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Post by pembspolitic on Jun 28, 2024 15:30:02 GMT
Sure, but this time it has Maenclochog and Llanrhian wards as additions compared to the previous constituency won by Plaid in the 90s. And this area has and continues to shift demographically since Cynog first won the seat in 1987 i’d imagine (more people from outside Wales moving in, continued decline of Welsh etc.)
If we assume that labour come second, I think the interesting element will actually be who comes third. I think it could be close between Tory > Libdem > Reform (and the Greens have historically done well in Ceredigion for Wales standards, with a decent constituency of people for them in North Pembrokeshire too).
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johng
Labour
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Post by johng on Jun 28, 2024 15:46:44 GMT
Sure, but this time it has Maenclochog and Llanrhian wards as additions compared to the previous constituency won by Plaid in the 90s. And this area has and continues to shift demographically since Cynog first won the seat in 1987 i’d imagine (more people from outside Wales moving in, continued decline of Welsh etc.)
It's more than plausible here that Plaid could come (a decent) third in the Pembrokeshire part of the seat and still win overall.
Plus it's not like they aren't used to campaigning in areas like that. Ceredigion has plenty of recent, and less recent, English incomers.
Also Plaid first won in 1992. They came fourth in 1987.
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Post by pembspolitic on Jun 28, 2024 15:51:53 GMT
Oh I agree on all points! I suppose the only point i was making is that this seat is different from the seat they won in 1992.
Plaid could plausibly come second in the Preseli part of the constituency
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Post by greenhert on Jun 28, 2024 15:55:00 GMT
Oh I agree on all points! I suppose the only point i was making is that this seat is different from the seat they won in 1992. Plaid could plausibly come second in the Preseli part of the constituency Yes. As seen in the results for the now abolished Preseli Pembrokeshire constituency and the nationals for Mid & South Pembrokeshire they are considerably stronger in north Pembrokeshire (De Benfro) than south Pembrokeshire (Gogledd Benfro) |
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Post by pembspolitic on Jun 28, 2024 16:02:15 GMT
Oh I agree on all points! I suppose the only point i was making is that this seat is different from the seat they won in 1992. Plaid could plausibly come second in the Preseli part of the constituency Yes. As seen in the results for the now abolished Preseli Pembrokeshire constituency and the nationals for Mid & South Pembrokeshire they are considerably stronger in north Pembrokeshire (De Benfro) than south Pembrokeshire (Gogledd Benfro) Sure. That’s the Landsker for you! |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 28, 2024 16:05:46 GMT
Cardigan Preseli sounds like something you'd find in M&S. Can someone explain why Cardigan is not allowed? Could we have dual language constituency names - you hear them in declarations in Cymraeg and English but the seat still has the Welsh name only. However, that rule isn't really consistent, since Motngomeryshire should be Sir Meldwyn (IIRC). Cardigan bay is a beautiful place. Ben Lake was at Trinity College, Oxford (like me) and the staff were cockahoop when he won - he's a normal guy with a working class background if I understand it correctly. This is the only seat where I'd vote Plaid. It'll be interesting to see how Aberystwyth votes this time. I guess Labour but Plaid must pull a lot of votes out of it - is Wales Trinity St David uni in this seat at all or am I imagining things?
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johng
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Post by johng on Jun 28, 2024 16:15:43 GMT
Cardigan Preseli sounds like something you'd find in M&S. Can someone explain why Cardigan is not allowed? Could we have dual language constituency names - you hear them in declarations in Cymraeg and English but the seat still has the Welsh name only. However, that rule isn't really consistent, since Motngomeryshire should be Sir Meldwyn (IIRC). Cardigan bay is a beautiful place. Ben Lake was at Trinity College, Oxford (like me) and the staff were cockahoop when he won - he's a normal guy with a working class background if I understand it correctly. This is the only seat where I'd vote Plaid. It'll be interesting to see how Aberystwyth votes this time. I guess Labour but Plaid must pull a lot of votes out of it - is Wales Trinity St David uni in this seat at all or am I imagining things? I think Welsh names should be used wherever reasonably possible. The boundary commission always has Welsh names in areas where Welsh is spoken by the majority/ almost the majority of residents.
