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Post by Pete Whitehead on Aug 7, 2024 17:27:08 GMT
I'm not too confident about all of this, but the Isle of Wight was just weird really..  | | Con | Lab | Ref | Grn | LD | Ind | Oth | | | | | | | | | | | | | Medina | 27.6% | 32.1% | 18.0% | 11.8% | 9.8% | 0.5% | 0.2% | | | South Wight | 33.1% | 23.8% | 20.1% | 13.7% | 8.4% | 0.7% | 0.1% | | | | | | | | | | | | | Isle of Wight | 30.0% | 28.5% | 18.9% | 12.6% | 9.2% | 0.6% | 0.2% | |
Did Reform and/or the Greens come close in any of the East wards? I had some of the urban wards as almost four way marginals (with just 8% separating first and fourth in Ryde North West) and Sandown South as a narrow Reform win over the Tories (Labour not far behind). Yes - I had Reform very close in Wroxall, Lowtherville and Bonchurch and as you say several four way marginals in Ryde |
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,913
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Post by YL on Aug 7, 2024 17:29:17 GMT
Ben Walker has every ward in IoW West voting Labour except Central Rural and Totland & Colwell (the westernmost ward, which Pete has as Labour).
In East he has Labour winning Ryde Appley & Elmfield, Reform winning Ryde South East (on 24.1% with the Greens in fourth on 19.2%) and the Greens winning Ryde Monktonmead (on 23.8% with Labour in fourth on 20.0%) and the Tories winning the rest. In Ryde North West he has the Tories carrying it on 24.6% with Labour fourth on 20.1%, so some very tight four way marginals there.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Aug 7, 2024 17:39:30 GMT
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Post by johnloony on Aug 7, 2024 17:40:42 GMT
I often used to imagine that if I wanted to split the Isle of Wight into two constituencies, trying to maximise the chances of a non-Conservative being elected in one of them, then the best way would be to combine the towns in the north and east together as much as possible - although that arrangement would be awkwardly straddling the river estuary and would not fit well with where the ward boundaries were.
When the eventual split was more directly east / west, I was expecting a more even political split as well. I was very surprised that the Labour constituency is the one which is geographically larger. There must be something a bit odd or idiosyncratic about the microdemography or distribution of the population within the geographical area that I don’t know about.
One of my cousins and his family live in the Isle of Wight. They are Green Party supporters, but they would be frustrated because they live in the Conservative eastern bit.
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Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
Posts: 12,020
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Post by Khunanup on Aug 7, 2024 17:55:57 GMT
I'm not too confident about all of this, but the Isle of Wight was just weird really.. | | Con | Lab | Ref | Grn | LD | Ind | Oth | | | | | | | | | | | | | Medina | 27.6% | 32.1% | 18.0% | 11.8% | 9.8% | 0.5% | 0.2% | | | South Wight | 33.1% | 23.8% | 20.1% | 13.7% | 8.4% | 0.7% | 0.1% | | | | | | | | | | | | | Isle of Wight | 30.0% | 28.5% | 18.9% | 12.6% | 9.2% | 0.6% | 0.2% | |
Looks plausible. There's a lot of deprivation in north west Wight so that tracks. Did you have Labour close in Lake in East at all? |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Aug 7, 2024 17:56:48 GMT
I often used to imagine that if I wanted to split the Isle of Wight into two constituencies, trying to maximise the chances of a non-Conservative being elected in one of them, then the best way would be to combine the towns in the north and east together as much as possible - although that arrangement would be awkwardly straddling the river estuary and would not fit well with where the ward boundaries were. When the eventual split was more directly east / west, I was expecting a more even political split as well. I was very surprised that the Labour constituency is the one which is geographically larger. There must be something a bit odd or idiosyncratic about the microdemography or distribution of the population within the geographical area that I don’t know about. One of my cousins and his family live in the Isle of Wight. They are Green Party supporters, but they would be frustrated because they live in the Conservative eastern bit. I did some analysis of past elections and found that Isle of Wight West would consistently have been the more Liberal/Lib Dem half of the island. Despite being geographically larger, it is not less urban Its helpful to see it in this way  Although my 'Rural East' includes some small towns like Ventnor and Bembridge, the 'Rural West area does too. But both seats are dominated by their respective urban areas, and while in East these are the relatively comfortable resort towns of Ryde and Sandown, those in West are more workaday, especially Newport which frankly is a shithole. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Aug 7, 2024 18:02:02 GMT
