supporter, although the latter always stood in student union elections under the Silly Party label and usually won. Both knew Fred Phillips who appeared to be both the Labour Secretary Agent and Council Leader. I understand that Phillips was responsible for reorganising the ward boundaries to ensure that Labour kept control. This Labour stronghold was threatened by the Redcliffe Maud report. Philips intervened with Wilson, although and no action was taken on the report until Heath was elected as PM in 1970. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Sept 13, 2024 10:21:08 GMT
 | | Con | LD | Lab | Ref | Grn | Ind | Oth | | | | | | | | | | | | | Mid Devon | 30.1% | 32.4% | 18.0% | 14.1% | 4.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% | | | East Devon | 30.6% | 36.1% | 14.1% | 13.6% | 3.8% | 1.4% | 0.4% | | | Exeter | 19.3% | 11.4% | 44.0% | 11.8% | 11.8% | 1.7% | | | | Teignbridge | 28.3% | 26.2% | 20.3% | 17.0% | 4.9% | 0.3% | 2.9% | | | South Hams | 29.8% | 39.3% | 13.3% | 12.6% | 4.4% | 0.3% | 0.2% | | | West Devon | 31.3% | 18.9% | 25.9% | 16.9% | 6.1% | 0.8% |
| | | Torridge | 31.3% | 23.6% | 21.0% | 18.6% | 4.7% | 0.8% |
| | | North Devon | 29.3% | 42.4% | 6.3% | 15.8% | 4.6% | 1.6% |
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| | | | | | | | | | Devon (CC) | 28.6% | 29.6% | 19.8% | 14.8% | 5.5% | 1.0% | 0.6% | |
| | | | | | | | | | Plymouth | 25.9% | 5.3% | 42.1% | 19.8% | 5.5% | 0.8% | 0.7% | |
| | | | | | | | | | Torbay | 31.8% | 39.6% | 7.0% | 18.2% | 2.9% | 0.0% | 0.5% | |
| | | | | | | | | | Devon | 28.4% | 26.0% | 22.8% | 16.2% | 5.2% | 0.8% | 0.6% | |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Sept 13, 2024 11:09:49 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Sept 13, 2024 11:24:48 GMT
| | Con | LD | Lab | Ref | Grn | Ind | Oth | | | | | | | | | | | | | Mid Devon | 30.1% | 32.4% | 18.0% | 14.1% | 4.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% | | | East Devon | 30.6% | 36.1% | 14.1% | 13.6% | 3.8% | 1.4% | 0.4% | | | Exeter | 19.3% | 11.4% | 44.0% | 11.8% | 11.8% | 1.7% | | | | Teignbridge | 28.3% | 26.2% | 20.3% | 17.0% | 4.9% | 0.3% | 2.9% | | | South Hams | 29.8% | 39.3% | 13.3% | 12.6% | 4.4% | 0.3% | 0.2% | | | West Devon | 31.3% | 18.9% | 25.9% | 16.9% | 6.1% | 0.8% |
| | | Torridge | 31.3% | 23.6% | 21.0% | 18.6% | 4.7% | 0.8% |
| | | North Devon | 29.3% | 42.4% | 6.3% | 15.8% | 4.6% | 1.6% |
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| | | | | | | | | | Devon (CC) | 28.6% | 29.6% | 19.8% | 14.8% | 5.5% | 1.0% | 0.6% | |
| | | | | | | | | | Plymouth | 25.9% | 5.3% | 42.1% | 19.8% | 5.5% | 0.8% | 0.7% | |
| | | | | | | | | | Torbay | 31.8% | 39.6% | 7.0% | 18.2% | 2.9% | 0.0% | 0.5% | |
| | | | | | | | | | Devon | 28.4% | 26.0% | 22.8% | 16.2% | 5.2% | 0.8% | 0.6% | |
Torridge was interesting all things consider. Lib Dems held the old Torridge seat for 10 years (albeit the first two were due to Emma Nicholson defecting in 1995). 'Tavistock' surely made the difference there. Unless the 'West Devon' part of the old seat but the Lib Dems over the top in 1997 and 2001. |
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batman
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Post by batman on Sept 13, 2024 16:49:53 GMT
Like many Western constituencies that seat, in that awful period for the Conservatives,would have been a case of the mostly LD towns and the mostly Tory countryside. The LDs would have been ahead in Okehampton, Bideford, Great Torrington and probably Tavistock, plus some smaller towns; the Tories would have led in more rural localities, but John Burnett was a local farmer and I suspect he may have obtained some farming votes over and above what a Lib Dem might normally have expected. But of course I could be talking out of my arse, it’s hardly unknown.
