Prediction Competition - May & June 2024

[corradino]

Greenwich, Mottingham etc Lab 44, Con 40, LD 6, Ref 6, Green 4.

Highland, Tain & Easter Ross: LD 26, Dundas 23, Shearer 22, SNP 17, Con 8, Green 3, Libertarian 1. Dundas wins on transfers.

W. Dunbartonshire, Clydebank Central: Lab 42, SNP 41, Con 7, Muir 4, LD 3, CPB 2, Sov 1. Lab win on transfers.

[Robert Waller]

GREENWICH, Mottingham, Coldharbour & New Eltham : Lab 46 C 36 RefUK 8 Green 6 LD 4

HIGHLAND, Tain & Easter Ross : LD 26 SNP 17 Ind Dundas 22 Ind Shearer 22 Con 9 Green 3 Libertarian 1. LD win on transfers

W.DUNBARTONSHIRE, Clydebank C. : Lab 50 SNP 34 C 4 Ind 8 LD 3 CPB 1 Sovereignty 0. Lab win

[peterl]

GREENWICH, Mottingham, Coldharbour & New Eltham : Lab 42 C 34 RefUK 10 Green 8 LD 6

HIGHLAND, Tain & Easter Ross : LD 29 Ind Dundas 25 Ind Shearer 19 SNP 14 Con 7 Green 5 Libertarian 1. LD win on transfers

W.DUNBARTONSHIRE, Clydebank C. : Lab 53 SNP 30 Ind 8 Lib Dem 5 Con 3 CPB 1 Sovereignty 0. Lab win

[andrewp]

Greenwich. Lab 46 Con 35 RefUK 7 LD 6 Green 6

Highland. Dundas 31 LD 23 Shearer 19 SNP 15 Con 8 Green 3 Lib 1 Dundas win

W Dunbartonshire. Lab 48 SNP 35.5 Con 6 Ind 5 LD 4 Comm 1 Sov 0.5. Lab win

[manchesterman]

GREENWICH, Mottingham, Coldharbour & New Eltham : Lab 48, C 32, RefUK 10, Green 6, LD 4

HIGHLAND, Tain & Easter Ross : LD 26, Ind Dundas 22, Ind Shearer 22, SNP 18, Con 8, Green 3, Libertarian 1. LD win on transfers

W.DUNBARTONSHIRE, Clydebank C. : Lab 46, SNP 31, C 11, Ind 6, LD 4, CPB 1, Sovereignty 1. Lab win on transfers

[rightleaning]

Greenwich, Mottingham etc Lab 51, Con 34, LD 8, Ref 4, Green 3.

Highland, Tain & Easter Ross: LD 28, Dundas 24, Shearer 20, SNP 16, Con 8, Green 3, Libertarian 1. Dundas wins on transfers.

W. Dunbartonshire, Clydebank Central: Lab 40, SNP 38, Con 9, LD 6, Muir 4, CPB 2, Sov 1. Lab win on transfers.

[carolus]

Greenwich, "Mottingham, Coldharbour & New Eltham":
Lab 45, Con 35, Green 8, Reform UK 7, LD 5

Highland, Tain & Easter Ross:
Ind (Dundas) 35, LD 30, SNP 15, Ind (Shearer) 10, Con 7, Green 2, Libertarian 1. Dundas win on transfers.

West Dunbartonshire, Clydebank Central:
Lab 42, SNP 38, Con 5, Ind 8, LD 4, Communist 2, Sovreignity 1. Lab win on transfers.

[robbienicoll]

11 entries this week, all on time but with iainbhx predicting 4.5 for a phantom Labour candidate in Highland, however the actual entry only adds up to being 3.5 under so that's the final attributed faults.

Coldharbour and New Eltham, Greenwich: 100% Labour gain from Conservative, with majorities ranging from 1.4% (Tony Otim) to 22% (kevinf).

Tain and Easter Ross, Highland: 4 have Liberal Democrat ahead on first preferences and gain from Independent after transfers; andrewp, carolus and kevinf have Independent (Dundas) ahead on first preferences and win after transfers; corradino, Right Leaning and Tony Otim have Liberal Democrats ahead on first preferences but with Independent (Dundas) win after transfers; and iainbhx has Independent (Shearer) ahead on first preferences and win after transfers (phew!).

Clydebank Central, West Dunbartonshire: 100% Labour ahead on first preferences and hold after transfers, with first preference majorities ranging from 1% (corradino) to 23% (peterl).

