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Post by Pete Whitehead on Aug 13, 2024 19:24:40 GMT
indeed. I have a friend who has moved there quite recently & it has a very good Harveys pub. A visit cannot be long delayed to remind me how much of a "dump" it is I've never been to Uckfield although (as you probably know) I did live in Brighton for a brief period and toured Sussex quite extensively at that time. I did visit Hailsham and found that to be quite surprisingly ordinary. I wouldn't necessarily describe it as a 'dump' but if Tim Jones did so (and he probably did), I would see where he was coming from.. |
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Post by heslingtonian on Aug 13, 2024 19:25:37 GMT
Number of MPs elected with more than 20k votes, 2019: Conservative 340 (out of 365 total MPs) Labour 146 (out of 202 total) Lib Dem 8 (out of 11 total) SNP 36 (out of 48 total) Number of MPs elected with more than 20k votes, 2024: Conservative 13 (out of 121 total MPs) Labour 118 (out of 411 total) Lib Dem 56 (out of 72 total) SNP 0 (out of 9 total) That's quite striking, and I think only reinforces the point that the Lib Dem contingent is the strongest. The 13 Conservative seats with votes over 20k: Harrow East 25,466 Godalming & Ash 23,293 Richmond & Northallerton 23,059 Arundel & South Downs 22,001 Hertsmere 21,451 Ruislip Northwood Pinner 21,366 Rutland & Stamford 21,248 Newark 20,968 Wetherby & Easingwold 20,597 Tonbridge 20,517 Stockton West 20,372 Weald of Kent 20,202 Mid Buckinghamshire 20,150 My reading of this list is they fall into three categories: Seats with large Hindu and Jewish voter numbers - Harrow East, Ruislip Northwood Pinner and Hertsmere Seats with high candidate personal votes - Godalming & Ash, Newark, Richmond & Northallerton, Stockton West, Tonbridge Very safe Conservative seats - rest |
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Post by batman on Aug 13, 2024 19:31:34 GMT
indeed. I have a friend who has moved there quite recently & it has a very good Harveys pub. A visit cannot be long delayed to remind me how much of a "dump" it is I've never been to Uckfield although (as you probably know) I did live in Brighton for a brief period and toured Sussex quite extensively at that time. I did visit Hailsham and found that to be quite surprisingly ordinary. I wouldn't necessarily describe it as a 'dump' but if Tim Jones did so (and he probably did), I would see where he was coming from.. Hailsham has a surprisingly down-at-heel & unprosperous-looking town centre. I went there too as part of the Harveys Hop. I'd say Uckfield is a rather nicer town than Hailsham. Heathfield is upmarket of both of them |
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Aug 13, 2024 19:54:39 GMT
Pardon my ignorance Pete, but are the two blobs of red north-east of Brighton Uckfield? I know the Boundary Commission made a few difficult choices, but i didn’t know they'd created that! |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Aug 13, 2024 20:09:48 GMT
The 13 Conservative seats with votes over 20k: Harrow East 25,466 Godalming & Ash 23,293 Richmond & Northallerton 23,059 Arundel & South Downs 22,001 Hertsmere 21,451 Ruislip Northwood Pinner 21,366 Rutland & Stamford 21,248 Newark 20,968 Wetherby & Easingwold 20,597 Tonbridge 20,517 Stockton West 20,372 Weald of Kent 20,202 Mid Buckinghamshire 20,150 My reading of this list is they fall into three categories: Seats with large Hindu and Jewish voter numbers - Harrow East, Ruislip Northwood Pinner and Hertsmere Seats with high candidate personal votes - Godalming & Ash, Newark, Richmond & Northallerton, Stockton West, Tonbridge Very safe Conservative seats - rest There's some crossover. I think Tonbridge would always have been a very safe Conservative seat on the current boundaries and Richmond has always been so (of course it has had very high profile MPs for a long while now, although its hard to believe that Leon Brittan enjoyed a huge personal vote there). Ruislip, Nortwood & Pinner would certainly historically have been one of the safest of Conservative seats but there's no doubt it had trended away over the last couple of decades or so and the large Hindu population has reversed that. It certainly does show again that whatever one thinks of him (and i'm hardly a huge fan myself), Jeremy Hunt is a formidable local campaigner |
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john07
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Post by john07 on Aug 13, 2024 20:14:25 GMT
