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Post by observer on Jul 1, 2024 12:15:41 GMT
Here's the French problem: debt is now 112% of GDP. It's budget deficit is 5%.
70% of the population has just voted for more spending.
It's like a UK worker on average income having a 40,000 GBP credit card debt. And still be overspending by nearly 2,000 GBP per year.
And then resolving to solve his problems by spending even more.
This won't end well
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jul 1, 2024 12:31:59 GMT
This is Macron's final term. He can't stand again. I can only assume that this was his plan. 1. Prompt a Left vs Right impasse and a period of logjam or noisy uselessness in the Assembly. He may not have anticipated the Left coalescence and instead have wished for a period of FN Assembly leadership that he can mess up. 2. He can 'rise above' that. 3. Promote his favoured successor as a rational alternative to the squabbling extremes. He retains powers that can both thwart and promote. I'm not sure that he'll be that disappointed at the outcome so far. I didn't have the impression that the party he created had his strong personal commitment and some foot soldiers lost wouldn't cause him too much pain? Does this mean that if he calls a snap presidential election (which I believe he can) then he can't be the candidate? Wouldn't he have to resign to make that happen? Happy to be corrected but the rules apply to the office falling vacant, and then it is a new term, not someone making up the time until the completion of five years. So he would be barred. |
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andrea
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Post by andrea on Jul 1, 2024 12:57:47 GMT
French abroad
Constituency 3
Consulate of London
Ensembles 21 102 votes
Union de la Gaunche 17 557
Rassemblement National 3 147
Les Républicains 2 748
DVC 2 447
DVC 926
Reconquete 536
DVG 420
Ecologistes 213
DVD 195
DIV 156
Turnout 41.25%
Consulate of Edinburgh
Union de la Gaunche 1503
Ensembles 739
DVC 167
Rassemblement National 158
Les Républicains 79
DVC 44
Reconquete 27
DVG 27
DVD 10
Ecologistes 9
DIV 9
Turnout 50.18%
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right
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Post by right on Jul 1, 2024 13:03:53 GMT
Here's the French problem: debt is now 112% of GDP. It's budget deficit is 5%. 70% of the population has just voted for more spending. It's like a UK worker on average income having a 40,000 GBP credit card debt. And still be overspending by nearly 2,000 GBP per year. And then resolving to solve his problems by spending even more. This won't end well The British this week are in no place to scoff |
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Post by observer on Jul 1, 2024 13:14:53 GMT
Here's the French problem: debt is now 112% of GDP. It's budget deficit is 5%. 70% of the population has just voted for more spending. It's like a UK worker on average income having a 40,000 GBP credit card debt. And still be overspending by nearly 2,000 GBP per year. And then resolving to solve his problems by spending even more. This won't end well The British this week are in no place to scoff Yes, western electorates seems to have been infantilised |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jul 1, 2024 13:59:39 GMT
The British this week are in no place to scoff Yes, western electorates seems to have been infantilised As long as middle earners want Nordic services but Swiss taxes, it will continue. At some point, the 35-50k bracket will have to pay more to keep the show on the road. Then again, imagine trying to sell this to Brits: 30 per cent income tax on 28k-82k. You'd have a riot on your hands. |
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Post by relique on Jul 1, 2024 14:03:04 GMT
Well, that was an interesting night. Sorry for the folks here but I had other priorities than to keep you updated.
My analysis after the first round:
- The "castor-mania" to "build dams" will help Ensemble and LR but NFP not so much.
- The left abandoned the working class from the industrrialized (or former industrialized) areas and cannot win until they get them back. Only 4 seats are guaranteed in Nord, maybe none in Pas-de-Calais, etc... Interestingly, the left still has traction in the south-west "rad-soc", "gauche cassoulet".
I did some projection, without knowledge of who runs again and who doesn't.
NFP are sure of 141 seats. They should get 33 more with a low "vote friendliness" against the far-right. 70 more are targets if there is a huge "barrage" against the far-right, but I don't buy it. There are also 22 constituencies which are very difficult to predict. So I would say 175 - 190 seats max.
Ensemble are sure of 77 seats. They should get 48 more with a low "vote friendliness" against the far-right. 41 more are targets with a huge "barrage". They are involved in 20 of the very difficult constituencies to predict. I'd say 130-150 seats.
LR, independent right-wing or centrists (including LIOT and over-sees right-wing) are sure of 33 seats. They should get 13 more with a low "vote-friendliness". 30 more are targets with a huge "barrage". They are involved in 2 constituencies tough to predict. I'd say 45-60 for them.
RN are sure of 69 seats but, if there isn't a huge "barrage" against them, they should get 141 more. There are 94 targets in a low "barrage" framework, and they are involved in the 22 constituencies tough to predict. So I'd say 210-230 seats.
I'll give a more detailed study when we'll know who will be candidate.
