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Post by irish observer on Jul 7, 2024 22:57:20 GMT
Cara Hunter has been the victim of some pretty horrible online abuse for having stood here She suffers some horrendous online abuse generally. SDLP were always the pre eminent nationalist grouping when I lived here but that was 20 years ago I left. I will need to check the constituency boundaries Dallat & Doherty both long-established Cllrs got elected in '98 which in effect was the zenith of SDLP dominance where they even elected Danny O'Connor in East Antrim, a decent guy who had suffered awful sectarian abuse in Larne and got 2 elected in West Tyrone. Martin Morgan almost made it in North Belfast bar for transfers and would have made it 3 Nationalists elected. As far as I remember Doherty retired and Dallat continued while SDLP lost the 2nd seat to SF and then managed to eek out a second seat out of 5, with Hunter now in effect Dallat's successor. SF never contested Coleraine at all until about 5-7 years ago at Council level and SDLP used nearly be the largest party in old Limavady. This was exponential growth based on SF's Greening of the West project which has in effect been repeated in all border Counties of the Republic and some other Counties with large urban bases to exploit in other ROI counties. The data demonstrates it. Data doesn't lie. I do data analysis as a statistician. |
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seanf
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Post by seanf on Jul 9, 2024 11:05:58 GMT
Demographic shifts probably mean FST/North Belfast have permanently become safe nationalist seats whilst East Londonderry has taken their spot in the "marginal" category. I think it's less demographic shifts and more differential turnout patterns. There hasn't been that much new housing in recent years in the west of the seat and Coleraine, Portrush and Portstewart are as unionist as ever. Based on the 2022 Assembly elections, this should have been a fairly straightforward Unionist hold (50.6% Unionist, to 37.1% Nationalist). Turnout dropped from 60% to 55% with 3,000 Unionist voters from 2022 not voting in 2024. Maybe that's due to Campbell being an unpopular MP, and/or complacency. I can't imagine that the balance of the population has shifted so sharply in two years. |
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stb12
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Post by stb12 on Jul 9, 2024 11:41:58 GMT
I think it's less demographic shifts and more differential turnout patterns. There hasn't been that much new housing in recent years in the west of the seat and Coleraine, Portrush and Portstewart are as unionist as ever. Based on the 2022 Assembly elections, this should have been a fairly straightforward Unionist hold (50.6% Unionist, to 37.1% Nationalist). Turnout dropped from 60% to 55% with 3,000 Unionist voters from 2022 not voting in 2024. Maybe that's due to Campbell being an unpopular MP, and/or complacency. I can't imagine that the balance of the population has shifted so sharply in two years. I didn’t see this coming but I did wonder if Campbell might suffer from the TUV and they did get 10% which no doubt helped this end up so close. While he has a reputation as a hardline unionist he was one of the strongest supporters of the Donaldson deal to go back into the Assembly executive which Jim Allister has relentlessly targeted the DUP over I agree with the point that it seems a bit early to call this the new F&ST but by the next election there will be a lot of discussion of vote splitting after this |
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stb12
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Post by stb12 on Jul 9, 2024 11:49:13 GMT
Also worth noting in the last three Assembly elections EL has comfortably elected Claire Sugden who is definitely a moderate independent unionist, that may be part of the unionist demographic who you could see staying at home for a contest like this
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CatholicLeft
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Post by CatholicLeft on Jul 11, 2024 19:41:04 GMT
To be fairer to Campbell than he deservs, Derry was never very heavily gerrymandered. The issue wasn't the boundaries*, it was the existence of the business vote and the wildly unfair qalifying grounds to be an elector. *OK, the Fountain wasn't the most obvious area to add in to the old North ward, but it wasn't an absurd addition. I'd describe the lines as mildly gerrymandered and the point stands that it was elements besides the lines where the thumbs were really on the scale. The very creation of Derry and its separation from Donegal was the ultimate Plantation gerrymander. If you expressed your view to my my cousins, they would still offer you a cup of tea, check you had been fed, but do so with a look of suppressed disappointment. |
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nyx
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Post by nyx on Jul 15, 2024 0:25:39 GMT
Demographic shifts probably mean FST/North Belfast have permanently become safe nationalist seats whilst East Londonderry has taken their spot in the "marginal" category. I think it's less demographic shifts and more differential turnout patterns. There hasn't been that much new housing in recent years in the west of the seat and Coleraine, Portrush and Portstewart are as unionist as ever. There are two significant demographic shifts- Catholic birth rates being higher than Protestant ones, and younger members of Protestant families increasingly identifying with irreligion and losing their ties to traditional Unionism. These slowly but steadily have an effect even without new housing. |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Jul 16, 2024 13:20:37 GMT
To be fairer to Campbell than he deservs, Derry was never very heavily gerrymandered. The issue wasn't the boundaries*, it was the existence of the business vote and the wildly unfair qalifying grounds to be an elector. *OK, the Fountain wasn't the most obvious area to add in to the old North ward, but it wasn't an absurd addition. I'd describe the lines as mildly gerrymandered and the point stands that it was elements besides the lines where the thumbs were really on the scale. The very creation of Derry and its separation from Donegal was the ultimate Plantation gerrymander. If you expressed your view to my my cousins, they would still offer you a cup of tea, check you had been fed, but do so with a look of suppressed disappointment. Gerrymander has a specific meaning, of drawing electoral boundaries for advantage. County Derry is an artificial creation which doesn't match up to local perceptions of natural geography, but it wasn't drawn for electoral purposes, because it wasn't intended for democratic means at all. Similarly, elections in Derry for a very long time did not reflect the consensus political position of the majority of residents of the town. But again, this wasn't primarily done by drawing advantageous lines for unionists - it was a part of the picture, but not as important as malapportionment, unfair electoral laws and a culture of intimidation. |
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