Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 23, 2024 12:40:39 GMT
None. Although FWIW, the APNI are effectively the NI Lib Dems (but I don't treat them as LDs in this forecast). I think the point is that you only have 17 others adding up to 650 in total with 18 NI and the Speaker to include in those others, so mathematically at least 2 NI must be covered by the seats counted elsewhere in your prediction, more if you're still backing Corbyn or other indies to win... Count APNI (2) as LDs |
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Post by johnloony on Jun 23, 2024 13:26:33 GMT
What Canada 1993 would look like here Labour 480 Lib Dems 100 Reform 20 SNP 15 Independents 10 Greens 4 PC 2 CON 2 OTH 17 I think the two Tory seats would be Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk (John Lamont) and Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale & Tweeddale (David Mundell). If the Conservative Party were reduced to the Canada-level wipeout, then their safest seats would have to be gained in greater numbers by Reform, not just by Lib Dems and Labour. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 23, 2024 14:17:21 GMT
What Canada 1993 would look like here Labour 480 Lib Dems 100 Reform 20 SNP 15 Independents 10 Greens 4 PC 2 CON 2 OTH 17 I think the two Tory seats would be Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk (John Lamont) and Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale & Tweeddale (David Mundell). If the Conservative Party were reduced to the Canada-level wipeout, then their safest seats would have to be gained in greater numbers by Reform, not just by Lib Dems and Labour. Reform outpolls the Tories in this forecast and yes, they take many safe Tory seats in Essex and Kent, as well as the two Tory Havering seats. |
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Post by kitesurfer on Jun 24, 2024 10:21:48 GMT
Labour 426
Conservative 128
Liberal Democrat 66
SNP 9
Reform 1
Green 1
Others 0
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Post by kitesurfer on Jun 24, 2024 10:29:44 GMT
Labour 426 Conservative 128 Liberal Democrat 66 SNP 9 Reform 1 Green 1 Others 0 Correction Labour 424 Conservative 128 Liberal Democrat 66 SNP 9 Plaid 2 Reform 1 Green 1 Others 0 |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on Jun 24, 2024 10:39:38 GMT
Labour - 303 Conservative - 265 Lib Dem - 50 SNP - 5 Plaid - 3 Reform - 3 Green - 2 May change before polling day Labour getting that few seats *and* an SNP near wipeout IS NOT HAPPENING. Seriously, there isn't even one chance in a thousand of it doing so. |
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Tony Otim
Green
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Post by Tony Otim on Jun 24, 2024 10:46:42 GMT
I've tried going through seat by seat. I may be underestimating Reform, I may be underestimating the scale of the Conservative collapse, but feel I've pushed them down as far as I can see happening. One or two seats I freely admit to indulging in wishful thinking (SW Norfolk). I was very reluctant to give Clacton to Reform, but that is one of my late changes:
Lab 411
Con 137
LD 57
SNP 15
PC 4
Reform 3
Grn 3
Oth 1
(Workers Party, SDP, etc...) 0
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Post by norflondon on Jun 24, 2024 11:27:04 GMT
Currently sticking to my original prediction, issued on 27th May:
Conservative 169
Labour 398
SNP 18
Liberal Democrats 42
Plaid Cymru 2
Green 1
Reform 0
Workers Party of Britain 0
SDP 0
OTHERS 1
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Jun 24, 2024 17:47:48 GMT
Here is my provisional forecast Conservatives 135 Labour 407 Liberal Democrats 65 SNP 12 Plaid Cymru 3 Green Party 4 Reform UK 3 Workers Party 1 SDP 0 Others 1 FWIW here are my predictions for Northern Ireland : Sinn Fein 7 DUP 5 Alliance 3 SDLP 2 UUP 1 I am happy to discuss on any relevant thread my reasons for my predictions seat by seat, which is how I've calculated it. I don't want to spam the General Election thread with endless individual predictions I’d be interested in your predictions for the Somerset seats? I genuinely think 6 of the 7 could be quite tight- the exception being I think the LDs will win Taunton & Wellington comfortably, |
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Post by froome on Jun 24, 2024 18:38:30 GMT
