J.G.Harston
Lib Dem
Leave-voting Brexit-supporting Liberal Democrat
Posts: 14,783 
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Post by J.G.Harston on Aug 7, 2024 20:58:59 GMT
I've never been to the Isle of Wight But have you ever been to me? |
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Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on Aug 7, 2024 21:09:12 GMT
I've never been to the Isle of Wight But have you ever been to me? I've been to paradise* *Preston Bus Station |
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Post by pepperminttea on Aug 10, 2024 8:53:45 GMT
I'm not too confident about all of this, but the Isle of Wight was just weird really..  | | Con | Lab | Ref | Grn | LD | Ind | Oth | | | | | | | | | | | | | Medina | 27.6% | 32.1% | 18.0% | 11.8% | 9.8% | 0.5% | 0.2% | | | South Wight | 33.1% | 23.8% | 20.1% | 13.7% | 8.4% | 0.7% | 0.1% | | | | | | | | | | | | | Isle of Wight | 30.0% | 28.5% | 18.9% | 12.6% | 9.2% | 0.6% | 0.2% | |
You mean the undivided Isle of Wight would have been a Conservative hold? I bet the Conservatives are kicking themselves over that one! Why would they? They've still got 1 seat from the island with the second being virtually certain to flip back once the national tide turns against Labour. Giving IOW 2 seats is undoubtedly good long-term for them. |
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Post by pepperminttea on Aug 10, 2024 9:01:50 GMT
 | | Con | Lab | LD | Ref | Grn | Ind | Oth | | | | | | | | | | | | | Rushmoor | 29.5% | 42.2% | 5.9% | 17.7% | 4.0% | 0.6% | 0.0% | | | Hart | 34.3% | 12.6% | 36.9% | 11.8% | 3.2% | 0.5% | 0.6% | | | Basingstoke & Deane | 33.8% | 33.5% | 12.5% | 13.0% | 6.1% | 1.0% | 0.1% | | | Test Valley | 37.4% | 15.2% | 28.6% | 14.0% | 4.1% | 0.6% | 0.0% | | | Winchester | 29.1% | 7.4% | 48.6% | 9.4% | 4.7% | 0.5% | 0.3% | | | East Hampshire | 37.8% | 10.8% | 32.2% | 13.2% | 4.9% | 0.9% | 0.2% | | | Havant | 32.7% | 28.2% | 9.2% | 23.1% | 6.3% | 0.1% | 0.5% | | | Portsmouth | 24.0% | 41.4% | 9.8% | 17.6% | 6.2% | 0.0% | 0.9% | | | Gosport | 39.3% | 28.3% | 9.3% | 16.9% | 4.6% | 0.9% | 0.7% | | | Fareham | 38.1% | 20.5% | 18.8% | 17.9% | 4.0% | 0.5% | 0.3% | | | Eastleigh | 31.9% | 15.5% | 33.5% | 13.6% | 4.7% | 0.8% | 0.0% | | | Southampton | 23.4% | 39.9% | 11.8% | 15.4% | 8.2% | 0.0% | 1.2% | | | New Forest | 36.9% | 21.5% | 16.8% | 16.6% | 6.5% | 0.0% | 1.6% | |
| | | | | | | | | | Hampshire | 32.6% | 24.6% | 21.2% | 15.2% | 5.4% | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
Re. Havant is it possible that Labour would have won Hayling Island whilst the Tory vote held up a bit better than the model forecasts on the mainland? From what I remember Hayling was somewhere they'd become especially unpopular over the issue of sewage, they lost all the district council seats there if memory serves. Very interesting pieces of work btw! Thanks for sharing! |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Aug 10, 2024 10:51:10 GMT
