European Lefty
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Post by European Lefty on Jun 30, 2024 23:35:35 GMT
Several Ensemble deputies including a couple of ministers are pulling out of the second round. Only exception I've found so far is Bouches-du-Rhône-14 (Aix-en-Provence)
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J.G.Harston
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Post by J.G.Harston on Jul 1, 2024 0:24:15 GMT
British news reports are making this very confusing. Lots of reports of "consolidate votes on the left to stop RN winning in the second round".
yerwot? But, it's a legislative election, not an election for a single post. You only "stop RN winning in the second round" if it's a two-round election for a single post.
I had to do some digging to work out the actual situation. Yes, it is 577 seperate elections for 577 seperate seats in the legislataive election. yes, it's a two-round election for each of theose seperate 577 elections - if that particular election is not won by a candiate with 50% or more of the vote.
As it turns out, 77 seats have already been filled because the candidate won 50% plus. "Only" 500 seats are going to a second round.
NONE! of the news reports clarify this. Everything reported gives the impression that "RN have only got 37%, make sure you vote for somebody else to stop RN winning (implied: anything) in the second round".
As it turns out, 38 of those "already won" seats have been won by rightist RN and 33 by the leftist Popular Front - so it's more like 52/48 (ah no, not again!), not an RN landslide.
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J.G.Harston
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Post by J.G.Harston on Jul 1, 2024 0:43:50 GMT
Whatever happens next week one thing is pretty clear. Macron has essentially obliterated the parliamentary group of his own party. You have to ask the question, just what the hell was he thinking? Aspires to be the French Nick Clegg?
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Post by eastmidlandsright on Jul 1, 2024 0:51:15 GMT
British news reports are making this very confusing. Lots of reports of "consolidate votes on the left to stop RN winning in the second round". yerwot? But, it's a legislative election, not an election for a single post. You only "stop RN winning in the second round" if it's a two-round election for a single post. I had to do some digging to work out the actual situation. Yes, it is 577 seperate elections for 577 seperate seats in the legislataive election. yes, it's a two-round election for each of theose seperate 577 elections - if that particular election is not won by a candiate with 50% or more of the vote. As it turns out, 77 seats have already been filled because the candidate won 50% plus. "Only" 500 seats are going to a second round. NONE! of the news reports clarify this. Everything reported gives the impression that "RN have only got 37%, make sure you vote for somebody else to stop RN winning (implied: anything) in the second round". As it turns out, 38 of those "already won" seats have been won by rightist RN and 33 by the leftist Popular Front - so it's more like 52/48 (ah no, not again!), not an RN landslide. The British media can barely understand our own politics and electoral system, the idea that they can understand that of another country is absurd. Why would you even waste your time looking at how the likes of the BBC cover this election?
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Post by rcronald on Jul 1, 2024 3:18:50 GMT
According to the exit poll: RN won the non-Christian non-atheist vote…
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Jul 1, 2024 5:09:36 GMT
British news reports are making this very confusing. Lots of reports of "consolidate votes on the left to stop RN winning in the second round". yerwot? But, it's a legislative election, not an election for a single post. You only "stop RN winning in the second round" if it's a two-round election for a single post. I had to do some digging to work out the actual situation. Yes, it is 577 seperate elections for 577 seperate seats in the legislataive election. yes, it's a two-round election for each of theose seperate 577 elections - if that particular election is not won by a candiate with 50% or more of the vote. As it turns out, 77 seats have already been filled because the candidate won 50% plus. "Only" 500 seats are going to a second round. NONE! of the news reports clarify this. Everything reported gives the impression that "RN have only got 37%, make sure you vote for somebody else to stop RN winning (implied: anything) in the second round". As it turns out, 38 of those "already won" seats have been won by rightist RN and 33 by the leftist Popular Front - so it's more like 52/48 (ah no, not again!), not an RN landslide. Oh, it's far worse: Several have won over 50% and nonetheless lost (i.e. must go into a runOff) - because they didn't get 25% of all registered voters.
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Jul 1, 2024 5:24:51 GMT
After all the antiFa-hysteria of the-brown-flood-comes-over-us it turns out, that - leaving allies aside - NFP ended narrowly ahead of RN...
