batman
Labour
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Post by batman on Jul 30, 2024 20:37:45 GMT
The first thing I look at is Tamworth and he has Bourne Vale being won by Labour, probably the safest Tory ward in the constituency. maybe he's confusing it with Bournville  |
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Post by finsobruce on Jul 30, 2024 21:30:02 GMT
The first thing I look at is Tamworth and he has Bourne Vale being won by Labour, probably the safest Tory ward in the constituency. maybe he's confusing it with Bournville I should cocoa |
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wallington
Green
The Pride of Croydon 2022 award winner
Posts: 1,322
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Post by wallington on Jul 31, 2024 12:14:16 GMT
Most of it seems pretty sound, but looking at Croydon, the model may struggle to estimate third-party vote share. For example, in Croydon East, I know that Reform performed stronger in the 'east' of the constituency than the model estimates and the Greens performed stronger in the 'west' of the constituency... just things like that. I notice similar issues with the numbers in Croydon West. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jul 31, 2024 21:00:40 GMT
 Another 'wrong winner' result | | Con | Lab | LD | Ref | Grn | WP | Ind | Oth | | | | | | | | | | | | Milton Keynes | 28.7% | 43.0% | 8.1% | 13.4% | 6.3% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| | | | | | | | | | Aylesbury Vale | 32.2% | 26.2% | 19.9% | 14.8% | 5.7% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.4% | | Wycombe | 32.2% | 26.0% | 18.6% | 11.1% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 2.8% | 0.8% | | Chiltern | 34.3% | 7.4% | 43.4% | 10.2% | 3.7% | 1.0% | 0.0% | 0.3% | | South Buckinghamshire | 38.4% | 14.1% | 29.6% | 11.9% | 4.1% | 0.2% | 1.5% | 0.3% |
| | | | | | | | | | Buckinghamshire UA | 33.4% | 20.8% | 25.4% | 12.3% | 4.7% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.5% |
| | | | | | | | | | Buckinghamshire | 32.0% | 27.6% | 20.2% | 12.7% | 5.2% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.4% |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jul 31, 2024 21:07:31 GMT
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Ports
Non-Aligned
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Post by Ports on Aug 1, 2024 20:09:14 GMT
Re: Ben Walker's aforementioned notional results, there seem to be issues with the figures in Scotland, where some wards (seemingly ones that are split) have very low turnouts. Perhaps only a portion of the ward is shown - Clydesdale South, Garscadden/Scotstoun, Pentland Hills and Kirkintilloch East seem to be affected for example.
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john07
Labour & Co-operative
Posts: 15,774
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Post by john07 on Aug 1, 2024 21:54:18 GMT
Re: Ben Walker's aforementioned notional results, there seem to be issues with the figures in Scotland, where some wards (seemingly ones that are split) have very low turnouts. Perhaps only a portion of the ward is shown - Clydesdale South, Garscadden/Scotstoun, Pentland Hills and Kirkintilloch East seem to be affected for example. It is absolute nonsense to try and relate constituency results to local authority electoral divisions in Scotland as many such ‘wards’ span two or three constituencies. |
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Ports
Non-Aligned
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Post by Ports on Aug 1, 2024 22:06:16 GMT
Re: Ben Walker's aforementioned notional results, there seem to be issues with the figures in Scotland, where some wards (seemingly ones that are split) have very low turnouts. Perhaps only a portion of the ward is shown - Clydesdale South, Garscadden/Scotstoun, Pentland Hills and Kirkintilloch East seem to be affected for example. It is absolute nonsense to try and relate constituency results to local authority electoral divisions in Scotland as many such ‘wards’ span two or three constituencies. Whether you think that or not, if you take the model in the way it's intended that is still an issue. Personally I think it is naturally much more difficult and comes with that disclaimer but the attempts of people such as those earlier in the thread make me think it can provide results better than 'absolute nonsense'. |
