peterl
Green
Congratulations President Trump
Posts: 8,468 
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Post by peterl on Jun 3, 2024 16:08:39 GMT
I would like to revise my prediction. I think Nigel Farage has a reasonable chance of being elected in the current climate, and additionally that Farage having a higher presence in Reform will lead to more vote splitting. My new prediction is therefore:
Conservatives 136
Labour 426
SNP 15
Liberal Democrats 49
Plaid Cymru 2
Green 1
Reform 1
Workers Party 1
SDP 0
OTHERS 0
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Post by froome on Jun 3, 2024 16:16:35 GMT
Tony Blair had a line after 1997, something like, 'At some point the public decide, and they're not voting for logic, they're a mob looking for revenge.' That's what's happening. And it will only get worse for the Cons. They can't do anything. Sunak can't do anything. They are done. This is spot on. The public had decided after 40 days of Trussanomics and Sunak has been a hiding for nothing ever since. He managed to steady the ship, but the poll ratings didn't respond, and he is now floundering. At this point there are very few percentage points for the Conservatives between a 3 digit outcome that would be seen as respectable and close to extinction while being outpolled on all flanks. And just a few hours later, today's polls back this up. |
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Post by uthacalthing on Jun 3, 2024 16:56:11 GMT
Having woken up in the middle of night, I needed something to do and looking for value bets in the seat share betting, I wondered what the accumulated wisdom of the well-informed and redoubtable community here is. I make it 13 predictions thus far: Con 2222 Lab 5168 LD 494 Average prediction: Con 170 Lab 398 LD 38 Which is very close to my own (and @peoplelikewe ): 169/398/42. Conservative 180 Labour 400 SNP 15 Lib Dem 34 PC 2 Green 0 WPB 0 Others 0 Reform 0 SDP 0 anybody else I have forgotten 0 |
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Post by uthacalthing on Jun 4, 2024 6:29:56 GMT
Looking at my prediction and noting that it is very close to several other predictions it becomes obvious that the window whereby I could win this contest is very narrow indeed. As such, although it is still my prediction for the purposes of all other threads I really need to put in a more outlandish competition entry and hope for an outlandish result.
And obviously, I would gladly sacrifice the careers of 100 Conservative MPs to win this competition.
So I shall predict the extinction event and ask that it be accepted as my entry
Conservative 86
Labour 468
SNP 22 whereby the losses to Labour are balanced by the wipe out of Scottish Tories
Lib Dem 48
PC 2
Green 1
WPB 1
Others 0
Reform 3
SDP 0
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Post by jamesdoyle on Jun 4, 2024 19:15:50 GMT
I can't believe that my guess might actually be too favourable for the Tories...
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Post by jamesdoyle on Jun 11, 2024 10:53:21 GMT
I am revising my prediction. Conservatives 73 (-19) Labour 459 (+11) SNP 25 (-) Liberal Democrats 67 (+6) Plaid Cymru 3 (-) Green 3 (+1) Reform 0 (-) Workers Party 1 (+1) SDP 0 (-) Others 0 (-) ETA: Defenestrated Fipplebox |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,889
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Post by The Bishop on Jun 11, 2024 12:21:01 GMT
You expect that Galloway will win? I think that the new Dewsbury/Batley seat is Labour's likeliest loss on that front - plus Corbyn of course.
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peterl
Green
Congratulations President Trump
Posts: 8,468
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Post by peterl on Jun 11, 2024 12:39:44 GMT
Where's the third Green win?
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Post by jamesdoyle on Jun 11, 2024 13:13:59 GMT
You expect that Galloway will win? I think that the new Dewsbury/Batley seat is Labour's likeliest loss on that front - plus Corbyn of course. 'Expect' is a strong word. As with my first prediction, I'm deliberately not going for the peak of the bell curve, but somewhere off to the low (for the Cons) side of it. So this is a 'possible verging on likely', not a 'probable' scenario. I've seen a bit to suggest that Galloway has a chance, so that makes it worth a stretch. Where's the third Green win? See above; but also the way the Cons are going, I think there's a decent (but still less than 50%) chance in each of the targets for taking directly from the Cons. So I feel it's also worth a stretch here. |
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Post by batman on Jun 11, 2024 14:12:09 GMT
Where's the third Green win? North Herefordshire is my guess. |
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Post by batman on Jun 11, 2024 14:13:46 GMT
In general I think the only way any of us is going to get close here is to forecast each seat individually & tot them up. A generalised guess is less likely to bring home the bacon, or in my case the salt beef.
