Prediction Competition - May & June 2024

[Robert Waller]

COVENTRY, Radford : Lab 61 C 14 Green 10 Cov Cit 7 LD 4 TUSC 4

MANSFIELD, West Bank : C 30 Lab 35 Mansfield Ind 27 Green 3 LD 3 TUSC 2

MID DEVON, Tiverton Westexe : LD 45 C 21 Green 17 Ind 17

OXFORDSHIRE, Sutton Courtenay & Marcham : LD 57 C 23 Lab 12 Green 8

SEFTON, St Oswald : Lab 79 Green 6 TUSC 4 LD 3 C 4 WP 4

VALE OF WHITE HORSE, Sutton Courtenay : LD 55 C 24 Green 11 Lab 10

[manchesterman]

Coventry, Radford: Lab 55, Con 18, Green 11, Cov 9, LD 5, TUSC 2.

Mansfield, West Bank: Con 31, Lab 30, Mansfield Ind 27, LD 7, Green 4, TUSC 1.

Mid Devon, West-exe: LD 40, Con 25, Ind 23, Green 12.

Oxfordshire, Sutton Courtenay: LD 49, Con 31, Lab 10, Green 10.

Sefton, St Oswald: Lab 75, Green 8, TUSC 6, Con 5, LD 3, WP 3.

Vale of White Horse, Sutton Courtenay: LD 54, Con 29, Green 9, Lab 8.

[peterl]

Coventry, Radford: Lab 58, Green 15, Con 11, LD 7, Cov 6, TUSC 3.

Mansfield, West Bank: Mansfield Ind 30, Lab 29, Con 25, LD 9, Green 5, TUSC 2.

Mid Devon, West-exe: LD 43, Ind 25, Con 18, Green 14.

Oxfordshire, Sutton Courtenay: LD 55, Con 22, Green 13, Lab 10.

Sefton, St Oswald: Lab 69, Green 17, TUSC 5, LD 4, WP 3, Con 2.

Vale of White Horse, Sutton Courtenay: LD 65, Con 15, Green 13, Lab 7.

[rightleaning]

Coventry, Radford: Lab 52, Con 19, Green 13, Cov 8, LD 7, TUSC 1
Mansfield, West Bank: Mansfield Ind 33, Lab 30, Con 27, LD 5, Green 4, TUSC 1
Mid Devon, West-exe: LD 44, Con 25, Ind 21, Green 10
Oxfordshire, Sutton Courtenay: LD 52, Con 29, Green 11, Lab 8
Sefton, St Oswald: Lab 76, Green 11, Con 5, TUSC 4, LD 3, WP 1.
Vale of White Horse, Sutton Courtenay: LD 59, Con 25, Green 11, Lab 5.

[carolus]

Coventry, Radford:
Lab 56, Con 21, Green 8, CovCit 6, LD 6, TUSC 3

Mansfield, West Bank:
Lab 35, Mansfield Ind 30, Con 25, LD 4, Green 3, TUSC 3

Mid Devon, Tiverton Westexe:
LD 40, Con 25, Ind 20, Green 15

Oxfordshire, Sutton Courtenay & Marcham:
LD 55, Con 25, Lab 10, Green 10

Sefton, St Oswald:
Lab 75, WPB 5, TUSC 5, Green 5, Con 5, LD 5

Vale of White Horse, Sutton Courtenay:
LD 55, Con 30, Lab 10, Green 5

[iainbhx]

Coventry MBC, Radford: Lab 54, Grn 17, Con 15, CovCit 6, TUSC 5, LDm 3
Mansfield DC, West Bank: Mansfield Ind 32, Lab 31, Con 26, Grn 6, LDm 4, TUSC 1
Mid Devon DC, Tiverton Westexe: LDm 42, Ind 24, Con 21, Grn 13
Oxfordshire CC, Sutton Courtenay: LDm 44, Con 29, Grn 22, Lab 5
Sefton MBC, St Oswald: Lab 67, Green 13, WPB 8, Con 6, TUSC 4, LDm 2,
Vale of White Horse DC, Sutton Courtenay: LDm 44, Grn 31, Con 20, Lab 5.

[Robert Waller]

No words from robbienicoll yet, but by my rough calculations we still have a close bunching at the top, with maybe andrewp now in the monthly lead.

