Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Jul 3, 2024 7:01:14 GMT
This election is obviously very different to the UK election in many ways, but I guess it's interesting to consider that if the UK had the same electoral system, there would likely also be a unusually high number of constituencies with 3 or more candidates qualifying for the 2nd round this time. I guess the common denominator is that the vote share of the dominant party in recent years has fallen through.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jul 3, 2024 7:10:23 GMT
Very interesting thanks both. Is this something the growth of Rennes and Nantes (I know now in a different region but culturally not so much) has fuelled or is just this one element alongside the regionalism? Probably one element, but Rennes arguably trends left in a more classic way rather than having the regional element. Not sure about Nantes. Rennes interestingly has its own language -Gallo- which isn't Celtic but rather closer to Norman and the languages in the Channel Islands. |
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Crimson King
Lib Dem
Be nice to each other and sing in tune
Posts: 9,845 
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Post by Crimson King on Jul 3, 2024 8:34:50 GMT
You mean its full of good curry houses? And it has both a splendid theatre and a grand hotel de ville. Jewel of the South |
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Post by minionofmidas on Jul 3, 2024 13:51:14 GMT
So.. the 8th Finistère, the only seat there where RN came first...
RN 30
Macronist incumbent 28
PS rebel 22
official Insoumis 18
all qualified for the runoff. Surely the Left should have settled its differences and then they'd just win? Nah, gotta faire barrage. They both withdrew. Lmao.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jul 3, 2024 14:14:21 GMT
So.. the 8th Finistère, the only seat there where RN came first... RN 30 Macronist incumbent 28 PS rebel 22 official Insoumis 18 all qualified for the runoff. Surely the Left should have settled its differences and then they'd just win? Nah, gotta faire barrage. They both withdrew. Lmao. The Latin Left do like to reenact the May Days of Barcelona every so often. The Macronista should probably go and buy a lottery ticket. |
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Post by minionofmidas on Jul 3, 2024 14:25:02 GMT
So.. the 8th Finistère, the only seat there where RN came first... RN 30 Macronist incumbent 28 PS rebel 22 official Insoumis 18 all qualified for the runoff. Surely the Left should have settled its differences and then they'd just win? Nah, gotta faire barrage. They both withdrew. Lmao. The Latin Left do like to reenact the May Days of Barcelona every so often. The Macronista should probably go and buy a lottery ticket. He won from behind two years ago as well (against a leftwinger). |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jul 3, 2024 14:39:07 GMT
Actually, the person who should buy a lottery ticket is Joël Bruneau, the LR candidate in Calvados 1- the RN candidate managed to get herself snapped in a Nazi hat and has retired from the contest. Now it's him and a socialist.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jul 3, 2024 16:33:07 GMT
LFI candidate wins Guiana 2eme after the only other qualifier withdraws.
Eric Ciotti is attempting to have Xavier Bertrand expelled from LR, which adds to the soap opera.
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Post by minionofmidas on Jul 3, 2024 17:53:08 GMT
Actually, the person who should buy a lottery ticket is Joël Bruneau, the LR candidate in Calvados 1- the RN candidate managed to get herself snapped in a Nazi hat and has retired from the contest. Now it's him and a socialist. Would have won anyways. 43-35 LFI-20 RN. Joint Ensemble-LR candidate, the Mayor of Caen. Described as diverse droite, but certainly has an LR/UMP/etc background. |
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andrea
Non-Aligned
Posts: 7,773
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Post by andrea on Jul 3, 2024 18:30:29 GMT
LFI candidate wins Guiana 2eme after the only other qualifier withdraws. . He polled 60% in round 1. I think he sat with PCF rather than LFI IIRC. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jul 3, 2024 20:32:16 GMT
I had a chat with a French lad I know tonight. He struggled to sort a proxy vote so he'd gone from Germany back to Paris to vote last week.
He was relieved that the RN hadn't got through wherever he was voting...and now the LFI weren't either, he was leaving it for the second round.
Which did get me thinking that there must be a fair few who have voted LFI in one round to keep RN out, and then vote against LFI in the second round to keep them out.
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Foggy
Non-Aligned
Yn Ennill Yma
Posts: 6,135
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Post by Foggy on Jul 3, 2024 22:44:49 GMT
Which did get me thinking that there must be a fair few who have voted LFI in one round to keep RN out, and then vote against LFI in the second round to keep them out. Ah, the Macron 3D chess strategy finally paying off. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jul 3, 2024 22:55:58 GMT
Which did get me thinking that there must be a fair few who have voted LFI in one round to keep RN out, and then vote against LFI in the second round to keep them out. Ah, the Macron 3D chess strategy finally paying off. Manu himself is more like this: en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/TrictracFamiliar on the surface, appeared as a novelty, displaced all the predecessors, briefly popular, full of needless complexities that don't improve the experience, and fundamentally confined to the smarter parts of Paris before finally vanishing and being replaced by something more lasting. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jul 4, 2024 7:18:40 GMT
Prisca Thevenot, Macronist spokeswoman, has been attacked in her seat in Hauts de Seine 8eme. She got away unscathed but one of her team has been hospitalised with a broken jaw.
