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Post by londonseal80 on Aug 6, 2024 18:30:45 GMT
 | | LD | Con | Lab | Ref | Grn | Ind | Oth | | | | | | | | | | | | | Spelthorne | 18.9% | 30.4% | 27.0% | 17.9% | 5.2% | 0.0% | 0.6% | | | Runnymede | 17.7% | 37.2% | 25.3% | 14.1% | 3.8% | 1.4% | 0.5% | | | Elmbridge | 47.7% | 32.9% | 6.6% | 9.1% | 3.0% | 0.3% | 0.4% | | | Woking | 49.9% | 26.5% | 9.2% | 10.2% | 3.8% | 0.0% | 0.3% | | | Surrey Heath | 45.4% | 32.5% | 6.4% | 13.0% | 2.5% | 0.0% | 0.2% | | | Guildford | 44.5% | 34.4% | 7.2% | 9.7% | 3.8% | 0.0% | 0.5% | | | Waverley | 39.8% | 37.5% | 9.6% | 9.3% | 3.5% | 0.2% | 0.2% | | | Mole Valley | 45.0% | 30.8% | 7.4% | 11.9% | 4.3% | 0.0% | 0.6% | | | Epsom & Ewell | 36.4% | 30.5% | 17.4% | 10.6% | 3.3% | 0.0% | 1.8% | | | Reigate & Banstead | 16.0% | 34.9% | 26.0% | 14.6% | 8.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | | | Tandridge | 18.7% | 35.8% | 19.9% | 17.0% | 5.6% | 2.3% | 0.6% | |
| | | | | | | | | | Surrey | 35.3% | 33.3% | 14.1% | 12.2% | 4.4% | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
It's funny considering how things went down in Berkshire (Conservatives 'winning' in Bracknell Forest, Wokingham, West Berkshire, but no MPs covering those areas) that the Lib Dems carried Waverley Dogs Bark. Cats Meow. Labour carries Court. Not a surprise the area is more like Mitcham/St Helier in the 1980s. |
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Post by michaelarden on Aug 6, 2024 18:34:45 GMT
Could this be moved to the General psephology thread? It sits better there than here - perhaps in the Pretty maps sub-thread?
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Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
Posts: 12,020
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Post by Khunanup on Aug 6, 2024 19:14:32 GMT
Could this be moved to the General psephology thread? It sits better there than here - perhaps in the Pretty maps sub-thread? It has been previously addressed why this thread sits here. |
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iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,438 
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Post by iain on Aug 7, 2024 6:36:32 GMT
| | Con | Lab | LD | Ref | Grn | Ind | Oth | | | | | | | | | | | | | Rushmoor | 29.5% | 42.2% | 5.9% | 17.7% | 4.0% | 0.6% | 0.0% | | | Hart | 34.3% | 12.6% | 36.9% | 11.8% | 3.2% | 0.5% | 0.6% | | | Basingstoke & Deane | 33.8% | 33.5% | 12.5% | 13.0% | 6.1% | 1.0% | 0.1% | | | Test Valley | 37.4% | 15.2% | 28.6% | 14.0% | 4.1% | 0.6% | 0.0% | | | Winchester | 29.1% | 7.4% | 48.6% | 9.4% | 4.7% | 0.5% | 0.3% | | | East Hampshire | 37.8% | 10.8% | 32.2% | 13.2% | 4.9% | 0.9% | 0.2% | | | Havant | 32.7% | 28.2% | 9.2% | 23.1% | 6.3% | 0.1% | 0.5% | | | Portsmouth | 24.0% | 41.4% | 9.8% | 17.6% | 6.2% | 0.0% | 0.9% | | | Gosport | 39.3% | 28.3% | 9.3% | 16.9% | 4.6% | 0.9% | 0.7% | | | Fareham | 38.1% | 20.5% | 18.8% | 17.9% | 4.0% | 0.5% | 0.3% | | | Eastleigh | 31.9% | 15.5% | 33.5% | 13.6% | 4.7% | 0.8% | 0.0% | | | Southampton | 23.4% | 39.9% | 11.8% | 15.4% | 8.2% | 0.0% | 1.2% | | | New Forest | 36.9% | 21.5% | 16.8% | 16.6% | 6.5% | 0.0% | 1.6% | |
| | | | | | | | | | Hampshire | 32.6% | 24.6% | 21.2% | 15.2% | 5.4% | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
I’m a bit surprised you have so many wards in Andover as Labour, but not Sherborne St John & Rooksdown - I’d have expected that to be Labour’s best ward in NW Hants? |
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Harry Hayfield
Green
Cavalier Gentleman (as in 17th century Cavalier)
Posts: 2,922
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Post by Harry Hayfield on Aug 7, 2024 6:51:44 GMT
Have there been any examples so far tallied where a party won a constituency, despite not winning a single ward in that constituency? Because from what I have seen so far the Lib Dems appear to have won Newbury, despite only winning one ward, and Labour seemed to have won Reading West and Mid Berkshire by Reading only
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Aug 7, 2024 7:24:38 GMT
