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Post by kevinf on Jun 12, 2024 18:37:06 GMT
I won't enter the competition until the week of polling day I’m sure a lot of us will be updating then! Con 160 Lab 385 SNP 27 LD 46 PC 4 Green 2 Reform 4 WP 1 SDP 0 Others 2 (Islington N, Dewsbury & Batley just FYI) |
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binky
Non-Aligned
Posts: 63
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Post by binky on Jun 15, 2024 21:40:04 GMT
Conservatives 221
Labour 354
SNP 31
Liberal Democrats 19
Plaid Cymru 3
Green 1
Reform 1
Workers Party 0
SDP 0
OTHERS 1 (Corbyn)
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nodealbrexiteer
Forum Regular
non aligned favour no deal brexit!
Posts: 4,447
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on Jun 17, 2024 19:05:01 GMT
Conservatives 221 Labour 354 SNP 31 Liberal Democrats 19 Plaid Cymru 3 Green 1 Reform 1 Workers Party 0 SDP 0 OTHERS 1 (Corbyn) close to my current guess! |
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Post by beesknees on Jun 17, 2024 19:13:54 GMT
Con 70
Lab 470
SNP 28
LD 50
PC 4
Green 3
Reform 5
WP 0
SDP 0
Others 1
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batman
Labour
Posts: 12,368 
Member is Online
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Post by batman on Jun 17, 2024 21:09:56 GMT
I think some people here are taking too much of a cue from some of the crappier MRPs. If Labour gets that huge a number of seats the SNP will not get 28. I haven't done my forecast yet but I know that I will be forecasting a low fewer than that for the SNP. And almost certainly Labour too. Nor will Plaid manage 4 seats on these new boundaries IMHO.
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Post by norflondon on Jun 17, 2024 21:58:00 GMT
significant amounts of voters don't trust Labour, barely surprising given the hatful of broken pledges and ofc the depraved behaviour towards members on the Left wing of the party since 2020.
Labour will ofc get a nice majority but total votes for them, and turnout too, will have a distinctly odd look.
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Post by sonofkrautrock on Jun 17, 2024 22:13:30 GMT
Lab 402
Cons 139
Lib Dems 57
SNP 27
Plaid 2
Other 2 (Zadrozny, Corbyn)
Farage
Galloway
A huge number of those Cons and Lib Dems would have tiny margins.
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nyx
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,028
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Post by nyx on Jun 17, 2024 22:59:15 GMT
Gonna stick my neck out and go against the grain a bit, the recent Redfield and Wilton mega-poll is slowly convincing me that maybe the sub-20% predictions aren't outliers
Conservatives 43
Labour 476
SNP 30
Liberal Democrats 61
Plaid Cymru 4
Green 4
Reform 6
Workers Party 1
SDP 0
OTHERS 6
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Post by norflondon on Jun 17, 2024 23:07:30 GMT
Booooooooommmmm!!!!
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Post by beesknee5 on Jun 18, 2024 8:50:37 GMT
There is a tipping point where FPTP is not your friend. Tories are right on the edge imo.
Currently I see nothing that's going to improve their chances which is why I've gone pessimistic for them.
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batman
Labour
Posts: 12,368
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Post by batman on Jun 18, 2024 9:13:23 GMT
I'll say it again. A world in which Labour wins 476 seats & the SNP still holds 30 just isn't feasible. Although Scotland doesn't behave exactly the same as England, it's inconceivable that Labour is totally dominant in England but totally dominated in Scotland.
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Post by manchesterman on Jun 18, 2024 9:19:25 GMT
Agree, but nevertheless its just a prediction game and nyx can believe that Scotland and England voters will behave significantly differently and thus rationalise his prediction  |
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polupolu
Lib Dem
Liberal (Democrat). Socially Liberal, Economically Keynesian.
Posts: 1,261
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Post by polupolu on Jun 18, 2024 10:06:04 GMT
We are in completely uncharted territory. This means all my instincts, having watched elections closely since 1979, will probably be completely wrong.
If my past experience is anything near to being a guide, however...
Con 150
Lab 441
SNP 20
LibDem 30
PC 4
Green 1
Reform 3
WP 0
SDP 0
OTHERS 0
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Clark
Forum Regular
Posts: 744
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Post by Clark on Jun 18, 2024 10:29:30 GMT
I predict there will be a record amount of MP's elected on <40% of the vote.
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Post by islington on Jun 18, 2024 11:09:22 GMT
I'll say it again. A world in which Labour wins 476 seats & the SNP still holds 30 just isn't feasible. Although Scotland doesn't behave exactly the same as England, it's inconceivable that Labour is totally dominant in England but totally dominated in Scotland. Why?
The Tories managed it fine. |
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nyx
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,028
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Post by nyx on Jun 18, 2024 11:22:26 GMT
I'll say it again. A world in which Labour wins 476 seats & the SNP still holds 30 just isn't feasible. Although Scotland doesn't behave exactly the same as England, it's inconceivable that Labour is totally dominant in England but totally dominated in Scotland. Scotland often behaves independently of England so I wasn't really considering any correlation, but looking at the polling- you may be right, I'll consider whether to revise that figure closer to the election. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,889
Member is Online
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Post by The Bishop on Jun 18, 2024 11:44:13 GMT
I'll say it again. A world in which Labour wins 476 seats & the SNP still holds 30 just isn't feasible. Although Scotland doesn't behave exactly the same as England, it's inconceivable that Labour is totally dominant in England but totally dominated in Scotland. Why? The Tories managed it fine. Labour are not the Tories, prior to 2015 they were the dominant party in Scotland for all but a few of the previous 70 years. |
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Post by islington on Jun 18, 2024 12:11:06 GMT
Why? The Tories managed it fine. Labour are not the Tories, prior to 2015 they were the dominant party in Scotland for all but a few of the previous 70 years. Sorry, it was a flippant comment, I didn't mean to be taken seriously. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,889
Member is Online
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Post by The Bishop on Jun 18, 2024 12:12:53 GMT
There are times when it is genuinely hard to tell. Though that is one of the reasons why smileys exist |
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ricmk
Lib Dem
Posts: 2,615
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Post by ricmk on Jun 18, 2024 12:25:16 GMT
No idea really but now the Tories have played the pity/desperation card I don't see anything else that they have left, and nothing seems to be turning the dial. So I'm thinking (hoping) something like:
Lab 445
Cons 105
Lib Dems 62
SNP 12
Plaid 3
Green 2
Reform 1
Ind 1 (Vaz - but covers Corbyn as well who may make it)
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