YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,913
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Post by YL on Aug 12, 2024 17:24:15 GMT
Just to explain some simple arithmetic - getting rid of LD MPs does not get Labour out of office, you have to get defeat Labour MPs to do that. I think you misunderstand me, if I may say so. Usually when Labour suffers a defeat/is voted out of office, the Tories are more likely to pick up Lib Dem seats. Seats like Oxford W & Abingdon, Winchester, Teignbridge/Newton Abbott & Montgomeryshire (I know) went back to the Tories in 2010. I could go back to 1979 and 1970 for more examples. There's some truth to this, but of course the big Lib Dem loss of seats to the Tories was in 2015, not 2010. A lot of the seats lost in 2010 either had the incumbent under a cloud or retiring. (Retirements have always been a problem for the Lib Dems; it was when the Tories made no progress in Sheffield Hallam in 2005 after Richard Allan's retirement that it started to become clear that their losses in 1997 and 2001 were no blip, though what actually happened next would still have seemed astonishing in 2005.) I think there's a pretty good case that the scale of their losses to the Lib Dems in 1997, 2001 and 2005, and the subsequent stickiness of those Lib Dem MPs, prevented the Tories winning a majority in 2010. It also seems to me that the Liberals held up better than might have been expected in 1979, given events. (Though I have no memory of the 1979 election and don't really know what was expected at the time. Surely Thorpe's own loss was no surprise, though?) 1970 was clearly a bad result, though. |
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Post by batman on Aug 12, 2024 17:34:59 GMT
No-one was totally sure whether Thorpe would win or not ; he was after all a well-established MP with a majority of several thousand and a national celebrity. But few people were exactly astonished when he lost. The announcement was made rather slowly & repetitively by the returning officer.
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Post by michaelarden on Aug 12, 2024 20:57:49 GMT
I think the point being that the vast majority of Lib Dem MPs were elected on an anti-Tory tide. If that tide goes out (and that's a pretty big if given the Tory leadership contenders) then the Lib Dems along with Labour will go out on it too. The Lib Dems did build up a lot of very strong majorities though. Think even if the national tide turns to favour the Tories, the Lib Dems will probably manage to keep most of their MPs. It's an interesting point and one I've seen senior Lib Dems make and I guess there's some merit in it. I think Mark Pack quoted the average majority of Lib Dem MPs is 8,500. Which if memory serves me right is exactly the majority their current leader had going into the 2015 election. So I don't necessarily think it's the safety net some claim. With both Labour and the Lib Dems winning huge number of seats on very low vote shares (and a low turnout) the next election is likely to be as unlike the last as 2024 was to 2019. The old certainties are gone and I wouldn't want to read across anything from 2024 to 28/29. Jonathan Ashworth with a 22,000 majority must have thought with a Labour government incoming he was bob on for a cabinet position. One Labour landslide later he's whinging on the sidelines. |
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nyx
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,040
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Post by nyx on Aug 12, 2024 23:10:06 GMT
The Lib Dems did build up a lot of very strong majorities though. Think even if the national tide turns to favour the Tories, the Lib Dems will probably manage to keep most of their MPs. It's an interesting point and one I've seen senior Lib Dems make and I guess there's some merit in it. I think Mark Pack quoted the average majority of Lib Dem MPs is 8,500. Which if memory serves me right is exactly the majority their current leader had going into the 2015 election. So I don't necessarily think it's the safety net some claim. With both Labour and the Lib Dems winning huge number of seats on very low vote shares (and a low turnout) the next election is likely to be as unlike the last as 2024 was to 2019. The old certainties are gone and I wouldn't want to read across anything from 2024 to 28/29. Jonathan Ashworth with a 22,000 majority must have thought with a Labour government incoming he was bob on for a cabinet position. One Labour landslide later he's whinging on the sidelines. The low vote share point is an important one but it's a problem which is faced far more by Conservative MPs than it is by Labour/Lib Dem MPs. I agree that there's a very wide range of results we could see in the next election and I wouldn't feel confident making any sort of overall prediction until much closer to the time, but one of the predictions I'm reasonably confident making is that at least half of the constituencies which currently have Lib Dem MPs will continue to do so after 2029. Number of MPs elected with more than 40% of the vote, 2019: Conservative 360 (out of 365 total MPs) Labour 195 (out of 202 total) Lib Dem 9 (out of 11 total) SNP 45 (out of 48 total) Number of MPs elected with more than 40% of the vote, 2024: Conservative 18 (out of 121 total MPs) Labour 287 (out of 411 total) Lib Dem 53 (out of 72 total) SNP 2 (out of 9 total) |