That's why we have Ynys Mon, Ceredigion and Caerfyrddin as English names in those areas, but Wrexham (not Wrecsam) and Rhymney (not Rhymni) in more English speaking areas.
It isn't always consistent though. Aberavon has become Aberafan with the new boundaries. The Swansea Valley is Cwm Tawe, whilst the rest of that seat's name is in English. I have no idea why this is the case.
Oh I agree on all points! I suppose the only point i was making is that this seat is different from the seat they won in 1992. Plaid could plausibly come second in the Preseli part of the constituency Yes. As seen in the results for the now abolished Preseli Pembrokeshire constituency and the nationals for Mid & South Pembrokeshire they are considerably stronger in north Pembrokeshire (De Benfro) than south Pembrokeshire (Gogledd Benfro) Might want to check those Welsh translations.
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Jun 28, 2024 16:22:27 GMT
Also the seat would never be called Cardigan. Cardiganshire possibly. But not Cardigan (town on the southern border, population approx 4000).
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 28, 2024 16:23:25 GMT
Also the seat would never be called Cardigan. Cardiganshire possibly. But not Cardigan (town on the southern border, population approx 4000). Why not? It used to be called that IIRC. And surely, you know I'm referring to the County of Cardigan rather than the poxy town of the same name in these parts. |
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Jun 28, 2024 16:38:50 GMT
It was Cardiganshire.
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johng
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Post by johng on Jun 28, 2024 16:40:02 GMT
Also the seat would never be called Cardigan. Cardiganshire possibly. But not Cardigan (town on the southern border, population approx 4000). Why not? It used to be called that IIRC. And surely, you know I'm referring to the County of Cardigan rather than the poxy town of the same name in these parts.
It was definitely Cardiganshire.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 28, 2024 16:43:45 GMT
Why not? It used to be called that IIRC. And surely, you know I'm referring to the County of Cardigan rather than the poxy town of the same name in these parts.
It was definitely Cardiganshire.
I stand corrected. I thought it was like Monmouth being named after the county rather than a town. Thanks for pointing that out john07. |
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Post by Penddu on Jun 28, 2024 17:08:04 GMT
Oh I agree on all points! I suppose the only point i was making is that this seat is different from the seat they won in 1992. Plaid could plausibly come second in the Preseli part of the constituency Yes. As seen in the results for the now abolished Preseli Pembrokeshire constituency and the nationals for Mid & South Pembrokeshire they are considerably stronger in north Pembrokeshire (De Benfro) than south Pembrokeshire (Gogledd Benfro) North = Gogledd South = De |
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Post by pembspolitic on Jun 28, 2024 17:10:42 GMT
Cardigan Preseli sounds like something you'd find in M&S. Can someone explain why Cardigan is not allowed? Could we have dual language constituency names - you hear them in declarations in Cymraeg and English but the seat still has the Welsh name only. However, that rule isn't really consistent, since Motngomeryshire should be Sir Meldwyn (IIRC). Cardigan bay is a beautiful place. Ben Lake was at Trinity College, Oxford (like me) and the staff were cockahoop when he won - he's a normal guy with a working class background if I understand it correctly. This is the only seat where I'd vote Plaid. It'll be interesting to see how Aberystwyth votes this time. I guess Labour but Plaid must pull a lot of votes out of it - is Wales Trinity St David uni in this seat at all or am I imagining things? Aberyswtwyth is varied in terms of voting. It has quite a high floor for plaid (good solid base who turn out for Town Council/Council elections), but also a definite ceiling - there are large portions of an Univeristy town like this which would never vote for PC i’d imagine. I think that labour could do well in Aber as the LibDem vote unravells in Ceredigion. I remember in Corbyn’s 2017 Labour did very well in places like Penparcau (Social Housing/Ex-Council estates on the edge of town). University of South Wales Trinity St David’s is in Carmarthen. But they have a Campus in Lampeter (in this constituency). |
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Post by Deleted on Jun 28, 2024 17:12:27 GMT