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Post by thirdchill on Jun 11, 2024 14:35:15 GMT
Defenestrated Fipplebox my prediction: Seats: 631 Lab: 400 Con: 142 LD: 52 SNP: 28 PC: 3 Green: 2 Reform: 2 Workers Party: 1 SDP: 0 Others: 1 Had considered having the conservatives lower (close to 100 or even slightly lower) but think the following factors may push them up to a merely terrible performance rather than wipeout: 1) Polls showing labour landslides by ridiculous margins (which incidentally labour aren't pushing and definitely find unhelpful) may push some undecideds (con/don't know waverers) who don't want this to vote Con, it may push some seats back into the Con column. Also it may make some labour waverers complacent and feel they can vote for another left wing option safe in the knowledge labour will win. 2) In some Con seats where the Lib Dems are 2nd, people who don't pay that much attention to politics and tactical voting may well give increased support to labour in these seats instead of voting lib dem. This happened in a few seats in 1997 where the lib dems had near misses. 3) Differential turnout between age groups. The older age groups will probably vote at a higher rate relative to younger voters, compared to what polling is telling us (polling always seems to overestimate turnout among young voters and the weighting of quite a few pollsters doesn't take enough account of this). Due to the smaller gap between con and lab in the older age groups, this should push up the Con seat numbers a little. I also think the SNP will do better than expected due to point 1 with the polling, nationalists who are not enthusiastic about the SNP currently may well decide to back them.
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Post by greenhert on Jun 11, 2024 19:00:04 GMT
For the 631 seats not including NI seats and the Speaker's seat of Chorley: Labour 380 Conservative 180 Liberal Democrats 43 SNP 20 Plaid Cymru 4 Green 1 Workers Party 1 Ashfield Independents 1 Independent 1 Reform UK 0 Others 0 Having revised my election predictions by looking at each constituency individually, here is my new prediction for the 631 British seats (Speaker's seat of Chorley is excluded): Labour 381 Conservative 165 Liberal Democrats 52 SNP 26 Plaid Cymru 3 Green 2 Reform 0 SDP 0 Others 2 |
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Jun 11, 2024 19:48:19 GMT
There will be a delay in my acknowledging further entries, this is because it is very likely that my laptop needs to visit the computer hospital.
The competition will still run.
Hopefully it will be an easy fix and I can use the spreadsheet already created. If not I have a decade old desktop I can use, if I don't end up buying a new laptop quickly.
Bloody annoying as its happened just a few days before i planned to backed the laptop up, and I was planning to buy a new one in the next few weeks.
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Jun 12, 2024 6:41:03 GMT
For the 631 seats not including NI seats and the Speaker's seat of Chorley: Labour 380 Conservative 180 Liberal Democrats 43 SNP 20 Plaid Cymru 4 Green 1 Workers Party 1 Ashfield Independents 1 Independent 1 Reform UK 0 Others 0 Having revised my election predictions by looking at each constituency individually, here is my new prediction for the 631 British seats (Speaker's seat of Chorley is excluded): Labour 381 Conservative 165 Liberal Democrats 52 SNP 26 Plaid Cymru 3 Green 2 Reform 0 SDP 0 Others 2
As my laptop has booted up today, I'm feeling generous and overlook the lack of Workers Party being typed, I will assume 0 seats here.
Todays's plan.
Back up computer, buy a new one, get everything set up by them and transferred, they'll need my laptop to do it. So it may be a day or two before I acknowledge further entries.
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Post by batman on Jun 12, 2024 7:39:01 GMT
I won't enter the competition until the week of polling day
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Post by yellowperil on Jun 12, 2024 7:53:07 GMT
I won't enter the competition until the week of polling day I won't enter the competition until the week after polling day |
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Post by noorderling on Jun 12, 2024 8:05:01 GMT
I won't enter the competition until the week of polling day I won't enter the competition until the week after polling day Lib Dems Winning Here |
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Post by carlton43 on Jun 12, 2024 9:37:09 GMT
Having revised my election predictions by looking at each constituency individually, here is my new prediction for the 631 British seats (Speaker's seat of Chorley is excluded): Labour 381 Conservative 165 Liberal Democrats 52 SNP 26 Plaid Cymru 3 Green 2 Reform 0 SDP 0 Others 2
As my laptop has booted up today, I'm feeling generous and overlook the lack of Workers Party being typed, I will assume 0 seats here.
Todays's plan.
Back up computer, buy a new one, get everything set up by them and transferred, they'll need my laptop to do it. So it may be a day or two before I acknowledge further entries.
Very glad to hear it. I have just acquired an Apple iPad as a backup and a convenience for when in bed or in front of the TV on election night. |
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Post by carlton43 on Jun 12, 2024 10:00:45 GMT
I won't enter the competition until the week of polling day I won't enter the competition until the week after polling day 'The Duke of Plaza Toro led his troops from behind : He found it less exciting'. |
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