right
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Post by right on Jul 8, 2024 5:05:07 GMT
This is going to end badly. Matter of time before the bond markets through a wobbily if Melenchon has anything approaching power. How big is France's debt and deficit? My guess from this comment is in both cases. too big to shrug off a wobbly. |
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Post by aargauer on Jul 8, 2024 5:10:02 GMT
This is going to end badly. Matter of time before the bond markets through a wobbily if Melenchon has anything approaching power. How big is France's debt and deficit? My guess from this comment is in both cases. too big to shrug off a wobbly. The caveat to this is that Eurozone bonds are heavily manipulated so it's not a real market. You'd have to be verifiably insane to buy Greece at 3.6% when you can get the U.S. at 4.3%. |
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right
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Post by right on Jul 8, 2024 5:31:33 GMT
How big is France's debt and deficit? My guess from this comment is in both cases. too big to shrug off a wobbly. The caveat to this is that Eurozone bonds are heavily manipulated so it's not a real market. You'd have to be verifiably insane to buy Greece at 3.6% when you can get the U.S. at 4.3%. is that for the same duration? Cheaper interest rates than Treasuries seems crazy. Is there a heavy carry trade there? That points to a relatively small bond market, but the French economy is larger so are French bonds that controllable? |
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Post by aargauer on Jul 8, 2024 5:45:17 GMT
The caveat to this is that Eurozone bonds are heavily manipulated so it's not a real market. You'd have to be verifiably insane to buy Greece at 3.6% when you can get the U.S. at 4.3%. is that for the same duration? Cheaper interest rates than Treasuries seems crazy. Is there a heavy carry trade there? That points to a relatively small bond market, but the French economy is larger so are French bonds that controllable? That's all for 10 years. France is about 3.2% for the 10 year. |
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right
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Post by right on Jul 8, 2024 5:51:33 GMT
A large number of RN candidates getting to the second round and a panicked scramble between Macronistas and 57 varieties of Marxists to have a mutual voting pact, with the centre rightists split asunder. Then when the RN gets a tiny handful of seats with 40-45% of the second round vote have smug congratulations across the ruling class. And then have two years of general governance car crash with a hard left controlled Assembly and the RN the only substantial political force with their hands clean. And the centre right so alienated by the government they are now firmly allied. Well it's not turned out entirely like this - the RN got more than a handful of seats - but even settling aside the strengthened far left, the result may not be the win that Macronistas currently think This will also feed into an anti establishment RN narrative in the Presidentials RN came first in votes, third in seats. The left is now tied to the Establishment, and the Establishment to the left. RN can say their route is the only untried one, and their hands are the only clean ones. Yes, it will still be a disaster. EDIT: And here Ladies and gentlemen is the RN narrative |
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right
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Post by right on Jul 8, 2024 5:56:46 GMT
Thoughts and prayers with the Russian bots on this site plus the editorial staff of the Spectator. Those who love Europe most don't know it at all, pt 94 |
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Post by relique on Jul 8, 2024 5:58:08 GMT
Well it's not turned out entirely like this - the RN got more than a handful of seats - but even settling aside the strengthened far left, the result may not be the win that Macronistas currently think This will also feed into an anti establishment RN narrative in the Presidentials RN came first in votes, third in seats. The left is now tied to the Establishment, and the Establishment to the left. RN can say their route is the only untried one, and their hands are the only clean ones. Yes, it will still be a disaster. EDIT: And here Ladies and gentlemen is the RN narrative We should divide those scores by the number of candidates to get what each party got on average in the constituency they were in... |
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Post by rcronald on Jul 8, 2024 5:58:31 GMT
Well it's not turned out entirely like this - the RN got more than a handful of seats - but even settling aside the strengthened far left, the result may not be the win that Macronistas currently think This will also feed into an anti establishment RN narrative in the Presidentials RN came first in votes, third in seats. The left is now tied to the Establishment, and the Establishment to the left. RN can say their route is the only untried one, and their hands are the only clean ones. Yes, it will still be a disaster. EDIT: And here Ladies and gentlemen is the RN narrative Just goes to show that Phillipe’s strategy of keeping an equal distance from both LFI and RN was probably the right one in the long term. Attal’s strategy is likely to tie the Macronists with the radical left and probably hurt both in the long term. |
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right
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Post by right on Jul 8, 2024 6:02:11 GMT
This will also feed into an anti establishment RN narrative in the Presidentials RN came first in votes, third in seats. The left is now tied to the Establishment, and the Establishment to the left. RN can say their route is the only untried one, and their hands are the only clean ones. Yes, it will still be a disaster. EDIT: And here Ladies and gentlemen is the RN narrative We should divide those scores by the number of candidates to get what each party got on average in the constituency they were in... I don't think the RN will. It's their narrative, and if you're explaining you're losing. |
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cogload
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Post by cogload on Jul 8, 2024 6:09:18 GMT
Thoughts and prayers with the Russian bots on this site plus the editorial staff of the Spectator. Those who love Europe most don't know it at all, pt 94 F*** me. Did you read the Spectator in the week leading up to this vote? Obviously not. Those who don't understand the reference. Part 94. |
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right
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Post by right on Jul 8, 2024 6:09:43 GMT