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john07
Labour & Co-operative
Posts: 15,774
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Post by john07 on Aug 1, 2024 22:34:14 GMT
It is absolute nonsense to try and relate constituency results to local authority electoral divisions in Scotland as many such ‘wards’ span two or three constituencies. Whether you think that or not, if you take the model in the way it's intended that is still an issue. Personally I think it is naturally much more difficult and comes with that disclaimer but the attempts of people such as those earlier in the thread make me think it can provide results better than 'absolute nonsense'. One reason why trying to reconcile local election results in Scotland with Parliamentary elections, is the different voting system. Using local election to relate the results would have to take account of tactical voting as well as the boundary mismatch. This is a major issue in Scotland with anti-SNP tactical voting being apparent throughout much of Scotland just as anti-Tory tactical voting was in 1997. That is before you have to relate the sprawling local election divisions to the constituencies. Obviously, this does not mean that no one should not attempt to do this, but we should be very sceptical of the results. |
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Post by sanders on Aug 2, 2024 1:20:19 GMT
Another 'wrong winner' result | | Con | Lab | LD | Ref | Grn | WP | Ind | Oth | | | | | | | | | | | | Milton Keynes | 28.7% | 43.0% | 8.1% | 13.4% | 6.3% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| | | | | | | | | | Aylesbury Vale | 32.2% | 26.2% | 19.9% | 14.8% | 5.7% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.4% | | Wycombe | 32.2% | 26.0% | 18.6% | 11.1% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 2.8% | 0.8% | | Chiltern | 34.3% | 7.4% | 43.4% | 10.2% | 3.7% | 1.0% | 0.0% | 0.3% | | South Buckinghamshire | 38.4% | 14.1% | 29.6% | 11.9% | 4.1% | 0.2% | 1.5% | 0.3% |
| | | | | | | | | | Buckinghamshire UA | 33.4% | 20.8% | 25.4% | 12.3% | 4.7% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.5% |
| | | | | | | | | | Buckinghamshire | 32.0% | 27.6% | 20.2% | 12.7% | 5.2% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.4% |
It’d still be a shock if the Tories lose Bucks in 2025. |
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Post by johnloony on Aug 2, 2024 12:13:34 GMT
Another 'wrong winner' result | | Con | Lab | LD | Ref | Grn | WP | Ind | Oth | | | | | | | | | | | | Milton Keynes | 28.7% | 43.0% | 8.1% | 13.4% | 6.3% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| | | | | | | | | | Aylesbury Vale | 32.2% | 26.2% | 19.9% | 14.8% | 5.7% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.4% | | Wycombe | 32.2% | 26.0% | 18.6% | 11.1% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 2.8% | 0.8% | | Chiltern | 34.3% | 7.4% | 43.4% | 10.2% | 3.7% | 1.0% | 0.0% | 0.3% | | South Buckinghamshire | 38.4% | 14.1% | 29.6% | 11.9% | 4.1% | 0.2% | 1.5% | 0.3% |
| | | | | | | | | | Buckinghamshire UA | 33.4% | 20.8% | 25.4% | 12.3% | 4.7% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.5% |
| | | | | | | | | | Buckinghamshire | 32.0% | 27.6% | 20.2% | 12.7% | 5.2% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.4% |
In what way is that a “wrong winner” situation? |
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Post by aargauer on Aug 2, 2024 12:31:13 GMT
Another 'wrong winner' result | | Con | Lab | LD | Ref | Grn | WP | Ind | Oth | | | | | | | | | | | | Milton Keynes | 28.7% | 43.0% | 8.1% | 13.4% | 6.3% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| | | | | | | | | | Aylesbury Vale | 32.2% | 26.2% | 19.9% | 14.8% | 5.7% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.4% | | Wycombe | 32.2% | 26.0% | 18.6% | 11.1% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 2.8% | 0.8% | | Chiltern | 34.3% | 7.4% | 43.4% | 10.2% | 3.7% | 1.0% | 0.0% | 0.3% | | South Buckinghamshire | 38.4% | 14.1% | 29.6% | 11.9% | 4.1% | 0.2% | 1.5% | 0.3% |
| | | | | | | | | | Buckinghamshire UA | 33.4% | 20.8% | 25.4% | 12.3% | 4.7% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.5% |
| | | | | | | | | | Buckinghamshire | 32.0% | 27.6% | 20.2% | 12.7% | 5.2% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.4% |
In what way is that a “wrong winner” situation? 5 Labour MPs, 2 Tories, 1 Lib Dem |