I've never been to Uckfield although (as you probably know) I did live in Brighton for a brief period and toured Sussex quite extensively at that time. I did visit Hailsham and found that to be quite surprisingly ordinary. I wouldn't necessarily describe it as a 'dump' but if Tim Jones did so (and he probably did), I would see where he was coming from.. Hailsham has a surprisingly down-at-heel & unprosperous-looking town centre. I went there too as part of the Harveys Hop. I'd say Uckfield is a rather nicer town than Hailsham. Heathfield is upmarket of both of them Hailshaw conjures up images of Quentin Hogg going around ringing that bell. Mind you Uckfield makes think about Les Huckfield. |
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Post by where2travel on Aug 13, 2024 20:41:07 GMT
The 13 Conservative seats with votes over 20k: Harrow East 25,466 Godalming & Ash 23,293 Richmond & Northallerton 23,059 Arundel & South Downs 22,001 Hertsmere 21,451 Ruislip Northwood Pinner 21,366 Rutland & Stamford 21,248 Newark 20,968 Wetherby & Easingwold 20,597 Tonbridge 20,517 Stockton West 20,372 Weald of Kent 20,202 Mid Buckinghamshire 20,150 My reading of this list is they fall into three categories: Seats with large Hindu and Jewish voter numbers - Harrow East, Ruislip Northwood Pinner and Hertsmere Seats with high candidate personal votes - Godalming & Ash, Newark, Richmond & Northallerton, Stockton West, Tonbridge Very safe Conservative seats - rest Why does Matt Vickers in Stockton West have a high personal vote advantage? It's clearly a very impressive result as it's in the top Tory lists - although over 40% and 20K vote shares are likely to go together. A 2K and 4% majority don't paint the same picture but are probably good in themselves given he's the only Tory left in the North East of England. |
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aargauer
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Post by aargauer on Aug 13, 2024 20:43:00 GMT
My reading of this list is they fall into three categories: Seats with large Hindu and Jewish voter numbers - Harrow East, Ruislip Northwood Pinner and Hertsmere Seats with high candidate personal votes - Godalming & Ash, Newark, Richmond & Northallerton, Stockton West, Tonbridge Very safe Conservative seats - rest Why does Matt Vickers in Stockton West have a high personal vote advantage? It's clearly a very impressive result as it's in the top Tory lists - although over 40% and 20K vote shares are likely to go together. A 2K and 4% majority don't paint the same picture but are probably good in themselves given he's the only Tory left in the North East of England. On its current boundaries it's a pretty safe seat by any normal standards. |
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Post by heslingtonian on Aug 13, 2024 21:15:58 GMT
Newark feels a bit of an outlier on the list as I would expect it is considerably less prosperous than the other dozen seats. Jenrick must be a decent local campaigner.
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Post by bjornhattan on Aug 13, 2024 21:18:56 GMT
I've never been to Uckfield although (as you probably know) I did live in Brighton for a brief period and toured Sussex quite extensively at that time. I did visit Hailsham and found that to be quite surprisingly ordinary. I wouldn't necessarily describe it as a 'dump' but if Tim Jones did so (and he probably did), I would see where he was coming from.. Hailsham has a surprisingly down-at-heel & unprosperous-looking town centre. I went there too as part of the Harveys Hop. I'd say Uckfield is a rather nicer town than Hailsham. Heathfield is upmarket of both of them The ward of Hailsham East, in particular, seems to centre on a large and deprived council estate. My model agrees with Pete that it was Reform leaning (and also has Reform ahead in Hailsham Central, albeit only by 0.1% over the Tories so practically speaking far too close to call). |
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Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
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Post by Khunanup on Aug 13, 2024 22:20:32 GMT
Newark feels a bit of an outlier on the list as I would expect it is considerably less prosperous than the other dozen seats. Jenrick must be a decent local campaigner. He's not. If anything he has a negative personal vote. So you'll need to look elsewhere for your reasons why his result what it was. |
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Khunanup
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Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
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Post by Khunanup on Aug 13, 2024 22:37:24 GMT