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Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,846
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Post by Georg Ebner on Jul 6, 2024 0:22:32 GMT
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jul 6, 2024 8:32:15 GMT
Are we ready for madness?
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,940
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Post by The Bishop on Jul 6, 2024 10:13:51 GMT
As if we haven't had enough of that already  |
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Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,846
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Post by Georg Ebner on Jul 6, 2024 17:39:29 GMT
Even French pundits at Twitter=X or other fora have not found any pollster revealing, how the voteStreams between round I and II might turn out. This is an asSumption for 2022:  IFOP came up with this:  |
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andrea
Non-Aligned
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Post by andrea on Jul 7, 2024 8:54:08 GMT
I don't like this map. I would put the eastern diagonal above Clermont and Toulouse.
My predictions for the elections:
Guadeloupe 97101 SERVA DVG
Guadeloupe 97102 PPDG
Guadeloupe 97103 TOLASSY RN
Guadeloupe 97104 DVG
Martinique 97201 WILLIAM REG
Martinique 97202 NADEAU REG
Martinique 97203 DVG
Martinique 97204 GOUSSARD REG
Guyane 97301 CASTOR REG
Guyane 97302 RIMANE REG
Saint-Pierre-et-Miquelon 97501 LENORMAND DVD
St-Barthélémy-et-St-Martin 977/97801 QUESTEL DVD
Results from American's outre-mér All going to 2nd round as nobody polled more than 25% of registered voters given turnout was low Guadeloupe 1: Serva polled 51,25%. Run off with Lerus (DVG) who got 12,76 % Guadeloupe 2: Baptiste (DVG) 41,33 % Petit (RN) 17.3% Guadeloupe 3: Mathiasin (DVG) 36.21% Tolassy (RN) 25.9% Guadeloupe 4: Califer (PS) 57.9%, Linon (DVC) 21.86% Martinique 1: Jiovanny William (Nouveau Front Populaire) 56.56% Philippe Edmond-Mariette (Gran Sanblé Pou Matinik) 13,42% Martinique 2: Marcelin Nadeau (NFP) 50,79% Yan Monplaisir (DVD) 28,59% Martinique 3: Johnny Hajjar (NFP) 37,28% Béatrice Bellay (SOC) 25,26% Martinique 4: Jean-Philippe Nilor (NFP) 63.61% Grégory Roy-Lareinty (RN) 9.94% Guyane1: Castor 62.7% Boris Chong Sit 16% Guyane 97302 Davy Rimane 60,2 % Sophie Charles 25,4 % St-Barthélémy-et-St-Martin: Frantz Gumbs 41.44% Alexandra Questel 19,92% Saint-Pierre-et-Miquelon: Stéphane Lenormand (Archipel Demain) 43% , Frédéric Beaumont (Parti socialiste) 17.56% Guadaloupe 1: Serva 77.6% Guadaloupe 2: Baptiste 72.4% Guadaloupe 3: Mathiasin 69.2& Guadaloupe 4: Califer 71.1% Martinique 1: William 81.97% Martinique 2: Nadeau 65.7% Martinique 3: Bellay 54.5% Martinique 4: Nilor 86.6% Guyane 1: Castor 76.1% Guyane 2: Rimane 100% Saint-Pierre et Miquelon': Lenormand 61.2% St-Barthélémy et St-Martin: Gumbs 55.19% |
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andrea
Non-Aligned
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Post by andrea on Jul 7, 2024 8:58:32 GMT
It looks like NPF is favoured to lose all of the 3 French Polynesia seats to a regionalist list that unites the right and centre in the 2nd round. I’m not 100% sure about the affiliations of the potential winning parties, but I believe that it would be Ens+1 RN+1 and LR+1. Moerani Frébault is already elected in 1st constituency as he polled 53.85% and was over 25% of the registered electors. 2nd: Nicole Sanquer 49.07% Steve Chailloux 42.18% 2rd: Mereana Reid Arbelot 42.71% Pascale Haiti (partner of former Polynesie president Gaston Flosse) 41.08% Polynésie française 1: Sanquer 55.88% Polynésie française 3: Reid Arbelot 50.87% |
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