I'm not too confident about all of this, but the Isle of Wight was just weird really.. | | Con | Lab | Ref | Grn | LD | Ind | Oth | | | | | | | | | | | | | Medina | 27.6% | 32.1% | 18.0% | 11.8% | 9.8% | 0.5% | 0.2% | | | South Wight | 33.1% | 23.8% | 20.1% | 13.7% | 8.4% | 0.7% | 0.1% | | | | | | | | | | | | | Isle of Wight | 30.0% | 28.5% | 18.9% | 12.6% | 9.2% | 0.6% | 0.2% | |
Looks plausible. There's a lot of deprivation in north west Wight so that tracks. Did you have Labour close in Lake in East at all? They had one of their higher vote shares there (Lake North) but not that close to carrying it as I think they generally underperformed in that seat (as much as they overperformed in West) - they were slightly closer in Sandown North. I thought Labour would carry one or two wards in that area as that area, more than Ryde, is where they have more often elected councillors. I get the impression (I could be wrong) that Ryde is more affluent but may have trended left in the way that many south coast towns have (perhaps there's more of a commuter element there?) - it's not exactly Hove, but that kind of thing.. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Aug 7, 2024 18:03:12 GMT
I havent been to the Isle of Wight since 1995. I need to go there again.
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Post by bjornhattan on Aug 7, 2024 18:06:46 GMT
I havent been to the Isle of Wight since 1995. I need to go there again. I think you'll find Sandown illuminating (Shanklin remains largely quite pleasant though). |
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nyx
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,040
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Post by nyx on Aug 7, 2024 19:09:04 GMT
I spent 24 hours in the West Wight constituency about a week after the election, and still find it difficult to believe Labour won there. Those 3 westernmost wards, where we were staying, feel like very natural Conservative territory. We did also visit Newport and Cowes, and I was surprised to find how much of Cowes does look more natural Labour voting terraced housing. Yes Cowes and especially Newport you can understand but those western wards do seem counterintuitive. I wasn't so surprised that Labour won West (although having been socialised on the 1983 results it does take some getting used to) but the ease with which they did surprised me and it can't just have been down to Cowes and Newport - they must at least have been competitive in the rural areas and the other small towns. I don't think I've been to Freshwater or Totland so they may be more grotty than I imagine, obviously I've been to Alum Bay and it seems like a very pleasant part of the world Freshwater/Totland area doesn't feel like natural Labour territory (albeit when I lived on the Isle of Wight I lived in the east so didn't go to Freshwater much). However, in the context of an election in which Labour won Wight West by the margin they did, I do think it's believable that Freshwater probably went for Labour, even though it's never something I'd expect under ordinary circumstances. Then again, given the margin, Labour must have been pretty close in all of the wards in Wight West. The ward where I disagree with your map is Fairlee and Whippingham. Fairlee isn't an especially rich area, I'm pretty confident Labour will have taken it comfortably. There's no way the Tories could have come close enough. The rest of the map is believable enough- those four Ryde wards you have going Labour are definitely the parts of the constituency that feel most Labour-ish for example. But I think a lot of wards will have been close enough it's pretty much impossible to predict. |
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Harry Hayfield
Green
Cavalier Gentleman (as in 17th century Cavalier)
Posts: 2,922 
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Post by Harry Hayfield on Aug 7, 2024 19:31:29 GMT
I'm not too confident about all of this, but the Isle of Wight was just weird really.. | | Con | Lab | Ref | Grn | LD | Ind | Oth | | | | | | | | | | | | | Medina | 27.6% | 32.1% | 18.0% | 11.8% | 9.8% | 0.5% | 0.2% | | | South Wight | 33.1% | 23.8% | 20.1% | 13.7% | 8.4% | 0.7% | 0.1% | | | | | | | | | | | | | Isle of Wight | 30.0% | 28.5% | 18.9% | 12.6% | 9.2% | 0.6% | 0.2% | |
You mean the undivided Isle of Wight would have been a Conservative hold? I bet the Conservatives are kicking themselves over that one! |