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Merseymike
Independent
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Post by Merseymike on Aug 2, 2024 12:36:07 GMT
In what way is that a “wrong winner” situation? 5 Labour MPs, 2 Tories, 1 Labour 1 LibDem? |
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Post by johnloony on Aug 2, 2024 13:20:50 GMT
In what way is that a “wrong winner” situation? 5 Labour MPs, 2 Tories, 1 Labour euk |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Aug 3, 2024 10:35:47 GMT
And another.. tactical voting was especially brutal to the Tories in the Thames Valley  | | Con | Lab | LD | Ref | Grn | Ind | WP | Oth | | | | | | | | | | | | Slough | 18.6% | 34.9% | 5.3% | 8.2% | 4.1% | 25.8% | 2.7% | 0.3% | | Windsor & Maidenhead | 36.4% | 14.4% | 35.8% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 3.2% | 0.5% | 0.6% | | Bracknell Forest | 34.3% | 29.3% | 16.0% | 13.5% | 4.9% | 1.3% |
| 0.6% | | Wokingham | 35.9% | 18.0% | 34.5% | 5.8% | 5.2% |
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| 0.7% | | Reading | 21.6% | 49.0% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 11.6% | 0.7% |
| 0.6% | | West Berkshire | 34.8% | 17.0% | 28.8% | 12.0% | 6.3% | 0.7% |
| 0.3% |
| | | | | | | | | | Berkshire | 31.2% | 25.7% | 23.4% | 8.5% | 6.2% | 4.0% | 0.4% | 0.5% |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Aug 3, 2024 10:49:03 GMT
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J.G.Harston
Lib Dem
Leave-voting Brexit-supporting Liberal Democrat
Posts: 14,755
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Post by J.G.Harston on Aug 3, 2024 15:39:56 GMT
And another.. tactical voting was especially brutal to the Tories in the Thames Valley I just recently discovered my aunt&uncle in Reading were campaigning for Yuan Yang in Earley&Woodley. They were describing the "fascinating" process of being given a pile of literature that.... only went to certain addresses! |
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Post by sanders on Aug 3, 2024 16:41:51 GMT
And another.. tactical voting was especially brutal to the Tories in the Thames Valley | | Con | Lab | LD | Ref | Grn | Ind | WP | Oth | | | | | | | | | | | | Slough | 18.6% | 34.9% | 5.3% | 8.2% | 4.1% | 25.8% | 2.7% | 0.3% | | Windsor & Maidenhead | 36.4% | 14.4% | 35.8% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 3.2% | 0.5% | 0.6% | | Bracknell Forest | 34.3% | 29.3% | 16.0% | 13.5% | 4.9% | 1.3% |
| 0.6% | | Wokingham | 35.9% | 18.0% | 34.5% | 5.8% | 5.2% |
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| 0.7% | | Reading | 21.6% | 49.0% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 11.6% | 0.7% |
| 0.6% | | West Berkshire | 34.8% | 17.0% | 28.8% | 12.0% | 6.3% | 0.7% |
| 0.3% |
| | | | | | | | | | Berkshire | 31.2% | 25.7% | 23.4% | 8.5% | 6.2% | 4.0% | 0.4% | 0.5% |
If only we still had Berkshire County Council. Many Tory voters have been Midsomer Murdered here |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Aug 4, 2024 9:34:12 GMT
 | | LD | Con | Lab | Ref | Grn | Ind | Oth | | | | | | | | | | | | | Spelthorne | 18.9% | 30.4% | 27.0% | 17.9% | 5.2% | 0.0% | 0.6% | | | Runnymede | 17.7% | 37.2% | 25.3% | 14.1% | 3.8% | 1.4% | 0.5% | | | Elmbridge | 47.7% | 32.9% | 6.6% | 9.1% | 3.0% | 0.3% | 0.4% | | | Woking | 49.9% | 26.5% | 9.2% | 10.2% | 3.8% | 0.0% | 0.3% | | | Surrey Heath | 45.4% | 32.5% | 6.4% | 13.0% | 2.5% | 0.0% | 0.2% | | | Guildford | 44.5% | 34.4% | 7.2% | 9.7% | 3.8% | 0.0% | 0.5% | | | Waverley | 39.8% | 37.5% | 9.6% | 9.3% | 3.5% | 0.2% | 0.2% | | | Mole Valley | 45.0% | 30.8% | 7.4% | 11.9% | 4.3% | 0.0% | 0.6% | | | Epsom & Ewell | 36.4% | 30.5% | 17.4% | 10.6% | 3.3% | 0.0% | 1.8% | | | Reigate & Banstead | 16.0% | 34.9% | 26.0% | 14.6% | 8.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | | | Tandridge | 18.7% | 35.8% | 19.9% | 17.0% | 5.6% | 2.3% | 0.6% | |
| | | | | | | | | | Surrey | 35.3% | 33.3% | 14.1% | 12.2% | 4.4% | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
It's funny considering how things went down in Berkshire (Conservatives 'winning' in Bracknell Forest, Wokingham, West Berkshire, but no MPs covering those areas) that the Lib Dems carried Waverley |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Aug 4, 2024 9:47:17 GMT
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