john07
Labour & Co-operative
Posts: 15,780 
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Post by john07 on Jul 7, 2024 22:19:40 GMT
This will actually work out well for the RN. Their aggregate vote is 40-42% and a government of children and fantasists will soon be in place to drive the RN vote higher. It's a good result for them The RN are due to win, circa, 142 seats out of 577. That amounts to around 24% of the seats. They were convinced they were going to be the biggest party if not with a overall majority of seats. Over-hyped and now crying foul because other parties co-operated. |
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Jul 7, 2024 22:20:18 GMT
I would imagine that whoever is PM will be weak, but the one hating that is pretty certain is that it won't be from RN. RN won't be the largest party, they probably won't even be 2nd. Which is a result for Macron. And if the PM is weak, who holds power? Who is the guy who can, at his discretion, use Article 49.3? I'm not suggesting this is a triumph, but it's not a bad result for Macron, playing a very poor hand. And I'm not convinced its a catastrophe for France (which either a RN or Melenchon government would be.) The grown-ups will have to be grown ups. At least they get the opportunity. The PM is the only one able to use article 49.3. And Macron lost his "if you don't behave you'll regret it as I will desolve" toy I stand corrected, thank you |
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Post by relique on Jul 7, 2024 22:20:19 GMT
A hard right takeover in France would require the introduction of FPTP or the RN hitting 50% - both of which are highly unlikely. It may not be FPTP, but it's worth noting that the Euro elections where RN topped the poll a month ago, are the only type of election in France to take place over a single round of voting. This probably shows why French democracy is incompatible with the EU. We as a people want to know exactly who is trending favourably to make our minds. And we love our second round. |
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Post by observer on Jul 7, 2024 22:21:25 GMT
At 40-42% of the aggregate vote the RN will be happy.
It's almost as large a vote share as Lab and LD together achieved on Thursday.
And they've forced their opponents out of cover as to where they really stand.
The politics is now crystallised for public view. It couldn't be better for the RN
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Post by rcronald on Jul 7, 2024 22:29:58 GMT
Can’t wait to see all of you smug Liberal Democrats lose your collective minds when Trump beats Biden. Your arrogance knows no bounds, ‘saw off the fash in the eu elections’ when your own EU group is likely to fall to a pathetic 5th place by the end of the month. Liberals should focus and celebrate their great performance at the GE rather than gloat about temporary setbacks for the hard right in France (btw, I would have voted LR rather than RN) when your ideology is literally collapsing into the ether in most of the developed world. Edit: the rant isn’t about you (you are a perfectly nice and knowledgeable man), but about what seems to be the constant sneering attitude and almost a superiority complex that Liberals seem to have in general. If you are in the place where your last hope is for Trump to win then you're in a bad, bad place. And where do you go if he doesn't eh? What if he loses again? What have you got? Putin? Yeah, we did see off the fash. Time after time I have the hard right bogeyman dangled in front of me. Time after time they lose. So what if "my group" are 5th in the EU - the whole point of the centrists is that we can work with the decent centre right and the decent centre left. And the whole point of the populist right and the hard left is that "all the others are the same", only they represent the people. Well, they don't. "Collapsing into the ether" my arse. Liberal democracy is constantly under threat, but it keeps winning. As for gloating: I had years of "you lost, get over it." Joe Biden is fucking my adopted country like his fucking Ukraine by being indecisive and too reliant on clueless progressives, I don’t know what Trump’s policy on Ukraine will be (I don’t think that he’s as anti-Ukraine as many seem to think that he is), but I sure do know that his Israel policy will be better for me and my fellow countrymen. The ‘hard right bogeyman’ is dangled in front of you by idiots who don’t even have a basic clue on how European elections work and who turns out for them, you should understand that and not be too stressed about it. Btw, when I’m saying that your ideology is collapsing into the ether, I’m not talking about Liberal Democracy (at least not what I consider to be liberal democracy), but about left/social-liberalism. |
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Post by mrpastelito on Jul 7, 2024 22:30:55 GMT
Can’t wait to see all of you smug Liberal Democrats lose your collective minds when Trump beats Biden. Your arrogance knows no bounds, ‘saw off the fash in the eu elections’ when your own EU group is likely to fall to a pathetic 5th place by the end of the month. Liberals should focus and celebrate their great performance at the GE rather than gloat about temporary setbacks for the hard right in France (btw, I would have voted LR rather than RN) when your ideology is literally collapsing into the ether in most of the developed world. Edit: the rant isn’t about you (you are a perfectly nice and knowledgeable man), but about what seems to be the constant sneering attitude and almost a superiority complex that Liberals seem to have in general. If you are in the place where your last hope is for Trump to win then you're in a bad, bad place. And where do you go if he doesn't eh? What if he loses again? What have you got? Putin? Yeah, we did see off the fash. Time after time I have the hard right bogeyman dangled in front of me. Time after time they lose. So what if "my group" are 5th in the EU - the whole point of the centrists is that we can work with the decent centre right and the decent centre left. And the whole point of the populist right and the hard left is that "all the others are the same", only they represent the people. Well, they don't. "Collapsing into the ether" my arse. Liberal democracy is constantly under threat, but it keeps winning. As for gloating: I had years of "you lost, get over it." So, do you still think he's perfectly nice, rcronald? Thought so. As for 'knowledgeable': he's exposed himself as an idiot and moron on all things Ukraine and Russia, but at least he's had the good sense of shutting up about it. All in all he's a classic LibDem with a constant sneering attitude and a superiority complex. |