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right
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Post by right on Jul 1, 2024 14:03:38 GMT
Yes, western electorates seems to have been infantilised As long as middle earners want Nordic services but Swiss taxes, it will continue. At some point, the 35-50k bracket will have to pay more to keep the show on the road. Then again, imagine trying to sell this to Brits: 30 per cent income tax on 28k-82k. You'd have a riot on your hands. These are where sin and environmental taxes come in useful They're not regressive money spinners, they're about changing damaging behaviour |
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Post by observer on Jul 1, 2024 14:24:03 GMT
As long as middle earners want Nordic services but Swiss taxes, it will continue. At some point, the 35-50k bracket will have to pay more to keep the show on the road. Then again, imagine trying to sell this to Brits: 30 per cent income tax on 28k-82k. You'd have a riot on your hands. These are where sin and environmental taxes come in useful They're not regressive money spinners, they're about changing damaging behaviour Surely such taxes are highly regressive? People are waking up to what they are |
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Post by johnloony on Jul 1, 2024 14:40:01 GMT
I haven’t had time to look at the results in detail, but what would be the overall result if we simply took the results from the first round and counted it as a FPTP election? Is it a RN landslide?
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right
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Post by right on Jul 1, 2024 14:54:10 GMT
These are where sin and environmental taxes come in useful They're not regressive money spinners, they're about changing damaging behaviour Surely such taxes are highly regressive? People are waking up to what they are But it's to stop destructive behaviour. I agree there's a limit, but it's a high one. Without a massive and so far elusive spurt of growth - and only Truss is calling for that and she's just ridiculous - we have to either massively raise taxes on the less mobile middle and lower ends of the income scale or slash state spending. So we'll kick the can |
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Post by observer on Jul 1, 2024 15:05:28 GMT
Surely such taxes are highly regressive? People are waking up to what they are But it's to stop destructive behaviour. I agree there's a limit, but it's a high one. Without a massive and so far elusive spurt of growth - and only Truss is calling for that and she's just ridiculous - we have to either massively raise taxes on the less mobile middle and lower ends of the income scale or slash state spending. So we'll kick the can We have to bite the bullet and cut spending. We spend more and more. Taxes are at their highest in over 70 years. Yet public services get worse . We're on a treadmill. With closed eyes. We need a visionary like Milei |
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Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on Jul 1, 2024 15:25:51 GMT
As long as middle earners want Nordic services but Swiss taxes, it will continue. At some point, the 35-50k bracket will have to pay more to keep the show on the road. Then again, imagine trying to sell this to Brits: 30 per cent income tax on 28k-82k. You'd have a riot on your hands. These are where sin and environmental taxes come in useful They're not regressive money spinners, they're about changing damaging behaviour They haven't worked so far! (Having the most expensive alcohol duties in Europe doesn't help anybody, for one thing) |
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andrea
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Post by andrea on Jul 1, 2024 15:28:19 GMT
I haven’t had time to look at the results in detail, but what would be the overall result if we simply took the results from the first round and counted it as a FPTP election? Is it a RN landslide? According to Le Figaro map, 1st placed candidates: RN 297 NFP 155 ENS 62 LR 34 Other Left 13 Regionalistes 9 Other center 3 Horizons 3 Ecologistes 1 |
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right
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Post by right on Jul 1, 2024 15:43:46 GMT
These are where sin and environmental taxes come in useful They're not regressive money spinners, they're about changing damaging behaviour They haven't worked so far! (Having the most expensive alcohol duties in Europe doesn't help anybody, for one thing) Raises a fair deal of money |
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right
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Post by right on Jul 1, 2024 15:45:13 GMT
I haven’t had time to look at the results in detail, but what would be the overall result if we simply took the results from the first round and counted it as a FPTP election? Is it a RN landslide? According to Le Figaro map, 1st placed candidates: RN 297 NFP 155 ENS 62 LR 34 Other Left 13 Regionalistes 9 Other center 3 Horizons 3 Ecologistes 1 So even if he does thwart RN in the second round (not guaranteed) then he will have still destroyed his own base of parliamentary support? |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jul 1, 2024 16:15:52 GMT
These are where sin and environmental taxes come in useful They're not regressive money spinners, they're about changing damaging behaviour They haven't worked so far! (Having the most expensive alcohol duties in Europe doesn't help anybody, for one thing) I seem to remember that Finland had the highest prices and the highest level of arrests per capita for drunk and disorderly behaviour. (And if you've ever seen Swedes near cheap booze, it's a sight you won't forget) |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jul 1, 2024 18:39:36 GMT
A lot of divisions opening up in the Macroniste camps. Le Maire and Philippe have both asked candidates not to stand down if it is in favour of a LFI candidate. Some agree, others not. On the whole, it is the members of Horizons (the Philippe lot) attracting attention- 3 have stepped down in Herault, without calling for a vote for anyone else.
The latest figures on those standing aside are:
104 NFP (of which 38 LFI, 28 PS, 20 Greens of various types, 16 PCF, 1 Place Publique and 1 GenerationS)
48 Macronistes (35 Renaissance, 6 MoDem, 6 Horizons, one UDI).
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Jul 1, 2024 18:41:39 GMT
Are you thinking of the 1969 referendum? It's ended up like that, but I was thinking of the general's gambit in 1968 with the elections. Someone from deGaulle's outer Inner Circle assured me The General was fully aware, that he couldn't win the referendum, and instead conducted it for having an excuse to retire. Perhaps just a mythification of his idol, perhaps true. |
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Jul 1, 2024 18:44:48 GMT
What do others say: Since 1986 i was reading thin austrian newsPaper-articles, since 1993 buying expensive French newsPapers - but i am not aware of any election so unpredictable.
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