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Post by rcronald on Jun 12, 2024 9:51:18 GMT
There are still massive differences, not just personality clashes. LR is the natural home for Gaullists, libertarians and anyone on the Right who believes in free markets. If they throw themselves in with RN, you've got absolutely no outlet for liberal economics unless you vote for Macron. I really don't think RN has changed from its reaganian economics. They hate civil servants, they don't have a big presence in local government and they hate labor unions. They will have no kind of remorse cutting through foreign aid, education, social benefits etc... Discourse and action are really not the same. But they are still pro-government intervention in the economy, and protectionism. |
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Post by mrpastelito on Jun 12, 2024 9:54:51 GMT
There are still massive differences, not just personality clashes. LR is the natural home for Gaullists, libertarians and anyone on the Right who believes in free markets. If they throw themselves in with RN, you've got absolutely no outlet for liberal economics unless you vote for Macron. I really don't think RN has changed from its reaganian economics. They hate civil servants, they don't have a big presence in local government and they hate labor unions. They will have no kind of remorse cutting through foreign aid, education, social benefits etc... Discourse and action are really not the same. I agree. And now that she has performed a foreign policy U-turn and become a reliable Atlanticist, she has also become acceptable to the establishment, just like Meloni in Italy. |
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Post by relique on Jun 12, 2024 10:09:52 GMT
I really don't think RN has changed from its reaganian economics. They hate civil servants, they don't have a big presence in local government and they hate labor unions. They will have no kind of remorse cutting through foreign aid, education, social benefits etc... Discourse and action are really not the same. But they are still pro-government intervention in the economy, and protectionism. Their intervention will consist of lowering the tax rates. I know we like to reinvent things but that's the definition of anti-government. In that respect, they will only pursue the macronist agenda: lowering taxes (or rather creating new tax evasion schemes which allows them to say "we have the highest tax rates in the world", always forgetting to mention that rates don't mean actual payment: of Arnaud and others have been the most fruitful billionnaires in Europe these past few years it was not by paying the state so much money) and increasing public debt |
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Post by carlton43 on Jun 12, 2024 10:10:43 GMT
There are still massive differences, not just personality clashes. LR is the natural home for Gaullists, libertarians and anyone on the Right who believes in free markets. If they throw themselves in with RN, you've got absolutely no outlet for liberal economics unless you vote for Macron. I really don't think RN has changed from its reaganian economics. They hate civil servants, they don't have a big presence in local government and they hate labor unions. They will have no kind of remorse cutting through foreign aid, education, social benefits etc... Discourse and action are really not the same. That sounds really good to me. What's not to like? |
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right
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Post by right on Jun 12, 2024 10:21:30 GMT
There are still massive differences, not just personality clashes. LR is the natural home for Gaullists, libertarians and anyone on the Right who believes in free markets. If they throw themselves in with RN, you've got absolutely no outlet for liberal economics unless you vote for Macron. There's certainly a history of free market thought there, which shows it could (if the centre right do cosy up, probably will) tilt to a more free market vision. If Manu doesn't make it to the Presidential final two then Le Pen will be the free market choice |
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Post by rcronald on Jun 12, 2024 10:51:15 GMT
But they are still pro-government intervention in the economy, and protectionism. Their intervention will consist of lowering the tax rates. I know we like to reinvent things but that's the definition of anti-government. In that respect, they will only pursue the macronist agenda: lowering taxes (or rather creating new tax evasion schemes which allows them to say "we have the highest tax rates in the world", always forgetting to mention that rates don't mean actual payment: of Arnaud and others have been the most fruitful billionnaires in Europe these past few years it was not by paying the state so much money) and increasing public debt RN are pro tax cuts, market economics, and deregulation now? They are starting to grow on me! |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jun 12, 2024 11:01:34 GMT
There's of course another part of this story that the media haven't got to grips with, which is the story of the Left. Clearly the RN are going to do very well, but it was the success of NUPES last time that stopped Manu getting his majority.
Poor old Manu. He had to kill the mainstream parties to achieve and hold power. And now he needs them, all he can find are their corpses.
