Georg Ebner
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Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,523
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Post by Georg Ebner on Jun 30, 2024 1:59:16 GMT
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jun 30, 2024 9:19:41 GMT
It appears that one of Ciotti's goons in Nice has attempted to prevent a polling station opening, and then has assaulted the bloke running it.
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andrea
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Posts: 7,751
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Post by andrea on Jun 30, 2024 9:29:25 GMT
Oh well, in it Toulouse - i.i.r.c. for some time the fastest growing city... I don't like this map. I would put the eastern diagonal above Clermont and Toulouse.
My predictions for the elections:
Guadeloupe 97101 SERVA DVG Guadeloupe 97102 PPDG Guadeloupe 97103 TOLASSY RN Guadeloupe 97104 DVG
Martinique 97201 WILLIAM REG Martinique 97202 NADEAU REG Martinique 97203 DVG Martinique 97204 GOUSSARD REG
Guyane 97301 CASTOR REG Guyane 97302 RIMANE REG
Saint-Pierre-et-Miquelon 97501 LENORMAND DVD
St-Barthélémy-et-St-Martin 977/97801 QUESTEL DVD
Results from American's outre-mér All going to 2nd round as nobody polled more than 25% of registered voters given turnout was low Guadeloupe 1: Serva polled 51,25%. Run off with Lerus (DVG) who got 12,76 % Guadeloupe 2: Baptiste (DVG) 41,33 % Petit (RN) 17.3% Guadeloupe 3: Mathiasin (DVG) 36.21% Tolassy (RN) 25.9% Guadeloupe 4: Califer (PS) 57.9%, Linon (DVC) 21.86% Martinique 1: Jiovanny William (Nouveau Front Populaire) 56.56% Philippe Edmond-Mariette (Gran Sanblé Pou Matinik) 13,42% Martinique 2: Marcelin Nadeau (NFP) 50,79% Yan Monplaisir (DVD) 28,59% Martinique 3: Johnny Hajjar (NFP) 37,28% Béatrice Bellay (SOC) 25,26% Martinique 4: Jean-Philippe Nilor (NFP) 63.61% Grégory Roy-Lareinty (RN) 9.94% Guyane1: Castor 62.7% Boris Chong Sit 16% Guyane 97302 Davy Rimane 60,2 % Sophie Charles 25,4 % St-Barthélémy-et-St-Martin: Frantz Gumbs 41.44% Alexandra Questel 19,92% Saint-Pierre-et-Miquelon: Stéphane Lenormand (Archipel Demain) 43% , Frédéric Beaumont (Parti socialiste) 17.56%
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andrea
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Post by andrea on Jun 30, 2024 9:32:41 GMT
For super anoraks: the photo of the sheet with the figures by polling stations from the island of Saint Martin
/photo/1
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Post by rcronald on Jun 30, 2024 10:11:15 GMT
It looks like NPF is favoured to lose all of the 3 French Polynesia seats to a regionalist list that unites the right and centre in the 2nd round. I’m not 100% sure about the affiliations of the potential winning parties, but I believe that it would be Ens+1 RN+1 and LR+1.
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andrea
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Post by andrea on Jun 30, 2024 10:31:19 GMT
It looks like NPF is favoured to lose all of the 3 French Polynesia seats to a regionalist list that unites the right and centre in the 2nd round. I’m not 100% sure about the affiliations of the potential winning parties, but I believe that it would be Ens+1 RN+1 and LR+1. Moerani Frébault is already elected in 1st constituency as he polled 53.85% and was over 25% of the registered electors. 2nd: Nicole Sanquer 49.07% Steve Chailloux 42.18% 2rd: Mereana Reid Arbelot 42.71% Pascale Haiti (partner of former Polynesie president Gaston Flosse) 41.08%
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andrea
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Post by andrea on Jun 30, 2024 10:39:41 GMT
Nouvelle Calédonie
All 8 polling stations in Houaïlou didn't open. Rioters were blocking the access to the town hall. "A vehicle stolen from the Poro mining centre had been used as a "battering ram" against the gendarmerie barracks at 11am local time on Sunday."