Cardigan Preseli sounds like something you'd find in M&S. Can someone explain why Cardigan is not allowed? Could we have dual language constituency names - you hear them in declarations in Cymraeg and English but the seat still has the Welsh name only. However, that rule isn't really consistent, since Motngomeryshire should be Sir Meldwyn (IIRC). Cardigan bay is a beautiful place. Ben Lake was at Trinity College, Oxford (like me) and the staff were cockahoop when he won - he's a normal guy with a working class background if I understand it correctly. This is the only seat where I'd vote Plaid. It'll be interesting to see how Aberystwyth votes this time. I guess Labour but Plaid must pull a lot of votes out of it - is Wales Trinity St David uni in this seat at all or am I imagining things? Aberyswtwyth is varied in terms of voting. It has quite a high floor for plaid (good solid base who turn out for Town Council/Council elections), but also a definite ceiling - there are large portions of an Univeristy town like this which would never vote for PC i’d imagine. I think that labour could do well in Aber as the LibDem vote unravells in Ceredigion. I remember in Corbyn’s 2017 Labour did very well in places like Penparcau (Social Housing/Ex-Council estates on the edge of town). University of South Wales Trinity St David’s is in Carmarthen. But they have a Campus in Lampeter (in this constituency). Is this the Greens' best Welsh seat? My gut tells me that would be Cardiff Central, but the uni her could help them do well. Or do they all vote for LAB or PC? |
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Post by gwynthegriff on Jun 28, 2024 17:16:38 GMT
Aberyswtwyth is varied in terms of voting. It has quite a high floor for plaid (good solid base who turn out for Town Council/Council elections), but also a definite ceiling - there are large portions of an Univeristy town like this which would never vote for PC i’d imagine. I think that labour could do well in Aber as the LibDem vote unravells in Ceredigion. I remember in Corbyn’s 2017 Labour did very well in places like Penparcau (Social Housing/Ex-Council estates on the edge of town). University of South Wales Trinity St David’s is in Carmarthen. But they have a Campus in Lampeter (in this constituency). My gut tells me that would be Cardiff Central, but the uni her could help them do well. Or do they all vote for LAB or PC? Between 1992 and 1997 Cynog Dafis represented this constituency as a joint PC-Green MP. |
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Post by Deleted on Jun 28, 2024 17:17:51 GMT
Could this be the Greens' Welsh seat? My gut tells me that would be Cardiff Central, but the uni her could help them do well. Or do they all vote for LAB or PC? Between 1992 and 1997 Cynog Dafis represented this constituency as a joint PC-Green MP. Fascinating. I think that had slipped my mind and the last time I studied the 1992 election was before 2015 when I thought we'd get John Major 2.0 (and we did). |
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Jun 28, 2024 17:21:38 GMT
Could this be the Greens' Welsh seat? My gut tells me that would be Cardiff Central, but the uni her could help them do well. Or do they all vote for LAB or PC? Between 1992 and 1997 Cynog Dafis represented this constituency as a joint PC-Green MP. Slightly different boundaries but yes he was definitely a “PC -Green” MP not a Plaid MP. IIRC the green candidates stood down in five seats and Plaid stood down in Monmouthshire. |
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Jun 28, 2024 17:23:18 GMT
I think that labour could do well in Aber as the LibDem vote unravells in Ceredigion. I remember in Corbyn’s 2017 Labour did very well in places like Penparcau (Social Housing/Ex-Council estates on the edge of town). Aberystwyth has Labour potential, however if we assume Labour win next week, how likely are students to vote for the encumbent government on mass. Aber (and I say this as a former student who campaigned there 2003-06) is interesting if you look at the location of the halls and how the town itself is dissected by ward bounties. There’s no one student ward, you need to win the locals over too (and that’s before considering the low student turnout). Could this be the Greens' Welsh seat? My gut tells me that would be Cardiff Central, but the uni her could help them do well. Or do they all vote for LAB or PC? Check the Cardiff East and Cardiff Central Almanac threads. Central is gone. Best for the Greens in Wales would be East or at a push North although both would have problem wards. Most students are now in South which absolutely wouldn’t be the place to target if you were in Green HQ. |
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Post by gwynthegriff on Jun 28, 2024 17:24:27 GMT
Yes. As seen in the results for the now abolished Preseli Pembrokeshire constituency and the nationals for Mid & South Pembrokeshire they are considerably stronger in north Pembrokeshire (De Benfro) than south Pembrokeshire (Gogledd Benfro) Sure. That’s the Landsker for you! Except that he's got north and south the wrong way round.  But, yes, the Landsker effect is indeed still very marked. |
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