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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Jun 1, 2024 14:41:58 GMT
Oh go on then -for a laugh Conservatives 92 Labour 448 SNP 25 Liberal Democrats 61 Plaid Cymru 3 Green 2 Reform 0 Workers Party 0 SDP 0 Others 0 James! That is not funny at all.
I disagree, in fact it's almost NoToryiously funny.
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Post by jamesdoyle on Jun 1, 2024 14:43:01 GMT
Oh go on then -for a laugh Conservatives 92 Labour 448 SNP 25 Liberal Democrats 61 Plaid Cymru 3 Green 2 Reform 0 Workers Party 0 SDP 0 Others 0 James! That is not funny at all. It is at the optimistic (for non-Cons) end of things, but although it's not the highest probability, it's certain a possible scale of outcome. I think the level of feeling is comparable to 1997, if not more so, and if the LibDem targeting and resources are right, it could come off. And of course, we're all looking forward to tonight's well-trailed Opinium poll - aren't we? |
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Post by johnloony on Jun 1, 2024 15:30:19 GMT
Be gentle if I have done something wrong. This is my first ever post. Conservatives 174 Labour 370 SNP 19 Lib Dems 60 Plaid Cymru 4 Green 2 Reform 0 Workers Party 0 SDP 0 Others 2 Prediction Accepted along with the 13 other predictions posted. If a prediction is 'liked' by me, it has been accepted.
You don’t appear to have ‘liked’ my prediction yet (at the bottom of page 3) |
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Jun 1, 2024 15:33:39 GMT
Prediction Accepted along with the 13 other predictions posted. If a prediction is 'liked' by me, it has been accepted.
You don’t appear to have ‘liked’ my prediction yet (at the bottom of page 3) Oversight corrected. |
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nodealbrexiteer
Forum Regular
non aligned favour no deal brexit!
Posts: 4,447
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on Jun 1, 2024 15:49:28 GMT
Depending on partisanship i've been taken by the what feels very optimistic and pessimistic forecasts,starting to think maybe the polls wont narrow as much as some of us believed
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Post by froome on Jun 1, 2024 18:41:23 GMT
James! That is not funny at all. I disagree, in fact it's almost NoToryiously funny.
That's very good. But I'm never sure whether you should laugh out loud at a tyrant's joke or fear what they might do next.  |
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Post by jamesdoyle on Jun 1, 2024 19:53:38 GMT
Oh go on then -for a laugh Conservatives 92 Labour 448 SNP 25 Liberal Democrats 61 Plaid Cymru 3 Green 2 Reform 0 Workers Party 0 SDP 0 Others 0 Now we've had Opinium. It's happening. |
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Post by batman on Jun 1, 2024 20:22:30 GMT
well you know the usual caveats James. It's only one poll. But the polls are really not encouraging for the Tories. I really don't think that, by & large, people are taking any notice of them, or finding them credible if they are. The only one to give them a very slight sliver of hope was the J L Partners one.
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Post by jamesdoyle on Jun 1, 2024 20:26:00 GMT
well you know the usual caveats James. It's only one poll. But the polls are really not encouraging for the Tories. I really don't think that, by & large, people are taking any notice of them, or finding them credible if they are. The only one to give them a very slight sliver of hope was the J L Partners one. Tony Blair had a line after 1997, something like, 'At some point the public decide, and they're not voting for logic, they're a mob looking for revenge.' That's what's happening. And it will only get worse for the Cons. They can't do anything. Sunak can't do anything. They are done. |
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Post by batman on Jun 1, 2024 20:38:17 GMT
Not sure it actually gets worse at this point. Probably the polls will stay fairly stable between now & polling day. Maybe a slight Tory improvement, but nothing of serious consequence; quite possibly they will enjoy no improvement at all.
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Post by uthacalthing on Jun 1, 2024 20:49:23 GMT
As a spectator, an extinction-level event has a certain appeal
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Post by johnloony on Jun 1, 2024 20:53:55 GMT
well you know the usual caveats James. It's only one poll. But the polls are really not encouraging for the Tories. I really don't think that, by & large, people are taking any notice of them, or finding them credible if they are. The only one to give them a very slight sliver of hope was the J L Partners one. Tony Blair had a line after 1997, something like, 'At some point the public decide, and they're not voting for logic, they're a mob looking for revenge.' That's what's happening. And it will only get worse for the Cons. They can't do anything. Sunak can't do anything. They are done. If, by some miracle, the Conservative Party does win the election, everybody (including everybody in the Conservative Party) will groan, think “here we go again” and the next 4 or 5 years will be like another extended version of the drift, chaos, and wasted opportunities of the last 4 years. Oh, and the Conservative Party will quickly dump Rishi Sunak as leader very soon after the election - even if we win. |
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Post by norflondon on Jun 3, 2024 2:06:52 GMT
Having woken up in the middle of night, I needed something to do and looking for value bets in the seat share betting, I wondered what the accumulated wisdom of the well-informed and redoubtable community here is.
