Election maps (UK wide)

[bjornhattan]

Aug 19, 2024 6:05:05 GMT @sanders said:

Aug 19, 2024 5:08:55 GMT ccoleman said:

I find it interesting that the Lib Dems have considerably less strength in Tonbridge than in Tunbridge Wells and Sevenoaks.

Tories have a Ton of supporters. Plus Tugendhat’s a dripping wet centrist. That’s my analysis of it anyway. Tunbridge Wells didn’t have an incumbent. Sevenoaks - have you heard of Swanley?

Swanley is pretty dire LD territory - at local elections they rarely even bother to stand there. My own modelling has them a very distant fourth in the two more urban Swanley wards (which are three way marginals - I have them as Reform but in practice they'll also have been Labour's strongest wards). Even in the more middle class peripheral Christchurch and Village ward they're significantly weaker than the seat as a whole.

Of course this does have the effect of "concentrating" LD votes in the Sevenoaks part of the seat (if they're not in Swanley they have to be somewhere else), so even while losing the seat as a whole by 11%, most of Sevenoaks proper probably voted LD. Where models differ is how many wards they won - two, three, or all four.

[Pete Whitehead]

Aug 19, 2024 7:18:34 GMT bjornhattan said:

Aug 19, 2024 6:05:05 GMT @sanders said:

Tories have a Ton of supporters. Plus Tugendhat’s a dripping wet centrist. That’s my analysis of it anyway. Tunbridge Wells didn’t have an incumbent. Sevenoaks - have you heard of Swanley?

Swanley is pretty dire LD territory - at local elections they rarely even bother to stand there. My own modelling has them a very distant fourth in the two more urban Swanley wards (which are three way marginals - I have them as Reform but in practice they'll also have been Labour's strongest wards). Even in the more middle class peripheral Christchurch and Village ward they're significantly weaker than the seat as a whole.

Of course this does have the effect of "concentrating" LD votes in the Sevenoaks part of the seat (if they're not in Swanley they have to be somewhere else), so even while losing the seat as a whole by 11%, most of Sevenoaks proper probably voted LD. Where models differ is how many wards they won - two, three, or all four.

Historically of course the Lib Dems were very strong locally in the Northern wards of Sevenoaks district - not Swanley itself, but the outlying parts of what had been the Dartford rural district - Crockenhill, Eynsford etc. They used to get a monolithic vote in some of these wards, far more than in Seevnoaks itself. It must primarily have been a local only vote though as demographically it isn't natural Lib Dem territory. I suppose a bit like some of the more ordinary parts of Orpington next door. For sure at this election, the Lib Dem vote would have been heavily concentrated in the south of the constituency and especially in Sevenoaks town.

[batman]

The lack of Liberal Democrat support in Tonbridge is nothing whatsoever to do with the perceived position of Tom Tugendhat within the Conservative Party. It's just that Tonbridge & Hildenborough are very different in character and history from Tunbridge Wells despite their proximity. They're both very middle-class for the most part but they're just not quite the same kind of voters.

The idea that the Tories need any kind of gerrymander to win in Sevenoaks is utterly risible. They have won there very easily indeed throughout the living memory of everybody on this forum.

[greatkingrat]

Georg Ebner There is a problem with your formulae in the "right" column. You've subtracted Reform from Conservative instead of adding them.

[East Anglian Lefty]

Tunbridge Wells and to a lesser extent Sevenoaks were both seats where the Lib Dems established themselves as the strongest non-Tory option. In Tonbridge they didn't. I find it unlikely that most of the Green vote in Tonbridge is utterly unwilling to vote LD, it just wasn't persuaded that that was the most effective action locally.

[Pete Whitehead]

Lib Dem local strength in Tonbridge & Malling has always been at the 'Malling' end of the borough - the Mallings themselves, Aylesford, Ditton, Larkfield etc. In general elections much of this area has been lumped in with Chatham in recent decades (where local Lib Dem voters have been forced to choose between one of the two 'main' parties) - now the Mallings are in with Maidstone which really is somewhere the Lib Dems underperformed. That is just the sort of seat with long term potential of the type that went Lib Dem in droves this year.
Tonbridge town itself has never had much Lib Dem support but has always had a non-negligible Labour vote (and now the Greens are the main 'progressive' option locally).

