stb12
Top Poster
Posts: 8,366 
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Post by stb12 on Mar 14, 2024 2:40:07 GMT
East Londonderry
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myth11
Non-Aligned
too busy at work!
Posts: 2,839
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Post by myth11 on Mar 27, 2024 19:17:20 GMT
This is the seat I am watching as there is a smallish chance a divided unionist vote and a united nationalist one could make this seat close.
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Mar 29, 2024 15:27:01 GMT
The combined Nationalist score was 36.35% in the Assembly elections, whilst the DUP alone got 26.91% and other unionist candidates got 23.66%. I'm sceptical that this seat will see either a united nationalist vote or a divided unionist one but even if that does happen then it might not be enough.
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Post by boondock on Mar 29, 2024 16:55:27 GMT
Nationalist turnout is usually quite low here. SF and SDLP are also quite evenly split so a nationalist win is very unlikely
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stb12
Top Poster
Posts: 8,366
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Post by stb12 on Mar 29, 2024 16:59:41 GMT
Gregory Campbell also seems to be going down a more pragmatic route these days so may not be as liable to losing votes of more moderate unionists and middle ground people
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Post by batman on Mar 29, 2024 17:08:52 GMT
So, you don't think he'll be out on his London derriere?
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nyx
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Posts: 1,025
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Post by nyx on Mar 29, 2024 18:00:07 GMT
Agreed that Campbell probably isn't in much danger. If it did flip, it'd have to be a very narrow thing and probably requires the TUV to stand and Aontu to give it a miss this time. Something like SF 28%, DUP 27%, Alliance 14%, UUP 13%, TUV 12%, SDLP 6%.
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Mar 31, 2024 19:59:33 GMT
For what little it's worth, if you take this seat as being equivalent to the DEAs of Bann, Benbradagh, Causeway, Coleraine, Faughan and Limavady (in fact a couple of wards in Causeway and Faughan aren't included, so this probably flatters unionists somewhat) then the result in May 2023 was as follows:
SF 27.1%
DUP 26.6%
UUP 13.1%
Alliance 9.8%
SDLP 7.3%
With everybody else at deposit-losing levels. The overall first-preference vote still had a plurality backing unionist candidates, and that was with an election where SF turnout was particularly energised and unionist turnout was not.
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Post by uthacalthing on Mar 31, 2024 20:48:16 GMT
At what point does Norn Iron become mature enough that the electorate no longer regards tactical voting on sectarian lines as more important than what they actually want?
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Mar 31, 2024 21:01:43 GMT
At what point does Norn Iron become mature enough that the electorate no longer regards tactical voting on sectarian lines as more important than what they actually want? There have been cross-community tactical votes before - Unionists backing the SDLP in Belfast West, Nationalists backing moderate Unionists in North Down. |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Apr 1, 2024 20:03:52 GMT
If there's one thing we've learned from the last four centuries (and that is a very generous estimate for the number of things learned in Northern Irish politics), it's that voting on sectarian lines is what the electorate wants.
In any case, if your politics stretches beyond the sectarian, it's not like the parties are offering anything very radically different from one another. All the parties agree that the UK doesn't provide enough funding to Northern Ireland, but that Northern Ireland should not raise any more money itself nor consider whether it could spend its money more efficiently. To the extent there is an ideological cleavage, it's that Alliance say we should do whatever the civil servants and their consultants want; whereas Sinn Fein and the DUP say we should do whatever the civil servants want unless it's locally slightly unpopular, in which case we should change nothing.
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Post by markgoodair on May 23, 2024 20:07:02 GMT
Richard Stewart is the Alliance Party candidate.
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on May 23, 2024 20:51:55 GMT
Councillor for Causeway DEA, about two-thirds of which is in this seat.
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Jun 3, 2024 8:54:29 GMT
This is one of the constituencies in Northern Ireland where the Conservatives are standing a candidate - Claire Scull.
Last I checked, their Twitter feed was mostly complaining about nationalists referring to County Derry, so I think we can take them even less seriously than you would a stereotypical Conservative candidate in NI.
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right
Conservative
Posts: 18,761
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Post by right on Jun 3, 2024 9:37:04 GMT
At what point does Norn Iron become mature enough that the electorate no longer regards tactical voting on sectarian lines as more important than what they actually want? When they're part of a United Ireland. Maybe. That's what an ethnically divided democracy looks like. It's why the democratic nation state works so much better than the alternatives. |
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,905
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Post by YL on Jun 7, 2024 22:18:13 GMT
Gemma Brolly (Aontú)
Gregory Campbell (DUP)
Cara Hunter (SDLP)
Allister Kyle (TUV)
Jen McCahon (Green)
Kathleen McGurk (SF)
Glen Miller (UUP)
Claire Scull (Con)
Richard Stewart (Alliance)
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Post by 🏴☠️ Neath West 🏴☠️ on Jun 7, 2024 22:50:10 GMT
Gemma Brolly (Aontú) Gregory Campbell (DUP) Cara Hunter (SDLP) Allister Kyle (TUV) Jen McCahon (Green) Kathleen McGurk (SF) Glen Miller (UUP) Claire Scull (Con) Richard Stewart (Alliance) Honestly, standing a Conservative candidate in places where Unionists are likely to win... I'd much rather see a Conservative candidate in Belfast West to draw faithful Roman Catholics away from political parties that do not reflect their social values. |
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,905
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Post by YL on Jun 7, 2024 22:56:50 GMT
Gemma Brolly (Aontú) Gregory Campbell (DUP) Cara Hunter (SDLP) Allister Kyle (TUV) Jen McCahon (Green) Kathleen McGurk (SF) Glen Miller (UUP) Claire Scull (Con) Richard Stewart (Alliance) Honestly, standing a Conservative candidate in places where Unionists are likely to win... I'd much rather see a Conservative candidate in Belfast West to draw faithful Roman Catholics away from political parties that do not reflect their social values. LOL |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Jun 9, 2024 18:01:29 GMT
Gemma Brolly (Aontú) Gregory Campbell (DUP) Cara Hunter (SDLP) Allister Kyle (TUV) Jen McCahon (Green) Kathleen McGurk (SF) Glen Miller (UUP) Claire Scull (Con) Richard Stewart (Alliance) Honestly, standing a Conservative candidate in places where Unionists are likely to win... I'd much rather see a Conservative candidate in Belfast West to draw faithful Roman Catholics away from political parties that do not reflect their social values. The candidate appears to have moved from England to Northern Ireland in the past couple of years and to live locally. I'm not convinced it matters where they want to get fewer than 500 votes. (Although it's worth pointing out that when they stood in both seats in 2015, the Tories got 422 votes in East Derry and 34 votes in Belfast West, probably because there is essentially no crossover between potential Aontu voters and potential NI Conservative voters.) |
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nyx
Non-Aligned
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Post by nyx on Jun 9, 2024 18:24:13 GMT
Honestly, standing a Conservative candidate in places where Unionists are likely to win... I'd much rather see a Conservative candidate in Belfast West to draw faithful Roman Catholics away from political parties that do not reflect their social values. Aontú is standing in Belfast West and appeals to such voters' social values as well as their national identity. |
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