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Post by rcronald on Jul 7, 2024 22:31:36 GMT
This will actually work out well for the RN. Their aggregate vote is 40-42% and a government of children and fantasists will soon be in place to drive the RN vote higher. It's a good result for them The RN are due to win, circa, 142 seats out of 577. That amounts to around 24% of the seats. They were convinced they were going to be the biggest party if not with an overall majority of seats. Over-hyped and now crying foul because other parties co-operated. They were overhyped, but Ens cooperating with Melenchon’s LFI (cooperating with the other parties is totally understandable) was shameful. |
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Post by relique on Jul 7, 2024 22:31:39 GMT
At 40-42% of the aggregate vote the RN will be happy. It's almost as large a vote share as Lab and LD together achieved on Thursday. And they've forced their opponents out of cover as to where they really stand. The politics is now crystallised for public view. It couldn't be better for the RN They mostly showed their glass ceiling. Even with a completely violent political class (against each others) the voters have said: we don't care you hate each other, as long as you're not RN. |
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Post by observer on Jul 7, 2024 22:35:37 GMT
At 40-42% of the aggregate vote the RN will be happy. It's almost as large a vote share as Lab and LD together achieved on Thursday. And they've forced their opponents out of cover as to where they really stand. The politics is now crystallised for public view. It couldn't be better for the RN They mostly showed their glass ceiling. Even with a completely violent political class (against each others) the voters have said: we don't care you hate each other, as long as you're not RN. Tactics! Now, any unpopular policy adopted by a new French government can be hung around the necks of the 'centre' and left parties as, when the chips were down, they were on the same side. People have for a long time said the RN had reached it's ceiling. They have been wrong every time |
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Post by rcronald on Jul 7, 2024 22:35:43 GMT
If you are in the place where your last hope is for Trump to win then you're in a bad, bad place. And where do you go if he doesn't eh? What if he loses again? What have you got? Putin? Yeah, we did see off the fash. Time after time I have the hard right bogeyman dangled in front of me. Time after time they lose. So what if "my group" are 5th in the EU - the whole point of the centrists is that we can work with the decent centre right and the decent centre left. And the whole point of the populist right and the hard left is that "all the others are the same", only they represent the people. Well, they don't. "Collapsing into the ether" my arse. Liberal democracy is constantly under threat, but it keeps winning. As for gloating: I had years of "you lost, get over it." So, do you still think he's perfectly nice, rcronald? Thought so. As for 'knowledgeable': he's exposed himself as an idiot and moron on all things Ukraine and Russia, but at least he's had the good sense of shutting up about it. All in all he's a classic LibDem with a constant sneering attitude and a superiority complex. Like other Liberals, I think that he has a little bit of a superiority complex. But no, my opinion of Adam didn’t change, like most people while not perfect, he’s thoroughly decent, and while I disagree with the vast majority of his views, he’s a knowledgeable man. |
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Post by mrpastelito on Jul 7, 2024 22:40:02 GMT
At 40-42% of the aggregate vote the RN will be happy. It's almost as large a vote share as Lab and LD together achieved on Thursday. And they've forced their opponents out of cover as to where they really stand. The politics is now crystallised for public view. It couldn't be better for the RN They mostly showed their glass ceiling. Even with a completely violent political class (against each others) the voters have said: we don't care you hate each other, as long as you're not RN. I get the impression that the glass ceiling rises a little higher with every election. HdF and PACA are looking very good for them now. |
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Post by observer on Jul 7, 2024 22:51:02 GMT
They mostly showed their glass ceiling. Even with a completely violent political class (against each others) the voters have said: we don't care you hate each other, as long as you're not RN. I get the impression that the glass ceiling rises a little higher with every election. HdF and PACA are looking very good for them now. The left and 'centre' have now crystallised their loyalties. To each other! In full public view. When policies become unpopular...they will...the public will know who to blame |
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Post by relique on Jul 7, 2024 23:14:14 GMT
What policies are you referring to in this godforsaken hung parliament ?
