stb12
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Post by stb12 on Jun 26, 2024 18:07:13 GMT
Hard to see them getting it back though. SDLP have been struggling here ever since retirement of Tommy Gallagher. SF have always been pre-dominant here basically since the death of Frank Maguire. With Sinn Fein having three seats it’s not impossible if they drop back a bit and get the vote balancing wrong one year, but agreed it’s a tough one |
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CatholicLeft
Labour
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Post by CatholicLeft on Jun 27, 2024 23:12:27 GMT
SF have a good candidate here and will retain Gildernew's seat. Not totally convinced - I think she has dropped the ball in refusing to condemn the Omagh and Enniskillen bombings. Both Gerry Adams and Martin McGuinness condemned the former and the IRA leadership apologized for the latter. For the leader of the main Nurses' Union to fail to simply agree with the official position from the SF leadership when they condemned the killing of so many people, including children (including toddlers) and a pregnant mother of twins, I find utterly baffling. Alliance polled quite well here in 2019, the SDLP has been rebuilding its vote base, though Adam Gannon is not the candidate this time. In the absence of Michelle Gildernew, I would have made the UUP reasonable favourites if Tom Elliott had stood again, but Diane Armstrong will put up a strong challenge, being former chair of Fermanagh and Omagh Council and from a known UUP family (Harry West's daughter) . |
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Post by ntyuk1707 on Jun 28, 2024 22:05:12 GMT
SF have a good candidate here and will retain Gildernew's seat. Not totally convinced - I think she has dropped the ball in refusing to condemn the Omagh and Enniskillen bombings. Both Gerry Adams and Martin McGuinness condemned the former and the IRA leadership apologized for the latter. For the leader of the main Nurses' Union to fail to simply agree with the official position from the SF leadership when they condemned the killing of so many people, including children (including toddlers) and a pregnant mother of twins, I find utterly baffling. Alliance polled quite well here in 2019, the SDLP has been rebuilding its vote base, though Adam Gannon is not the candidate this time. In the absence of Michelle Gildernew, I would have made the UUP reasonable favourites if Tom Elliott had stood again, but Diane Armstrong will put up a strong challenge, being former chair of Fermanagh and Omagh Council and from a known UUP family (Harry West's daughter) . I agree with this and based on current polling this is certainly the most interesting contest in Northern Ireland. Aontu and the SDLP could siphon enough votes from Sinn Fein to lose them this constituency. |
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Post by irish observer on Jul 3, 2024 17:27:57 GMT
This is the one seat that Sinn Féin have to worry about. This was where the Armalite & Ballot-box strategy commenced basically here which eventually created the SF electoral machine. This was further honed based on the Torrent Strategy in the neighbouring Mid-Ulster constituency, a DEA which covers areas like Coalisland etc.
A loss here of Gildernew's seat after her failure to retain the outgoing SF seat in the Ireland MNW constituency would be looked unfavourably by many in the ROI media especially and SF electoral opponents despite their 2 MEP seat gains and a likely good day at the office tomorrow.
I would expect alot of media to go to Tyrone as I expect 3 counts to be held in Omagh as per usual with 4 in Belfast, 2 in Derry and 1-3 in Newry/Armagh or Lisburn area.
Its tight Michelle once famously held on by 4. I still think SF can do it but think it could be as tight a margin as less than 300 votes.