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Post by rcronald on Jun 12, 2024 11:08:28 GMT
There's of course another part of this story that the media haven't got to grips with, which is the story of the Left. Clearly the RN are going to do very well, but it was the success of NUPES last time that stopped Manu getting his majority. Poor old Manu. He had to kill the mainstream parties to achieve and hold power. And now he needs them, all he can find are their corpses. There are 3 problems that NUPES has now that it didn’t have in 2022: 1.LFI and EELV are more toxic now. 2.Bardella is (probably) more popular than Le Pen. 3.RN itself is significantly more popular now. |
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Post by Forfarshire Conservative on Jun 12, 2024 11:14:46 GMT
What are the chances of Ciotti being deposed? He has doubled down in the last few hours* so I don't think he's backtracking. * "Since 1 p.m., I have received thousands of messages of support for the right-wing rally. Thank you for your trust ! The Republicans will be there to prevent NUPES from coming to power, put an end to the migratory, security and budgetary chaos and put our ideas back in power after 12 years of absence." There's a meeting at 3pm. One of the senators, Agnès Evren, has told the press explicitly that she aims to have him deposed. In the latest twist, I've read in Le Figaro that Ciotti has had the headquarters of Les Républicains on the Rue de Vaugirard shut down. The French are seeking to outdo us in self inflicted political drama😉. |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Jun 12, 2024 11:27:44 GMT
There's of course another part of this story that the media haven't got to grips with, which is the story of the Left. Clearly the RN are going to do very well, but it was the success of NUPES last time that stopped Manu getting his majority. Poor old Manu. He had to kill the mainstream parties to achieve and hold power. And now he needs them, all he can find are their corpses. There are 3 problems that NUPES has now that it didn’t have in 2022: 1.LFI and EELV are more toxic now. 2.Bardella is (probably) more popular than Le Pen. 3.RN itself is significantly more popular now. There's also the PS's revival from the electoral dead to consider as well, last time round they were grateful for whatever scraps they could get. |
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Post by rcronald on Jun 12, 2024 11:39:19 GMT
There are 3 problems that NUPES has now that it didn’t have in 2022: 1.LFI and EELV are more toxic now. 2.Bardella is (probably) more popular than Le Pen. 3.RN itself is significantly more popular now. There's also the PS's revival from the electoral dead to consider as well, last time round they were grateful for whatever scraps they could get. Yes, if they get a decent amount of seats to contest then NUPES is in a decent position for the 2nd round. |
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Post by relique on Jun 12, 2024 11:44:31 GMT
There are 3 problems that NUPES has now that it didn’t have in 2022: 1.LFI and EELV are more toxic now. 2.Bardella is (probably) more popular than Le Pen. 3.RN itself is significantly more popular now. There's also the PS's revival from the electoral dead to consider as well, last time round they were grateful for whatever scraps they could get. Revival is a big word. Glucksmann was deemed able to contest macronist for the second position (we kept hearing about curves crossing) he didn't and in fact failed to command big leads anywhere. Think what you want about insoumis but they have commanding leads in ultra-urban areas. Of course, it will mean that they are condemned to being a minority as they have no traction elsewhere. But where Glucksmann did ok, usually he is not in the lead and PS won't get easy constituencies (and clearly need allies, while insoumis could just sweep the "banlieues" and urban areas and keep a 50 or so grouping, without an alliance). |
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right
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Post by right on Jun 12, 2024 13:08:26 GMT
There's also the PS's revival from the electoral dead to consider as well, last time round they were grateful for whatever scraps they could get. Revival is a big word. Glucksmann was deemed able to contest macronist for the second position (we kept hearing about curves crossing) he didn't and in fact failed to command big leads anywhere. Think what you want about insoumis but they have commanding leads in ultra-urban areas. Of course, it will mean that they are condemned to being a minority as they have no traction elsewhere. But where Glucksmann did ok, usually he is not in the lead and PS won't get easy constituencies (and clearly need allies, while insoumis could just sweep the "banlieues" and urban areas and keep a 50 or so grouping, without an alliance). Are they in effect (obviously not in law) a successor to the French Communist Party - more or less the same core support and a lack of much crossover support outside that? |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jun 12, 2024 15:07:57 GMT
Ciotti has not just been deposed, he has now been expelled. Annie Genevard and François-Xavier Bellamy have taken control.
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Post by rcronald on Jun 12, 2024 15:09:56 GMT
Ciotti has not just been deposed, he has now been expelled. Annie Genevard and François-Xavier Bellamy have taken control. Well, I guess RN ( or R! if he's stupid) just got a new MP. |
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right
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Post by right on Jun 12, 2024 15:10:46 GMT
Ciotti has not just been deposed, he has now been expelled. Annie Genevard and François-Xavier Bellamy have taken control. The inevitable has to wait for another couple of years I suppose |
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Post by hullenedge on Jun 12, 2024 15:46:35 GMT
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Post by rcronald on Jun 12, 2024 16:01:23 GMT
So what he's saying is that based on his model, RN is almost certainly going to win over 200 seats, and probably over 260? |
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Post by hullenedge on Jun 12, 2024 16:15:28 GMT
So what he's saying is that based on his model, RN is almost certainly going to win over 200 seats, and probably over 260? If PS voters break Left rather than for Macronists (x-axis) and turnout increases (y-axis). I assume if the reverse happens the predicted RN seats will fall below 200. |
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Post by relique on Jun 12, 2024 16:27:41 GMT
Revival is a big word. Glucksmann was deemed able to contest macronist for the second position (we kept hearing about curves crossing) he didn't and in fact failed to command big leads anywhere. Think what you want about insoumis but they have commanding leads in ultra-urban areas. Of course, it will mean that they are condemned to being a minority as they have no traction elsewhere. But where Glucksmann did ok, usually he is not in the lead and PS won't get easy constituencies (and clearly need allies, while insoumis could just sweep the "banlieues" and urban areas and keep a 50 or so grouping, without an alliance). Are they in effect (obviously not in law) a successor to the French Communist Party - more or less the same core support and a lack of much crossover support outside that? Not exactly. Communists have a common field in the banlieues (but insoumis are taking that back in national elections) but they have other places of strength for exemple the old industrial regions where RN is doing great but insoumis are not at all. That's how communists took back Lens which is in the heart of northern coal country. |
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