[Georg Ebner]

Aug 19, 2024 8:41:42 GMT greatkingrat said:

Georg Ebner There is a problem with your formulae in the "right" column. You've subtracted Reform from Conservative instead of adding them.

Ah, thanks for the hint - here is an improved version:

[YL]

Aug 19, 2024 5:08:55 GMT ccoleman said:

I find it interesting that the Lib Dems have considerably less strength in Tonbridge than in Tunbridge Wells and Sevenoaks.

I think it is somewhat relevant that Tunbridge Wells was the only district in Kent to vote Remain. Sevenoaks district did not (obviously) but it was fairly close and Sevenoaks town has the highest proportions of people with degree level education (at MSOA level) in Kent, which given the general patterns suggests that it was fairly strong for Remain too. (The northern part of the district and constituency, especially Swanley and also West Kingsdown, is very different in this respect.) Tonbridge doesn't have anything quite like that: its proportions with degree level education are middling, and at constituency level lower than either Sevenoaks or Tunbridge Wells.

Though I'm sure that the Lib Dem strength is, as usual, partly because that's where they tried.

[Devil Wincarnate]

Aug 19, 2024 9:31:05 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Lib Dem local strength in Tonbridge & Malling has always been at the 'Malling' end of the borough - the Mallings themselves, Aylesford, Ditton, Larkfield etc. In general elections much of this area has been lumped in with Chatham in recent decades (where local Lib Dem voters have been forced to choose between one of the two 'main' parties) - now the Mallings are in with Maidstone which really is somewhere the Lib Dems underperformed. That is just the sort of seat with long term potential of the type that went Lib Dem in droves this year.
Tonbridge town itself has never had much Lib Dem support but has always had a non-negligible Labour vote (and now the Greens are the main 'progressive' option locally).

Does the old Kent coal belt have any lingering impact that you can discern?

[Pete Whitehead]

Aug 20, 2024 10:12:00 GMT Devil Wincarnate said:

Aug 19, 2024 9:31:05 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Lib Dem local strength in Tonbridge & Malling has always been at the 'Malling' end of the borough - the Mallings themselves, Aylesford, Ditton, Larkfield etc. In general elections much of this area has been lumped in with Chatham in recent decades (where local Lib Dem voters have been forced to choose between one of the two 'main' parties) - now the Mallings are in with Maidstone which really is somewhere the Lib Dems underperformed. That is just the sort of seat with long term potential of the type that went Lib Dem in droves this year.
Tonbridge town itself has never had much Lib Dem support but has always had a non-negligible Labour vote (and now the Greens are the main 'progressive' option locally).

Does the old Kent coal belt have any lingering impact that you can discern?

I guess its descernable to varying degrees in all those semi rural wards between Canterbury and Dover and Deal. Most marked of course in Aylesham which is still probablyt he grimmest part of the constituency it is in, despite that being Dover..

[Pete Whitehead]

	Con	LD	Lab	Ref	Grn	Ind	Oth
Bournemouth	29.3%	8.0%	38.6%	15.1%	6.5%	2.0%	0.5%
Christchurch	32.1%	21.4%	18.0%	19.1%	4.3%	3.7%	1.3%
Poole	32.2%	22.9%	26.0%	12.1%	4.7%	1.0%	1.1%
Bournemouth, Christchurch & Poole	30.9%	16.1%	30.4%	14.5%	5.5%	1.8%	0.9%
East Dorset	41.9%	28.1%	11.0%	11.9%	4.2%	1.7%	1.3%
North Dorset	34.3%	35.7%	8.9%	15.7%	4.4%	0.6%	0.4%
Purbeck	41.2%	28.0%	16.7%	8.4%	4.2%	0.4%	1.2%
Weymouth & Portland	25.3%	15.9%	36.6%	16.1%	5.2%	0.9%	0.0%
West Dorset	36.3%	47.5%	7.9%	2.3%	4.2%	1.8%	0.0%
Dorset UA	36.2%	33.4%	14.3%	9.9%	4.4%	1.2%	0.5%
Dorset	33.7%	25.3%	21.8%	12.0%	4.9%	1.5%	0.7%

Half the parliamentary seats on barely a fifth of the vote is impressive..

