Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
Posts: 12,005
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Post by Khunanup on Jul 8, 2024 16:54:52 GMT
Well it's not turned out entirely like this - the RN got more than a handful of seats - but even settling aside the strengthened far left, the result may not be the win that Macronistas currently think This will also feed into an anti establishment RN narrative in the Presidentials RN came first in votes, third in seats. The left is now tied to the Establishment, and the Establishment to the left. RN can say their route is the only untried one, and their hands are the only clean ones. Yes, it will still be a disaster. EDIT: And here Ladies and gentlemen is the RN narrative To summarise, 'we won the argument'. Now where have I heard that before... 🤔 |
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right
Conservative
Posts: 18,763
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Post by right on Jul 8, 2024 19:08:42 GMT
Stitching together the left, far left, center and some bits of the center right should help the RN. It's not my political culture and so I may be missing a nuance, but still seems to play to the RN narrative. It does, but at the same time it's a dangerous game to play. If you treat everyone else as the enemy, you end up imposing a cordon sanitaire on yourself. The aim seems to be to make the RN the only untried alternative and associating every other significant political force with the failed regime |
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right
Conservative
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Post by right on Jul 8, 2024 19:15:04 GMT
This will also feed into an anti establishment RN narrative in the Presidentials RN came first in votes, third in seats. The left is now tied to the Establishment, and the Establishment to the left. RN can say their route is the only untried one, and their hands are the only clean ones. Yes, it will still be a disaster. EDIT: And here Ladies and gentlemen is the RN narrative To summarise, 'we won the argument'. Now where have I heard that before... 🤔 Bad summary It's more like the SNP losing the Indy Referendum, and what happened to all those long term Labour seats Whether that will happen or not I don't know, but if the RN want to win the Presidency this has a better chance for teeing them up than leading Parliament during the fag end of Macron's term |
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right
Conservative
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Post by right on Jul 8, 2024 19:21:49 GMT
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Post by Delighted Of Tunbridge Wells on Jul 8, 2024 19:54:55 GMT
I acknowledge his point, but it's not a given that whatever left of centre coalition is formed will be a disaster. It may end up quite popular. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 8, 2024 20:02:47 GMT
Stitching together the left, far left, center and some bits of the center right should help the RN. It's not my political culture and so I may be missing a nuance, but still seems to play to the RN narrative. It does, but at the same time it's a dangerous game to play. If you treat everyone else as the enemy, you end up imposing a cordon sanitaire on yourself. The aim of the left has to be to slowly increase the presence of PS compared to LFI, while holding off the far-right at individual elections. Incidentally is there any evidence that any individual party within NPF did noticeably better than any other? |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 8, 2024 20:08:52 GMT
I acknowledge his point, but it's not a given that whatever left of centre coalition is formed will be a disaster. It may end up quite popular. Most of the left can't stand each other, most of the centre cant stand most of the left and vice versa and the centre-right have been decimated. The chances of any coalition being formed are remote, and the chances of it being popular even more so |
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Post by akmd on Jul 8, 2024 20:15:04 GMT
Are there any constituency boundary maps available for the French Parliament? I’d be quite curious to know which Paris arrondisements are in the 2nd, 7th and 11th constituencies in particular.
