stb12
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Post by stb12 on Mar 14, 2024 2:40:23 GMT
Fermanagh & South Tyrone
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Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on May 24, 2024 10:39:05 GMT
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stb12
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Post by stb12 on May 24, 2024 11:29:19 GMT
Unionist gain is possible but requires there to only be one Unionist candidate and the SDLP also need to stand. Even at that it’s really a turn out game
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Post by boondock on May 24, 2024 11:57:39 GMT
Unionist gain is possible but requires there to only be one Unionist candidate and the SDLP also need to stand. Even at that it’s really a turn out game I can't see it. Im amazed as it is that Unionism has still been competitive here despite 20 yrs of demographic shift, boundary changes have surely closed the door on any chance now though |
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stb12
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Post by stb12 on May 24, 2024 12:05:59 GMT
Unionist gain is possible but requires there to only be one Unionist candidate and the SDLP also need to stand. Even at that it’s really a turn out game I can't see it. Im amazed as it is that Unionism has still been competitive here despite 20 yrs of demographic shift, boundary changes have surely closed the door on any chance now though Are the boundary changes significant on that score? |
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riccimarsh
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Post by riccimarsh on May 24, 2024 12:31:50 GMT
This MP must surely have the smallest average majority (win or loss) of any MP who has stood in say more than two elections… 53, 4582, 4, -530, 875 and 57, giving an average majority of 1016 across six elections. Does anyone know of any other contenders??
Likewise this must be the closest constituency so far this century, right??
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on May 24, 2024 13:11:11 GMT
I can't see it. Im amazed as it is that Unionism has still been competitive here despite 20 yrs of demographic shift, boundary changes have surely closed the door on any chance now though Are the boundary changes significant on that score? They aren't massive and could be much worse from a unionist perspective (eg some of the zombie reviews proposed adding Coalisland, which is monolithically SF.) However, the areas that the constituency is losing are predominantly Protestant and the areas it is gaining are predominantly Catholic. |
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Post by johnloony on May 24, 2024 14:46:36 GMT
This MP must surely have the smallest average majority (win or loss) of any MP who has stood in say more than two elections… 53, 4582, 4, -530, 875 and 57, giving an average majority of 1016 across six elections. Does anyone know of any other contenders?? Likewise this must be the closest constituency so far this century, right?? Alan Beith (Liberal, Berwick on Tweed) had majorities of: 1973: 57 1974Feb: 443 1974Oct: 73 but then 1979: 5,688 1983: 8,215 1987: 9,503 1992: 5,043 1997: 8,042 2001: 8,458 2005: 8,632 2010: 2,690 |
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
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Post by Sibboleth on May 24, 2024 15:01:21 GMT
David Heath's average majority across the four elections that he won was 856.7 votes.
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riccimarsh
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Post by riccimarsh on May 24, 2024 16:00:18 GMT
David Heath's average majority across the four elections that he won was 856.7 votes. This forum always delivers… thanks for that. |
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stb12
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Post by stb12 on May 24, 2024 16:09:45 GMT
Jackie Doyle Price in Thurrock had three small majorities 2010, 2015, 2017, but it then shot up to over 11,000 in 2019
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Post by No Offence Alan on May 24, 2024 16:30:56 GMT
Jackie Doyle Price in Thurrock had three small majorities 2010, 2015, 2017, but it then shot up to over 11,000 in 2019 In Somerton and Frome between 1997 and 2010, David Heath had majorities of 130, 668, 812 and 1817. These total less than the number he lost by in 1992 which was 4,341. So over the 5 elections he contested here, he got fewer total votes than the various Conservative candidates, but won 4 times out of 5. Edit: now spotted that Sibboleth beat me to it. |
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Post by markgoodair on May 24, 2024 17:45:12 GMT
Eddie Roofe will be the Alliance party candidate.
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on May 24, 2024 19:18:50 GMT
Councillor in Enniskillen
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Post by markgoodair on May 27, 2024 12:26:14 GMT
Paul Blake is the SDLP candidate.
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on May 27, 2024 13:30:16 GMT
Former councillor for Enniskillen. Failed to be re-elected in 2023, receiving less than half a quota.
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stb12
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Posts: 8,366
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Post by stb12 on May 27, 2024 15:13:42 GMT
Former councillor for Enniskillen. Failed to be re-elected in 2023, receiving less than half a quota. They’re very weak in this constituency now clearly but considering the historical small margins still a chance of costing Sinn Fein the seat |
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Post by timrollpickering on May 27, 2024 19:21:23 GMT
The UUP are opposed to a united Unionist candidate:
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Ports
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Post by Ports on May 29, 2024 10:34:47 GMT
Former Royal College of Nursing General Secretary Pat Cullen is expected to be the Sinn Fein candidate pending a formal announcement.
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mboy
Liberal
Listen. Think. Speak.
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Post by mboy on May 29, 2024 11:25:23 GMT
That figures - explains why she wasn't serious in trying to find a solution to the nurses strikes.
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