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Post by michaelarden on Aug 13, 2024 9:16:04 GMT
It's an interesting point and one I've seen senior Lib Dems make and I guess there's some merit in it. I think Mark Pack quoted the average majority of Lib Dem MPs is 8,500. Which if memory serves me right is exactly the majority their current leader had going into the 2015 election. So I don't necessarily think it's the safety net some claim. With both Labour and the Lib Dems winning huge number of seats on very low vote shares (and a low turnout) the next election is likely to be as unlike the last as 2024 was to 2019. The old certainties are gone and I wouldn't want to read across anything from 2024 to 28/29. Jonathan Ashworth with a 22,000 majority must have thought with a Labour government incoming he was bob on for a cabinet position. One Labour landslide later he's whinging on the sidelines. The low vote share point is an important one but it's a problem which is faced far more by Conservative MPs than it is by Labour/Lib Dem MPs. I agree that there's a very wide range of results we could see in the next election and I wouldn't feel confident making any sort of overall prediction until much closer to the time, but one of the predictions I'm reasonably confident making is that at least half of the constituencies which currently have Lib Dem MPs will continue to do so after 2029. Number of MPs elected with more than 40% of the vote, 2019: Conservative 360 (out of 365 total MPs) Labour 195 (out of 202 total) Lib Dem 9 (out of 11 total) SNP 45 (out of 48 total) Number of MPs elected with more than 40% of the vote, 2024: Conservative 18 (out of 121 total MPs) Labour 287 (out of 411 total) Lib Dem 53 (out of 72 total) SNP 2 (out of 9 total) Sorry my point about low vote shares wasn't made clearly - I meant low national vote shares. The low turn out is also indicative of people staying at home. Whether that was biased towards Tory abstainers or Labour landslide apathy I don't think we know yet, but if it's majority Tory abstainers a million or so returning to the Tory fold next time across the board makes all those 40%+ shares look a lot more like 35% shares. I think the more important point is how many MPs are elected with fewer than 20,000 votes? |
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john07
Labour & Co-operative
Posts: 15,800 
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Post by john07 on Aug 13, 2024 9:56:06 GMT
The low vote share point is an important one but it's a problem which is faced far more by Conservative MPs than it is by Labour/Lib Dem MPs. I agree that there's a very wide range of results we could see in the next election and I wouldn't feel confident making any sort of overall prediction until much closer to the time, but one of the predictions I'm reasonably confident making is that at least half of the constituencies which currently have Lib Dem MPs will continue to do so after 2029. Number of MPs elected with more than 40% of the vote, 2019: Conservative 360 (out of 365 total MPs) Labour 195 (out of 202 total) Lib Dem 9 (out of 11 total) SNP 45 (out of 48 total) Number of MPs elected with more than 40% of the vote, 2024: Conservative 18 (out of 121 total MPs) Labour 287 (out of 411 total) Lib Dem 53 (out of 72 total) SNP 2 (out of 9 total) Sorry my point about low vote shares wasn't made clearly - I meant low national vote shares. The low turn out is also indicative of people staying at home. Whether that was biased towards Tory abstainers or Labour landslide apathy I don't think we know yet, but if it's majority Tory abstainers a million or so returning to the Tory fold next time across the board makes all those 40%+ shares look a lot more like 35% shares. I think the more important point is how many MPs are elected with fewer than 20,000 votes? The low national vote shares are partly indicative of a more fractured political landscape. Go back to 1951 and you see Labour losing an election despite gaining 48.8 of the votes cast. That is the highest post-war total for any party. Since then the general elections have involved more and more parties and the vote share for the winners has gone down throughout. In England there appear to be now five main blocs: Reform, Conservative, Lib Dem, Labour, and ( pro-Gaza) independents. In Scotland and Wales you can add SNP and Plaid. That is before we get to the fractured landscape in Northern Ireland. In that situation you are not going to see 40%+ vote shares for anyone. Also there was tactical voting on an industrial scale by Labour supporters in strong Lib Dem areas and vice versa elsewhere. The reasons for the low turnout are blindingly obvious too. The election was never perceived as being competitive. All credible opinion polls were predicting this from the start of the campaign. Hence many Conservative voters either stayed at home or indulged themselves with a vote for Reform. Similarly many general Labour supporters went for the Greens (not in Scotland obviously) or voted for indies. |
