Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
Posts: 12,021
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Post by Khunanup on Aug 14, 2024 12:25:16 GMT
He's not. If anything he has a negative personal vote. So you'll need to look elsewhere for your reasons why his result what it was. For the avoidance of doubt, I am no fan of Jenrick whatsoever. However, objectively he did well to hold his seat last month (which was Labour in 1997) with relative ease. It's nothing to do with being a fan of him or not. I have family in the seat, he is not particularly liked. |
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Post by aargauer on Aug 14, 2024 13:01:07 GMT
For the avoidance of doubt, I am no fan of Jenrick whatsoever. However, objectively he did well to hold his seat last month (which was Labour in 1997) with relative ease. It's nothing to do with being a fan of him or not. I have family in the seat, he is not particularly liked. The neighbouring Sherwood Forest constituency has a much smaller labour majority than in 1997. |
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Post by batman on Aug 14, 2024 13:03:10 GMT
I don't think Labour will be too worried about that statistic. The swing to Labour was absolutely huge, one of over 22%, and they will be very pleased to hold the seat at all, let alone by the fairly comfortably margin that they ended up winning it by.
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Post by ClevelandYorks on Aug 14, 2024 13:36:32 GMT
Why does Matt Vickers in Stockton West have a high personal vote advantage? It's clearly a very impressive result as it's in the top Tory lists - although over 40% and 20K vote shares are likely to go together. A 2K and 4% majority don't paint the same picture but are probably good in themselves given he's the only Tory left in the North East of England. I'm not sure Vickers has much of personal vote, I just think this is a fundamentally very Tory seat. I always thought the Labour potential in Stockton West was exaggerated, particularly in some of the notional results which underestimated the dramatic impact of the boundary changes. There's not a single ward wholly contained within the seat that has a Labour councillor (only half of the new Grangefield ward is in this seat and it's very small). The old Stockton South seat was polarised, with large Labour votes in wards like Parkfield & Oxbridge, Mandale & Victoria and Stainsby Hill, all of which were moved out and replaced by True Blue rural territory east of Darlington. In the 2023 local elections, Labour did poorly in the wards of Bishopsgarth & Elm Tree, Fairfield and Thornaby Village which they needed to win by a decent margin to have taken the seat. These are older and heavily owner-occupied wards though not particularly wealthy, and are probably trending Tory. The wealthier areas of Hartburn and Yarm are the home bases of Vickers and Houchen respectively, but the Tory votes are weighed here regardless of candidate. Labour may have done better in Ingleby Barwick (young families & professionals, lots of new builds) and Eaglescliffe (new builds, Dancey's hometown, less posh than Yarm). Overall, the final margin was about what I'd have expected given the national environment and a big Labour campaign locally, but I suspect this will be a very safe Tory seat with a 10,000 majority at the next election. |
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Clark
Forum Regular
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Post by Clark on Aug 14, 2024 14:24:55 GMT
Interestingly enough, I just did a google streeview look at Yarm which was recently done in June this year and saw a stakeboard for the Labour candidate Joe Dancey on Davenport Road !
