Prediction Competition - May & June 2024

[andrewp]

Birmingham. Kingstanding Lab 48 Con 37 LD 5 Green 4 Workers 4 TUSC 2

[Robert Waller]

BIRMINGHAM MBC, Kingstanding: Lab 47.5 Con 39 Grn 5.5 LDm 3.5 Workers 4 TUSC 0.5

[corradino]

Birmingham, Kingstanding: Lab 46, Con 42, Green 5, Workers 3.5, LD 3, TUSC 0.5.

[manchesterman]

Lab 44, Con 35, Workers 10, Green 5, LD 5, TUSC 1

[rightleaning]

Birmingham, Kingstanding: Lab 46, Con 40, Green 5, LD 5, Workers 3, TUSC 1.

[carolus]

Birmingham, Kingstanding:
Lab 50, Con 35, Green 5, LD 5, Workers Party 3, TUSC 2

[batman]

BIRMINGHAM, Kingstanding : Lab 44 C 38 Green 7 LD 6 WP 4 TUSC 1. Apologies if too late to enter competition

[Sg1]

Birmingham, Kingstanding: Con 45, Lab 43, Green 5, Workers 3, LD 3, TUSC 1.

[Sg1]

First time I've done the prediction competition two weeks in a row and I've posted late twice in a row 🤦 ah well, let's see if I'm right about Kingstanding.

[kevinf]

May 30, 2024 23:36:17 GMT Sg1 said:

First time I've done the prediction competition two weeks in a row and I've posted late twice in a row 🤦 ah well, let's see if I'm right about Kingstanding.

We’ll, you appear to be quite good at this! Only one that got the winner…

[robbienicoll]

12 entries for this week, all correct but with batman picking up 5 faults and sg1 getting 85 for posting over the deadline.

Kingstanding, Birmingham: 11 Labour gain from Conservative, majorities ranging from 3% (iainbhx) to 15% (carolus). Sg1 had Conservative hold with majority of 2%.

Results available at - docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/100kW6erpc6lPnEzwRv2fZJjQpzf1ytFXSu69OOWyvQk/edit?usp=sharing - congratulations to Sg1 on getting the closest - just unfortunate with the posting deadline. June spiel will be up later today.

[robbienicoll]

There are currently 16 by-elections and 1 deferred election from the May locals to be held during June.

- 1 by-election on 4 June
- 4 on 6 June
- 3 on 13 June
- 6 on 20 June
- 3 on 27 June

5 by-elections are for unitary authorities, 4 last contested in 2023 and 1 in 2022
3 are for district councils, all last contested in 2023
3 are for metropolitan councils, two last contested in May and 1 in 2023
2 are for London councils last contested in 2022
2 are for Scottish councils, 1 of which was last contested in a 2023 by-election with both having the last full election in 2022
1 is for a Welsh council last contested in 2022
1 is for a county council last contested in 2021

Labour defend 7 seats including the seat in the deferred election, 3 following a resignation, 1 of which was sitting as an Independent and 3 the death of the previous councillor
Conservatives defend 4 seats, 3 following the death of the previous councillor, 1 of which was sitting as Prosper Torbay, and 1 resignation
Liberal Democrats defend 3 seats, 2 following a resignation and 1 a disqualification who was sitting as an Independent
Independents defend 3 seats, 1 following the death of the previous councillor and 2 a resignation

With 14 of 17 SOPNs having been published, there is a full slate of 14 Conservative and Liberal Democrat candidates, 13 Labour, 10 Greens, 3 Reform UK, 3 TUSC, 2 SNP and 1 apiece for the Scottish Greens, Sovereignty, Workers Party, Scottish Libertarians, Communist Party of Britain, Coventry Citizens and Mansfield Independents together with 7 Independents and 1 No Description contesting 6 elections – a total of 75 candidates for 14 seats.

[kevinf]

Powys
PC 28, Ind Jones 20, LD 14, Con 13, Ind Markinson 12, Lab 6, Green 5, Ref 2

[iainbhx]

Powys WUA: Rhiwcynon

PC 28 Con 25 LDm 15 Ind Jones 12 Lab 9 Grn 7 RE-FUK 3 Ind Markinson 1

This is a very local election for very local people.

[corradino]

Powys, Rhiwcynon: Haven't a clue really but here goes:-

PC 35, Jones (Ind) 20, LD 13, Lab 11, Con 10, Reform 5, Green 5, Markinson (Ind) 1.

[batman]

POWYS, Rhiwcynon : PC 36 Ind Jones 20 LD 17 C 12 Lab 6 RefUK 4 Green 3 Ind Markinson 2

[andrewp]

Powys, Rhiwcynon

PC 32 LD 20 Con 17 Jones 16 Lab 6 Green 3 Markinson 3 RefUK 3

[manchesterman]

Powys WUA: Rhiwcynon

PC 30, Con 18, LD 16, Ind Jones 16, Lab 6, Grn 6, RefUK 4, Ind Markinson 4

[Robert Waller]

PC 28 Con 20 LDm 20 Ind Jones 13 Lab 9 Green 6 Reform 4 Ind Markinson 0

[peterl]

Powys: Rhiwcynon PC 27, LD 20, Ind Jones 18, Con 15, Lab 8, Grn 5, RefUK 4, Ind Markinson 3