I make it 13 predictions thus far:
Con 2222
Lab 5168
LD 494
Average prediction:
Con 170
Lab 398
LD 38
Which is very close to my own (and @peoplelikewe ): 169/398/42.
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Post by froome on Jun 3, 2024 4:09:07 GMT
well you know the usual caveats James. It's only one poll. But the polls are really not encouraging for the Tories. I really don't think that, by & large, people are taking any notice of them, or finding them credible if they are. The only one to give them a very slight sliver of hope was the J L Partners one. Tony Blair had a line after 1997, something like, 'At some point the public decide, and they're not voting for logic, they're a mob looking for revenge.' That's what's happening. And it will only get worse for the Cons. They can't do anything. Sunak can't do anything. They are done. This is spot on. The public had decided after 40 days of Trussanomics and Sunak has been a hiding for nothing ever since. He managed to steady the ship, but the poll ratings didn't respond, and he is now floundering. At this point there are very few percentage points for the Conservatives between a 3 digit outcome that would be seen as respectable and close to extinction while being outpolled on all flanks. |
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Post by flagman on Jun 3, 2024 5:22:06 GMT
Conservatives 195
Labour 371
SNP 18
Lib Dems 41
Plaid Cymru 1
Green 2
Reform 0
Workers Party 0
SDP 0
Others 2
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Post by johnloony on Jun 3, 2024 8:17:04 GMT
Tony Blair had a line after 1997, something like, 'At some point the public decide, and they're not voting for logic, they're a mob looking for revenge.' That's what's happening. And it will only get worse for the Cons. They can't do anything. Sunak can't do anything. They are done. This is spot on. The public had decided after 40 days of Trussanomics and Sunak has been a hiding for nothing ever since. He managed to steady the ship, but the poll ratings didn't respond, and he is now floundering. At this point there are very few percentage points for the Conservatives between a 3 digit outcome that would be seen as respectable and close to extinction while being outpolled on all flanks. I think that if the general election had been called for only a few weeks later, or if the National Service policy had been announced a few weeks earlier, the letters would have gone in and the knives would be out. It was only the dissolution which prevented Sunak from being toppled by a parliamentary coup. |
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Post by norflondon on Jun 3, 2024 8:53:24 GMT
Shat on by the Tories, shovelled up by Labour, it'll make little difference, one conservative party replaced by t'other. Except perhaps Rejoin will happen more rapidly under Labour.
And, I fear, increased privatisation and charging in the NHS. And very likely, even more (!!!) mass immigration.
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carlton43
Reform Party
Posts: 50,878 
Member is Online
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Post by carlton43 on Jun 3, 2024 9:22:12 GMT
This is spot on. The public had decided after 40 days of Trussanomics and Sunak has been a hiding for nothing ever since. He managed to steady the ship, but the poll ratings didn't respond, and he is now floundering. At this point there are very few percentage points for the Conservatives between a 3 digit outcome that would be seen as respectable and close to extinction while being outpolled on all flanks. I think that if the general election had been called for only a few weeks later, or if the National Service policy had been announced a few weeks earlier, the letters would have gone in and the knives would be out. It was only the dissolution which prevented Sunak from being toppled by a parliamentary coup. I don't think so. Even now I doubt enough of them are quite that crassly stupid. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,889
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Post by The Bishop on Jun 3, 2024 10:55:56 GMT
Tony Blair had a line after 1997, something like, 'At some point the public decide, and they're not voting for logic, they're a mob looking for revenge.' That's what's happening. And it will only get worse for the Cons. They can't do anything. Sunak can't do anything. They are done. If, by some miracle, the Conservative Party does win the election, everybody (including everybody in the Conservative Party) will groan, think “here we go again” and the next 4 or 5 years will be like another extended version of the drift, chaos, and wasted opportunities of the last 4 years. Oh, and the Conservative Party will quickly dump Rishi Sunak as leader very soon after the election - even if we win. Like many on the left I am superstitious about the Tories somehow pulling it out of the bag with some magic trick - but just given how things have gone so far in the campaign, I genuinely don't see any foreseeable way they could actually *win*. IMO the absolute best they can expect now is a 2010 type result with Tories in Labour's position then. |
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Post by norflondon on Jun 3, 2024 10:59:46 GMT
Bare minimum Labour overall majority 50 for me
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