Prediction Competition - May & June 2024

[Tony Otim]

Oops - completely missed that. Still on recent form, the 100 faults is probably not much more than I would have got anyway...

[carolus]

Jun 4, 2024 15:29:12 GMT Tony Otim said:

Oops - completely missed that. Still on recent form, the 100 faults is probably not much more than I would have got anyway...

I'm glad I'm not the only one!

[Tony Otim]

Axholme North: Con 51.4; Lab 35.8; LD 12.8
Brumby: Lab 59.7; Con 21.9; LD 11.0; Grn 7.4
The Nedge: Lab 63.7; Con 19.8; LD 11.5; Vaughan-Hodkinson 5.0
Wellswood: Con 49.0; LD 26.1; RefUK 9.6; Lab 9.1; Grn 5.1; Moor 1.1

[robbienicoll]

8 entries for the early contest, all on time and correct. 

Rhiwcynon, Powys: 100% Plaid Cymru gain from Independent, with majorities ranging from 3% (iainbhx) to 16% (batman).

Results available at - docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1LD0r7OcOCtpf0xuzcv0NQQ_o2ERneTpzmPQLnto8uqA/edit?usp=sharing - good luck to all!

[andrewp]

N LIncs. Axholme North. Con 52 Lab 40 LD 8
N Lincs, Brumby Lab 62 Con 24 LD 7 Green 7
Telford. The Nedge, Lab 61 Con 21 Ind 9 LD 9
Torbay, Wellswood. Con 45 LD 35 Green 6 Lab 6 RefUK 5 Ind 3

[kevinf]

N Lincs Axholme N
Con 50, LD 26, Lab 24
N Lincs Brumby
Lab 50, Con 20, LD 18, Green 12
Telford
Lab 52, Con 13, Green 12, LD 12, Ind 11
Torbay
Con 44, LD 29, Reform 10, Green 9, Lab 7, ND 1

[Robert Waller]

N Lincs. Axholme North. Con 55 Lab 35 LD 10

N Lincs, Brumby Lab 65 Con 21 LD 7 Green 7

Telford. The Nedge, Lab 59 Con 20 Ind 11 LD 10

Torbay, Wellswood. Con 40 LD 36 Green 7 Lab 6 RefUK 7 Ind 4

[iainbhx]

North Lincolnshire UA, Axholme North: Con 51 Lab 37 LDm 12
North Lincolnshire UA, Brumby: Lab 60 Con 28 Grn 8 LDm 4
Telford & The Wrekin UA, The Nedge: Lab 58 Con 21 Ind 14 LDm 7
Torbay UA, Wellswood: Con 43 LDm 34 ReF-UK 10 Grn 8 Lab 4 Ind 1

[peterl]

North Lincolnshire UA, Axholme North: Con 47 Lab 40 LD 13
North Lincolnshire UA, Brumby: Lab 60 Con 24 Grn 10 LD 6
Telford & The Wrekin UA, The Nedge: Lab 55 Con 19 Ind 17 LD 9
Torbay UA, Wellswood: LD 36 Con 35 Ref 15 Grn 7 Lab 5 Ind 2

[corradino]

North Lincolnshire, Axholme North: Con 58, Lab 36, LD 6.

" " Brumby: Lab 59, Con 25, Green 10, LD 6.

Telford, The Nedge: Lab 55, Con 25, Ind 10, LD 10.

Torbay, Wellswood: Con 50, LD 31, Green 9, Reform 5, Lab 4, Moor (ND) 1.

[batman]

N.LINCOLNSHIRE, Axholme N.: C 60 Lab 34 LD 6

N.LINCOLNSHIRE, Brumby : Lab 64 C 25 Green 7 LD 4

TELFORD, The Nedge : Lab 59 C 29 LD 7 Ind 5

TORBAY, Wellswood : C 44 LD 27 Green 12 RefUK 9 Lab 6 Moor 2

[rightleaning]

North Lincolnshire UA, Axholme North: Con 53, Lab 34, LDm 13
North Lincolnshire UA, Brumby: Lab 57, Con 29, Grn 9, LDm 5
Telford & The Wrekin UA, The Nedge: Lab 54, Con 24, Ind 16, LDm 6
Torbay UA, Wellswood: Con 47, LDm 35, ReF-UK 8, Grn 6, Lab 3, Ind 1