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Post by andrewp on Aug 14, 2024 14:38:03 GMT
Why does Matt Vickers in Stockton West have a high personal vote advantage? It's clearly a very impressive result as it's in the top Tory lists - although over 40% and 20K vote shares are likely to go together. A 2K and 4% majority don't paint the same picture but are probably good in themselves given he's the only Tory left in the North East of England. I'm not sure Vickers has much of personal vote, I just think this is a fundamentally very Tory seat. I always thought the Labour potential in Stockton West was exaggerated, particularly in some of the notional results which underestimated the dramatic impact of the boundary changes. There's not a single ward wholly contained within the seat that has a Labour councillor (only half of the new Grangefield ward is in this seat and it's very small). The old Stockton South seat was polarised, with large Labour votes in wards like Parkfield & Oxbridge, Mandale & Victoria and Stainsby Hill, all of which were moved out and replaced by True Blue rural territory east of Darlington. In the 2023 local elections, Labour did poorly in the wards of Bishopsgarth & Elm Tree, Fairfield and Thornaby Village which they needed to win by a decent margin to have taken the seat. These are older and heavily owner-occupied wards though not particularly wealthy, and are probably trending Tory. The wealthier areas of Hartburn and Yarm are the home bases of Vickers and Houchen respectively, but the Tory votes are weighed here regardless of candidate. Labour may have done better in Ingleby Barwick (young families & professionals, lots of new builds) and Eaglescliffe (new builds, Dancey's hometown, less posh than Yarm). Overall, the final margin was about what I'd have expected given the national environment and a big Labour campaign locally, but I suspect this will be a very safe Tory seat with a 10,000 majority at the next election. Unless the notionals were wrong ( possible) a 2019 majority of 11700 puts this firmly in the category of majorities that Lab overturned in most places. For Lab to get closer to winning say Skipton and Ripon, and gain North Northumberland which had a bigger notional majority than this seat, means this seat was an outlier for some or many reasons, as Lab gained other seats this time which could have been described as a fundamentally Tory seat. There presumably was a Teesside/ Ben Houchen effect here. |
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Post by liverpoolliberal on Aug 14, 2024 23:12:01 GMT
I'm not too confident about all of this, but the Isle of Wight was just weird really..  | | Con | Lab | Ref | Grn | LD | Ind | Oth | | | | | | | | | | | | | Medina | 27.6% | 32.1% | 18.0% | 11.8% | 9.8% | 0.5% | 0.2% | | | South Wight | 33.1% | 23.8% | 20.1% | 13.7% | 8.4% | 0.7% | 0.1% | | | | | | | | | | | | | Isle of Wight | 30.0% | 28.5% | 18.9% | 12.6% | 9.2% | 0.6% | 0.2% | |
Having just got back from my annual week on the island for my birthday, I reckon this is spot on. I reckon Cowes would be the strongest Lab area of West Wight, Newport would’ve voted Lab (probably strongly in the Carisbrooke/Shide area) but with a stronger Reform vote (especially in the centre and Hunny Hill/Parkhurst area). I totally buy that Freshwater, Totland and Colwell voted Labour - best way I can put it is that it would be very strongly LD if it was a Con/LD seat, it’s that kind of “nice but not rich”. For the east, Ryde must’ve been a ridiculous 4 way split. I’d guess that the Greens did fairly well in Ventnor - the high street feels noticeably more trendy and alternative than the rest of the island. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 15, 2024 2:37:04 GMT
