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Post by Pete Whitehead on Aug 26, 2024 10:29:44 GMT
I see how you’ve got there, but I’d be pretty surprised if Labour carried Hucclecote or, to a lesser extent, Quedgeley Severn Vale. I was surprised. Gloucester is an awkward one because the local elections have been so messed up there in recent years, in particular with Labour underperforming in what should be their best areas. I did make some manual adjustments to account for this but there's a limit to how much I can do that before I'm basically pulling numbers out of my arse. |
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Post by swanarcadian on Aug 26, 2024 21:56:07 GMT
Interesting overall percentages for the parties in Gloucestershire. What were the 1997 figures there just for comparison?
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Aug 26, 2024 22:02:12 GMT
Interesting overall percentages for the parties in Gloucestershire. What were the 1997 figures there just for comparison? Con 39.5%, Lab 34%, LD 22.6% |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 1, 2024 13:26:14 GMT
 | | Con | Lab | LD | Ref | Grn | Ind | Oth | | | | | | | | | | | | | Swindon | 29.5% | 42.8% | 6.0% | 15.2% | 5.4% | 0.8% | 0.2% | |
| | | | | | | | | | Kennet | 39.1% | 19.4% | 20.7% | 16.1% | 4.4% | 0.0% | 0.3% | | | Salisbury | 33.5% | 26.7% | 22.5% | 12.2% | 4.1% | 0.8% | 0.3% | | | West Wiltshire | 32.7% | 19.7% | 26.7% | 15.3% | 4.4% | 1.2% | 0.0% | | | North Wiltshire | 32.0% | 7.2% | 44.0% | 11.9% | 3.7% | 0.9% | 0.2% | |
| | | | | | | | | | Wiltshire UA | 33.8% | 17.6% | 29.8% | 13.6% | 4.1% | 0.8% | 0.2% | |
| | | | | | | | | | Wiltshire | 32.6% | 24.5% | 23.3% | 14.1% | 4.5% | 0.8% | 0.2% | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | | Cotswold | 34.5% | 10.9% | 38.9% | 10.6% | 4.0% | 0.7% | 0.4% | | | Cheltenham | 34.3% | 5.5% | 50.6% | 1.8% | 6.5% | 1.4% | 0.0% | | | Tewkesbury | 32.1% | 13.2% | 35.1% | 13.1% | 6.0% | 0.5% | 0.0% | | | Forest of Dean | 32.8% | 34.3% | 5.4% | 17.4% | 9.9% | 0.0% | 0.2% | | | Gloucester | 28.4% | 32.1% | 16.0% | 15.2% | 4.9% | 0.7% | 2.7% | | | Stroud | 27.3% | 41.0% | 9.3% | 11.6% | 10.1% | 0.6% | 0.3% | |
| | | | | | | | | | Gloucestershire | 31.3% | 23.5% | 25.6% | 11.3% | 7.0% | 0.7% | 0.6% | |
I think Labour might have won Wotton ward. Our sampling suggested we were ahead in Stinchcombe which is probably the least Labour-inclined part of the ward. Surprisingly it also appears to have been one of the better areas of the constituency for Reform, largely in the more working-class "Synwell" half of the town |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Sept 4, 2024 7:16:34 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Sept 4, 2024 7:18:00 GMT
I think we have a winner.
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Clark
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Post by Clark on Sept 4, 2024 7:37:12 GMT
Excellent stuff, Pete.
Did you do these ward breakdowns after any of the previous General Elections, and if so, would you have a link to them so I could have a look?
Thanks.
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batman
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Post by batman on Sept 4, 2024 7:42:16 GMT
pardon my ignorance but where is this please? |
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on Sept 4, 2024 7:45:08 GMT
pardon my ignorance but where is this please? Wiltshire and Gloucestershire |
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batman
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Post by batman on Sept 4, 2024 8:19:16 GMT
ah, thanks.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Sept 4, 2024 9:13:20 GMT
Excellent stuff, Pete. Did you do these ward breakdowns after any of the previous General Elections, and if so, would you have a link to them so I could have a look? Thanks. I have for some areas at every election back to 1974 (back to 1945 in London) - other areas more patchy coverage. The only time I did the entire country (excluding Scotland, apart from Glasgow and Edinburgh) was for the 1992 parliament but that was with paper and pen and calculator and I no longer have that data. I don't have any link because none of this is online except such maps as I have posted here. Happy to share some data though if you have some specific requests |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 4, 2024 9:23:29 GMT
Excellent stuff, Pete. Did you do these ward breakdowns after any of the previous General Elections, and if so, would you have a link to them so I could have a look? Thanks. I have for some areas at every election back to 1974 (back to 1945 in London) - other areas more patchy coverage. The only time I did the entire country (excluding Scotland, apart from Glasgow and Edinburgh) was for the 1992 parliament but that was with paper and pen and calculator and I no longer have that data. I don't have any link because none of this is online except such maps as I have posted here. Happy to share some data though if you have some specific requests 1945 in London would be excellent |
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Post by evergreenadam on Sept 4, 2024 11:53:17 GMT
I have for some areas at every election back to 1974 (back to 1945 in London) - other areas more patchy coverage. The only time I did the entire country (excluding Scotland, apart from Glasgow and Edinburgh) was for the 1992 parliament but that was with paper and pen and calculator and I no longer have that data. I don't have any link because none of this is online except such maps as I have posted here. Happy to share some data though if you have some specific requests 1945 in London would be excellent 1997 for Gloucestershire and Wilts would be interesting. |
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Clark
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Post by Clark on Sept 4, 2024 12:25:53 GMT
1997 Bucks and Surrey would be good.
Of course, wasn't there local elections on the same day as the 1997 General so projections should be easier - I guess most people will have voted the same way...
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batman
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Post by batman on Sept 4, 2024 12:45:32 GMT
There will be some differences - certainly for example some will have voted LD in the county elections but Labour or Conservative in the general. However, a reasonable similarity would be mostly the order of the day.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Sept 4, 2024 13:14:33 GMT
1997 Bucks and Surrey would be good. Of course, wasn't there local elections on the same day as the 1997 General so projections should be easier - I guess most people will have voted the same way... The county council elections 1997 to 2005 were very useful for doing notional results over that period. My coverage is as I say patchy and I have updated my methodology several times over the years. I have done Buckinghamshire back to 1974 (but for some reason left out some of the more recent elections eg 2010). Some work I had done on Surrey, Sussex and Kent was lost a while ago due to a hard disk error but I have some older work I did on Surrey. I'm not sure how best to present the data other than via the kind of thematic maps I've been posting here (the spreadsheets are in rather a rough form which would require some refinement to make them intelligible) |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Sept 4, 2024 14:31:25 GMT
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Sept 4, 2024 15:52:24 GMT
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Post by johnloony on Sept 4, 2024 16:15:23 GMT
Today I looked at the map and noticed that in 2024 Staffordshire Moorlands is Conservative, and Derbyshire Dales is Labour
whereas in 1997 it was the other way round
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Sept 4, 2024 16:39:13 GMT
Today I looked at the map and noticed that in 2024 Staffordshire Moorlands is Conservative, and Derbyshire Dales is Labour whereas in 1997 it was the other way round You want either the useless electoral facts thread or the amazing stupidity and ignorance thread. Of course like everyone else here you were aware on the morning of the 5th July about the situation that you describe (in any case on the 1997 boundaries Staffs Moorlands would clearly have voted Labour and by a larger m,ajority than they won in Derbyshire Dales (although I guess they would have won more easily on the old West Derbyshire boundaries as well)) |
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