[carolus]

North Lincolnshire, Axholme North:
Con 55, Lab 37, LD 8

North Lincolnshire, Brumby:
Lab 60, Con 25, LD 8, Green 7

Telford & Wrekin, The Nedge:
Lab 55, Con 20, Ind 10, LD 8, Green 7

Torbay, Wellswood:
Con 45, LD 33, Reform 8, Lab 7, Green 5, ND 2

[manchesterman]

North Lincolnshire, Axholme North:
Con 56, Lab 37, LD 7

North Lincolnshire, Brumby:
Lab 55, Con 28, Green 9, LD 8

Telford & Wrekin, The Nedge:
Lab 54, Con 24, Ind 14, LD 8

Torbay, Wellswood:
Con 44, LD 35, Reform 10, Lab 5, Green 5, ND 1

[robbienicoll]

11 entries for the Thursday, with manchesterman receiving 4 x 2.5 faults for posting 20 mins over the deadline, and a couple of phantom Green candidates predicted in the Telford and Wrekin contest by carolus (7) and kevinf (12) respectively.

Axholme North, North Lincolnshire: 100% Conservative hold, with majorities ranging from 7% (peterl) to 26% (batman).

Brumby, North Lincolnshire: 100% Labour hold, with majorities ranging from 27% (manchesterman) to 44% (Robert Waller).

The Nedge, Telford and Wrekin: 100% Labour hold, with majorities ranging from 30% (batman, corradino, manchesterman and Right Leaning) to 43.9% (Tony Otim).

Wellswood, Torbay: 10 Conservative hold, with majorities ranging from 4% (Robert Waller) to 22.9% (Tony Otim). Peterl with Liberal Democrat gain with 1% majority.

Results available at - docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Sryc1bGxYa4F19oyYjvFLe5Rn24xQq-OxSQbRz3DALA/edit?usp=sharing - good luck to all!

[Robert Waller]

Congrats to carolus for the week and iainbhx for retaining the lead for the month(s) so far.

[Tony Otim]

Greenwich: Lab 42.9; Con 41.5; LD 8.0; RefUK 4.4; Grn 3.2
Highland: LD 27.4; Dundas 23.4; Shearer 21.1; SNP 16.3; Con 7.6; Grn 3.2; Libert 1.0 (Dundas win on transfers)
West Dunbartonshire: Lab 47.9; SNP 38.1; Con 5.4; LD 3.6; Comm 2.4; Muir 2.0; Sov 0.6

[batman]

GREENWICH, Mottingham, Coldharbour & New Eltham : Lab 42 C 39 RefUK 9 Green 6 LD 4

HIGHLAND, Tain & Easter Ross : LD 25 SNP 22 Ind Dundas 21 Ind Shearer 19 Con 9 Green 3 Libertarian 1. LD win on transfers

W.DUNBARTONSHIRE, Clydebank C. : Lab 48 SNP 32 C 8 Ind 7 LD 3 CPB 1 Sovereignty 1. Lab win on transfers

[kevinf]

Greenwich
Lab 52, Con 30, LD 7, Reform 6, Green 5
Highlands
Ind Dundas 33, LD 30, SNP 13, Ind Shearer 13.5, Con 5.5, Green 4, Lib 1 (Dundas win)
West Dunbarton
Lab 41, SNP 32, LD 12, Con 8, Ind 4, Comm 2, Sov 1 (Lab win)

[iainbhx]

GREENWICH LBC, Mottingham, Coldharbour & New Eltham: Lab 41 Con 37 Ref-UK 11 Grn 7 LDm 4

HIGHLAND SUA, Tain & Easter Ross : Ind Shearer 28 LDm 26 SNP 17 Ind Dundas 14 CON 8 LAB 4.5 GRN 2.5 Libertarian 1 - Ind Shearer to win on transfers.

WEST DUNBARTONSHIRE SUA, Clydebank Central : Lab 48 SNP 33 Con 10 Ind 4 LDm 3 CPB 1.5 Sov 0.5 - Lab win on transfers.