YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,908
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Post by YL on Aug 4, 2024 9:53:06 GMT
Best Lib Dem ward?
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Aug 4, 2024 9:59:39 GMT
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birkinabe
Non-Aligned
winning here
Posts: 155
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Post by birkinabe on Aug 4, 2024 10:27:41 GMT
It's funny considering how things went down in Berkshire (Conservatives 'winning' in Bracknell Forest, Wokingham, West Berkshire, but no MPs covering those areas) that the Lib Dems carried Waverley Does that mean the LDs would have won the old SW Surrey seat? |
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,908
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Post by YL on Aug 4, 2024 10:40:04 GMT
How does that compare with their best that you've found across the country so far? |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Aug 4, 2024 10:47:49 GMT
 | | LD | Con | Lab | Ref | Grn | Ind | Oth | | | | | | | | | | | | | Spelthorne | 18.9% | 30.4% | 27.0% | 17.9% | 5.2% | 0.0% | 0.6% | | | Runnymede | 17.7% | 37.2% | 25.3% | 14.1% | 3.8% | 1.4% | 0.5% | | | Elmbridge | 47.7% | 32.9% | 6.6% | 9.1% | 3.0% | 0.3% | 0.4% | | | Woking | 49.9% | 26.5% | 9.2% | 10.2% | 3.8% | 0.0% | 0.3% | | | Surrey Heath | 45.4% | 32.5% | 6.4% | 13.0% | 2.5% | 0.0% | 0.2% | | | Guildford | 44.5% | 34.4% | 7.2% | 9.7% | 3.8% | 0.0% | 0.5% | | | Waverley | 39.8% | 37.5% | 9.6% | 9.3% | 3.5% | 0.2% | 0.2% | | | Mole Valley | 45.0% | 30.8% | 7.4% | 11.9% | 4.3% | 0.0% | 0.6% | | | Epsom & Ewell | 36.4% | 30.5% | 17.4% | 10.6% | 3.3% | 0.0% | 1.8% | | | Reigate & Banstead | 16.0% | 34.9% | 26.0% | 14.6% | 8.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | | | Tandridge | 18.7% | 35.8% | 19.9% | 17.0% | 5.6% | 2.3% | 0.6% | |
| | | | | | | | | | Surrey | 35.3% | 33.3% | 14.1% | 12.2% | 4.4% | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
It's funny considering how things went down in Berkshire (Conservatives 'winning' in Bracknell Forest, Wokingham, West Berkshire, but no MPs covering those areas) that the Lib Dems carried Waverley Surrey starting to vote like Connecticut (gadzooks). |
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Post by No Offence Alan on Aug 4, 2024 10:48:04 GMT
How does that compare with their best that you've found across the country so far? Looking forward to North Korean levels of support for the LDs in some wards in Farronshire. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Aug 4, 2024 10:50:00 GMT
How does that compare with their best that you've found across the country so far? It's the highest so far, just pipping Ashley and Clarence in St Albans |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Aug 4, 2024 10:52:18 GMT
Runnymede wasn't all that close really.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Aug 4, 2024 10:53:05 GMT
It's funny considering how things went down in Berkshire (Conservatives 'winning' in Bracknell Forest, Wokingham, West Berkshire, but no MPs covering those areas) that the Lib Dems carried Waverley Does that mean the LDs would have won the old SW Surrey seat? Yes I have the Lib Dems ahead by about 2k in HUnt's old seat. It seems to be one area where the boundary changes have benefited them. On the old boundaries, Surrey's 11 seats would have broken 7 Lib Dem to 4 Con whereas the score is actually 6 each of those seats wholly or mostly in Surrey. Of course had the seat been fought on those boundaries, Hunt may have found some extra votes in Farnham and Haslemere which didn't go to the new candidate there, so it might not have gone Lib Dem |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Aug 4, 2024 11:01:29 GMT
Runnymede wasn't all that close really. Yes the Conservative vote held up really well there. I looked up the MP and discovered he had been elected in 2019 yet I had never heard of him (I knew the seat must have acquired a new Conservative MP then as I knew Hammond had retired) - I don't know if he has proved popular and assiduous or if it is just down to the M25 effect that has been identified elsewhere. I went to Thorpe Park in that constituency a few days ago and it occuured to me that most of the seats I travelled through are still quite firmly in the Conservative column (Hertsmere, SW Herts, Ruislip, Northwood & Pinner, Beaconsfield, Windsor, Spelthorne, Runnymede & Weybridge). That wouldn't normally be aprticularly noteworthy tbf, but it is now. |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Aug 4, 2024 11:52:15 GMT
Runnymede wasn't all that close really. Yes the Conservative vote held up really well there. I looked up the MP and discovered he had been elected in 2019 yet I had never heard of him (I knew the seat must have acquired a new Conservative MP then as I knew Hammond had retired) - I don't know if he has proved popular and assiduous or if it is just down to the M25 effect that has been identified elsewhere. I went to Thorpe Park in that constituency a few days ago and it occuured to me that most of the seats I travelled through are still quite firmly in the Conservative column (Hertsmere, SW Herts, Ruislip, Northwood & Pinner, Beaconsfield, Windsor, Spelthorne, Runnymede & Weybridge). That wouldn't normally be aprticularly noteworthy tbf, but it is now.Correlation not causation in this case! |
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Post by stodge on Aug 4, 2024 16:18:59 GMT
Apart from the 2019 European Parliamentary election (and I'm not sure about those), this would be the first election where the Conservatives have failed to "win" Surrey.
