andrea
Non-Aligned
Posts: 7,772
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Post by andrea on Jul 8, 2024 7:52:20 GMT
NFP 182 MPs
Ensemble 168
RN (dont LR-RN) 143
LR 45
Other Right 15
Other Left 13
Centre 6
Régionalistes 4
Others 1
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Post by observer on Jul 8, 2024 8:30:31 GMT
Anyone have final figures for vote share?
The 37.1% RN vote is only from the votes cast yesterday...but that excludes the seats won a week ago. Those seats, of course, were where the RN vote is strongest.
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Post by mattbewilson on Jul 8, 2024 8:57:02 GMT
Anyone have final figures for vote share? The 37.1% RN vote is only from the votes cast yesterday...but that excludes the seats won a week ago. Those seats, of course, were where the RN vote is strongest. I don't think the interior ministry produces an overall tally, just the first and second round |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jul 8, 2024 8:57:24 GMT
Idk about Le Pen, but Bardella made it rather clear that he’s not pro-Putin. and this is the thing, it's Bardella not Le Pen that will be RNs candidate for PM. This obsession with focusing on Le Pen and JLM rather actually who the leaders are in parliament is purely down to either a lack of knowledge or for the drama Leaders in parliament doesn't make much of a difference to anything these days. Borne and Castex had never served in the assembly at all. Attal has never been a leader in Renaissance, Philippe leads one of the Macronist Potemkin parties. This is of course the problem, and where constitution isn't built for this sort of scenario. In the old days, it was clear who you'd call (Chirac, Jospin, and then Balladur because Chirac didn't want to be PM again). |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,889
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Post by The Bishop on Jul 8, 2024 8:59:31 GMT
This will actually work out well for the RN. Their aggregate vote is 40-42% and a government of children and fantasists will soon be in place to drive the RN vote higher. The figure I have seen is 37.1% As is often the case, said poster's posterior? |
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Post by irish observer on Jul 8, 2024 9:06:40 GMT
Pour defenser La Republic vous devois peut etre oublier la democracie, n'est c'est past. La politique est vraiment l'arts de la couers noirs! Les biennes personnes abandonnent l'espere pour entrer le profession et trouver toujours la chouette. Il n'ya pas la chouette dans la politique, soulment du sang, de la souer et des larmes. Peut etre partout n'est past soulment dans La France. Le Chagrin et La Pitié. One of my French lecturers up here was from Ireland. If that's the state of French-language knowledge on the Emerald Isle then it's a wonder I passed the course at all! Ya-til vingts ans un pied noir a dit qu'un ami "tu parles commes un negro." Le pied noir est trés desolée aprés l'election sur la dimanche. Comprende vous? Et en Irlande les pied noirs ne m'aime pas nor notre famille. |
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Post by observer on Jul 8, 2024 9:09:45 GMT
Where did the 40-42% come from?The figure I have seen is 37.1% As is often the case, said poster's posterior? A fair estimate, although please keep your head buried in the sand if the truth offends you. You possibly won't understand - or prefer not to see! - but yesterday's vote appears to have been only a tally for the votes cast yesterday. The seats voting yesterday were, by definition, those where the RN was of middling strength. The areas where the RN polled above 50% in the first round did not have to vote again. I really shouldn't have to explain this. Intelligent people can instantly see it. Still, carry on fooling yourself... |
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Post by mattbewilson on Jul 8, 2024 9:24:59 GMT
and this is the thing, it's Bardella not Le Pen that will be RNs candidate for PM. This obsession with focusing on Le Pen and JLM rather actually who the leaders are in parliament is purely down to either a lack of knowledge or for the drama Leaders in parliament doesn't make much of a difference to anything these days. Borne and Castex had never served in the assembly at all. Attal has never been a leader in Renaissance, Philippe leads one of the Macronist Potemkin parties. This is of course the problem, and where constitution isn't built for this sort of scenario. In the old days, it was clear who you'd call (Chirac, Jospin, and then Balladur because Chirac didn't want to be PM again). I get what you're saying but in this situation both the RN and NPF have built platforms for figures from their ranks to be the candidates for the premiership |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jul 8, 2024 9:42:37 GMT