Turnout is on the raise of the rest of the island, with big queues. Over 20 points more than in 2022
Counting underway now
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Post by Arthur Figgis on Jun 30, 2024 11:19:22 GMT
Driving 640 miles in France today, but most of that is motorway so won’t pick up much evidence of an election.
Started in Molines-en-Queyras, in Haute-Alpes near the Italian border, and picked up the motorway near Grenoble, going to Calais. I saw two FN (not RN) posters near Briançon, and a sign for a polling station somewhere in Isère. And that’s it.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jun 30, 2024 11:31:54 GMT
Driving 640 miles in France today, but most of that is motorway so won’t pick up much evidence of an election. Started in Molines-en-Queyras, in Haute-Alpes near the Italian border, and picked up the motorway near Grenoble, going to Calais. I saw two FN (not RN) posters near Briançon, and a sign for a polling station somewhere in Isère. And that’s it. Lots of RN posters in Lorraine last week.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jun 30, 2024 11:33:30 GMT
Turnout at noon was apparently 25.9 per cent, compared to 18.43 in 2022.
This is the highest such figure since the early Eighties according to the man from Ipsos.
Edit: some further details. Turnout up in all departments.
Lowest increases: 0.75 percentage points in Indre-et-Loire, 0.97 in Jura, 1.36 in Côte d'Or. Highest increases: 13.86 in Bouches-du-Rhone, 13.22 in Paris, 11.68 in Creuse.
Some intriguing figures there.
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European Lefty
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Can be bribed with salted liquorice
Posts: 6,054
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Post by European Lefty on Jun 30, 2024 11:36:38 GMT
Assuming this works, I have mapped out relique's predictions. yapms.com/app?m=kyw2z16nxi0q62eI had to take educated guesses at a couple of the affiliations, and one or two errors are more than likely
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Post by mrpastelito on Jun 30, 2024 11:38:27 GMT
Sterling work.
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Post by rcronald on Jun 30, 2024 11:45:12 GMT
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jun 30, 2024 11:56:44 GMT
Finistere sticks out amongst the Breton departments.
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andrea
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Post by andrea on Jun 30, 2024 12:15:34 GMT
Nouvelle-Calédonie 1: Nicolas Metzdorf (Loyalists, sitting MP for the 2nd constituency) 39.7% Omayra Naisseline (independentists) 36.3% Philippe Dunoyer (sitting MP, Horizons) 10.3%, Veylma Falaeo (LEO, the party of the Wallisian community) 4.9% Loueckhote (RN) 4,6 % Nouvelle-Calédonie 2: Tjibaou (independentists) 44.04% Ponga (Loyalists) 36.17% Tukumuli (LEO, the party of the Wallisian community) 11.94% Poadjia (Horizons) 5.28% Voudjo 1.49% Frère 1.08%
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Post by relique on Jun 30, 2024 12:32:59 GMT
It looks like NPF is favoured to lose all of the 3 French Polynesia seats to a regionalist list that unites the right and centre in the 2nd round. I’m not 100% sure about the affiliations of the potential winning parties, but I believe that it would be Ens+1 RN+1 and LR+1. Not really. Historically, independists tend to not vote on the first round. I'd they are Big favorites in the third and should also tip the second. But indeed they lost the first because of a good participation from the autonomists. They should go with ENS
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Post by rcronald on Jun 30, 2024 12:36:31 GMT
It looks like NPF is favoured to lose all of the 3 French Polynesia seats to a regionalist list that unites the right and centre in the 2nd round. I’m not 100% sure about the affiliations of the potential winning parties, but I believe that it would be Ens+1 RN+1 and LR+1. Not really. Historically, independists tend to not vote on the first round. I'd they are Big favorites in the third and should also tip the second. But indeed they lost the first because of a good participation from the autonomists. They should go with ENS Why are they only voting in the 2nd round? Seems like a really strange habit.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jun 30, 2024 12:47:14 GMT
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Post by finsobruce on Jun 30, 2024 12:51:26 GMT
Finistere sticks out amongst the Breton departments. I mean its not as though its the end of the world is it?
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jun 30, 2024 13:50:49 GMT
Finistere sticks out amongst the Breton departments. I mean its not as though its the end of the world is it? Sadly its prefecture is not Saint Etienne.
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