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Post by johnloony on Aug 7, 2024 19:38:05 GMT
I havent been to the Isle of Wight since 1995. I need to go there again. i have been there once, in 1984. |
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Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on Aug 7, 2024 19:43:17 GMT
I've never been to the Isle of Wight
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Post by batman on Aug 7, 2024 19:47:21 GMT
I spent 24 hours in the West Wight constituency about a week after the election, and still find it difficult to believe Labour won there. Those 3 westernmost wards, where we were staying, feel like very natural Conservative territory. We did also visit Newport and Cowes, and I was surprised to find how much of Cowes does look more natural Labour voting terraced housing. Yes Cowes and especially Newport you can understand but those western wards do seem counterintuitive. I wasn't so surprised that Labour won West (although having been socialised on the 1983 results it does take some getting used to) but the ease with which they did surprised me and it can't just have been down to Cowes and Newport - they must at least have been competitive in the rural areas and the other small towns. I don't think I've been to Freshwater or Totland so they may be more grotty than I imagine, obviously I've been to Alum Bay and it seems like a very pleasant part of the world they really aren't grotty Pete (I spent a week there in 1997 - I remember Phil Tufnell bowling us to victory in the final Ashes Test) |
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Post by finsobruce on Aug 7, 2024 19:47:24 GMT
I've never been to the Isle of Wight At this rate there will be a Forum trip to the Isle of Wight. *
* No passport required.  |
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Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
Posts: 12,020
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Post by Khunanup on Aug 7, 2024 19:50:00 GMT
I've never been to the Isle of Wight At this rate there will be a Forum trip to the Isle of Wight. * * No passport required. That's what you think... |
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Post by andrewp on Aug 7, 2024 20:00:28 GMT
Yes Cowes and especially Newport you can understand but those western wards do seem counterintuitive. I wasn't so surprised that Labour won West (although having been socialised on the 1983 results it does take some getting used to) but the ease with which they did surprised me and it can't just have been down to Cowes and Newport - they must at least have been competitive in the rural areas and the other small towns. I don't think I've been to Freshwater or Totland so they may be more grotty than I imagine, obviously I've been to Alum Bay and it seems like a very pleasant part of the world they really aren't grotty Pete (I spent a week there in 1997 - I remember Phil Tufnell bowling us to victory in the final Ashes Test) Talking of sporting links to trips to the Isle of Wight- we listened to Linford Christie win the men’s 100 metres Olympic final on the car radio whilst my dad was driving from Yarmouth to my uncles house in Merstone on the Isle of Wight in 1992. My uncle, aunt and cousins lived on the Island from 1988 until my uncle and aunt moved to Devon in 2017. My last visit was for my cousins funeral in 2008. I think Freshwater and Totland are fairly nice places. Presumably the size of Labour majority means the maths don’t work for Labour to have won IOWW by carrying Newport and Cowes by a wide margin? |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Aug 7, 2024 20:03:39 GMT
I'm not too confident about all of this, but the Isle of Wight was just weird really.. | | Con | Lab | Ref | Grn | LD | Ind | Oth | | | | | | | | | | | | | Medina | 27.6% | 32.1% | 18.0% | 11.8% | 9.8% | 0.5% | 0.2% | | | South Wight | 33.1% | 23.8% | 20.1% | 13.7% | 8.4% | 0.7% | 0.1% | | | | | | | | | | | | | Isle of Wight | 30.0% | 28.5% | 18.9% | 12.6% | 9.2% | 0.6% | 0.2% | |
Medina is interesting? I thought conservatives would be polling better than that in Saudi Arabia! |
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Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on Aug 7, 2024 20:15:04 GMT
I've never been to the Isle of Wight At this rate there will be a Forum trip to the Isle of Wight. *
* No passport required. There was no passport required at Liverpool Airport the other week, I know Belfast is "internal" but one bloke ahead of us got through on his bank card! |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Aug 7, 2024 20:16:16 GMT
I'm down for an Oxford Vote UK forum meet-up.
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