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swanarcadian
Conservative & Unionist
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Member is Online
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Post by swanarcadian on Jul 8, 2024 20:24:35 GMT
Are there any constituency boundary maps available for the French Parliament? I’d be quite curious to know which Paris arrondisements are in the 2nd, 7th and 11th constituencies in particular. If only they were named rather than numbered. |
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Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
Posts: 12,005
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Post by Khunanup on Jul 8, 2024 20:29:06 GMT
To summarise, 'we won the argument'. Now where have I heard that before... 🤔 Bad summary It's more like the SNP losing the Indy Referendum, and what happened to all those long term Labour seats Whether that will happen or not I don't know, but if the RN want to win the Presidency this has a better chance for teeing them up than leading Parliament during the fag end of Macron's term Two different interpretations. Well, one of us is going to end up looking stupid. |
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Post by mattbewilson on Jul 8, 2024 20:33:43 GMT
It does, but at the same time it's a dangerous game to play. If you treat everyone else as the enemy, you end up imposing a cordon sanitaire on yourself. The aim of the left has to be to slowly increase the presence of PS compared to LFI, while holding off the far-right at individual elections. Incidentally is there any evidence that any individual party within NPF did noticeably better than any other? PS gained 40 Greens up 20 LFI up 10 Communists lost seats I think |
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Post by relique on Jul 8, 2024 20:42:50 GMT
The aim of the left has to be to slowly increase the presence of PS compared to LFI, while holding off the far-right at individual elections. Incidentally is there any evidence that any individual party within NPF did noticeably better than any other? PS gained 40 Greens up 20 LFI up 10 Communists lost seats I think LFI are down. They will probably be below 70. PS could get ahead. Communists lost but they might get 5-10 insoumis or former insoumis to join them. |
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Post by mattbewilson on Jul 8, 2024 20:45:43 GMT
PS gained 40 Greens up 20 LFI up 10 Communists lost seats I think LFI are down. They will probably be below 70. PS could get ahead. Communists lost but they might get 5-10 insoumis or former insoumis to join them. thanks for that, the ipsos numbers must have been wrong |
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Post by mattbewilson on Jul 8, 2024 20:51:16 GMT
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jul 8, 2024 21:29:47 GMT
Are there any constituency boundary maps available for the French Parliament? I’d be quite curious to know which Paris arrondisements are in the 2nd, 7th and 11th constituencies in particular. If only they were named rather than numbered. Seine Banks. Seriously though, and one for relique to help us out- but use of numbered constituencies by department goes back a long way. There was a curious hybrid system way back in the era of Charles X, but otherwise it seems to be consistent in its approach. |
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Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
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Post by Georg Ebner on Jul 8, 2024 21:47:18 GMT
Are there any constituency boundary maps available for the French Parliament? I’d be quite curious to know which Paris arrondisements are in the 2nd, 7th and 11th constituencies in particular.   |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Jul 8, 2024 21:49:19 GMT
If only they were named rather than numbered. Seine Banks. Seriously though, and one for relique to help us out- but use of numbered constituencies by department goes back a long way. There was a curious hybrid system way back in the era of Charles X, but otherwise it seems to be consistent in its approach. Are they not reasonably consistent in the geographic location of the numbers as well? And lot of places have reasonably logical numbering, unlike the US where 2 and 23 are next to each other and become 7 and 19 after redistricting...... |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jul 8, 2024 21:59:37 GMT
Seine Banks. Seriously though, and one for relique to help us out- but use of numbered constituencies by department goes back a long way. There was a curious hybrid system way back in the era of Charles X, but otherwise it seems to be consistent in its approach. Are they not reasonably consistent in the geographic location of the numbers as well? And lot of places have reasonably logical numbering, unlike the US where 2 and 23 are next to each other and become 7 and 19 after redistricting...... Good question. I've never thought about it. Time for a look! |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jul 8, 2024 22:20:28 GMT
Any excuse for this...things were better when Serge Gainsbourg was president and Charles Aznavour was in the running for PM.
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Post by relique on Jul 9, 2024 4:54:51 GMT
Seine Banks. Seriously though, and one for relique to help us out- but use of numbered constituencies by department goes back a long way. There was a curious hybrid system way back in the era of Charles X, but otherwise it seems to be consistent in its approach. Are they not reasonably consistent in the geographic location of the numbers as well? And lot of places have reasonably logical numbering, unlike the US where 2 and 23 are next to each other and become 7 and 19 after redistricting...... Numbers are all over the place because of redistrincting. There use to be a Logic of course but as the total number of constituencies change in a département... |
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