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Post by rcronald on Jul 1, 2024 7:02:05 GMT
not to mention the ridiculous amount of seats where RN just received 47-50% of vote and are runoffs in name only. One of the Bouches du Rhone seats is something like 48.8 per cent RN, and more than 1 per cent Zemmourist. With an extra 10 per cent LR. What a waste of taxpayer money, if the candidate is so close to 50% the 2nd place should just withdraw.
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andrea
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Post by andrea on Jul 1, 2024 7:24:46 GMT
One of the Bouches du Rhone seats is something like 48.8 per cent RN, and more than 1 per cent Zemmourist. With an extra 10 per cent LR. What a waste of taxpayer money, if the candidate is so close to 50% the 2nd place should just withdraw. In some Pacific constituencies there are run offs with a candidate at 60% because turnout was low and so he was below 25% of electorate threshold
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Jul 1, 2024 7:50:14 GMT
After all the antiFa-hysteria of the-brown-flood-comes-over-us it turns out, that - leaving allies aside - NFP ended narrowly ahead of RN... they didn’t… Depends on whom one includes or not.
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right
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Post by right on Jul 1, 2024 8:11:51 GMT
So how close does the RN need to be in a constituency to be expected to win? I know it differs according to opponents, but surely they are still less transfer friendly than the centre and a good chunk of the left. And the un transfer friendly bits of the left tended to avoid the marginal constituencies.
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Post by timrollpickering on Jul 1, 2024 8:37:44 GMT
Whatever happens next week one thing is pretty clear. Macron has essentially obliterated the parliamentary group of his own party. You have to ask the question, just what the hell was he thinking? Aspires to be the French Nick Clegg? Or maybe more than one person thought this: I thought it was Chris Leslie who thought that Emmanuel Macron is France's answer to Chris Leslie?
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Post by observer on Jul 1, 2024 8:40:14 GMT
I see the French stock market is up by 2.6% this morning
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right
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Post by right on Jul 1, 2024 8:48:23 GMT
I see the French stock market is up by 2.6% this morning What's the cause of that rally? Macron doing better than expected (which sounds bizarre) or the left not seeming able to get a majority in the Assembly?
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Post by observer on Jul 1, 2024 9:03:01 GMT
I see the French stock market is up by 2.6% this morning What's the source of that? Macron doing better than expected (which sounds bizarre) or the left not seeming able to get a majority in the Assembly? I wish I knew!
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Jul 1, 2024 9:56:02 GMT
I see the French stock market is up by 2.6% this morning What's the cause of that rally? Macron doing better than expected (which sounds bizarre) or the left not seeming able to get a majority in the Assembly? Its actually relief that RN might not get an overall majority, apparently.
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Post by observer on Jul 1, 2024 9:59:19 GMT
What's the cause of that rally? Macron doing better than expected (which sounds bizarre) or the left not seeming able to get a majority in the Assembly? Its actually relief that RN might not get an overall majority, apparently. Quite possible. If the Left take power it'll put rocket boosters under the RN for the presidential campaign
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Jul 1, 2024 10:00:39 GMT
Its actually relief that RN might not get an overall majority, apparently. Quite possible. If the Left take power it'll put rocket boosters under the RN for the presidential campaign Highly unlikely (unfortunately)
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Post by minionofmidas on Jul 1, 2024 10:00:53 GMT
Whatever happens next week one thing is pretty clear. Macron has essentially obliterated the parliamentary group of his own party. You have to ask the question, just what the hell was he thinking? He reasoned that if it worked for such trivial figures as Charles de Gaulle, it would work for the great problem solver of modern France. And even more spectacularly. Are you thinking of the 1969 referendum?
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jul 1, 2024 10:07:35 GMT
He reasoned that if it worked for such trivial figures as Charles de Gaulle, it would work for the great problem solver of modern France. And even more spectacularly. Are you thinking of the 1969 referendum? It's ended up like that, but I was thinking of the general's gambit in 1968 with the elections.
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Post by matureleft on Jul 1, 2024 10:25:59 GMT
This is Macron's final term. He can't stand again.
I can only assume that this was his plan. 1. Prompt a Left vs Right impasse and a period of logjam or noisy uselessness in the Assembly. He may not have anticipated the Left coalescence and instead have wished for a period of FN Assembly leadership that he can mess up. 2. He can 'rise above' that. 3. Promote his favoured successor as a rational alternative to the squabbling extremes. He retains powers that can both thwart and promote.
I'm not sure that he'll be that disappointed at the outcome so far. I didn't have the impression that the party he created had his strong personal commitment and some foot soldiers lost wouldn't cause him too much pain?