Have there been any examples so far tallied where a party won a constituency, despite not winning a single ward in that constituency? Because from what I have seen so far the Lib Dems appear to have won Newbury, despite only winning one ward, and Labour seemed to have won Reading West and Mid Berkshire by Reading only You're wrong on both those counts. The Lib Dems won all the urban wards in Newbury and Thatcham and Labour won several of the West Berkshire wards within the Mid Berkshire seat (albeit, as one would expect, these were those which form part of the built up area of Reading) |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Aug 7, 2024 8:14:14 GMT
On the subtantive question, I haven't encountered any examples yet in this election and would not expect to. I think I have done so in the past but can't remember where. For that to happen requires a few factors:
1. Obviously there needs to be a close result between three (or more) parties
2. There needs to be a relatively small number of wards
3. There needs to be a fairly strong polarisation within the seat with the two non winning parties both having areas of concentrated support
One is forced to imagine hypothetical scenarios where such a thing could happen. One is if Reform had managed to win in Basildon & Billericay (which they weren't far off doing). They might have won a steady 30% across the seat but come second to the Conservatives in the wards north of the A127 and to Labour in the wards to the South.
Another is in the rather more unlikely scenario of the Lib Dems winning Kensington in 2019. Again they would have likely had a fairly even vote across the constituency but be second to Labour in the Northern wards and to the Conservatives in the southern wards and first nowhere (in reality in this scenario they would clearly have won Earls Court but we are discussing hypotheticals)
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,913
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Post by YL on Aug 7, 2024 8:26:29 GMT
On the subtantive question, I haven't encountered any examples yet in this election and would not expect to. I think I have done so in the past but can't remember where. For that to happen requires a few factors: 1. Obviously there needs to be a close result between three (or more) parties 2. There needs to be a relatively small number of wards 3. There needs to be a fairly strong polarisation within the seat with the two non winning parties both having areas of concentrated support One is forced to imagine hypothetical scenarios where such a thing could happen. One is if Reform had managed to win in Basildon & Billericay (which they weren't far off doing). They might have won a steady 30% across the seat but come second to the Conservatives in the wards north of the A127 and to Labour in the wards to the South. Another is in the rather more unlikely scenario of the Lib Dems winning Kensington in 2019. Again they would have likely had a fairly even vote across the constituency but be second to Labour in the Northern wards and to the Conservatives in the southern wards and first nowhere (in reality in this scenario they would clearly have won Earls Court but we are discussing hypotheticals) It was suggested that this might have happened in the Batley & Spen by-election, with Galloway carrying the Batley wards and Heckmondwike and the Conservatives the remaining wards. Along those lines, a candidate might be a constituency which is traditionally polarised between Labour and the Tories and in which Labour lost the wards they usually win to the Workers Party or a "Gaza independent" but got enough votes in the Tory areas to win overall. I can't think of any actual examples, though; Peterborough must have had something of that pattern but you have Labour winning some wards there. |
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Post by batman on Aug 7, 2024 8:54:41 GMT
Have there been any examples so far tallied where a party won a constituency, despite not winning a single ward in that constituency? Because from what I have seen so far the Lib Dems appear to have won Newbury, despite only winning one ward, and Labour seemed to have won Reading West and Mid Berkshire by Reading only You're wrong on both those counts. The Lib Dems won all the urban wards in Newbury and Thatcham and Labour won several of the West Berkshire wards within the Mid Berkshire seat (albeit, as one would expect, these were those which form part of the built up area of Reading) would Theale have voted Labour Pete? |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Aug 7, 2024 8:58:24 GMT