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Post by hullenedge on Aug 13, 2024 11:41:54 GMT
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nyx
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,040
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Post by nyx on Aug 13, 2024 11:57:41 GMT
The low vote share point is an important one but it's a problem which is faced far more by Conservative MPs than it is by Labour/Lib Dem MPs. I agree that there's a very wide range of results we could see in the next election and I wouldn't feel confident making any sort of overall prediction until much closer to the time, but one of the predictions I'm reasonably confident making is that at least half of the constituencies which currently have Lib Dem MPs will continue to do so after 2029. Number of MPs elected with more than 40% of the vote, 2019: Conservative 360 (out of 365 total MPs) Labour 195 (out of 202 total) Lib Dem 9 (out of 11 total) SNP 45 (out of 48 total) Number of MPs elected with more than 40% of the vote, 2024: Conservative 18 (out of 121 total MPs) Labour 287 (out of 411 total) Lib Dem 53 (out of 72 total) SNP 2 (out of 9 total) Sorry my point about low vote shares wasn't made clearly - I meant low national vote shares. The low turn out is also indicative of people staying at home. Whether that was biased towards Tory abstainers or Labour landslide apathy I don't think we know yet, but if it's majority Tory abstainers a million or so returning to the Tory fold next time across the board makes all those 40%+ shares look a lot more like 35% shares. I think the more important point is how many MPs are elected with fewer than 20,000 votes? Number of MPs elected with more than 20k votes, 2019: Conservative 340 (out of 365 total MPs) Labour 146 (out of 202 total) Lib Dem 8 (out of 11 total) SNP 36 (out of 48 total) Number of MPs elected with more than 20k votes, 2024: Conservative 13 (out of 121 total MPs) Labour 118 (out of 411 total) Lib Dem 56 (out of 72 total) SNP 0 (out of 9 total) That's quite striking, and I think only reinforces the point that the Lib Dem contingent is the strongest. |
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Post by edgbaston on Aug 13, 2024 12:18:14 GMT
I can’t believe people pick up a packet to write this stuff |
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Post by finsobruce on Aug 13, 2024 12:24:15 GMT
I can’t believe people pick up a packet to write this stuff You can prove anything with statistics pt 63 |
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Post by batman on Aug 13, 2024 12:27:54 GMT
Excluding Pitcher & Piano outlets, the nearest constituency to me that I know to have a Marstons pub is Spelthorne, and we didn't gain it.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Aug 13, 2024 17:26:58 GMT
 | | Con | Lab | LD | Ref | Grn | Ind | Oth | WP | | | | | | | | | | | | Brighton & Hove | 12.1% | 41.3% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 31.7% | 3.4% | 0.7% | |
| | | | | | | | | | Lewes | 25.3% | 14.4% | 42.3% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 1.4% | 1.3% | | | Eastbourne | 25.3% | 5.9% | 52.1% | 13.3% | 3.1% | 0.0% | 0.3% | | | Hastings | 21.2% | 44.4% | 4.2% | 15.3% | 13.5% | 0.3% | 1.2% | | | Rother | 33.1% | 28.9% | 7.9% | 16.9% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 0.9% | | | Wealden | 34.8% | 17.0% | 23.5% | 13.9% | 6.9% | 2.4% | 1.6% | |
| | | | | | | | | | East Sussex (CC) | 29.2% | 20.6% | 26.4% | 13.3% | 7.3% | 2.1% | 1.2% | |
| | | | | | | | | | East Sussex | 23.6% | 27.4% | 19.5% | 10.8% | 15.3% | 2.5% | 1.0% | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Mid Sussex | 31.4% | 18.0% | 33.7% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 1.7% | 1.9% | | | Adur | 25.2% | 44.5% | 6.3% | 15.7% | 6.7% | 1.6% | 0.0% | | | Worthing | 29.0% | 44.0% | 5.3% | 14.5% | 6.3% | 1.0% | 0.0% | | | Arun | 33.5% | 27.0% | 13.7% | 18.8% | 5.8% | 0.2% | 0.9% | | | Chichester | 30.5% | 8.4% | 42.1% | 13.8% | 4.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% | | | Horsham | 36.5% | 13.4% | 31.2% | 12.1% | 6.1% | 0.0% | 0.8% | | | Crawley | 26.8% | 38.2% | 4.8% | 18.5% | 5.7% | 0.0% | 0.6% | 5.3% |
