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Post by Cú Chulainn on Jul 5, 2024 7:31:04 GMT
The Unionists need to stop fucking about in seats like this I would suggest the opposite is required, a lot more babies needed to prevent this becoming the next FST/North Belfast |
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Post by rcronald on Jul 5, 2024 7:34:00 GMT
Unionist: 47.3%
Nationalist: 42.6%
Other: 10.1%
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Jul 5, 2024 8:02:20 GMT
Amazing this ended up being so close, given that there was little evidence of a SF campaign (we only got an extremely perfunctory freepost from them, in what should be one of the strongest bits of the seat for them.) Then again, Campbell's campaign also wasn't particularly visible in unionist areas near me - I assumed it was mostly just the TUV being enthusiastic about sticking up posters and the DUP concentrating on delivering leaflets, but evidently it did indicate enthusiasm on that side.
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Post by johnloony on Jul 5, 2024 8:59:57 GMT
Since I got home I have been skimming through the map and looking at a few dozen interesting or unusual results. It's almost 10 am and I've only just noticed that Sinn Fein get very close to winning an 8th seat.
There are also a lot of seats with low percentages for the winning candidate - quite a few below 30%. I'm too tired at the moment to do a definitive list of low percentages, or of three-way-marginals; no doubt others will do that in the next few days.
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stb12
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Post by stb12 on Jul 5, 2024 11:16:28 GMT
Has there been a Sinn Fein surge or has the unionist vote just split badly? Looks more like a Sinn Féin surge: increased majorities in their 2 marginals, close here and significantly reduced the SDLP majority in Foyle. Although I see TUV got over 10% which was no doubt damaging, a three way split unionist vote seems to dangerous for them here now |
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myth11
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Post by myth11 on Jul 5, 2024 15:00:09 GMT
This is the seat I am watching as there is a smallish chance a divided unionist vote and a united nationalist one could make this seat close. I should have more faith in myself but I don’t. |
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Post by irish observer on Jul 5, 2024 16:46:57 GMT
This is the seat I am watching as there is a smallish chance a divided unionist vote and a united nationalist one could make this seat close. I should have more faith in myself but I don’t. Fair play to you for your analysis here. The previous proposals to change this Constituency boundary to Glenshane I felt could have finished Campbell. Never liked him. Has always basically denied that Derry was ever gerrymandered and slags off the Irish language happily. Got a real surprise here that it was so close in the end in a seat that combined Nationalists used poll c.33% in around '98. Maybe next time he'll retire. |
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stb12
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Post by stb12 on Jul 5, 2024 16:51:01 GMT
I should have more faith in myself but I don’t. Fair play to you for your analysis here. The previous proposals to change this Constituency boundary to Glenshane I felt could have finished Campbell. Never liked him. Has always basically denied that Derry was ever gerrymandered and slags off the Irish language happily. Got a real surprise here that it was so close in the end in a seat that combined Nationalists used poll c.33% in around '98. Maybe next time he'll retire. Either that or he’ll put a heavy amount of pressure on the TUV to not stand here again |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Jul 5, 2024 20:44:30 GMT
To be fairer to Campbell than he deservs, Derry was never very heavily gerrymandered. The issue wasn't the boundaries*, it was the existence of the business vote and the wildly unfair qalifying grounds to be an elector.
*OK, the Fountain wasn't the most obvious area to add in to the old North ward, but it wasn't an absurd addition. I'd describe the lines as mildly gerrymandered and the point stands that it was elements besides the lines where the thumbs were really on the scale.
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john07
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Post by john07 on Jul 5, 2024 22:23:05 GMT
To be fairer to Campbell than he deservs, Derry was never very heavily gerrymandered. The issue wasn't the boundaries*, it was the existence of the business vote and the wildly unfair qalifying grounds to be an elector. *OK, the Fountain wasn't the most obvious area to add in to the old North ward, but it wasn't an absurd addition. I'd describe the lines as mildly gerrymandered and the point stands that it was elements besides the lines where the thumbs were really on the scale. Derry hardly Gerrymandered? In 1966, Derry had three wards: South Ward (8 seats, 11,185 voters), North Ward (8 seats, 6,476 voters), and Waterside Ward (4 seats, 5,549 voters). Ostensibly it looks that the North Ward was somewhat overrepresented. However, the South Ward was 90% Catholic, the North Ward 40% Catholic, and Waterside 34% Catholic. The Protestant voters constituted a potential 38% of the vote yet could win 60% of the seats. It’s a mixture of Gerrymandering and some malapportionment |
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obsie
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Post by obsie on Jul 6, 2024 15:19:45 GMT
To be fairer to Campbell than he deservs, Derry was never very heavily gerrymandered. The issue wasn't the boundaries*, it was the existence of the business vote and the wildly unfair qalifying grounds to be an elector. *OK, the Fountain wasn't the most obvious area to add in to the old North ward, but it wasn't an absurd addition. I'd describe the lines as mildly gerrymandered and the point stands that it was elements besides the lines where the thumbs were really on the scale. It was classic pack-and-crack gerrymandering combined with a refusal to build houses for themmuns anywhere except the existing votesink or outside the city limits altogether (Springtown). |
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Post by irish observer on Jul 6, 2024 15:26:33 GMT
The late Robert Key did a history series on the BBC to even highlight the gerrymandering of Derry City himself. John Hume was interviewed. Interestingly in 1918 Eoin MacNeill, Michael McDowell's ancestor was elected as a Sinn Féin MP/TD for the City of Derry. Derry City Council later swore allegiance to Dáil Eireann in 1920. Lets just say that vote wasn't respected now. I'll leave it at that.
