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Post by irish observer on Jun 18, 2024 13:46:55 GMT
Cara Hunter is possibly one of the most beautiful candidates running in this election. Also subjected to a campaign of harrassment. She may prevent SF encroaching on taking over the nationalist vote which is still split here. A good candidate.
Campbell will retain the last Unionist seat west of the Bann.
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Post by finsobruce on Jun 18, 2024 13:48:39 GMT
Cara Hunter is possibly one of the most beautiful candidates running in this election. Also subjected to a campaign of harrassment. She may prevent SF encroaching on taking over the nationalist vote which is still split here. A good candidate. Campbell will retain the last Unionist seat west of the Bann. Apparently the winner of Miss Intercontinental 2017, not a competition i was previously aware of. |
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stb12
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Post by stb12 on Jun 18, 2024 14:13:46 GMT
Cara Hunter is possibly one of the most beautiful candidates running in this election. Also subjected to a campaign of harrassment. She may prevent SF encroaching on taking over the nationalist vote which is still split here. A good candidate. Campbell will retain the last Unionist seat west of the Bann. Sorcha Eastwood for Alliance in Lagan Valley is also easy on the eye |
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CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
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Post by CatholicLeft on Jun 22, 2024 20:24:54 GMT
Gemma Brolly (Aontú) Gregory Campbell (DUP) Cara Hunter (SDLP) Allister Kyle (TUV) Jen McCahon (Green) Kathleen McGurk (SF) Glen Miller (UUP) Claire Scull (Con) Richard Stewart (Alliance) Honestly, standing a Conservative candidate in places where Unionists are likely to win... I'd much rather see a Conservative candidate in Belfast West to draw faithful Roman Catholics away from political parties that do not reflect their social values. After being full on for the Republic's Local and European elections, I haven't paid much attention to Northern Ireland till now. This post cheers me up as it shows a total lack of understanding of this constituency's make-up. Not intending to be offensive. As has been pointed out, Aontu's Gemma Brolly is most likely to appeal to working class socially-conservative voters. |
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obsie
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Post by obsie on Jun 23, 2024 5:19:11 GMT
Honestly, standing a Conservative candidate in places where Unionists are likely to win... I'd much rather see a Conservative candidate in Belfast West to draw faithful Roman Catholics away from political parties that do not reflect their social values. After being full on for the Republic's Local and European elections, I haven't paid much attention to Northern Ireland till now. This post cheers me up as it shows a total lack of understanding of this constituency's make-up. Not intending to be offensive. As has been pointed out, Aontu's Gerard Herdman is most likely to appeal to working class socially-conservative voters. r/this constituency's make-up/(Northern) Irish politics in general |
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CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
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Post by CatholicLeft on Jun 28, 2024 0:08:19 GMT
Some pundits are beginning to write off Gregory Campbell in this election, but I doubt this makes sense. The Unionist community in this constituency are more hardline than in other areas, and Mr. Campbell reflects this; the TUV standing football fan, Allister Kyle, here is therefore somewhat performative (although, in my love of elections, the more the merrier).
Somewhat fevered speculation that the combined Nationalist/Republican vote can come through the middle of a split Unionist/Loyalist vote is not very likely - the SDLP's Cara Hunter is a local MLA who outpolled SF in 2019 and is likely to hang on to a chunk of the vote.
Alliance have Councillor Richard Stewart standing this time, so I am not sure of his popularity - Chris McCaw polled very well in 2019.
For Aontu, we have Gemma Brolly, the party's deputy leader. In 2019, Dr Seán McNicholl (on whom my nieces acquired a ridiculous crush) polled decently for a new party with 4.4% of the vote. He has disappeared from politics (he got married, good choice). At the Assembly elections, she polled 2.5% of the FPV, but former SDLP cllr, Stephanie Quigley, who shares pretty much the same political views, polled 3.4%. So Aontu may poll better.
Glen Miller of the UUP is likely to go the way of his namesake.
I have no idea of any history of the Green Party hereabouts, either in local, Assembly or General elections, but Jen McCahon is planting a flag at this election.