I've never been to Uckfield although (as you probably know) I did live in Brighton for a brief period and toured Sussex quite extensively at that time. I did visit Hailsham and found that to be quite surprisingly ordinary. I wouldn't necessarily describe it as a 'dump' but if Tim Jones did so (and he probably did), I would see where he was coming from.. Hailsham has a surprisingly down-at-heel & unprosperous-looking town centre. I went there too as part of the Harveys Hop. I'd say Uckfield is a rather nicer town than Hailsham. Heathfield is upmarket of both of them It's not surprising at all. Hailsham is completely in the orbit of Eastbourne and few people have a 'reason' to go there. With it never having had much of a centre the decline of the high street has probably become more acute (I haven't been there for years). And it's always been regarded as somewhat down at heel (rather like Newhaven) within East Sussex (which of course is in relevant terms, it's hardly like much of Hastings or a Sidley). Heathfield and Uckfield are regarded as more upmarket, the former especially (and both are centres in their own right for their hinterland). |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 14, 2024 1:23:00 GMT
My reading of this list is they fall into three categories: Seats with large Hindu and Jewish voter numbers - Harrow East, Ruislip Northwood Pinner and Hertsmere Seats with high candidate personal votes - Godalming & Ash, Newark, Richmond & Northallerton, Stockton West, Tonbridge Very safe Conservative seats - rest Why does Matt Vickers in Stockton West have a high personal vote advantage? It's clearly a very impressive result as it's in the top Tory lists - although over 40% and 20K vote shares are likely to go together. A 2K and 4% majority don't paint the same picture but are probably good in themselves given he's the only Tory left in the North East of England. Lord Houchen should've stood there, honestly. |
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Post by heslingtonian on Aug 14, 2024 5:37:34 GMT
Newark feels a bit of an outlier on the list as I would expect it is considerably less prosperous than the other dozen seats. Jenrick must be a decent local campaigner. He's not. If anything he has a negative personal vote. So you'll need to look elsewhere for your reasons why his result what it was. For the avoidance of doubt, I am no fan of Jenrick whatsoever. However, objectively he did well to hold his seat last month (which was Labour in 1997) with relative ease. |
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Post by heslingtonian on Aug 14, 2024 5:39:14 GMT
Why does Matt Vickers in Stockton West have a high personal vote advantage? It's clearly a very impressive result as it's in the top Tory lists - although over 40% and 20K vote shares are likely to go together. A 2K and 4% majority don't paint the same picture but are probably good in themselves given he's the only Tory left in the North East of England. Lord Houchen should've stood there, honestly. Why do you think he didn't? The clue may be in your post. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 14, 2024 5:52:42 GMT
Lord Houchen should've stood there, honestly. Why do you think he didn't? The clue may be in your post. The Peerages Act 1963 says hi. |
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YL
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Post by YL on Aug 14, 2024 6:52:28 GMT
The Peerages Act 1963 says hi. No it doesn't, because Ben Houchen has not recently inherited a hereditary peerage or reached the age of 21 already holding one, and neither of those things would now stop him from becoming an MP anyway. Now, the House of Lords Reform Act 2014 might, as it would allow him to resign from the Lords if he wanted to try to become an MP, but given the profile he has in his current post it is reasonable to ask why he would want to. |
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Post by batman on Aug 14, 2024 8:30:50 GMT
Pardon my ignorance Pete, but are the two blobs of red north-east of Brighton Uckfield? I know the Boundary Commission made a few difficult choices, but i didn’t know they'd created that! you big silly! |
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Post by batman on Aug 14, 2024 8:34:26 GMT
He's not. If anything he has a negative personal vote. So you'll need to look elsewhere for your reasons why his result what it was. For the avoidance of doubt, I am no fan of Jenrick whatsoever. However, objectively he did well to hold his seat last month (which was Labour in 1997) with relative ease. The Newark seat won by Labour in 1997 included Retford, but since 2010 that has been in Bassetlaw. The present seat is thus notably more Tory than it was before then. Had Labour been able to contest the seat on the pre-2010 boundaries I'd have fancied their chances. Although Retford is basically a marginal town, it would have voted heavily Labour in both 1997 & 2024. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Aug 14, 2024 9:29:21 GMT
In every Labour landslide which has reduced the Conservatives to a single seat in Nottinghamshire, Bingham has been in that Conservative seat. 1945 it was in Newark, 1966 in Carlton, 1997 in Rushcliffe, 2024 back in Newark
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