As is often the case, said poster's posterior? A fair estimate, although please keep your head buried in the sand if the truth offends you. You possibly won't understand - or prefer not to see! - but yesterday's vote appears to have been only a tally for the votes cast yesterday. The seats voting yesterday were, by definition, those where the RN was of middling strength. The areas where the RN polled above 50% in the first round did not have to vote again. I really shouldn't have to explain this. Intelligent people can instantly see it. Still, carry on fooling yourself... I suppose against this you have some won by the far left on the first vote which by definition, for the most part, would be those weaker for RN. Somebody must have aggregated the votes for those seats which didn't go to a runoff and it shouldn't be difficult to add them together. The ambiguity here is a very good argument against this particular voting system (not to mention all the forced tactical voting) |
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Post by carlton43 on Jul 8, 2024 9:55:11 GMT
cogload is politically having the time of his life, with his party on its best score for a hundred years and helped kick the tories into irrelevance for at leats 5 (probably at least 8) years while the hard right takeover in France fails to come off for the five millionth time in my lifetime (just as Von Der Leyen saw off the fash in the EU elections) and, as relique points out, Melenchon ain't going to be PM either. No. More likely there will be political stalemate and absolutely no clarity whatever. I was worried that RN would be clearly the largest party or even a one seat majority because the febrile state of France, french politics and the assembly would have made their life intolerable, and involved them in decisions and compromises that would taint the brand and damage the chances of winning the presidency. It is the presidency that matters most in France. The stirrings by the malcontents will now damage other parties and every act of murder, rape, mugging, theft and terrorism is a great aid to RN who need to hold their nerve and keep aloof from the machinations whilst talking up the dangers and the damage caused by immigrants to stir the pot to their advantage and win this cultural battle for the heart of France by steady attrition as more and more people silently flake off to vote for them eventually. The right is inevitably on the rise because of immigration. |
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Post by observer on Jul 8, 2024 10:11:36 GMT
Whatever happens in France electorally the EU will intervene.
What France really needs is a party of sound money but they're all pledging to spend more when the country already has a 5% budget deficit.
They are now parasites upon the Euro
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john07
Labour & Co-operative
Posts: 15,780 
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Post by john07 on Jul 8, 2024 13:25:57 GMT
Anyone have final figures for vote share? The 37.1% RN vote is only from the votes cast yesterday...but that excludes the seats won a week ago. Those seats, of course, were where the RN vote is strongest. And how many seats did RN win outright in the first round? Very few if any I suspect. In any event there must be something very strange going on if 33% of the vote in the first round and 37% in the second round somehow adds up to 44%? Numbers not your strong point? |
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Post by observer on Jul 8, 2024 13:33:58 GMT
Anyone have final figures for vote share? The 37.1% RN vote is only from the votes cast yesterday...but that excludes the seats won a week ago. Those seats, of course, were where the RN vote is strongest. And how many seats did RN win outright in the first round? Very few if any I suspect. In any event there must be something very strange going on if 33% of the vote in the first round and 37% in the second round somehow adds up to 44%? Numbers not your strong point? Read what I wrote again. Can you do that? I estimated 40-42%, not 44% as you misread. It's a reasonable estimate given that the 39 seats in which RN came first...with 50-62%...we're not voting yesterday. Thinking difficult for you? |
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Post by mrpastelito on Jul 8, 2024 13:50:58 GMT
Anyone have final figures for vote share? The 37.1% RN vote is only from the votes cast yesterday...but that excludes the seats won a week ago. Those seats, of course, were where the RN vote is strongest. In any event there must be something very strange going on if 33% of the vote in the first round and 37% in the second round somehow adds up to 44%? Numbers not your strong point? 37, to answer that particular question. |
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right
Conservative
Posts: 18,763
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Post by right on Jul 8, 2024 14:47:27 GMT