This will also feed into an anti establishment RN narrative in the Presidentials RN came first in votes, third in seats. The left is now tied to the Establishment, and the Establishment to the left. RN can say their route is the only untried one, and their hands are the only clean ones. Yes, it will still be a disaster. EDIT: And here Ladies and gentlemen is the RN narrative Just goes to show that Phillipe’s strategy of keeping an equal distance from both LFI and RN was probably the right one in the long term. Attal’s strategy is likely to tie the Macronists with the radical left and probably hurt both in the long term. An RN win was (as I said before the first round) probably the worst result for them other than a total wipe out. Unless Macron declared martial law they would have had to take responsibility as something like a junior partner, and any Lib Dem who's memory goes back a decade knows what this can mean in the next important election. The thing is at that stage I thought my view was quite boringly consensual as I'm sure I saw others saying similar. But that was then. |
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andrea
Non-Aligned
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Post by andrea on Jul 8, 2024 6:26:31 GMT
Well, we can all go dance all night, now. Meyer Habib lost his seat. Finally. Habib got 78.64% in the consulate of Tel Aviv area. 83.4% in Jerusalem. And 72% in Haifa. But only 10% in Ankara and Istanbul. 10-20% in Athens, Thessalonique, Florence and Rome. He lost everything else by big margins too (La Valette, Nicosie, Milan, Naples), 32% in La Valette was his best results outside of Israel. |
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Post by rcronald on Jul 8, 2024 6:30:16 GMT
Well, we can all go dance all night, now. Meyer Habib lost his seat. Finally. Habib got 78.64% in the consulate of Tel Aviv area. 83.4% in Jerusalem. And 72% in Haifa. But only 10% in Ankara and Istanbul. 10-20% in Athens, Thessalonique, Florence and Rome. He lost everything else by big margins too (La Valette, Nicosie, Milan, Naples), 32% in La Valette was his best results outside of Israel. Considering that the French population in Israel has increased significantly since 2012, is there going to be any changes in the oversees constituencies so based on population? |
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Post by relique on Jul 8, 2024 6:36:41 GMT
We should divide those scores by the number of candidates to get what each party got on average in the constituency they were in... I don't think the RN will. It's their narrative, and if you're explaining you're losing. Are we on the BBC or on a psephology forum ? |
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right
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Post by right on Jul 8, 2024 6:38:44 GMT
I don't think the RN will. It's their narrative, and if you're explaining you're losing. Are we on the BBC or on a psephology forum ? I realise I'm explaining, but my point was on the narrative going into the Presidential election |
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Post by mattbewilson on Jul 8, 2024 6:58:17 GMT
Thoughts and prayers with the Russian bots on this site plus the editorial staff of the Spectator. Those who love Europe most don't know it at all, pt 94 neither le pen or melenchon were standing in these elections #smh |
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mboy
Liberal
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Post by mboy on Jul 8, 2024 7:11:26 GMT
EDIT: And here Ladies and gentlemen is the RN narrative I think there's a fair amount of truth in this. Just 6 weeks ago the RN would have snatched this current position with both hands. Today's result really just kicks the can down the road until the next election. However, I'm very pleased the RN were blocked. The most important thing by far in the world right now is stopping Putin's tanks from rolling into Eastern Europe. While Melanchon is also pro-Putin he's just a small obnoxious voice on the Left, while Le Pen is the leader of the unified far-Right. Stopping Putin's fascist invasion is so important that I simply don't care what ugly economic and social woes it builds up for a few years down the line. If Le Pen wants people like me to stop treating her like pure Kryptonite then she can do a Meloni and turn on Putin. Until that day she can go to hell in a bucket of shit. |
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Post by rcronald on Jul 8, 2024 7:13:58 GMT
EDIT: And here Ladies and gentlemen is the RN narrative I think there's a fair amount of truth in this. Just 6 weeks ago the RN would have snatched this current position with both hands. Today's result really just kicks the can down the road until the next election. However, I'm very pleased the RN were blocked. The most important thing by far in the world right now is stopping Putin's tanks from rolling into Eastern Europe. While Melanchon is also pro-Putin he's just a small obnoxious voice on the Left, while Le Pen is the leader of the unified far-Right. Stopping Putin's fascist invasion is so important that I simply don't care what ugly economic and social woes it builds up for a few years down the line. If Le Pen wants people like me to stop treating her like pure Kryptonite then she can do a Meloni and turn on Putin. Until that day she can go to hell in a bucket of shit. Idk about Le Pen, but Bardella made it rather clear that he’s not pro-Putin. |
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Post by mattbewilson on Jul 8, 2024 7:18:57 GMT
I think there's a fair amount of truth in this. Just 6 weeks ago the RN would have snatched this current position with both hands. Today's result really just kicks the can down the road until the next election. However, I'm very pleased the RN were blocked. The most important thing by far in the world right now is stopping Putin's tanks from rolling into Eastern Europe. While Melanchon is also pro-Putin he's just a small obnoxious voice on the Left, while Le Pen is the leader of the unified far-Right. Stopping Putin's fascist invasion is so important that I simply don't care what ugly economic and social woes it builds up for a few years down the line. If Le Pen wants people like me to stop treating her like pure Kryptonite then she can do a Meloni and turn on Putin. Until that day she can go to hell in a bucket of shit. Idk about Le Pen, but Bardella made it rather clear that he’s not pro-Putin. and this is the thing, it's Bardella not Le Pen that will be RNs candidate for PM. This obsession with focusing on Le Pen and JLM rather actually who the leaders are in parliament is purely down to either a lack of knowledge or for the drama |
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mboy
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Post by mboy on Jul 8, 2024 7:28:29 GMT
Bardella is Le Pen's puppet.
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