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YL
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Post by YL on Sept 13, 2024 17:42:57 GMT
I guess this is as good an answer as we're going to get to the "where does the Labour vote in Central Devon come from" question. How confident are you about Cranbrook? |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Sept 13, 2024 18:36:41 GMT
I guess this is as good an answer as we're going to get to the "where does the Labour vote in Central Devon come from" question. How confident are you about Cranbrook? Not very - I have the Conservatives ahead with less than 30%, Lib Dems second - Labour a close third. Re: Devon Central, I still can't get my head round the Labour strength there (which afterall manifested itself in 2017/19 not just in this election) - there just isn't the basis for such a strong Labour vote there but I guess the larger towns - Crediton, Okehampton, Ashburton seem like the likeliest sources. I haedly know the area at all - I've visited the area around Bovery Tracey and I can hardly think of somewhere that looks less like it votes Labour. |
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batman
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Post by batman on Sept 13, 2024 20:32:24 GMT
Ashburton doesn’t strike me as anything like natural Labour territory but perhaps tactically it could happen. Crediton has a bit of dairy industry and the possibility of Okehampton having a Labour vote is not entirely ridiculous. I have read that Holsworthy is regarded as having Labour potential , but I don’t really have the knowledge to confirm or deny that.
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Sept 13, 2024 20:46:17 GMT
Holsworthy is in West rather than Central Devon. There is Defitnely a slightly evident Labour vote in Okehampton- in 2015 on GE day they did get pretty close to winning a council seat in Okehampton South- so I we think we can take it that Labour were ahead in Okehampton. Crediton is solidly LD at local level but must of voted Lab- there are pockets of Okehampton and Crediton where one can imagine lots of Labour votes coming from. As someone else mentioned there are one or two new Exeter estates spilling into this constituency- I dont think many people live there yet, but those that do are a source of Lab votes. Plus I know I bang this drum, but in the villages nearer Exeter like Exminster, Pathfinder Village, Tedburn St Mary most people of working age will work in Exeter- I doubt Labour were ahead in them but those aren’t going to be places where Lab get 10%- those places will have a bigger Lab vote than some would think.
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YL
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Post by YL on Sept 14, 2024 15:00:17 GMT
Holsworthy is in West rather than Central Devon. There is Defitnely a slightly evident Labour vote in Okehampton- in 2015 on GE day they did get pretty close to winning a council seat in Okehampton South- so I we think we can take it that Labour were ahead in Okehampton. Crediton is solidly LD at local level but must of voted Lab- there are pockets of Okehampton and Crediton where one can imagine lots of Labour votes coming from. As someone else mentioned there are one or two new Exeter estates spilling into this constituency- I dont think many people live there yet, but those that do are a source of Lab votes. Plus I know I bang this drum, but in the villages nearer Exeter like Exminster, Pathfinder Village, Tedburn St Mary most people of working age will work in Exeter- I doubt Labour were ahead in them but those aren’t going to be places where Lab get 10%- those places will have a bigger Lab vote than some would think. I suspect Labour did indeed get a reasonable vote in Exminster in particular, but the Exeter fringe is a fairly small proportion of the constituency. Pathfinder Village is some sort of retirement settlement, so there's actually hardly anyone of working age there; in the Output Area which covers most of the village only about 8% are under 60. I suspect Okehampton and Crediton are indeed the best bits for Labour. |
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Post by Deleted on Sept 14, 2024 15:31:03 GMT
Isn't the financial services industry quite big in Crediton? It sounds like the sort of places that would you have jobs in the sector. There's a Debiton as well I think.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Sept 19, 2024 7:43:00 GMT
 | | Lab | Con | LD | Ref | Grn | Ind | Oth | | | | | | | | | | | | | Penwith | 12.0% | 22.0% | 46.2% | 14.0% | 4.3% | 0.6% | 1.0% | | | Kerrier | 29.1% | 24.9% | 21.4% | 17.8% | 4.9% | 0.3% | 1.6% | | | Carrick | 41.0% | 24.9% | 13.2% | 12.5% | 6.9% | 0.9% | 0.6% | | | Restormel | 32.4% | 29.6% | 12.5% | 19.0% | 4.8% | 0.8% | 1.0% | | | Caradon | 31.8% | 27.7% | 16.6% | 19.3% | 4.1% |
| 0.5% | | | North Cornwall | 5.6% | 26.5% | 48.5% | 16.3% | 2.6% |
| 0.5% | |
| | | | | | | | | | Cornwall | 26.4% | 26.1% | 24.9% | 16.5% | 4.7% | 0.4% | 0.9% | |
| | | | | | | | | | Isles of Scilly | 3.9% | 27.8% | 52.6% | 10.2% | 3.9% | 0.7% | 0.8% | |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Sept 19, 2024 7:46:30 GMT
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