The 2025 County Council election looks fascinating on these numbers. Given existing LD strength in Waverley, the likely absence of Reform (?) and Green challenges, the possibility of the Conservatives losing control of the County Council has to be considered possible.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 4, 2024 16:55:34 GMT
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Post by hullenedge on Aug 6, 2024 7:41:33 GMT
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Aug 6, 2024 16:58:35 GMT
 | | Con | Lab | LD | Ref | Grn | Ind | Oth | | | | | | | | | | | | | Rushmoor | 29.5% | 42.2% | 5.9% | 17.7% | 4.0% | 0.6% | 0.0% | | | Hart | 34.3% | 12.6% | 36.9% | 11.8% | 3.2% | 0.5% | 0.6% | | | Basingstoke & Deane | 33.8% | 33.5% | 12.5% | 13.0% | 6.1% | 1.0% | 0.1% | | | Test Valley | 37.4% | 15.2% | 28.6% | 14.0% | 4.1% | 0.6% | 0.0% | | | Winchester | 29.1% | 7.4% | 48.6% | 9.4% | 4.7% | 0.5% | 0.3% | | | East Hampshire | 37.8% | 10.8% | 32.2% | 13.2% | 4.9% | 0.9% | 0.2% | | | Havant | 32.7% | 28.2% | 9.2% | 23.1% | 6.3% | 0.1% | 0.5% | | | Portsmouth | 24.0% | 41.4% | 9.8% | 17.6% | 6.2% | 0.0% | 0.9% | | | Gosport | 39.3% | 28.3% | 9.3% | 16.9% | 4.6% | 0.9% | 0.7% | | | Fareham | 38.1% | 20.5% | 18.8% | 17.9% | 4.0% | 0.5% | 0.3% | | | Eastleigh | 31.9% | 15.5% | 33.5% | 13.6% | 4.7% | 0.8% | 0.0% | | | Southampton | 23.4% | 39.9% | 11.8% | 15.4% | 8.2% | 0.0% | 1.2% | | | New Forest | 36.9% | 21.5% | 16.8% | 16.6% | 6.5% | 0.0% | 1.6% | |
| | | | | | | | | | Hampshire | 32.6% | 24.6% | 21.2% | 15.2% | 5.4% | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
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nyx
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,034
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Post by nyx on Aug 6, 2024 17:12:00 GMT
| | Con | Lab | LD | Ref | Grn | Ind | Oth | | | | | | | | | | | | | Rushmoor | 29.5% | 42.2% | 5.9% | 17.7% | 4.0% | 0.6% | 0.0% | | | Hart | 34.3% | 12.6% | 36.9% | 11.8% | 3.2% | 0.5% | 0.6% | | | Basingstoke & Deane | 33.8% | 33.5% | 12.5% | 13.0% | 6.1% | 1.0% | 0.1% | | | Test Valley | 37.4% | 15.2% | 28.6% | 14.0% | 4.1% | 0.6% | 0.0% | | | Winchester | 29.1% | 7.4% | 48.6% | 9.4% | 4.7% | 0.5% | 0.3% | | | East Hampshire | 37.8% | 10.8% | 32.2% | 13.2% | 4.9% | 0.9% | 0.2% | | | Havant | 32.7% | 28.2% | 9.2% | 23.1% | 6.3% | 0.1% | 0.5% | | | Portsmouth | 24.0% | 41.4% | 9.8% | 17.6% | 6.2% | 0.0% | 0.9% | | | Gosport | 39.3% | 28.3% | 9.3% | 16.9% | 4.6% | 0.9% | 0.7% | | | Fareham | 38.1% | 20.5% | 18.8% | 17.9% | 4.0% | 0.5% | 0.3% | | | Eastleigh | 31.9% | 15.5% | 33.5% | 13.6% | 4.7% | 0.8% | 0.0% | | | Southampton | 23.4% | 39.9% | 11.8% | 15.4% | 8.2% | 0.0% | 1.2% | | | New Forest | 36.9% | 21.5% | 16.8% | 16.6% | 6.5% | 0.0% | 1.6% | |
| | | | | | | | | | Hampshire | 32.6% | 24.6% | 21.2% | 15.2% | 5.4% | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
Wonder if East Hampshire and Romsey+Southampton North would have gone Lib Dem under the old boundaries. Must be close. |
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Ports
Non-Aligned
Posts: 605 
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Post by Ports on Aug 6, 2024 17:17:44 GMT
With the two areas I'd like to think I have a decent knowledge of (Hampshire and Berkshire) now 'in' I would just like to say that Pete's attempts at notionals are the ones I believe to be the most accurate and the ones I'd put the most trust in - especially based on how he has mapped out the Liberal Democrat vote. So a big thank you for your efforts!
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Aug 6, 2024 17:18:56 GMT
Romsey yes. East Hampshire would have been a bit safer as the Conservatives were stronger in the 'Bordon' area than the Horndean area.
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nyx
Non-Aligned
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Post by nyx on Aug 6, 2024 18:17:46 GMT
East Hampshire would have been a bit safer as the Conservatives were stronger in the 'Bordon' area than the Horndean area. Interesting, I suppose Meon Valley might have come close to flipping under the old boundaries too then? |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Aug 6, 2024 18:28:27 GMT
East Hampshire would have been a bit safer as the Conservatives were stronger in the 'Bordon' area than the Horndean area. Interesting, I suppose Meon Valley might have come close to flipping under the old boundaries too then? Not very no. The Lib Dems would have done well in the Winchester district part of the seat but well behind in Waterlooville. NE Hampshire would have been Conservative on the old boundaries though, so the only difference is that and Romsey. I think some of us would have preferred it to go down that way. |
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