You're wrong on both those counts. The Lib Dems won all the urban wards in Newbury and Thatcham and Labour won several of the West Berkshire wards within the Mid Berkshire seat (albeit, as one would expect, these were those which form part of the built up area of Reading) would Theale have voted Labour Pete? Yes almost certainly |
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Post by bjornhattan on Aug 7, 2024 9:05:53 GMT
On the subtantive question, I haven't encountered any examples yet in this election and would not expect to. I think I have done so in the past but can't remember where. For that to happen requires a few factors: 1. Obviously there needs to be a close result between three (or more) parties 2. There needs to be a relatively small number of wards 3. There needs to be a fairly strong polarisation within the seat with the two non winning parties both having areas of concentrated support One is forced to imagine hypothetical scenarios where such a thing could happen. One is if Reform had managed to win in Basildon & Billericay (which they weren't far off doing). They might have won a steady 30% across the seat but come second to the Conservatives in the wards north of the A127 and to Labour in the wards to the South. Another is in the rather more unlikely scenario of the Lib Dems winning Kensington in 2019. Again they would have likely had a fairly even vote across the constituency but be second to Labour in the Northern wards and to the Conservatives in the southern wards and first nowhere (in reality in this scenario they would clearly have won Earls Court but we are discussing hypotheticals) There's probably more potential for this north of the border - in somewhere like Dumfries and Galloway you have four (largely) urban wards which are largely Labour or SNP and then four more rural wards which are largely Conservative or SNP. In a close three way race, I suspect Labour would win the first four and the Tories the other four. But the Tories won that this time, so it's a moot point. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Aug 7, 2024 14:17:48 GMT
| | Con | Lab | LD | Ref | Grn | Ind | Oth | | | | | | | | | | | | | Rushmoor | 29.5% | 42.2% | 5.9% | 17.7% | 4.0% | 0.6% | 0.0% | | | Hart | 34.3% | 12.6% | 36.9% | 11.8% | 3.2% | 0.5% | 0.6% | | | Basingstoke & Deane | 33.8% | 33.5% | 12.5% | 13.0% | 6.1% | 1.0% | 0.1% | | | Test Valley | 37.4% | 15.2% | 28.6% | 14.0% | 4.1% | 0.6% | 0.0% | | | Winchester | 29.1% | 7.4% | 48.6% | 9.4% | 4.7% | 0.5% | 0.3% | | | East Hampshire | 37.8% | 10.8% | 32.2% | 13.2% | 4.9% | 0.9% | 0.2% | | | Havant | 32.7% | 28.2% | 9.2% | 23.1% | 6.3% | 0.1% | 0.5% | | | Portsmouth | 24.0% | 41.4% | 9.8% | 17.6% | 6.2% | 0.0% | 0.9% | | | Gosport | 39.3% | 28.3% | 9.3% | 16.9% | 4.6% | 0.9% | 0.7% | | | Fareham | 38.1% | 20.5% | 18.8% | 17.9% | 4.0% | 0.5% | 0.3% | | | Eastleigh | 31.9% | 15.5% | 33.5% | 13.6% | 4.7% | 0.8% | 0.0% | | | Southampton | 23.4% | 39.9% | 11.8% | 15.4% | 8.2% | 0.0% | 1.2% | | | New Forest | 36.9% | 21.5% | 16.8% | 16.6% | 6.5% | 0.0% | 1.6% | |
| | | | | | | | | | Hampshire | 32.6% | 24.6% | 21.2% | 15.2% | 5.4% | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
I’m a bit surprised you have so many wards in Andover as Labour, but not Sherborne St John & Rooksdown - I’d have expected that to be Labour’s best ward in NW Hants? I don't have the figures to hand but IIRC they were very close in that ward (asnd the Andover wards were all very close too). Strangely I just got a notification about this post even though it was made 7 hours ago |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Aug 7, 2024 15:52:26 GMT
Actually I don't have it as all that close, but it was Labour's 'best' ward in the sense it has their highest share of the vote. But it also has one of the Conservatives' highest vote shares - Andover has much more support for the Lib Dems and Reform, so Labour won those wards on a low vote share
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Post by bjornhattan on Aug 7, 2024 15:55:14 GMT