Here is my provisional forecast Conservatives 135 Labour 407 Liberal Democrats 65 SNP 12 Plaid Cymru 3 Green Party 4 Reform UK 3 Workers Party 1 SDP 0 Others 1 FWIW here are my predictions for Northern Ireland : Sinn Fein 7 DUP 5 Alliance 3 SDLP 2 UUP 1 I am happy to discuss on any relevant thread my reasons for my predictions seat by seat, which is how I've calculated it. I don't want to spam the General Election thread with endless individual predictions I’d be interested in your predictions for the Somerset seats? I genuinely think 6 of the 7 could be quite tight- the exception being I think the LDs will win Taunton & Wellington comfortably, Presumably your 7 seats includes Tiverton & Minehead, though that obviously crosses the county boundary. If the Lib Dems win that, it will certainly be an especially bad night for the Conservatives! I agree with you on Taunton & Wellington. Of the others, my thoughts at present are: Yeovil - probable Lib Dem win. Bridgwater - I can see 4 parties, i.e. Conservatives, Lib Dems, Labour and Reform, all in play for this. No idea which way it might go. Glastonbury & Somerton - certainly a chance for a Lib Dem win, but I don't think it will be easy for them. Wells & Mendip Hills - Lib Dem win. Frome & East Somerset - will be very interesting. I think Labour are probably favourites, but 4 parties, including ourselves, are in the mix, and who knows how Reform will do. There are another 3 and a half constituencies in the traditional county of Somerset, so might as well put those in here as well: Bath - Lib Dem Weston-super-Mare - I think Labour will win this. North Somerset - could be another interesting mix, though Lib Dems and Labour must both have a chance here. N.E. Somerset & Hanham - almost certainly a Labour win. |
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Post by batman on Jun 24, 2024 20:49:41 GMT
Here is my provisional forecast Conservatives 135 Labour 407 Liberal Democrats 65 SNP 12 Plaid Cymru 3 Green Party 4 Reform UK 3 Workers Party 1 SDP 0 Others 1 FWIW here are my predictions for Northern Ireland : Sinn Fein 7 DUP 5 Alliance 3 SDLP 2 UUP 1 I am happy to discuss on any relevant thread my reasons for my predictions seat by seat, which is how I've calculated it. I don't want to spam the General Election thread with endless individual predictions I’d be interested in your predictions for the Somerset seats? I genuinely think 6 of the 7 could be quite tight- the exception being I think the LDs will win Taunton & Wellington comfortably, I've given most of them to the Lib Dems, but could be wrong about Frome/E Somerset. The exception is Bridgwater which I think will be a Con hold. I am predicting a Lab gain in NE Somerset & Hanham (some of that is in Somerset itself right?) and a notional LD gain in Tiverton & Minehead. I see the Tories as doing a bit better in Devon than in Somerset, as was the case in the Blair years too. But still 4 Labour MPs in Devon, just |
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Post by batman on Jun 24, 2024 20:51:33 GMT
I’d be interested in your predictions for the Somerset seats? I genuinely think 6 of the 7 could be quite tight- the exception being I think the LDs will win Taunton & Wellington comfortably, Presumably your 7 seats includes Tiverton & Minehead, though that obviously crosses the county boundary. If the Lib Dems win that, it will certainly be an especially bad night for the Conservatives! I agree with you on Taunton & Wellington. Of the others, my thoughts at present are: Yeovil - probable Lib Dem win. Bridgwater - I can see 4 parties, i.e. Conservatives, Lib Dems, Labour and Reform, all in play for this. No idea which way it might go. Glastonbury & Somerton - certainly a chance for a Lib Dem win, but I don't think it will be easy for them. Wells & Mendip Hills - Lib Dem win. Frome & East Somerset - will be very interesting. I think Labour are probably favourites, but 4 parties, including ourselves, are in the mix, and who knows how Reform will do. There are another 3 and a half constituencies in the traditional county of Somerset, so might as well put those in here as well: Bath - Lib Dem Weston-super-Mare - I think Labour will win this. North Somerset - could be another interesting mix, though Lib Dems and Labour must both have a chance here. N.E. Somerset & Hanham - almost certainly a Labour win. tend to agree with pretty much all of this. |
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Jun 24, 2024 21:02:23 GMT