Why does Matt Vickers in Stockton West have a high personal vote advantage? It's clearly a very impressive result as it's in the top Tory lists - although over 40% and 20K vote shares are likely to go together. A 2K and 4% majority don't paint the same picture but are probably good in themselves given he's the only Tory left in the North East of England. I'm not sure Vickers has much of personal vote, I just think this is a fundamentally very Tory seat. I always thought the Labour potential in Stockton West was exaggerated, particularly in some of the notional results which underestimated the dramatic impact of the boundary changes. There's not a single ward wholly contained within the seat that has a Labour councillor (only half of the new Grangefield ward is in this seat and it's very small). The old Stockton South seat was polarised, with large Labour votes in wards like Parkfield & Oxbridge, Mandale & Victoria and Stainsby Hill, all of which were moved out and replaced by True Blue rural territory east of Darlington. In the 2023 local elections, Labour did poorly in the wards of Bishopsgarth & Elm Tree, Fairfield and Thornaby Village which they needed to win by a decent margin to have taken the seat. These are older and heavily owner-occupied wards though not particularly wealthy, and are probably trending Tory. The wealthier areas of Hartburn and Yarm are the home bases of Vickers and Houchen respectively, but the Tory votes are weighed here regardless of candidate. Labour may have done better in Ingleby Barwick (young families & professionals, lots of new builds) and Eaglescliffe (new builds, Dancey's hometown, less posh than Yarm). Overall, the final margin was about what I'd have expected given the national environment and a big Labour campaign locally, but I suspect this will be a very safe Tory seat with a 10,000 majority at the next election. You're spot on about the locals: |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Aug 15, 2024 20:04:14 GMT
In every Labour landslide which has reduced the Conservatives to a single seat in Nottinghamshire, Bingham has been in that Conservative seat. 1945 it was in Newark, 1966 in Carlton, 1997 in Rushcliffe, 2024 back in Newark Newark (which also included this area) was also the only Conservative seat in Nottinghamshire in 1906. The Conservatives won that seat continuously since 1885 and the South Nottinghamshire seat continuously since 1832 (in 1832 and 1835 one Tory and one Whig were returned unopposed). So the five Rushcliffe wards which are in the Newark seat are not only the only part of Nottinghamshire never to have had a Labour MP, but they have never had a Liberal MP and have not elected other than Conservatives in contested elections since before the Great Reform act. Of course this is one of the few parts of the country still with a Conservative controlled district council (and county council for a little while longer). Perhaps this is where Robert Waller 's fanatical Tory voter should move to.. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Aug 18, 2024 10:06:21 GMT
 | | Con | Lab | Ref | LD | Grn | Ind | Oth | | | | | | | | | | | | | Medway | 28.5% | 36.3% | 23.2% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 0.3% | 1.1% | | | Gravesham | 32.2% | 38.5% | 20.6% | 3.5% | 5.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | | | Dartford | 32.9% | 32.9% | 21.2% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 0.0% | 0.1% | | | Sevenoaks | 38.2% | 14.6% | 17.4% | 22.2% | 6.3% | 0.0% | 1.3% | | | Tonbridge & Malling | 37.2% | 22.6% | 17.8% | 9.0% | 11.7% | 0.1% | 1.5% | | | Tunbridge Wells | 29.0% | 12.0% | 12.9% | 40.6% | 4.5% | 1.0% | 0.0% | | | Maidstone | 32.6% | 27.2% | 20.1% | 11.0% | 8.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% | | | Swale | 27.5% | 29.3% | 24.4% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 1.0% | 5.8% | | | Ashford | 33.8% | 30.0% | 21.1% | 5.2% | 8.3% | 0.0% | 1.6% | | | Folkestone & Hythe | 26.7% | 33.1% | 24.4% | 4.5% | 9.7% | 0.0% | 1.6% | | | Dover | 24.3% | 38.5% | 22.8% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 1.5% | 0.6% | | | Canterbury | 26.9% | 37.9% | 16.9% | 7.2% | 10.7% | 0.0% | 0.4% | | | Thanet | 26.7% | 36.8% | 21.2% | 3.7% | 9.9% | 1.7% | 0.0% | |
| | | | | | | | | | Kent | 30.4% | 30.1% | 20.4% | 9.8% | 7.8% | 0.4% | 1.1% | |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 18, 2024 10:20:23 GMT