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Jul 4, 2024 9:10:21 GMT
This is the one seat that Sinn Féin have to worry about. This was where the Armalite & Ballot-box strategy commenced basically here which eventually created the SF electoral machine. This was further honed based on the Torrent Strategy in the neighbouring Mid-Ulster constituency, a DEA which covers areas like Coalisland etc. A loss here of Gildernew's seat after her failure to retain the outgoing SF seat in the Ireland MNW constituency would be looked unfavourably by many in the ROI media especially and SF electoral opponents despite their 2 MEP seat gains and a likely good day at the office tomorrow. I would expect alot of media to go to Tyrone as I expect 3 counts to be held in Omagh as per usual with 4 in Belfast, 2 in Derry and 1-3 in Newry/Armagh or Lisburn area. Its tight Michelle once famously held on by 4. I still think SF can do it but think it could be as tight a margin as less than 300 votes. No, there are only three count locations this time. The Belfast seats, North Down and Strangford are counting in Belfast. Lagan Valley, Newry & Armagh, Upper Bann and South Down are counting in Craigavon. Everything else is being counted in Magherafelt. www.eoni.org.uk/Elections/Election-results-and-statistics/Elections-2024 |
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Post by gamblingguru on Jul 4, 2024 20:06:01 GMT
Another one to watch. I have had a small play at 4/1 on UUP but not that confident with boundary changes around Dungannon helping SF here and the unionist vote having little room to grow.
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myth11
Non-Aligned
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Post by myth11 on Jul 4, 2024 20:07:37 GMT
I am thinking sf by 4 to 5k.
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Post by therealriga on Jul 4, 2024 23:11:52 GMT
Suggestions that turnout has been down in traditional republican areas which is bad for Sinn Féin. I'd be surprised if they win by anything near 5k and it's definitely in play for the UUP if they've managed to get their vote out.
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jamie
Top Poster
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Post by jamie on Jul 5, 2024 0:26:05 GMT
Suggestions that turnout has been down in traditional republican areas which is bad for Sinn Féin. I'd be surprised if they win by anything near 5k and it's definitely in play for the UUP if they've managed to get their vote out. FWIW there were reports that the other unionist parties weren’t doing much to get their supporters out for the UUP despite ‘unionist unity’. |
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Post by uthacalthing on Jul 5, 2024 0:54:51 GMT
It could be comedy if the IRA forget to get the recently deceased out
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Post by therealriga on Jul 5, 2024 4:12:21 GMT
Rumours of a close contest turn out to be false, SF hold by 4,571 which is as comfortable as it ever gets in that part of the world.
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stb12
Top Poster
Posts: 8,366
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Post by stb12 on Jul 5, 2024 4:15:09 GMT
Rumours of a close contest turn out to be false, SF hold by 4,571 which is as comfortable as it ever gets in that part of the world. Indeed, might finally be out of reach for unionists now |
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Post by therealriga on Jul 5, 2024 4:21:41 GMT
Rumours of a close contest turn out to be false, SF hold by 4,571 which is as comfortable as it ever gets in that part of the world. Indeed, might finally be out of reach for unionists now Looks that way. Belfast North too looks to be out of the marginal column and into safe SF. |
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Post by Cú Chulainn on Jul 5, 2024 5:04:42 GMT
Unionism playing their favourite game of atrocity bingo and the condemnation game abetted by the biggest sectarian show in the “country” attempting to drag Pat Cullen into Nolan’s gutter. A story that gained 24 hours of actual traction. Unionism is maxed out in the west, game over.
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Post by uthacalthing on Jul 5, 2024 19:03:11 GMT
Unionism is maxed out in the west, game over. Indeed, but happily they are still all British subjects |
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Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
What I need is a strong drink and a peer group.
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Post by Chris from Brum on Jul 5, 2024 20:11:35 GMT
Unionism is maxed out in the west, game over. Indeed, but happily they are still all British subjects We're all citizens now, not subjects, Boogs, and have been for quite a few years. |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Jul 5, 2024 20:35:27 GMT
Citizenship over here fundamentally works on a Don't Ask Don't Tell basis.
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Post by uthacalthing on Jul 6, 2024 10:49:04 GMT
Indeed, but happily they are still all British subjects We're all citizens now, not subjects, Boogs, and have been for quite a few years. Brexit is a process, not an event. |
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Post by irish observer on Jul 6, 2024 15:23:07 GMT
I am thinking sf by 4 to 5k. Kudos on the strength of your analysis here. I'm not sure whether the UUP leaking of Armstrong's prospects on BBC was actually poor tallying or actual SF tallymen taking the proverbial piss especially the link to Harry West but the dreary steeples are a lot drearier for a Unionist perspective now. |
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