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Jul 6, 2024 19:42:59 GMT
To be fairer to Campbell than he deservs, Derry was never very heavily gerrymandered. The issue wasn't the boundaries*, it was the existence of the business vote and the wildly unfair qalifying grounds to be an elector. *OK, the Fountain wasn't the most obvious area to add in to the old North ward, but it wasn't an absurd addition. I'd describe the lines as mildly gerrymandered and the point stands that it was elements besides the lines where the thumbs were really on the scale. Derry hardly Gerrymandered? In 1966, Derry had three wards: South Ward (8 seats, 11,185 voters), North Ward (8 seats, 6,476 voters), and Waterside Ward (4 seats, 5,549 voters). Ostensibly it looks that the North Ward was somewhat overrepresented. However, the South Ward was 90% Catholic, the North Ward 40% Catholic, and Waterside 34% Catholic. The Protestant voters constituted a potential 38% of the vote yet could win 60% of the seats. It’s a mixture of Gerrymandering and some malapportionment Yes, but that reflects housing segregation (and a refusal to build houses or to expand the city boundaries) not twisted lines. The old North ward wasn't shaped like an American congressional district, it was basically the current Foyleside DEA plus the Fountain estate. So I would say it was definitely malapportionment, but everything else about the situation was so fixed that they didn't need to gerrymander the lines that hard. |
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john07
Labour & Co-operative
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Post by john07 on Jul 7, 2024 0:44:07 GMT
Derry hardly Gerrymandered? In 1966, Derry had three wards: South Ward (8 seats, 11,185 voters), North Ward (8 seats, 6,476 voters), and Waterside Ward (4 seats, 5,549 voters). Ostensibly it looks that the North Ward was somewhat overrepresented. However, the South Ward was 90% Catholic, the North Ward 40% Catholic, and Waterside 34% Catholic. The Protestant voters constituted a potential 38% of the vote yet could win 60% of the seats. It’s a mixture of Gerrymandering and some malapportionment Yes, but that reflects housing segregation (and a refusal to build houses or to expand the city boundaries) not twisted lines. The old North ward wasn't shaped like an American congressional district, it was basically the current Foyleside DEA plus the Fountain estate. So I would say it was definitely malapportionment, but everything else about the situation was so fixed that they didn't need to gerrymander the lines that hard. In some respects it is almost reverse Gerrymandring. Rather than bending the boundaries to achieve the desired results, they were freezing and gettoising the population to maintain the status-quo. The outcome was much the same though. |
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obsie
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Post by obsie on Jul 7, 2024 2:47:06 GMT
Derry hardly Gerrymandered? In 1966, Derry had three wards: South Ward (8 seats, 11,185 voters), North Ward (8 seats, 6,476 voters), and Waterside Ward (4 seats, 5,549 voters). Ostensibly it looks that the North Ward was somewhat overrepresented. However, the South Ward was 90% Catholic, the North Ward 40% Catholic, and Waterside 34% Catholic. The Protestant voters constituted a potential 38% of the vote yet could win 60% of the seats. It’s a mixture of Gerrymandering and some malapportionment Yes, but that reflects housing segregation (and a refusal to build houses or to expand the city boundaries) not twisted lines. The old North ward wasn't shaped like an American congressional district, it was basically the current Foyleside DEA plus the Fountain estate. So I would say it was definitely malapportionment, but everything else about the situation was so fixed that they didn't need to gerrymander the lines that hard. You're assuming here that gerrymandering requires obviously weird lines - it doesn't. The strategy adopted in Derry (and in Enniskillen, Omagh, and Dungannon) was to create a ward that concentrated as many Catholics as possible so that Unionists could narrowly win the other ones using block votes. In Lurgan, where Catholics made up 45% of the population and predominated in the north of the town, you had a single 15-seat ward to ensure a 100% Unionist council. The rural district councils, where townlands were again grouped together to create votesinks, did tend to have more obviously weird boundaries. |
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Post by irish observer on Jul 7, 2024 8:52:20 GMT
I'm not sure if it was either Seamus Mallon or Austin Currie but their first election victory was a Council election in a ward against a Unionist Cllr who basically had said in public to one of them he would not assist Catholic voters and they defeated him. That's karma. I think that was Mallon who enjoyed doing that given he lived in a majority Unionist area in Armagh itself.
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nyx
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Post by nyx on Jul 7, 2024 9:42:52 GMT
The Unionists need to stop fucking about in seats like this I would suggest the opposite is required, a lot more babies needed to prevent this becoming the next FST/North Belfast Demographic shifts probably mean FST/North Belfast have permanently become safe nationalist seats whilst East Londonderry has taken their spot in the "marginal" category. |
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stb12
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Post by stb12 on Jul 7, 2024 17:13:06 GMT
Cara Hunter has been the victim of some pretty horrible online abuse for having stood here
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Smartie
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Post by Smartie on Jul 7, 2024 18:09:14 GMT
Cara Hunter has been the victim of some pretty horrible online abuse for having stood here She suffers some horrendous online abuse generally. SDLP were always the pre eminent nationalist grouping when I lived here but that was 20 years ago I left. I will need to check the constituency boundaries |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Jul 7, 2024 19:12:10 GMT
I would suggest the opposite is required, a lot more babies needed to prevent this becoming the next FST/North Belfast Demographic shifts probably mean FST/North Belfast have permanently become safe nationalist seats whilst East Londonderry has taken their spot in the "marginal" category. I think it's less demographic shifts and more differential turnout patterns. There hasn't been that much new housing in recent years in the west of the seat and Coleraine, Portrush and Portstewart are as unionist as ever. |
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