In every Labour landslide which has reduced the Conservatives to a single seat in Nottinghamshire, Bingham has been in that Conservative seat. 1945 it was in Newark, 1966 in Carlton, 1997 in Rushcliffe, 2024 back in Newark Newark (which also included this area) was also the only Conservative seat in Nottinghamshire in 1906. The Conservatives won that seat continuously since 1885 and the South Nottinghamshire seat continuously since 1832 (in 1832 and 1835 one Tory and one Whig were returned unopposed). So the five Rushcliffe wards which are in the Newark seat are not only the only part of Nottinghamshire never to have had a Labour MP, but they have never had a Liberal MP and have not elected other than Conservatives in contested elections since before the Great Reform act. Of course this is one of the few parts of the country still with a Conservative controlled district council (and county council for a little while longer). Perhaps this is where Robert Waller 's fanatical Tory voter should move to.. Newark Jenrick offers a new arc. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Aug 18, 2024 11:20:15 GMT
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,952
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Post by The Bishop on Aug 18, 2024 11:30:29 GMT
How close was Dartford district then  |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Aug 18, 2024 12:22:00 GMT
How close was Dartford district then 10 votes. Fair to say then that it might have gone either way - pretty clear Dartford will have been held on the previous boundaries though (when it also included a ward from Sevenoaks district |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 18, 2024 14:17:25 GMT
| | Con | Lab | Ref | LD | Grn | Ind | Oth | | | | | | | | | | | | | Medway | 28.5% | 36.3% | 23.2% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 0.3% | 1.1% | | | Gravesham | 32.2% | 38.5% | 20.6% | 3.5% | 5.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | | | Dartford | 32.9% | 32.9% | 21.2% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 0.0% | 0.1% | | | Sevenoaks | 38.2% | 14.6% | 17.4% | 22.2% | 6.3% | 0.0% | 1.3% | | | Tonbridge & Malling | 37.2% | 22.6% | 17.8% | 9.0% | 11.7% | 0.1% | 1.5% | | | Tunbridge Wells | 29.0% | 12.0% | 12.9% | 40.6% | 4.5% | 1.0% | 0.0% | | | Maidstone | 32.6% | 27.2% | 20.1% | 11.0% | 8.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% | | | Swale | 27.5% | 29.3% | 24.4% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 1.0% | 5.8% | | | Ashford | 33.8% | 30.0% | 21.1% | 5.2% | 8.3% | 0.0% | 1.6% | | | Folkestone & Hythe | 26.7% | 33.1% | 24.4% | 4.5% | 9.7% | 0.0% | 1.6% | | | Dover | 24.3% | 38.5% | 22.8% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 1.5% | 0.6% | | | Canterbury | 26.9% | 37.9% | 16.9% | 7.2% | 10.7% | 0.0% | 0.4% | | | Thanet | 26.7% | 36.8% | 21.2% | 3.7% | 9.9% | 1.7% | 0.0% | |
| | | | | | | | | | Kent | 30.4% | 30.1% | 20.4% | 9.8% | 7.8% | 0.4% | 1.1% | |
Reform winning areas that close to Canterbury somewhat illustrates how unique Canterbury is within the context of its larger District and Kent as a whole. The 2001 result there when Labour advanced closer still from their 1997 respectable silver medal tells you a lot about the underlying trends in the cathedral city. The Isle of Thanet really is an island of blue separated by a blood red moat from the rest of the Garden of England. Reform must've been disappointed not to take a seat in the county - I thought they could win Isle of Thanet, Rochester or Sittingbourne, but they didn't. Thanks for this map. |
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Post by batman on Aug 18, 2024 14:20:50 GMT
I am still chuckling at the question a few weeks ago asking if Kent was gammon.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 18, 2024 14:25:32 GMT
I am still chuckling at the question a few weeks ago asking if Kent was gammon. The Reform areas just might be. Gammon's what my Kentish friend says. He's from Maidstone (parents still there). He's Green (Labour supporter under Corbyn). Of course, gammon's pink not turquoise! Tories lucky holding Isle of Thanet. |
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Aug 18, 2024 16:34:08 GMT
