General Election 2024 Total Seats Prediction Competition.

[norflondon]

Keith Vaz winning in Leicester has to be one of the silliest prediction ever!

[batman]

I don't necessarily agree. It is just conceivable in the event of the vote being really split down the middle. However, I don't think it's that likely. Vaz was generally a hardworking MP & still probably has quite a decent profile in some communities, even though we all know that he's a wrong 'un. I'm sure he will do better than Claudia Webbe.

[peterl]

My previous prediction seems too optimistic for the Tories at this point, so I'm revising again:

Conservatives 96
Labour 478
SNP 15
Liberal Democrats 54
Plaid Cymru 2
Green 2
Reform 1
Workers Party 1
SDP 0
OTHERS 1 (Corbyn)

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

Update: I have a new computer, but I won't be updating anything on it until tomorrow at the earliest. Will confirm when all 🔮 prefictions have been processed.

Today, as yesterday was, is being taken up with a new fire escape being installed at a property my sister owned. Not cheap but needed as the previous one was rusting away after 60 to 70 years of use.

[johnloony]

Revised prediction

Conservatives 168
Labour 401
SNP 21
Liberal Democrats 37
Plaid Cymru 2
Green 1
Reform 1
Workers Party 0
SDP 0
OTHERS 0

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

All 24 Entries have now been updated on the competition spreadsheet.

[yellowfox]

Labour - 303
Conservative - 265
Lib Dem - 50
SNP - 5
Plaid - 3
Reform - 3
Green - 2

May change before polling day

[Arthur Figgis]

Total seats prediction: 650.

[cathyc]

Jun 20, 2024 18:30:40 GMT Arthur Figgis said:

Total seats prediction: 650.

Is that based on insider information?

[Arthur Figgis]

Jun 20, 2024 18:39:32 GMT cathyc said:

Jun 20, 2024 18:30:40 GMT Arthur Figgis said:

Total seats prediction: 650.

Is that based on insider information?

I have my sauces.

[norflondon]

Likely to be accurate, although it's possible, though unlikely, that a candidate who receives the most votes dies before 4.7.24, so they are not elected and the election in that seat is re-run, reducing the number of seats from 650.

[batman]

It has happened but not for a very long time. Famously 2 Conservative MPs died between the close of poll & the counting of the votes in the 1945 general election, Sir Edward Campbell (Bromley) and Leslie Pym (Monmouth). The respective by-elections were won by very high-profile defeated Tories, Harold Macmillan in the former & Peter Thorneycroft in the latter. Thorneycroft was eventually to lose the seat in 1966.

[clive]

Jun 20, 2024 18:30:40 GMT Arthur Figgis said:

Total seats prediction: 650.

Hypothetically does that include Sein fein because you could argue it should not..........

[Arthur Figgis]

Jun 20, 2024 22:03:59 GMT clive said:

Jun 20, 2024 18:30:40 GMT Arthur Figgis said:

Total seats prediction: 650.

Hypothetically does that include Sein fein because you could argue it should not..........

They have seats. They choose to prefer commemorating murderers to actually doing anything productive with those seats. But they (sadly) have those seats.

(As a UUP member I say vote Diana Armstrong)

[nyx]

Jun 20, 2024 19:29:26 GMT norflondon said:

Likely to be accurate, although it's possible, though unlikely, that a candidate who receives the most votes dies before 4.7.24, so they are not elected and the election in that seat is re-run, reducing the number of seats from 650.

Does not have to be the candidate with the most votes. See Thirsk and Malton, 2010.

[aslaw]

Cons. 133
Labour. 407
SNP. 24
LibDem. 58
Green. 2
Plain C. 4
Reform. 3
W.P. 1
SDP. 0
Others. 1

Here’s hoping!

[aslaw]

Plain should read Plaid!

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

26 entries accepted into the competition.




As a side note, it's a good thing that I bought the new computer last week and got the Computer Shop to transfer everything across immediately, because the old beast I was using now has a windows loading error, which I can't get round, so it is as much use now as dead as an asphyxiated Dodo. Timing worked out just right. 

[norflondon]

Will you display here the predictions of all in a easy view format?

[nyx]

Here's an unofficial summary of the predictions so far, regardless of adherence to contest rules etc (I only put the four biggest parties in because I'm lazy)
Included all revisions because it's interesting to see how people's predictions change over time.

	Con	Lab	SNP	LD
Pete Whitehead	175	414	11	27
peterl	145 136 96	419 426 478	15 15 15	48 49 54
islington	175	405	30	17
jm	198	368	24	38
norflondon	169	398	18	42
Old Fashioned Leftie	179	390	24	45
greenhert	180 165	380 381	20 26	43 52
swingometer	170	385
uthacalthing	180 86	400 468	15 22	34 48
haroldthepolitician	135	421	18	50
johnloony	215 168	360 401	23 21	30 37
Sg1	201	374	17	35
doktorb🏳️‍🌈🏳️‍⚧️	152	414	33	30
PeopleLikeWe	169	398	17	44
redwombat	174	370	19	60
jamesdoyle	92 73	448 459	25 25	61 67
flagman	195	371	18	41
thirdchill	142	400	28	52
kevinf	160	385	27	46
binky	221	354	31	19
beesknees	70	470	28	50
sonofkrautrock	139	402	27	57
nyx	43	476	30	61
polupolu	150	441	20	30
ricmk	105	445	12	62
yellowfox	265	303	5	50
aslaw	133	407	24	58