If the government actually resigns tomorrow, there won't be any new policy until a new one is installed. And that could take a while.
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Post by irish observer on Jul 7, 2024 23:15:10 GMT
At the end of the day seats matter but the result with the second run-off produces a skewed result whereby more motivated voters are encouraged to vote to save the centre/left/liberal norm candidate. This is in statistics sample selection bias which was engendered by so many withdrawals after the first election result.
Pour defenser La Republic vous devois peut etre oublier la democracie, n'est c'est past. La politique est vraiment l'arts de la couers noirs! Les biennes personnes abandonnent l'espere pour entrer le profession et trouver toujours la chouette. Il n'ya pas la chouette dans la politique, soulment du sang, de la souer et des larmes. Peut etre partout n'est past soulment dans La France. Le Chagrin et La Pitié.
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Foggy
Non-Aligned
Yn Ennill Yma
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Post by Foggy on Jul 8, 2024 0:16:40 GMT
Pour defenser La Republic vous devois peut etre oublier la democracie, n'est c'est past. La politique est vraiment l'arts de la couers noirs! Les biennes personnes abandonnent l'espere pour entrer le profession et trouver toujours la chouette. Il n'ya pas la chouette dans la politique, soulment du sang, de la souer et des larmes. Peut etre partout n'est past soulment dans La France. Le Chagrin et La Pitié. One of my French lecturers up here was from Ireland. If that's the state of French-language knowledge on the Emerald Isle then it's a wonder I passed the course at all! |
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john07
Labour & Co-operative
Posts: 15,780
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Post by john07 on Jul 8, 2024 0:52:08 GMT
This will actually work out well for the RN. Their aggregate vote is 40-42% and a government of children and fantasists will soon be in place to drive the RN vote higher. Where did the 40-42% come from? The figure I have seen is 37.1% |
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Post by markfoster on Jul 8, 2024 0:52:32 GMT
Hollande as a unity candidate for PM anyone?
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Jul 8, 2024 1:59:45 GMT
Melonchon or LaSalle as compromise candidate?  |
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Post by aargauer on Jul 8, 2024 4:57:22 GMT
This is going to end badly.
Matter of time before the bond markets through a wobbily if Melenchon has anything approaching power.
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right
Conservative
Posts: 18,765
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Post by right on Jul 8, 2024 5:03:12 GMT
A thought. What's the best outcome for the RN right now? There's an argument that winning these legislatives is not the best outcome. If the Macronie descends again, then they've got an enemy in place, but he's just beaten them again. Surely the best outcome is one of this new Left coalition going into Matignon with a minority government. It is guaranteed to be a complete shitshow, forces Macron to attack them, and there will definitely be a Truss moment - the bonds are already in trouble. It might just be the best result for LR - and it might even be the best result for the Macronistas. A large number of RN candidates getting to the second round and a panicked scramble between Macronistas and 57 varieties of Marxists to have a mutual voting pact, with the centre rightists split asunder. Then when the RN gets a tiny handful of seats with 40-45% of the second round vote have smug congratulations across the ruling class. And then have two years of general governance car crash with a hard left controlled Assembly and the RN the only substantial political force with their hands clean. And the centre right so alienated by the government they are now firmly allied. Well it's not turned out entirely like this - the RN got more than a handful of seats - but even settling aside the strengthened far left, the result may not be the win that Macronistas currently think |
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