Foggy
Non-Aligned
Yn Ennill Yma
Posts: 6,135 
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Post by Foggy on May 29, 2024 16:02:46 GMT
Former Royal College of Nursing General Secretary Pat Cullen is expected to be the Sinn Fein candidate pending a formal announcement. What great credentials for a republican! |
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Post by boondock on May 29, 2024 21:05:03 GMT
DUP not to field a candidate. What a surprise lol
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stb12
Top Poster
Posts: 8,366
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Post by stb12 on May 29, 2024 21:13:16 GMT
DUP not to field a candidate. What a surprise lol Doug Beattie won out by not blinking there Be interesting to see if the UUP run a candidate in Belfast North |
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Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on May 29, 2024 22:15:46 GMT
Now it'll have to be "Nursing College of Northern Ireland" 😜
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,905
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Post by YL on Jun 7, 2024 22:19:49 GMT
Diana Armstrong (UUP)
Paul Blake (SDLP)
Gerry Cullen (Cross Community Labour Alternative)
Pat Cullen (SF)
Carl Duffy (Aontú)
Eddie Roofe (Alliance)
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Post by ntyuk1707 on Jun 16, 2024 22:25:27 GMT
Am I mad in thinking this might actually be a UUP gain?
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Post by johnloony on Jun 16, 2024 22:31:49 GMT
Am I mad in thinking this might actually be a UUP gain? QTWTAIN |
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stb12
Top Poster
Posts: 8,366
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Post by stb12 on Jun 16, 2024 22:37:27 GMT
Am I mad in thinking this might actually be a UUP gain? Probably not, with a free run on the unionist side and other nationalist parties standing then I think it is still a possibility, even if not the most likely outcome |
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Post by ntyuk1707 on Jun 16, 2024 22:56:10 GMT
Am I mad in thinking this might actually be a UUP gain? Probably not, with a free run on the unionist side and other nationalist parties standing then I think it is still a possibility, even if not the most likely outcome Added Sinn Feins dip in the polls, retiring incumbent and slightly better boundaries for unionists. I'm not an expert on NI but inclined towards this being a Uup Gain |
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,905
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Post by YL on Jun 17, 2024 7:15:23 GMT
There seems to be some debate about whether the boundary changes help Unionism or Nationalism. Nicholas Whyte's figures slightly favour Unionists: they increase the notional SF majority over the UUP but they bring in some DUP votes, and those DUP votes would make the difference. However he says himself that a "Unionist friend" of his questions this and thinks that the boundary changes help Nationalists.
I think the differences are small enough that normally they wouldn't matter but with this seat being so tightly balanced they could make all the difference. The candidate list, with no real rivals for the Unionist vote but the SDLP and Aontú standing, does favour the UUP.
Note, however, that SF's result in 2019 was, as elsewhere, fairly poor; if they could recover to 2017 levels I don't think they'd be in any difficulty.
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Post by greenhert on Jun 17, 2024 11:25:46 GMT
Am I mad in thinking this might actually be a UUP gain? Not at all, even accounting for boundary changes notionally favouring SF-this is one of the Alliance Party's weakest seats and the SDLP vote can only be squeezed so far; furthermore Aontu will win over a fair few socially conservative Catholics who would otherwise be inclined to vote SF. |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Jun 17, 2024 11:27:47 GMT
I think we should sell Northern Ireland to the Republic of Ireland and have done with all of this crap to be honest.
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john07
Labour & Co-operative
Posts: 15,774
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Post by john07 on Jun 17, 2024 14:14:15 GMT
I think we should sell Northern Ireland to the Republic of Ireland and have done with all of this crap to be honest. If truth be known, they wouldn't want Northern Ireland. |
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Post by rcronald on Jun 17, 2024 14:30:09 GMT
I think we should sell Northern Ireland to the Republic of Ireland and have done with all of this crap to be honest. If truth be known, they wouldn't want Northern Ireland. except for using the NHS… |
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Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on Jun 17, 2024 14:30:40 GMT
I think we should sell Northern Ireland to the Republic of Ireland and have done with all of this crap to be honest. If truth be known, they wouldn't want Northern Ireland. Maybe start small. Give NI Donegal and take Fermanagh, say, do it in installments, it's not like Irish history has moved quickly before* *Tongue only partly in cheek. |
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right
Conservative
Posts: 18,762
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Post by right on Jun 17, 2024 14:48:16 GMT
If truth be known, they wouldn't want Northern Ireland. Maybe start small. Give NI Donegal and take Fermanagh, say, do it in installments, it's not like Irish history has moved quickly before* *Tongue only partly in cheek. Repartition isn't a bad idea and variants have been floated since the creation of Northern Ireland, but the IRA and the Irish lobby in the states wouldn't wear it. Not sure Whitehall wants it either, they want rid of NI and repartition could mean rump NI being with us forever Unionism missed its main chance by sabotaging the boundary commission in the 1920s. |
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right
Conservative
Posts: 18,762
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Post by right on Jun 17, 2024 14:50:27 GMT
I think we should sell Northern Ireland to the Republic of Ireland and have done with all of this crap to be honest. If truth be known, they wouldn't want Northern Ireland. They can't admit it to their electorate. Varadkar didn't believe the inflammatory stuff he says on NI, it's voter led demand. |
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Post by finsobruce on Jun 17, 2024 15:41:06 GMT
If truth be known, they wouldn't want Northern Ireland. They can't admit it to their electorate. Varadkar didn't believe the inflammatory stuff he says on NI, it's voter led demand. It might just be the way he puts things over in general , but I agree that he didn't strike me as believing it or really having any interest. |
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right
Conservative
Posts: 18,762
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Post by right on Jun 17, 2024 15:49:06 GMT
They can't admit it to their electorate. Varadkar didn't believe the inflammatory stuff he says on NI, it's voter led demand. It might just be the way he puts things over in general , but I agree that he didn't strike me as believing it or really having any interest. But the Irish population if not exactly having an interest, do see it as a wound and will vote in North Korean (or at the least Putinesque) margins when the subject comes up |
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myth11
Non-Aligned
too busy at work!
Posts: 2,839
Member is Online
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Post by myth11 on Jun 17, 2024 19:47:42 GMT
It might just be the way he puts things over in general , but I agree that he didn't strike me as believing it or really having any interest. But the Irish population if not exactly having an interest, do see it as a wound and will vote in North Korean (or at the least Putinesque) margins when the subject comes up But I don’t think they will give NI special treatment with the assembly likely the first thing to go. |
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