[Pete Whitehead]

[Davıd Boothroyd]

A striking demonstration of how non-Conservative voters moved to the party with the best chance - whether it was deliberate tactical voting or not. Note Labour winning twice as many seats as the Conservatives despite being 8% behind in share of the vote.

[batman]

I'm still astonished by the Labour gain in Poole a month later. Which are the BCP wards you think Labour won, Pete?

[Deleted]

Aug 24, 2024 8:53:47 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Looks pretty accurate to me! In South Dorset, what wards (if any) have the Tories 3rd place or lower? Pretty much all of the Labour wards are contenders I suspect, although with different parties ahead: LD in Radipole, Reform in Portland, Melcombe Regis and Wyke & Rodwell, plausibly both in Westham.

[Pete Whitehead]

Aug 24, 2024 10:01:30 GMT @nw12398 said:

Aug 24, 2024 8:53:47 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Looks pretty accurate to me! In South Dorset, what wards (if any) have the Tories 3rd place or lower? Pretty much all of the Labour wards are contenders I suspect, although with different parties ahead: LD in Radipole, Reform in Portland, Melcombe Regis and Wyke & Rodwell, plausibly both in Westham.

Much as you say. Third behind the Lib Dems in Radipole and Westham - almost pushed into fourth by Reform in the latter. Portland close for second but I have the Conservatives ahead. Local elections in Portland have made confusing reading over the years. It's a fascinating electoral landscape in W&P and this is the only part of Dorset I know even moderately well.

[YL]

Aug 24, 2024 9:48:11 GMT batman said:

I'm still astonished by the Labour gain in Poole a month later. Which are the BCP wards you think Labour won, Pete?

From the map:

Poole (4/8)

Hamworthy
Poole Town
Oakdale
Newtown & Heatherlands

Bournemouth West (6/8)

Bournemouth Central
Alderney & Bourne Valley
Kinson
Redhill & Northbourne
Wallisdown & Winton West
Winton East

Bournemouth East (8/9)

East Cliff & Springbourne
Boscombe West
Boscombe East & Pokesdown
West Southbourne
Littledown & Ilford
Queen's Park
Muscliff & Strouden Park
Moordown

It looks like he has the highest Labour shares in the coastal wards in Bournemouth East (except East Southbourne & Tuckton) and in a few inland wards there and in West: Queen's Park, Moordown, Kinson, Alderney & Bourne Valley.

The Lib Dem wards are the three in MDNP constituency and Christchurch Town.

FWIW Electoral Calculus concurs on all BCP wards except for Littledown & Ilford (Con) and Burton & Grange in Christchurch (Lab).

[batman]

thanks, I would have found it difficult to match the wards up without that help.

[Pete Whitehead]

	Con	Lab	LD	Ref	Grn	Ind	Oth
Swindon	29.5%	42.8%	6.0%	15.2%	5.4%	0.8%	0.2%
Kennet	39.1%	19.4%	20.7%	16.1%	4.4%	0.0%	0.3%
Salisbury	33.5%	26.7%	22.5%	12.2%	4.1%	0.8%	0.3%
West Wiltshire	32.7%	19.7%	26.7%	15.3%	4.4%	1.2%	0.0%
North Wiltshire	32.0%	7.2%	44.0%	11.9%	3.7%	0.9%	0.2%
Wiltshire UA	33.8%	17.6%	29.8%	13.6%	4.1%	0.8%	0.2%
Wiltshire	32.6%	24.5%	23.3%	14.1%	4.5%	0.8%	0.2%
Cotswold	34.5%	10.9%	38.9%	10.6%	4.0%	0.7%	0.4%
Cheltenham	34.3%	5.5%	50.6%	1.8%	6.5%	1.4%	0.0%
Tewkesbury	32.1%	13.2%	35.1%	13.1%	6.0%	0.5%	0.0%
Forest of Dean	32.8%	34.3%	5.4%	17.4%	9.9%	0.0%	0.2%
Gloucester	28.4%	32.1%	16.0%	15.2%	4.9%	0.7%	2.7%
Stroud	27.3%	41.0%	9.3%	11.6%	10.1%	0.6%	0.3%
Gloucestershire	31.3%	23.5%	25.6%	11.3%	7.0%	0.7%	0.6%

[iain]

I see how you’ve got there, but I’d be pretty surprised if Labour carried Hucclecote or, to a lesser extent, Quedgeley Severn Vale.