Actually I don't have it as all that close, but it was Labour's 'best' ward in the sense it has their highest share of the vote. But it also has one of the Conservatives' highest vote shares - Andover has much more support for the Lib Dems and Reform, so Labour won those wards on a low vote share From memory I had the Tories ahead by about 1% in my own model - Labour's strength in the new builds spilling over from Basingstoke counteracted by Tory strength in the villages. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Aug 7, 2024 16:14:51 GMT
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Aug 7, 2024 16:32:53 GMT
I'm not too confident about all of this, but the Isle of Wight was just weird really..  | | Con | Lab | Ref | Grn | LD | Ind | Oth | | | | | | | | | | | | | Medina | 27.6% | 32.1% | 18.0% | 11.8% | 9.8% | 0.5% | 0.2% | | | South Wight | 33.1% | 23.8% | 20.1% | 13.7% | 8.4% | 0.7% | 0.1% | | | | | | | | | | | | | Isle of Wight | 30.0% | 28.5% | 18.9% | 12.6% | 9.2% | 0.6% | 0.2% | |
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Post by batman on Aug 7, 2024 16:56:34 GMT
you expect Cowes & Newport to have a Labour presence, not really the small towns by the west coast
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Post by froome on Aug 7, 2024 17:02:21 GMT
I'm not too confident about all of this, but the Isle of Wight was just weird really.. | | Con | Lab | Ref | Grn | LD | Ind | Oth | | | | | | | | | | | | | Medina | 27.6% | 32.1% | 18.0% | 11.8% | 9.8% | 0.5% | 0.2% | | | South Wight | 33.1% | 23.8% | 20.1% | 13.7% | 8.4% | 0.7% | 0.1% | | | | | | | | | | | | | Isle of Wight | 30.0% | 28.5% | 18.9% | 12.6% | 9.2% | 0.6% | 0.2% | |
I spent 24 hours in the West Wight constituency about a week after the election, and still find it difficult to believe Labour won there. Those 3 westernmost wards, where we were staying, feel like very natural Conservative territory. We did also visit Newport and Cowes, and I was surprised to find how much of Cowes does look more natural Labour voting terraced housing. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Aug 7, 2024 17:15:52 GMT
I'm not too confident about all of this, but the Isle of Wight was just weird really.. | | Con | Lab | Ref | Grn | LD | Ind | Oth | | | | | | | | | | | | | Medina | 27.6% | 32.1% | 18.0% | 11.8% | 9.8% | 0.5% | 0.2% | | | South Wight | 33.1% | 23.8% | 20.1% | 13.7% | 8.4% | 0.7% | 0.1% | | | | | | | | | | | | | Isle of Wight | 30.0% | 28.5% | 18.9% | 12.6% | 9.2% | 0.6% | 0.2% | |
I spent 24 hours in the West Wight constituency about a week after the election, and still find it difficult to believe Labour won there. Those 3 westernmost wards, where we were staying, feel like very natural Conservative territory. We did also visit Newport and Cowes, and I was surprised to find how much of Cowes does look more natural Labour voting terraced housing. Yes Cowes and especially Newport you can understand but those western wards do seem counterintuitive. I wasn't so surprised that Labour won West (although having been socialised on the 1983 results it does take some getting used to) but the ease with which they did surprised me and it can't just have been down to Cowes and Newport - they must at least have been competitive in the rural areas and the other small towns. I don't think I've been to Freshwater or Totland so they may be more grotty than I imagine, obviously I've been to Alum Bay and it seems like a very pleasant part of the world |
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Post by bjornhattan on Aug 7, 2024 17:23:05 GMT
I'm not too confident about all of this, but the Isle of Wight was just weird really.. | | Con | Lab | Ref | Grn | LD | Ind | Oth | | | | | | | | | | | | | Medina | 27.6% | 32.1% | 18.0% | 11.8% | 9.8% | 0.5% | 0.2% | | | South Wight | 33.1% | 23.8% | 20.1% | 13.7% | 8.4% | 0.7% | 0.1% | | | | | | | | | | | | | Isle of Wight | 30.0% | 28.5% | 18.9% | 12.6% | 9.2% | 0.6% | 0.2% | |
Did Reform and/or the Greens come close in any of the East wards? I had some of the urban wards as almost four way marginals (with just 8% separating first and fourth in Ryde North West) and Sandown South as a narrow Reform win over the Tories (Labour not far behind). |
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