| | Con | Lab | LD | Ref | Grn | Ind | Oth | | | | | | | | | | | | | Rushmoor | 29.5% | 42.2% | 5.9% | 17.7% | 4.0% | 0.6% | 0.0% | | | Hart | 34.3% | 12.6% | 36.9% | 11.8% | 3.2% | 0.5% | 0.6% | | | Basingstoke & Deane | 33.8% | 33.5% | 12.5% | 13.0% | 6.1% | 1.0% | 0.1% | | | Test Valley | 37.4% | 15.2% | 28.6% | 14.0% | 4.1% | 0.6% | 0.0% | | | Winchester | 29.1% | 7.4% | 48.6% | 9.4% | 4.7% | 0.5% | 0.3% | | | East Hampshire | 37.8% | 10.8% | 32.2% | 13.2% | 4.9% | 0.9% | 0.2% | | | Havant | 32.7% | 28.2% | 9.2% | 23.1% | 6.3% | 0.1% | 0.5% | | | Portsmouth | 24.0% | 41.4% | 9.8% | 17.6% | 6.2% | 0.0% | 0.9% | | | Gosport | 39.3% | 28.3% | 9.3% | 16.9% | 4.6% | 0.9% | 0.7% | | | Fareham | 38.1% | 20.5% | 18.8% | 17.9% | 4.0% | 0.5% | 0.3% | | | Eastleigh | 31.9% | 15.5% | 33.5% | 13.6% | 4.7% | 0.8% | 0.0% | | | Southampton | 23.4% | 39.9% | 11.8% | 15.4% | 8.2% | 0.0% | 1.2% | | | New Forest | 36.9% | 21.5% | 16.8% | 16.6% | 6.5% | 0.0% | 1.6% | |
| | | | | | | | | | Hampshire | 32.6% | 24.6% | 21.2% | 15.2% | 5.4% | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
Re. Havant is it possible that Labour would have won Hayling Island whilst the Tory vote held up a bit better than the model forecasts on the mainland? From what I remember Hayling was somewhere they'd become especially unpopular over the issue of sewage, they lost all the district council seats there if memory serves. - and I have them close in Hayling East but given the 'normal' patterns of voting there, I'd think that only really manifests to the degree that it has in local election. It's difficlut to model this seat but my figures show a major levelling of support for the two main parties, rather than a complete inversion and of course Labour have also done well lately in some mainland wards in Havant proper like St Faiths. So my figures show Labour carrying Leigh Park (with Reform second) and narrow Conservativce leads elsewhere whereas in 1997 (when Labour were not as close to winning but had a higher vote share) I would think they were massively ahead in Leigh Park and much further behind elsewhere. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Aug 10, 2024 11:01:54 GMT
 | | LD | Con | Lab | Ref | Grn | Ind | Oth | | | | | | | | | | | | | South Oxfordshire | 42.9% | 30.9% | 10.1% | 10.5% | 4.3% | 0.4% | 0.8% | | | Vale of White Horse | 46.3% | 26.9% | 9.9% | 11.2% | 4.5% | 0.3% | 0.8% | | | West Oxfordshire | 34.9% | 32.1% | 15.9% | 12.0% | 3.9% | 0.7% | 0.5% | | | Cherwell | 23.5% | 29.7% | 27.8% | 12.4% | 5.1% | 0.9% | 0.7% | | | Oxford | 20.1% | 12.6% | 41.4% | 1.5% | 12.3% | 8.7% | 3.4% | |
| | | | | | | | | | Oxfordshire | 34.2% | 27.1% | 20.1% | 9.9% | 5.8% | 1.9% | 1.1% | |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Aug 10, 2024 11:04:09 GMT
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Post by heslingtonian on Aug 10, 2024 11:15:11 GMT
| | LD | Con | Lab | Ref | Grn | Ind | Oth | | | | | | | | | | | | | South Oxfordshire | 42.9% | 30.9% | 10.1% | 10.5% | 4.3% | 0.4% | 0.8% | | | Vale of White Horse | 46.3% | 26.9% | 9.9% | 11.2% | 4.5% | 0.3% | 0.8% | | | West Oxfordshire | 34.9% | 32.1% | 15.9% | 12.0% | 3.9% | 0.7% | 0.5% | | | Cherwell | 23.5% | 29.7% | 27.8% | 12.4% | 5.1% | 0.9% | 0.7% | | | Oxford | 20.1% | 12.6% | 41.4% | 1.5% | 12.3% | 8.7% | 3.4% | |
| | | | | | | | | | Oxfordshire | 34.2% | 27.1% | 20.1% | 9.9% | 5.8% | 1.9% | 1.1% | |