| | Lab | Con | LD | Grn | Ref | Ind | WP | Oth | | | | | | | | | | | | Havering | 30.3% | 31.8% | 4.4% | 6.1% | 25.7% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.2% | | Barking & Dagenham | 45.9% | 13.1% | 2.6% | 12.6% | 16.3% | 2.7% | 6.0% | 0.8% | | Redbridge | 36.3% | 20.2% | 3.4% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 24.8% | 1.5% | 0.4% | | Waltham Forest | 46.3% | 15.0% | 4.0% | 14.1% | 5.0% | 12.5% | 2.5% | 0.7% | | Newham | 46.9% | 9.7% | 3.9% | 12.5% | 5.3% | 19.0% | 2.0% | 0.7% | | Tower Hamlets | 39.5% | 7.2% | 9.1% | 14.5% | 5.9% | 20.4% | 2.5% | 0.7% | | Hackney | 59.0% | 6.6% | 4.4% | 23.1% | 3.6% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 0.7% | | Islington | 42.9% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 10.7% | 5.5% | 28.0% | 0.0% | 0.8% | | Camden | 49.0% | 12.9% | 8.8% | 11.8% | 6.2% | 10.3% | 0.0% | 0.9% | | City of London | 40.6% | 25.7% | 12.7% | 9.6% | 7.4% | 0.5% | 2.0% | 1.5% | | Westminster | 44.4% | 26.9% | 9.1% | 8.5% | 6.3% | 1.6% | 2.8% | 0.4% | | Kensington & Chelsea | 37.0% | 38.0% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 3.3% | 0.2% | 1.3% | | Hammersmith & Fulham | 51.4% | 24.8% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 5.8% | 0.1% | 1.5% | 1.0% | | Haringey | 58.8% | 6.8% | 9.4% | 16.0% | 3.8% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 1.1% | | Enfield | 48.7% | 20.5% | 6.6% | 9.4% | 9.8% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 0.7% | | Barnet | 42.6% | 35.4% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 0.3% | 1.1% | 1.1% | | Brent | 46.5% | 23.8% | 7.5% | 9.3% | 5.2% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 0.0% | | Harrow | 35.6% | 41.3% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 0.6% | 0.0% | | Hillingdon | 39.8% | 33.8% | 4.7% | 7.3% | 12.1% | 0.0% | 1.7% | 0.5% | | Ealing | 47.3% | 17.5% | 8.4% | 10.1% | 7.1% | 2.2% | 6.7% | 0.8% | | Hounslow | 43.4% | 22.3% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 10.2% | 3.6% | 5.2% | 0.4% | | Richmond | 11.9% | 19.1% | 54.8% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.4% | | Kingston | 12.9% | 19.0% | 51.3% | 5.5% | 8.6% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.5% | | Sutton | 15.4% | 27.6% | 39.9% | 3.4% | 12.5% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.3% | | Croydon | 44.8% | 26.8% | 8.9% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 0.1% | 1.2% | 0.6% | | Merton | 39.2% | 17.8% | 25.8% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 0.2% | 1.5% | 0.5% | | Wandsworth | 51.2% | 21.5% | 10.1% | 9.2% | 5.6% | 0.3% | 1.2% | 0.8% | | Lambeth | 56.3% | 8.8% | 11.9% | 17.6% | 4.3% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.3% | | Southwark | 54.8% | 7.3% | 13.3% | 16.0% | 6.1% | 1.5% | 0.1% | 1.0% | | Lewisham | 57.5% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 18.3% | 6.1% | 0.2% | 1.1% | 1.6% | | Greenwich | 53.9% | 15.3% | 6.7% | 10.1% | 11.5% | 0.8% | 1.6% | 0.2% | | Bexley | 35.2% | 32.4% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 21.9% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% | | Bromley | 36.8% | 32.0% | 9.1% | 6.1% | 15.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.2% |
| | | | | | | | | | London | 43.0% | 20.6% | 11.0% | 10.0% | 8.7% | 4.5% | 1.6% | 0.6% |
Bromley wtf.. So that's three boroughs voting Conservative, three Lib Dem and 26 plus the city for Labour. Havering and Kensington & Chelsea are close enough that they could conceivably have gone the other way, therefore only Harrow clearly in the Conservative column Hopefully with the conSent of Pete Whitehead i augmented this:  |
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Post by ccoleman on Aug 19, 2024 5:08:55 GMT
I find it interesting that the Lib Dems have considerably less strength in Tonbridge than in Tunbridge Wells and Sevenoaks.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 19, 2024 6:05:05 GMT
I find it interesting that the Lib Dems have considerably less strength in Tonbridge than in Tunbridge Wells and Sevenoaks. Tories have a Ton of supporters. Plus Tugendhat’s a dripping wet centrist. That’s my analysis of it anyway. Tunbridge Wells didn’t have an incumbent. Sevenoaks - have you heard of Swanley? |
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