| | | | | | | | | | West Sussex | 31.4% | 24.6% | 22.3% | 13.9% | 5.9% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.6% |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Sussex | 27.6% | 26.0% | 21.0% | 12.4% | 10.4% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
Obviously we all knew that was going to be the case, but East Sussex is still something to behold.. |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Aug 13, 2024 17:42:12 GMT
| | Con | Lab | LD | Ref | Grn | Ind | Oth | WP | | | | | | | | | | | | Brighton & Hove | 12.1% | 41.3% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 31.7% | 3.4% | 0.7% | |
| | | | | | | | | | Lewes | 25.3% | 14.4% | 42.3% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 1.4% | 1.3% | | | Eastbourne | 25.3% | 5.9% | 52.1% | 13.3% | 3.1% | 0.0% | 0.3% | | | Hastings | 21.2% | 44.4% | 4.2% | 15.3% | 13.5% | 0.3% | 1.2% | | | Rother | 33.1% | 28.9% | 7.9% | 16.9% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 0.9% | | | Wealden | 34.8% | 17.0% | 23.5% | 13.9% | 6.9% | 2.4% | 1.6% | |
| | | | | | | | | | East Sussex (CC) | 29.2% | 20.6% | 26.4% | 13.3% | 7.3% | 2.1% | 1.2% | |
| | | | | | | | | | East Sussex | 23.6% | 27.4% | 19.5% | 10.8% | 15.3% | 2.5% | 1.0% | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Mid Sussex | 31.4% | 18.0% | 33.7% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 1.7% | 1.9% | | | Adur | 25.2% | 44.5% | 6.3% | 15.7% | 6.7% | 1.6% | 0.0% | | | Worthing | 29.0% | 44.0% | 5.3% | 14.5% | 6.3% | 1.0% | 0.0% | | | Arun | 33.5% | 27.0% | 13.7% | 18.8% | 5.8% | 0.2% | 0.9% | | | Chichester | 30.5% | 8.4% | 42.1% | 13.8% | 4.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% | | | Horsham | 36.5% | 13.4% | 31.2% | 12.1% | 6.1% | 0.0% | 0.8% | | | Crawley | 26.8% | 38.2% | 4.8% | 18.5% | 5.7% | 0.0% | 0.6% | 5.3% |
| | | | | | | | | | West Sussex | 31.4% | 24.6% | 22.3% | 13.9% | 5.9% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.6% |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Sussex | 27.6% | 26.0% | 21.0% | 12.4% | 10.4% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
Obviously we all knew that was going to be the case, but East Sussex is still something to behold.. Excellent work - coastal elites abound here. Tory local election campaign update: fuck. |
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Post by heslingtonian on Aug 13, 2024 18:41:57 GMT
What's the solitary Reform win at a ward level in Sussex?
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Aug 13, 2024 18:46:46 GMT
What's the solitary Reform win at a ward level in Sussex? Hailsham East |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Aug 13, 2024 18:49:00 GMT
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Post by batman on Aug 13, 2024 18:55:59 GMT
Pardon my ignorance Pete, but are the two blobs of red north-east of Brighton Uckfield?
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Aug 13, 2024 18:58:44 GMT
Pardon my ignorance Pete, but are the two blobs of red north-east of Brighton Uckfield? It is indeed. I'm sure you'll remember from another place, Tim Jones used to always speak very highly of it.. |
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Post by heslingtonian on Aug 13, 2024 19:16:31 GMT
Sorry my point about low vote shares wasn't made clearly - I meant low national vote shares. The low turn out is also indicative of people staying at home. Whether that was biased towards Tory abstainers or Labour landslide apathy I don't think we know yet, but if it's majority Tory abstainers a million or so returning to the Tory fold next time across the board makes all those 40%+ shares look a lot more like 35% shares. I think the more important point is how many MPs are elected with fewer than 20,000 votes? Number of MPs elected with more than 20k votes, 2019: Conservative 340 (out of 365 total MPs) Labour 146 (out of 202 total) Lib Dem 8 (out of 11 total) SNP 36 (out of 48 total) Number of MPs elected with more than 20k votes, 2024: Conservative 13 (out of 121 total MPs) Labour 118 (out of 411 total) Lib Dem 56 (out of 72 total) SNP 0 (out of 9 total) That's quite striking, and I think only reinforces the point that the Lib Dem contingent is the strongest. The 13 Conservative seats with votes over 20k: Harrow East 25,466 Godalming & Ash 23,293 Richmond & Northallerton 23,059 Arundel & South Downs 22,001 Hertsmere 21,451 Ruislip Northwood Pinner 21,366 Rutland & Stamford 21,248 Newark 20,968 Wetherby & Easingwold 20,597 Tonbridge 20,517 Stockton West 20,372 Weald of Kent 20,202 Mid Buckinghamshire 20,150 |
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Post by batman on Aug 13, 2024 19:17:22 GMT
indeed. I have a friend who has moved there quite recently & it has a very good Harveys pub. A visit cannot be long delayed to remind me how much of a "dump" it is
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