Results available at - docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1z4zzI-IeTy67bI0NEqsIRb3Y_kwq2AKBIAJ_zLzsqAc/edit?usp=sharing - good luck to all!

[kevinf]

After Greenwich, I hope no-one here is betting too much on General Election results!

[Robert Waller]

Thanks to robbienicoll for the results, and to carolus for a second successive week victory.

Now very tight at the top for the month, with corradino just ahead of andrewp and several others in close attendance.

[manchesterman]

Jun 14, 2024 11:45:46 GMT kevinf said:

After Greenwich, I hope no-one here is betting too much on General Election results!

I've noticed in recent weeks, that despite the absolute cliff-edge fall in Tory support nationally, that local votes for Tory candidates up and down the country has been holding up surprisingly well.

I know that Farage in particular is peddling this line about "the Tory party becoming  extinct" but I believe that is complete nonsense.  The Tory party principles [low tax, small govt etc] will always exist and is still believed in by many millions of people.  What they've comprehensively rejected is the current iteration of the Westminster cabal of MPs ( 'Johnson's Babes'?). Absolute headbangers, liars, charlatans, filled with hubris & self-interest and not an ounce of compassion or sense of 'one nation/we're all in it together' ideals that has been present in the respectable wing of the party for decades.

The next year or 2 will be vital for the party. If they're listening to 'natural Tory voters', they've demonstrated they will still support traditional Tory values [as shown in the locals], but will continue to be repelled by the divisive, culture war-stoking nonsense, flirting with sickening elements of the far-right, which emerged post-2019 [as shown in the national polls]. They can turn back and become a party of government again, or keep going on their current trajectory towards oblivion.  Same with the GOP in the USA, but that's another thread!

[observer]

Jun 14, 2024 20:26:18 GMT manchesterman said:

Jun 14, 2024 11:45:46 GMT kevinf said:

After Greenwich, I hope no-one here is betting too much on General Election results!

I've noticed in recent weeks, that despite the absolute cliff-edge fall in Tory support nationally, that local votes for Tory candidates up and down the country has been holding up surprisingly well.

I know that Farage in particular is peddling this line about "the Tory party becoming  extinct" but I believe that is complete nonsense.  The Tory party principles [low tax, small govt etc] will always exist and is still believed in by many millions of people.  What they've comprehensively rejected is the current iteration of the Westminster cabal of MPs ( 'Johnson's Babes'?). Absolute headbangers, liars, charlatans, filled with hubris & self-interest and not an ounce of compassion or sense of 'one nation/we're all in it together' ideals that has been present in the respectable wing of the party for decades.

The next year or 2 will be vital for the party. If they're listening to 'natural Tory voters', they've demonstrated they will still support traditional Tory values [as shown in the locals], but will continue to be repelled by the divisive, culture war-stoking nonsense, flirting with sickening elements of the far-right, which emerged post-2019 [as shown in the national polls]. They can turn back and become a party of government again, or keep going on their current trajectory towards oblivion.  Same with the GOP in the USA, but that's another thread!

It's the Left that is stoking the culture war. The Tories support them

[andrewp]

Jun 14, 2024 20:26:18 GMT manchesterman said:

Jun 14, 2024 11:45:46 GMT kevinf said:

After Greenwich, I hope no-one here is betting too much on General Election results!

I've noticed in recent weeks, that despite the absolute cliff-edge fall in Tory support nationally, that local votes for Tory candidates up and down the country has been holding up surprisingly well.

I know that Farage in particular is peddling this line about "the Tory party becoming  extinct" but I believe that is complete nonsense.  The Tory party principles [low tax, small govt etc] will always exist and is still believed in by many millions of people.  What they've comprehensively rejected is the current iteration of the Westminster cabal of MPs ( 'Johnson's Babes'?). Absolute headbangers, liars, charlatans, filled with hubris & self-interest and not an ounce of compassion or sense of 'one nation/we're all in it together' ideals that has been present in the respectable wing of the party for decades.

The next year or 2 will be vital for the party. If they're listening to 'natural Tory voters', they've demonstrated they will still support traditional Tory values [as shown in the locals], but will continue to be repelled by the divisive, culture war-stoking nonsense, flirting with sickening elements of the far-right, which emerged post-2019 [as shown in the national polls]. They can turn back and become a party of government again, or keep going on their current trajectory towards oblivion.  Same with the GOP in the USA, but that's another thread!

The Tory local election performance has been slightly better in the last few weeks than it was a few months ago. It is not currently the local performance that would naturally match a party at 20% in the polls. As you say there are plenty of people quite happy to vote Tory locally- perhaps the fact that most councils aren’t Tory controlled now means that those people have a local council to protest against and also there aren’t many RefUK candidates in local elections so some voters would currently vote Con locally and Ref UK nationally. 