I’d be interested in your predictions for the Somerset seats? I genuinely think 6 of the 7 could be quite tight- the exception being I think the LDs will win Taunton & Wellington comfortably, Presumably your 7 seats includes Tiverton & Minehead, though that obviously crosses the county boundary. If the Lib Dems win that, it will certainly be an especially bad night for the Conservatives! I agree with you on Taunton & Wellington. Of the others, my thoughts at present are: Yeovil - probable Lib Dem win. Bridgwater - I can see 4 parties, i.e. Conservatives, Lib Dems, Labour and Reform, all in play for this. No idea which way it might go. Glastonbury & Somerton - certainly a chance for a Lib Dem win, but I don't think it will be easy for them. Wells & Mendip Hills - Lib Dem win. Frome & East Somerset - will be very interesting. I think Labour are probably favourites, but 4 parties, including ourselves, are in the mix, and who knows how Reform will do. There are another 3 and a half constituencies in the traditional county of Somerset, so might as well put those in here as well: Bath - Lib Dem Weston-super-Mare - I think Labour will win this. North Somerset - could be another interesting mix, though Lib Dems and Labour must both have a chance here. N.E. Somerset & Hanham - almost certainly a Labour win. I tend to agree, I think the Conservatives will probably hold Bridgwater, as I think the Bridgwater Labour vote is a little bit more susceptible to Reform than the average Lab vote and that could be crucial. I think the Tories will win Tiverton and Minehead but it will be close. Glastonbury & Somerton, Wells & Mendip Hills and Yeovil- I think could all be narrow LD wins. Frome & E Somerset I have no idea. Apart from Bath I think it’s quite likely that no one tops 45% in any of them. |
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nyx
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Post by nyx on Jun 25, 2024 0:29:51 GMT
Gonna stick my neck out and go against the grain a bit, the recent Redfield and Wilton mega-poll is slowly convincing me that maybe the sub-20% predictions aren't outliers Conservatives 43 Labour 476 SNP 30 Liberal Democrats 61 Plaid Cymru 4 Green 4 Reform 6 Workers Party 1 SDP 0 OTHERS 6 Having had a look at the map by my feelings on each individual seat, update: Labour 451 Lib Dem 77 Conservative 52 SNP 25 Reform 12 Green 5 Plaid Cymru 4 Workers 1 SDP 0 Others 4 |
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Jun 26, 2024 8:14:20 GMT
| Lab | 448 | | Con | 110 | | LD | 48 | | SNP | 18 | | PC | 3 | | Reform | 3 | | Green | 1 | | Others | 0 | | Total | 631 |
For fun: Wales: Lab (27), PC (3), Con (1), LD (1) Scotland: Lab (29), SNP (18), Con (5), LD (5) |
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Post by rogerg on Jun 26, 2024 12:24:40 GMT
Gonna stick my neck out and go against the grain a bit, the recent Redfield and Wilton mega-poll is slowly convincing me that maybe the sub-20% predictions aren't outliers Conservatives 43 Labour 476 SNP 30 Liberal Democrats 61 Plaid Cymru 4 Green 4 Reform 6 Workers Party 1 SDP 0 OTHERS 6 Having had a look at the map by my feelings on each individual seat, update: Labour 451 Lib Dem 77 Conservative 52 SNP 25 Reform 12 Green 5 Plaid Cymru 4 Workers 1 SDP 0 Others 4 Curious about that 5th Green seat..? |
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Merseymike
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Post by Merseymike on Jun 26, 2024 12:46:18 GMT
Gonna stick my neck out and go against the grain a bit, the recent Redfield and Wilton mega-poll is slowly convincing me that maybe the sub-20% predictions aren't outliers Conservatives 43 Labour 476 SNP 30 Liberal Democrats 61 Plaid Cymru 4 Green 4 Reform 6 Workers Party 1 SDP 0 OTHERS 6 Having had a look at the map by my feelings on each individual seat, update: Labour 451 Lib Dem 77 Conservative 52 SNP 25 Reform 12 Green 5 Plaid Cymru 4 Workers 1 SDP 0 Others 4 A couple of Reform MP's at best (Clacton, maybe Boston, I hope not, given there is a One Nation Tory MP) |
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nyx
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Post by nyx on Jun 26, 2024 12:56:49 GMT
Curious about that 5th Green seat..? Bristol Central, Brighton Pavilion, Isle of Wight East, North Herefordshire, Waveney Valley |
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Post by jm on Jun 26, 2024 15:43:17 GMT
Conservatives 198 170 Labour 368 376 SNP 24 28 Liberal Democrats 38 52 Plaid Cymru 2 Green 1 2 Reform 0 1 Workers Party 0 SDP 0 OTHERS 0 I have revised my prediction: Con 170 Lab 376 SNP 28 LDM 52 PC 2 GREEN 2 REFUK 1 WORKERS 0 SDP 0 OTHERS 0 |
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Sg1
Conservative
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Post by Sg1 on Jun 26, 2024 20:51:22 GMT
I have revised my prediction
Con 158
Lab 404
SNP 18
Lib Dem 46
PC 4
Green 1
Reform 1
Workers 0
SDP 0
Others 0
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