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Post by rcronald on Jul 1, 2024 5:25:44 GMT
After all the antiFa-hysteria of the-brown-flood-comes-over-us it turns out, that - leaving allies aside - NFP ended narrowly ahead of RN... they didn’t…
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andrea
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Post by andrea on Jul 1, 2024 6:07:09 GMT
Clémentine Autain just got 63.15% in St Denis 11th And an Insoumise has just hit 64 in Paris 17th. In the end, the top score was Stephane Peu of PCF polling 71.8% in Seine Saint Denis 2
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Post by rcronald on Jul 1, 2024 6:10:08 GMT
And an Insoumise has just hit 64 in Paris 17th. In the end, the top score was Stephane Peu of PCF polling 71.8% in Seine Saint Denis 2 That’s NFP’s main problem, their vote is too concentrated. Look at the amount of constituencies where RN received between 45-55% of the vote and compare that to NFP. A lot of wasted votes.
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andrea
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Post by andrea on Jul 1, 2024 6:23:12 GMT
Aisne : - José Beaurain (RN) - Eddy Casterman (RN) - Jocelyn Dessigny (RN) - Nicolas Dragon (RN)
Alpes-Maritimes : - Christelle D'intorni (LR-RN) - Alexandra Masson (RN) - Bryan Masson (RN)
Ariège : - Martine Frogner (PS)
Aube : - Jordan Guitton (RN)
Bouches-du-Rhône : - Franck Allisio (RN) - Manuel Bompard (NFP-LFI) - Sébastien Delogu (NFP-LFI)
Gard : - Nicolas Meizonnet (RN)
Gironde : - Edwige Diaz (RN)
Haute-Garonne : - François Piquemal (NFP-LFI)
Haute-Marne : - Laurence Robert-Dehault (RN)
Haute-Saône : - Emeric Salmon (RN)
Hauts-de-Seine : - Pierre Cazeneuve (Ensemble) - Elsa Faucillon (NFP-PCF) - Philippe Juvin (LR) - Aurélien Saintoul (NFP-LFI)
Hérault : - Aurélien Lopez-Liguori (RN) - Nathalie Oziol (NFP-LFI)
Ille-et-Vilaine : - Mickaël Bouloux (NFP-PS)
Loire-Atlantique : - Andy Kerbrat (NFP-LFI)
Mayotte : - Estelle Youssouffa (DVD)
Meuse : - Florence Goulet (RN)
Moselle : - Alexandra Loubet (RN) - Kevin Pfeffer (RN)
Nord : - Sébastien Chenu (RN) - Sandra Delannoy (RN) - Alexandre Duffoset (RN) - Guillaume Florquin (RN) - Matthieu Marchio (RN) - Michael Taverne (RN)
Oise : - Philippe Ballard (RN)
Pas-de-Calais : - Bruno Bilde (RN) - Emmanuel Blairy (RN) - Bruno Clavet (RN) - Christine Engrand (RN) - Thierry Frappé (RN) - Marine Le Pen (RN)
Paris : - Pouria Amirshahi (NFP-Greens) - Rodrigo Arenas (NFP-LFI) - Aymeric Caron (NFP-LFI) - Sophia Chikirou (NFP-LFI) - Emmanuel Grégoire (NFP-PS) - Sarah Legrain (NFP-LFI) - Danièle Obono (NFP-LFI) - Sandrine Rousseau (NFP-Greens) - Eva Sas (NFP-Greens)
Polynésie Française : - Moerani Frébault (DVC)
Pyrénées-Orientales : - Anaïs Sabatini (RN)
Rhône : - Marie-Charlotte Garin (NFP-Greens)
Seine-et-Marne : - Olivier Faure (NFP-PS)
Seine-Saint-Denis : - Nadège Abomangoli (NFP-LFI) - Clémentine Autain (NFP-LFI) - Éric Coquerel (NFP-LFI) - Fatiha Keloua Hachi (NFP-LFI) - Bastien Lachaud (NFP-LFI) - Stéphane Peu (NFP-PCF) - Aurélie Trouvé (NFP-LFI)
Somme : - Yaël Menache (RN)
Val-de-Marne : - Mathilde Panot (NFP-LFI) - Isabelle Santiago (NFP-PS) - Sophie Taillé-Polian (NFP-LFI)
Val d'Oise : - Carlos Martens Bilongo (NFP-LFI) - Paul Vannier (NFP-LFI)
Var : - Franck Giletti (RN) - Laure Lavalette (RN) - Julie Lechanteux (RN) - Philippe Lottiaux (RN) - Philippe Schreck (RN)
Vaucluse : - Hervé de Lépinau (RN)
Yonne : - Julien Odoul (RN)
Wallis-et-Futuna : - Mikaele Seo (Ensemble)
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jul 1, 2024 6:29:15 GMT
Whatever happens next week one thing is pretty clear. Macron has essentially obliterated the parliamentary group of his own party. You have to ask the question, just what the hell was he thinking? He reasoned that if it worked for such trivial figures as Charles de Gaulle, it would work for the great problem solver of modern France. And even more spectacularly.