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stb12
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Post by stb12 on Jun 28, 2024 5:13:24 GMT
Some pundits are beginning to write off Gregory Campbell in this election, but I doubt this makes sense. The Unionist community in this constituency are more hardline than in other areas, and Mr. Campbell reflects this; the TUV standing football fan, Allister Kyle, here is therefore somewhat performative (although, in my love of elections, the more the merrier). Somewhat fevered speculation that the combined Nationalist/Republican vote can come through the middle of a split Unionist/Loyalist vote is not very likely - the SDLP's Cara Hunter is a local MLA who outpolled SF in 2019 and is likely to hang on to a chunk of the vote. Alliance have Councillor Richard Stewart standing this time, so I am not sue of his popularity - Chris McCaw polled very well in 2019. For Aontu, we have Gemma Brolly, the party's deputy leader. In 2019, Dr Seán McNicholl (om whom my nieces acquired a ridiculous crush) polled decently for a new party with 4.4% of the vote. He has disappeared from politics (he got married, good choice). At the Assembly elections, she polled 2.5% of the FPV, but former SDLP cllr, Stephanie Quigley, who shares pretty much the same political views, polled 3.4%.So Aontu may poll better. Glen Miller of the UUP is likely to go the way of his namesake. I have no idea of any history of the Green Party hereabouts, either in local, Assembly or General elections, but Jen McCahon is planting a flag at this election. This is one unionist seat in the NI section I’ve not put up a poll for because I don’t see how Gregory Campbell can lose, if it happens guess I’ll need to eat humble pie! |
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CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
Posts: 6,712
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Post by CatholicLeft on Jul 1, 2024 21:37:19 GMT
Some pundits are beginning to write off Gregory Campbell in this election, but I doubt this makes sense. The Unionist community in this constituency are more hardline than in other areas, and Mr. Campbell reflects this; the TUV standing football fan, Allister Kyle, here is therefore somewhat performative (although, in my love of elections, the more the merrier). Somewhat fevered speculation that the combined Nationalist/Republican vote can come through the middle of a split Unionist/Loyalist vote is not very likely - the SDLP's Cara Hunter is a local MLA who outpolled SF in 2019 and is likely to hang on to a chunk of the vote. Alliance have Councillor Richard Stewart standing this time, so I am not sue of his popularity - Chris McCaw polled very well in 2019. For Aontu, we have Gemma Brolly, the party's deputy leader. In 2019, Dr Seán McNicholl (om whom my nieces acquired a ridiculous crush) polled decently for a new party with 4.4% of the vote. He has disappeared from politics (he got married, good choice). At the Assembly elections, she polled 2.5% of the FPV, but former SDLP cllr, Stephanie Quigley, who shares pretty much the same political views, polled 3.4%.So Aontu may poll better. Glen Miller of the UUP is likely to go the way of his namesake. I have no idea of any history of the Green Party hereabouts, either in local, Assembly or General elections, but Jen McCahon is planting a flag at this election. This is one seat in NI thread I’ve not put up a poll for because I don’t see how Gregory Campbell can lose, if it happens guess I’ll need to eat humble pie! I have a cracking method for hot water crust pastry for the pie. |
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stb12
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Post by stb12 on Jul 1, 2024 21:46:35 GMT
This is one seat in NI thread I’ve not put up a poll for because I don’t see how Gregory Campbell can lose, if it happens guess I’ll need to eat humble pie! I have a cracking method for hot water crust pastry for the pie. Think I’d had a bit of a long night drinking when I posted this as I forgot I had done  I believe I’ve done a poll for every other DUP seat but I just don’t see how this can be lost without a real perfect storm of a split vote and there’s also still a significant SDLP vote that Sinn Fein would need to totally squeeze. The only possible issue for Campbell and the TUV is that he did back the protocol deal to go back into Stormont even if he is traditionally hardline |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jul 1, 2024 22:54:31 GMT
This is one seat in NI thread I’ve not put up a poll for because I don’t see how Gregory Campbell can lose, if it happens guess I’ll need to eat humble pie! I have a cracking method for hot water crust pastry for the pie. That would be for a Scotch-Irish pie then? |
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CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
Posts: 6,712
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Post by CatholicLeft on Jul 1, 2024 23:26:57 GMT
I have a cracking method for hot water crust pastry for the pie. That would be for a Scotch-Irish pie then? You have crossed so many boundaries, caused so much dissension, upset so many apple-carts, with that remark. But, basically, yes. |
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stb12
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Post by stb12 on Jul 5, 2024 4:22:18 GMT
Apparently in recount territory here
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Post by therealriga on Jul 5, 2024 4:38:34 GMT
Allegedly the DUP may just about hold on, but they won't be happy at another previously safe seat now moving to within range for nationalists/SF.
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stb12
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Post by stb12 on Jul 5, 2024 4:42:39 GMT
Allegedly the DUP may just about hold on, but they won't be happy at another previously safe seat now moving to within range for nationalists/SF. Has there been a Sinn Fein surge or has the unionist vote just split badly? |
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Post by therealriga on Jul 5, 2024 4:49:23 GMT
Allegedly the DUP may just about hold on, but they won't be happy at another previously safe seat now moving to within range for nationalists/SF. Has there been a Sinn Fein surge or has the unionist vote just split badly? Looks more like a Sinn Féin surge: increased majorities in their 2 marginals, close here and significantly reduced the SDLP majority in Foyle. |
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Post by Cú Chulainn on Jul 5, 2024 5:37:18 GMT
Full recount called, a bundle of Sinn Féin votes have been found. Only a couple of hundred votes in it apparently
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jul 5, 2024 6:57:18 GMT
The Unionists need to stop fucking about in seats like this
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Post by rcronald on Jul 5, 2024 6:58:29 GMT
The Unionists need to stop fucking about in seats like this Did Campbell survive? |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jul 5, 2024 6:59:35 GMT
The Unionists need to stop fucking about in seats like this Did Campbell survive? By less tha 200 |
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Post by rcronald on Jul 5, 2024 7:03:23 GMT
Now that the other unionist parties have some seats of their own, can the please fuck off the ones the DUP already holds? |
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