The FBPE types on X who are excited at the prospect of a Lab government with a LD opposition and no Tory party just don’t seem to get that at least 30% of the population will always be inclined to vote for a right of centre party. If there’s no Tory party, there will be something they like even less, which will probably be capable of getting into government on occasion.

As you indicate though, it depends what the Tory party do post defeat, and can they find a position that keeps a wide coalition happy. I genuinely think that the Lab government might become quite unpopular quite quickly but the Tories could well be in civil war at that point. 

[greenman]

My observation is that the polling is indicating that, unlike the 2019 EU, the Conservatives are holding onto their 65+ vote and that in these local by-elections it is likely older voters who are taking the time to vote in local elections.

[The Bishop]

That is actually a very plausible reading. Plus local elections are not national ones, and with particular reference to the Greenwich contest they would credibly have been able to say "Labour already have an overwhelming majority, do you want to reduce the opposition voice on the council even further?" - I know they are trying a similar line in this GE, but it maybe doesn't have quite the same effect when they are not yet out of power.

[batman]

COVENTRY, Radford : Lab 59 C 18 Green 9 Cov Cit 6 LD 4 TUSC 4

MANSFIELD, West Bank : C 37 Lab 33 Mansfield Ind 22 Green 6 LD 4 TUSC 2

MID DEVON, Tiverton Westexe : LD 36 C 27 Green 19 Ind 18

OXFORDSHIRE, Sutton Courtenay & Marcham : LD 48 C 34 Lab 11 Green 7

SEFTON, St Oswald : Lab 75 Green 8 TUSC 6 LD 5 C 4 WP 2

VALE OF WHITE HORSE, Sutton Courtenay : LD 49 C 26 Green 15 Lab 10

[corradino]

Siesta time in sunny Sicily so thought I should send in an early entry now rather than vino-fuelled nonsense later tonight.

Coventry, Radford: Lab 58, Con 19, Green 9, Cov Ctzs 7, LD 4, TUSC 3.

Mansfield, West Bank: Con 33, Lab 29, Mansfield Ind 24, Reform 8, Green 5, TUSC 1.

Mid Devon, West-exe: LD 31, Con 28, Ind 22, Green 19.

Oxfordshire, Sutton Courtenay: LD 45, Con 36, Lab 12, Green 7.

Sefton, St Oswald: Lab 78, TUSC 6, Con 6, Green 5, LD 3.5, WP 1.5.

Vale of White Horse, Sutton Courtenay: LD 50, Con 29, Lab 11, Green 10.

[kevinf]

Coventry
Lab 55, Con 17, Green 16, LD 9, CovCit 2, Tusc 1
Mansfield
Con 35, Lab 34, Mansfield Ind 18, LD 8, Green 4, Tusc 1
Mid Devon
LD 48, Con 22, Ind 18, Green 12
Oxfordshire
LD 40, Con 25, Green 20, Lab 15
Sefton
Lab 66, LD 12, Green 7, WP 6, Con 5, Tusc 4
VWH
LD 50, Con 28, Green 12, Lab 10

You’d have thought the Workers Party would have stood in the West Bank….I’ll get my coat

[Tony Otim]

Coventry: Lab 58.7; Con13.1; Cov Cit 11.2; Grn 11.0; TUSC 3.8; LD 2.2
Mansfield: Lab 31.9; Con 28.3; Mans Ind 25.0; LD 6.8;Grn 4.5; TUSC 3.5
Mid Devon: LD 40.7; Lejeune 22.6; Con 19.8; Grn 16.9
Oxon: LD 54.2; Con 28.6; Lab 10.6; Grn 6.6
Sefton: Lab 75.4; Grn 7.0; TUSC 6.5; Con 6.1; LD 2.9; WP 2.1
Vale of White Horse: LD 53.2; Con 24.1; GRn 12.2; Lab 10.5

[andrewp]

Coventry. Lab 58 Con 13 Green 13 Cov 9 LD 4 TUSC 3
Mansfield. Lab 40 Mans Ind 29 Con 20 Green 4 TUSC 4 LD 3
Mid Devon LD 45 Ind 23 Con 22 Green 10
Oxfordshire LD 53 Con 29 Green 10 Lab 8
Sefton. Lab 72 LD 7 TUSC 7 Workers 6 Green 5 Con 3
Vale of White Horse. LD 58 Con 25 Green 9 Lab 8