The extent of Lib Demification of Oxfordshire at District, County and now National level over the last ten years is truly remarkable. I would say it's now arguably the strongest county for the Lib Dems in the whole of England which is remarkable given it was the political home of David Cameron and Boris Johnson for many years. Any idea why this is the case? It's not as if any of the recently defeated Oxfordshire Conservative MPs were obviously especially offensive. I have been told a lot of the Lib Dem success in Oxfordshire is down to Neil Fawcett being a campaigning genius but there must be more to it. |
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swanarcadian
Conservative & Unionist
Posts: 2,669
Member is Online
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Post by swanarcadian on Aug 10, 2024 11:51:28 GMT
| | LD | Con | Lab | Ref | Grn | Ind | Oth | | | | | | | | | | | | | South Oxfordshire | 42.9% | 30.9% | 10.1% | 10.5% | 4.3% | 0.4% | 0.8% | | | Vale of White Horse | 46.3% | 26.9% | 9.9% | 11.2% | 4.5% | 0.3% | 0.8% | | | West Oxfordshire | 34.9% | 32.1% | 15.9% | 12.0% | 3.9% | 0.7% | 0.5% | | | Cherwell | 23.5% | 29.7% | 27.8% | 12.4% | 5.1% | 0.9% | 0.7% | | | Oxford | 20.1% | 12.6% | 41.4% | 1.5% | 12.3% | 8.7% | 3.4% | |
| | | | | | | | | | Oxfordshire | 34.2% | 27.1% | 20.1% | 9.9% | 5.8% | 1.9% | 1.1% | |
The extent of Lib Demification of Oxfordshire at District, County and now National level over the last ten years is truly remarkable. I would say it's now arguably the strongest county for the Lib Dems in the whole of England which is remarkable given it was the political home of David Cameron and Boris Johnson for many years. Any idea why this is the case? It's not as if any of the recently defeated Oxfordshire Conservative MPs were obviously especially offensive. I have been told a lot of the Lib Dem success in Oxfordshire is down to Neil Fawcett being a campaigning genius but there must be more to it. As far as the GE was concerned, tactical voting. People just wanted us out and saw voting Lib Dem as the way to do it. The question is now whether the Lib Dems can keep it up; when the voters are ready to vote Labour out of office, things could change back again quickly. But I get the impression Tory voters here are more sympathetic than average to the left, Remain supporting side of the party. |
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Clark
Forum Regular
Posts: 744
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Post by Clark on Aug 10, 2024 12:49:34 GMT
Tories failing to carry Sonning (Henley & Thame) is a surprise.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Aug 10, 2024 13:44:40 GMT
May lives in the Berkshire town of Sonning. The town is divided from Sonning Common by the River Thames which is the county boundary.
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birkinabe
Non-Aligned
winning here
Posts: 155
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Post by birkinabe on Aug 10, 2024 14:14:44 GMT
Berinsfield being one of the strongest wards in Henley and Thame for the LDs strikes me as simultaneously being very odd but also the exact kind of thing that tactical voting would result in (it not being Reform's strongest ward there seems unlikely though IMO).