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Post by rcronald on Jul 1, 2024 6:32:13 GMT
Whatever happens next week one thing is pretty clear. Macron has essentially obliterated the parliamentary group of his own party. You have to ask the question, just what the hell was he thinking? He reasoned that if it worked for such trivial figures as Charles de Gaulle, it would work for the great problem solver of modern France. And even more spectacularly. He’s not CdG, he’s just a victim of grooming by his nonce wife.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jul 1, 2024 6:41:38 GMT
This entire debacle is arguably the natural conclusion of the Macron project. Which was reliant on the collapse of the other mainstream currents.
French liberalism was dead, or worse, in the hands of Bayrou. There was the opening.
Then, the mainstream left had to die so that he could sideline or co-opt it. The survivors had to throw their lot in with the kind of people they used to hate.
Then, the mainstream right had to die. Now half the survivors have done the same.
Which left the fringes. And he turned it into a choice between him and them.
Et voilà - he has not only destroyed his own group, there's nobody left to work with.
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andrea
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Post by andrea on Jul 1, 2024 6:44:00 GMT
I blame one of the French newspapers who published the list She should be styled as PS. She refused the NFP label.
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Post by rcronald on Jul 1, 2024 6:45:06 GMT
I blame one of the French newspapers who published the list She should be styled as PS. She refused the NFP label. So we were both wrong 🫤
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Post by eastmidlandsright on Jul 1, 2024 6:49:10 GMT
As it turns out, 38 of those "already won" seats have been won by rightist RN and 33 by the leftist Popular Front - so it's more like 52/48 (ah no, not again!), not an RN landslide. The number won yesterday is of little to no importance. What matters is is how many constituencies a party is in contention going into the second round. On that basis RN looks highly likely to be the largest party after the second round and they have a shot at a majority. In 2022 only five seats were won in the first round with the main left wing alliance winning four of them but to describe that as an 80/20 win would have been ludicrous.
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Post by rcronald on Jul 1, 2024 6:51:38 GMT
As it turns out, 38 of those "already won" seats have been won by rightist RN and 33 by the leftist Popular Front - so it's more like 52/48 (ah no, not again!), not an RN landslide. The number won yesterday is of little to no importance. What matters is is how many constituencies a party is in contention going into the second round. On that basis RN looks highly likely to be the largest party after the second round and they have a shot at a majority. In 2022 only five seats were won in the first round with the main left wing alliance winning four of them but to describe that as an 80/20 win would have been ludicrous. not to mention the ridiculous amount of seats where RN just received 47-50% of vote and are runoffs in name only.
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andrea
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Post by andrea on Jul 1, 2024 6:54:52 GMT
I blame one of the French newspapers who published the list She should be styled as PS. She refused the NFP label. So we were both wrong 🫤 But I more than you. NFP didn't put up an official candidate against her. So it was effectively grandstanding
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jul 1, 2024 6:57:50 GMT
The number won yesterday is of little to no importance. What matters is is how many constituencies a party is in contention going into the second round. On that basis RN looks highly likely to be the largest party after the second round and they have a shot at a majority. In 2022 only five seats were won in the first round with the main left wing alliance winning four of them but to describe that as an 80/20 win would have been ludicrous. not to mention the ridiculous amount of seats where RN just received 47-50% of vote and are runoffs in name only. One of the Bouches du Rhone seats is something like 48.8 per cent RN, and more than 1 per cent Zemmourist. With an extra 10 per cent LR.
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