I think manchesterman, iainbhx and carolus (yet again) are among the best for the week.

[robbienicoll]

Apologies, I’m back from Germany on Monday so will have final results available then. Also for clarity we won’t do the 4th July contests - sorry if anyone has already started!

[The Bishop]

Contests could be a bit thin on the ground for a while after that, so maybe combine July and August as has been the case with May and June?

[robbienicoll]

11 entries for the 20th, all on time but with batman going 4 over in Mansfield and corradino giving 8% to a phantom Reform candidate in place of the Lib Dem.

Radford, Coventry: 100% Labour hold, with majorities ranging from 33% (Right Leaning) to 47% (Robert Waller).

West Bank, Mansfield: 4 Conservative hold and 4 Labour gain, with iainbhx, peterl and Right Leaning Mansfield Independent gain.

Tiverton Westexe, Mid Devon: 100% Liberal Democrat hold, with majorities ranging from 3% (corradino) to 26% (kevinf).

Sutton Courtenay and Marcham, Oxfordshire: 100% Liberal Democrat hold, with majorities ranging from 9% (corradino) to 34% (Robert Waller).

St Oswald, Sefton: 100% Labour hold, with majorities ranging from 52% (peterl) to 73% (Robert Waller).

Sutton Courtenay, Vale of White Horse: 100% Liberal Democrat hold, with majorities ranging from 13% (iainbhx) to 50% (peterl).

Results are available from - docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1AQZzKIetQSX6-1MQ6-l0MyQuQQJyw8pqC0rEGuQsZME/edit?usp=sharing - well done to all on a really close week. All to play for on Thursday.

[greenman]

Tony Otim are you able to talk about the 2024 UK election as obviously Sutton Courtenay in Vale of White Horse result caught everyone on this Prediction Competition list by surprise. But it follows a similar pattern to Maidstone 2023 and 2024. I am wondering whether socio-economic profile of Vale of White Horse, Oxfordshire, is similar in North Herefordshire and Waveney Valley?

[kevinf]

Cumberland
Lab 48, LD 24, Con 23, Green 5
Hackney
Lab 54, Green 21, Con 15, LD 10
South Tyneside
Ind 43 Lab 42, Green 15

[peterl]

Cumberland Lab 46, LD 29, Con 19, Green 6
Hackney Lab 51, Green 26, LD 12, Con 11
South Tyneside Ind 40 Lab 39, Green 21

[Tony Otim]

Cumberland: Lab 57.9; Con 22.7; Grn 10.7; LD 8.7
Hackney: Lab 56.1; Grn 21.5; Con 12.7; LD 9.7
South Tyneside: Hamilton 48.5; Lab 41.6; Grn 9.9

[carolus]

Cumberland, Harraby North:
Lab 50, Con 20, LD 20, Green 10

Hackney, Hoxton West:
Lab 50, Green 35, LD 10, Con 5

South Tyneside, Primrose:
Ind 45, Lab 30, Green 20

[andrewp]

Cumberland. Harraby North. Lab 57 Con 23 Green 10 LD 10
Hackney, Hoxton West, Lab 58 Green 23 LD 11 Con 8
S Tyneside. Primrose. Ind 50 Lab 36 Green 14

[batman]

CUMBERLAND, Harraby N : Lab 61 C 27 Green 7 LD 5

HACKNEY, Hoxton W. : Lab 48 Green 37 LD 8 C 7

S.TYNESIDE, Primrose : Ind 50 Lab 38 Green 12

[corradino]

Cumberland, Harraby North: Lab 58, Con 22, Green 16, LD 4.

Hackney, Hoxton West: Lab 52, Green 26, LD 12, Con 10.

South Tyneside, Primrose: Ind 52, Lab 35, Green 13.

[manchesterman]

CUMBERLAND, Harraby N : Lab 51, C 26, LD 18, Green 5

HACKNEY, Hoxton W. : Lab 54, Green 36, LD 6, C 4

S.TYNESIDE, Primrose : Ind 46, Lab 40, Green 14

[Robert Waller]

CUMBERLAND, Harraby N : Lab 59 C 22 Green 14 LD 5

HACKNEY, Hoxton W. : Lab 58 Green 27 LD 5 C 10

S.TYNESIDE, Primrose : Ind 49 Lab 43 Green 8