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Post by No Offence Alan on Aug 10, 2024 14:45:11 GMT
The extent of Lib Demification of Oxfordshire at District, County and now National level over the last ten years is truly remarkable. I would say it's now arguably the strongest county for the Lib Dems in the whole of England which is remarkable given it was the political home of David Cameron and Boris Johnson for many years. Any idea why this is the case? It's not as if any of the recently defeated Oxfordshire Conservative MPs were obviously especially offensive. I have been told a lot of the Lib Dem success in Oxfordshire is down to Neil Fawcett being a campaigning genius but there must be more to it. As far as the GE was concerned, tactical voting. People just wanted us out and saw voting Lib Dem as the way to do it. The question is now whether the Lib Dems can keep it up; when the voters are ready to vote Labour out of office, things could change back again quickly. But I get the impression Tory voters here are more sympathetic than average to the left, Remain supporting side of the party. Just to explain some simple arithmetic - getting rid of LD MPs does not get Labour out of office, you have to get defeat Labour MPs to do that. |
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Post by johnloony on Aug 10, 2024 15:05:50 GMT
As far as the GE was concerned, tactical voting. People just wanted us out and saw voting Lib Dem as the way to do it. The question is now whether the Lib Dems can keep it up; when the voters are ready to vote Labour out of office, things could change back again quickly. But I get the impression Tory voters here are more sympathetic than average to the left, Remain supporting side of the party. Just to explain some simple arithmetic - getting rid of LD MPs does not get Labour out of office, you have to get defeat Labour MPs to do that. Getting rid of Lib Dem MPs (and replacing them with Conservatives) reduces the danger of the Lib Dems propping up a minority Labour government in a hung parliament situation, and makes it more likely that a Labour government will be defeated. |
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swanarcadian
Conservative & Unionist
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Post by swanarcadian on Aug 10, 2024 15:25:33 GMT
As far as the GE was concerned, tactical voting. People just wanted us out and saw voting Lib Dem as the way to do it. The question is now whether the Lib Dems can keep it up; when the voters are ready to vote Labour out of office, things could change back again quickly. But I get the impression Tory voters here are more sympathetic than average to the left, Remain supporting side of the party. Just to explain some simple arithmetic - getting rid of LD MPs does not get Labour out of office, you have to get defeat Labour MPs to do that. I think you misunderstand me, if I may say so. Usually when Labour suffers a defeat/is voted out of office, the Tories are more likely to pick up Lib Dem seats. Seats like Oxford W & Abingdon, Winchester, Teignbridge/Newton Abbott & Montgomeryshire (I know) went back to the Tories in 2010. I could go back to 1979 and 1970 for more examples. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Aug 10, 2024 16:02:14 GMT
May lives in the Berkshire town of Sonning. The town is divided from Sonning Common by the River Thames which is the county boundary. Yes Sonning Common itself (which gives its name to the ward here) is some way inland from the river, in the NW corner of the ward. The more compact Sonning Common itself was always one of the weaker Conservative wards in the Henley seat (certainly in the southern half) and IIRC Labour actually won a seat there in 1995. |
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Post by michaelarden on Aug 12, 2024 10:15:48 GMT
As far as the GE was concerned, tactical voting. People just wanted us out and saw voting Lib Dem as the way to do it. The question is now whether the Lib Dems can keep it up; when the voters are ready to vote Labour out of office, things could change back again quickly. But I get the impression Tory voters here are more sympathetic than average to the left, Remain supporting side of the party. Just to explain some simple arithmetic - getting rid of LD MPs does not get Labour out of office, you have to get defeat Labour MPs to do that. I think the point being that the vast majority of Lib Dem MPs were elected on an anti-Tory tide. If that tide goes out (and that's a pretty big if given the Tory leadership contenders) then the Lib Dems along with Labour will go out on it too. |
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nyx
Non-Aligned
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Post by nyx on Aug 12, 2024 11:06:23 GMT
Just to explain some simple arithmetic - getting rid of LD MPs does not get Labour out of office, you have to get defeat Labour MPs to do that. I think the point being that the vast majority of Lib Dem MPs were elected on an anti-Tory tide. If that tide goes out (and that's a pretty big if given the Tory leadership contenders) then the Lib Dems along with Labour will go out on it too. The Lib Dems did build up a lot of very strong majorities though. Think even if the national tide turns to favour the Tories, the Lib Dems will probably manage to keep most of their MPs. |
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john07
Labour & Co-operative
Posts: 15,799
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Post by john07 on Aug 12, 2024 11:27:52 GMT
I think the point being that the vast majority of Lib Dem MPs were elected on an anti-Tory tide. If that tide goes out (and that's a pretty big if given the Tory leadership contenders) then the Lib Dems along with Labour will go out on it too. The Lib Dems did build up a lot of very strong majorities though. Think even if the national tide turns to favour the Tories, the Lib Dems will probably manage to keep most of their MPs. The complication for the Conservatives is that they lost most votes to Reform but most seats to Labour and Lib Dems. If they try and recapture those votes from Reform by moving to the right, it will certainly entrench many if not all of the Lib Dems. |
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Ports
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Post by Ports on Aug 12, 2024 12:03:48 GMT
The Sonning Common ward also contains (Lower) Shiplake which has very little connection to Sonning Common for two places in the same ward. A very well to do area which is probably more what Clark was thinking of. But while it was very probably Tory in itself, it's not big enough to offset Sonning Common itself. |
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