No. More likely there will be political stalemate and absolutely no clarity whatever. I was worried that RN would be clearly the largest party or even a one seat majority because the febrile state of France, french politics and the assembly would have made their life intolerable, and involved them in decisions and compromises that would taint the brand and damage the chances of winning the presidency. It is the presidency that matters most in France. The stirrings by the malcontents will now damage other parties and every act of murder, rape, mugging, theft and terrorism is a great aid to RN who need to hold their nerve and keep aloof from the machinations whilst talking up the dangers and the damage caused by immigrants to stir the pot to their advantage and win this cultural battle for the heart of France by steady attrition as more and more people silently flake off to vote for them eventually. The right is inevitably on the rise because of immigration. I think this is the key. Although I suspect Macron's main goal was, as he stated, to bring France back to its centrist senses, the alternative of a chaotic RN led Assembly could also do that, just a bit later. The far left leading the Assembly and the Macronistas being implicated through an informal but firm electoral pact wasn't really on the cards. But now it's done. When we were asked before the first round what would be the best result for the RN I said first in votes but denied in seats by an establishment stitch up with elitists crowing about democracy winning. Well here we are. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jul 8, 2024 16:00:15 GMT
Not sure I'd call it a stitch-up. It's a known tactic, and was telegraphed well in advance. The RN knew it was coming.
That said, Bardella is correct that the NPF is a cobbled-together mess of people who hate each other, and Manu wants to corral someone of them into an even wider coalition. It just won't work. Someone was suggesting that the PCF might serve in a cabinet under Édouard Philippe - utterly delusional.
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Post by mattbewilson on Jul 8, 2024 16:19:48 GMT
Not sure I'd call it a stitch-up. It's a known tactic, and was telegraphed well in advance. The RN knew it was coming. That said, Bardella is correct that the NPF is a cobbled-together mess of people who hate each other, and Manu wants to corral someone of them into an even wider coalition. It just won't work. Someone was suggesting that the PCF might serve in a cabinet under Édouard Philippe - utterly delusional. agreed, PCF are one of the biggest losers. They wont want to go anywhere near Manu |
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Foggy
Non-Aligned
Yn Ennill Yma
Posts: 6,135
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Post by Foggy on Jul 8, 2024 16:19:52 GMT
One of my French lecturers up here was from Ireland. If that's the state of French-language knowledge on the Emerald Isle then it's a wonder I passed the course at all! Comprende vous? I mean, I think I just about do but it's painful. Requires even more concentration than deciphering Ebner-Englisch posts from Georg.  |
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right
Conservative
Posts: 18,763
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Post by right on Jul 8, 2024 16:26:17 GMT
Not sure I'd call it a stitch-up. It's a known tactic, and was telegraphed well in advance. The RN knew it was coming. That said, Bardella is correct that the NPF is a cobbled-together mess of people who hate each other, and Manu wants to corral someone of them into an even wider coalition. It just won't work. Someone was suggesting that the PCF might serve in a cabinet under Édouard Philippe - utterly delusional. Stitching together the left, far left, center and some bits of the center right should help the RN. It's not my political culture and so I may be missing a nuance, but still seems to play to the RN narrative. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jul 8, 2024 16:41:38 GMT
Not sure I'd call it a stitch-up. It's a known tactic, and was telegraphed well in advance. The RN knew it was coming. That said, Bardella is correct that the NPF is a cobbled-together mess of people who hate each other, and Manu wants to corral someone of them into an even wider coalition. It just won't work. Someone was suggesting that the PCF might serve in a cabinet under Édouard Philippe - utterly delusional. Stitching together the left, far left, center and some bits of the center right should help the RN. It's not my political culture and so I may be missing a nuance, but still seems to play to the RN narrative. It does, but at the same time it's a dangerous game to play. If you treat everyone else as the enemy, you end up imposing a cordon sanitaire on yourself. |
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