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jul 1, 2024 10:44:31 GMT
This is Macron's final term. He can't stand again. I can only assume that this was his plan. 1. Prompt a Left vs Right impasse and a period of logjam or noisy uselessness in the Assembly. He may not have anticipated the Left coalescence and instead have wished for a period of FN Assembly leadership that he can mess up. 2. He can 'rise above' that. 3. Promote his favoured successor as a rational alternative to the squabbling extremes. He retains powers that can both thwart and promote. I'm not sure that he'll be that disappointed at the outcome so far. I didn't have the impression that the party he created had his strong personal commitment and some foot soldiers lost wouldn't cause him too much pain? There is a school of thought that he didn't anticipate the Left coalescing at all, and that his plan was: 1. Squeeze his candidates through against a divided left 2. Knock out LFI this way 3. Play the father of the nation and act as the head of the great republican barrage to then keep out RN.
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Post by finsobruce on Jul 1, 2024 10:51:11 GMT
This is Macron's final term. He can't stand again. I can only assume that this was his plan. 1. Prompt a Left vs Right impasse and a period of logjam or noisy uselessness in the Assembly. He may not have anticipated the Left coalescence and instead have wished for a period of FN Assembly leadership that he can mess up. 2. He can 'rise above' that. 3. Promote his favoured successor as a rational alternative to the squabbling extremes. He retains powers that can both thwart and promote. I'm not sure that he'll be that disappointed at the outcome so far. I didn't have the impression that the party he created had his strong personal commitment and some foot soldiers lost wouldn't cause him too much pain? There is a school of thought that he didn't anticipate the Left coalescing at all, and that his plan was: 1. Squeeze his candidates through against a divided left 2. Knock out LFI this way 3. Play the father of the nation and act as the head of the great republican barrage to then keep out RN. les plans les mieux élaborés des souris et des hommes
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Post by irish observer on Jul 1, 2024 11:06:23 GMT
Whatever happens next week one thing is pretty clear. Macron has essentially obliterated the parliamentary group of his own party. You have to ask the question, just what the hell was he thinking? He reasoned that if it worked for such trivial figures as Charles de Gaulle, it would work for the great problem solver of modern France. And even more spectacularly. Mais Macron n'est pas De Gaulle! J'avoir regarder ma couer et je comprends La France, c'est Macron, n'est ce past De Gaulle! Remember Kelly's Heroes. Look It's De Gaulle!
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right
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Post by right on Jul 1, 2024 11:28:57 GMT
This is Macron's final term. He can't stand again. I can only assume that this was his plan. 1. Prompt a Left vs Right impasse and a period of logjam or noisy uselessness in the Assembly. He may not have anticipated the Left coalescence and instead have wished for a period of FN Assembly leadership that he can mess up. 2. He can 'rise above' that. 3. Promote his favoured successor as a rational alternative to the squabbling extremes. He retains powers that can both thwart and promote. I'm not sure that he'll be that disappointed at the outcome so far. I didn't have the impression that the party he created had his strong personal commitment and some foot soldiers lost wouldn't cause him too much pain? Does this mean that if he calls a snap presidential election (which I believe he can) then he can't be the candidate?
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Post by eastmidlandsright on Jul 1, 2024 11:52:37 GMT
This is Macron's final term. He can't stand again. I can only assume that this was his plan. 1. Prompt a Left vs Right impasse and a period of logjam or noisy uselessness in the Assembly. He may not have anticipated the Left coalescence and instead have wished for a period of FN Assembly leadership that he can mess up. 2. He can 'rise above' that. 3. Promote his favoured successor as a rational alternative to the squabbling extremes. He retains powers that can both thwart and promote. I'm not sure that he'll be that disappointed at the outcome so far. I didn't have the impression that the party he created had his strong personal commitment and some foot soldiers lost wouldn't cause him too much pain? The problem with this theory is that if there is chaos everyone will know that it was Macron who caused it.
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Jul 1, 2024 12:04:02 GMT
This is Macron's final term. He can't stand again. I can only assume that this was his plan. 1. Prompt a Left vs Right impasse and a period of logjam or noisy uselessness in the Assembly. He may not have anticipated the Left coalescence and instead have wished for a period of FN Assembly leadership that he can mess up. 2. He can 'rise above' that. 3. Promote his favoured successor as a rational alternative to the squabbling extremes. He retains powers that can both thwart and promote. I'm not sure that he'll be that disappointed at the outcome so far. I didn't have the impression that the party he created had his strong personal commitment and some foot soldiers lost wouldn't cause him too much pain? The problem with this theory is that if there is chaos everyone will know that it was Macron who caused it.
Chaos leads to the forming of the 6th Republic, as it is new Macron is not term limited, so can restand and win, all runs a planned for Macron the eternal president.
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