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Post by manchesterman on Jun 21, 2024 13:57:21 GMT
Range:
Con 43 - 265
Lab 303 -478
SNP 5 - 33
LD 17 - 67
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peterl
Green
Congratulations President Trump
Posts: 8,473 
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Post by peterl on Jun 21, 2024 14:01:02 GMT
Based on this table, the mean average predicted seats per party (rounded) is: Labour 314, Conservative 126, Lib Dem 33, SNP 16.
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Post by manchesterman on Jun 21, 2024 14:05:40 GMT
Based on this table, the mean average predicted seats per party (rounded) is: Labour 314, Conservative 126, Lib Dem 33, SNP 16. Are you sure about that Labour figure?  |
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peterl
Green
Congratulations President Trump
Posts: 8,473
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Post by peterl on Jun 21, 2024 14:08:24 GMT
Based on this table, the mean average predicted seats per party (rounded) is: Labour 314, Conservative 126, Lib Dem 33, SNP 16. Are you sure about that Labour figure? The predictions add up to 8,791 divided by 28 predictions is 313.96, rounded to 314. It looks low, but that is the average. |
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polupolu
Lib Dem
Liberal (Democrat). Socially Liberal, Economically Keynesian.
Posts: 1,261
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Post by polupolu on Jun 21, 2024 14:18:08 GMT
Are you sure about that Labour figure? The predictions add up to 8,791 divided by 28 predictions is 313.96, rounded to 314. It looks low, but that is the average. I think you may have made a mistake somewhere in your calculations as there is only one Lab number below 354 |
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polupolu
Lib Dem
Liberal (Democrat). Socially Liberal, Economically Keynesian.
Posts: 1,261
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Post by polupolu on Jun 21, 2024 14:23:55 GMT
My quick calculation on the most recent guesses (and I may be wrong as I haven't looked too carefully at which ones to exclude) give
Mean (rounded)
Con 152
Lab 407
SNP 22
LD 45
Median
Con 165
Lab 401
SNP 23
LD 47
I would suggest the Median is probably more representative than the mean of the "combined wisdom" of those taking part, even if neither add up to the number being contested
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Post by islington on Jun 21, 2024 14:44:38 GMT
The predictions add up to 8,791 divided by 28 predictions is 313.96, rounded to 314. It looks low, but that is the average. I think you may have made a mistake somewhere in your calculations as there is only one Lab number below 354 By my count, Labour predictions sum to 10978 (taking only the most recent where a poster has more than one). Divided by 27 (not 28) this comes out at 406.59. |
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Jun 21, 2024 15:06:28 GMT
Please note the prediction of swingometer has not been accepted into the competition as it is too incomplete. 26 entries have been accepted. |
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Post by johnloony on Jun 21, 2024 16:09:01 GMT
Are you sure about that Labour figure? The predictions add up to 8,791 divided by 28 predictions is 313.96, rounded to 314. It looks low, but that is the average. Has @weld been giving you maths lessons? |
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peterl
Green
Congratulations President Trump
Posts: 8,473
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Post by peterl on Jun 21, 2024 16:16:51 GMT
The predictions add up to 8,791 divided by 28 predictions is 313.96, rounded to 314. It looks low, but that is the average. Has @weld been giving you maths lessons? Maths was never my strong point. Though I did include each prediction where people have made multiple entries, so that could explain it. |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Jun 21, 2024 17:24:25 GMT
The predictions add up to 8,791 divided by 28 predictions is 313.96, rounded to 314. It looks low, but that is the average. Has @weld been giving you maths lessons? Touche |
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Post by batman on Jun 21, 2024 21:28:50 GMT
Has @weld been giving you maths lessons? Touche he received maths lessons from the former Tory MP for Reigate? Who knew? |
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xenon
Forum Regular
Posts: 426
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Post by xenon on Jun 21, 2024 21:55:57 GMT
Labour 442
Conservatives 112
Liberal Democrats 48
SNP 17
Plaid Cymru 4
Green Party 3
Reform UK 3
Workers Party 1
Independent 1 (SDP and any others which I've missed are 0)
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Post by batman on Jun 23, 2024 8:32:05 GMT
Here is my provisional forecast
Conservatives 135
Labour 407
Liberal Democrats 65
SNP 12
Plaid Cymru 3
Green Party 4
Reform UK 3
Workers Party 1
SDP 0
Others 1
FWIW here are my predictions for Northern Ireland : Sinn Fein 7 DUP 5 Alliance 3 SDLP 2 UUP 1
I am happy to discuss on any relevant thread my reasons for my predictions seat by seat, which is how I've calculated it. I don't want to spam the General Election thread with endless individual predictions
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Jun 23, 2024 10:22:42 GMT
What Canada 1993 would look like here
Labour 480
Lib Dems 100
Reform 20
SNP 15
Independents 10
Greens 4
PC 2
CON 2
OTH 17
I think the two Tory seats would be Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk (John Lamont) and Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale & Tweeddale (David Mundell).
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Jun 23, 2024 11:50:18 GMT
What Canada 1993 would look like here Labour 480 Lib Dems 100 Reform 20 SNP 15 Independents 10 Greens 4 CON 2 OTH 19 I think the two Tory seats would be Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk (John Lamont) and Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale & Tweeddale (David Mundell).
No Plaid?
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Jun 23, 2024 11:52:09 GMT
What Canada 1993 would look like here Labour 480 Lib Dems 100 Reform 20 SNP 15 Independents 10 Greens 4 CON 2 OTH 19 I think the two Tory seats would be Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk (John Lamont) and Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale & Tweeddale (David Mundell).
No Plaid?
Updated. |
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Jun 23, 2024 12:06:12 GMT
So which main stream parties win in Northern Ireland now?
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Jun 23, 2024 12:07:39 GMT
So which main stream parties win in Northern Ireland now?
None. Although FWIW, the APNI are effectively the NI Lib Dems (but I don't treat them as LDs in this forecast). |
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,902
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Post by Tony Otim on Jun 23, 2024 12:38:17 GMT
So which main stream parties win in Northern Ireland now?
None. Although FWIW, the APNI are effectively the NI Lib Dems (but I don't treat them as LDs in this forecast). I think the point is that you only have 17 others adding up to 650 in total with 18 NI and the Speaker to include in those others, so mathematically at least 2 NI must be covered by the seats counted elsewhere in your prediction, more if you're still backing Corbyn or other indies to win... |
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